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Blog: Econbrowser
On the rise: Figure 1: Real average earnings for production and non-supervisory workers, CPI deflated (blue), chained CPI deflated (tan), both in 2023$. Chained CPI seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 (in logs). Source: BLS via FRED and author's calculations. It's appropriate to ask what's happening to the median wage. I don't have the levels, […]
Blog: Econbrowser
With the PPI release, and Cleveland Fed PCE nowcast as of today: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI (pink), services supercore (light green), PPI core (red), and PCE core (green), per Eeckhout (2023), T=12, a=4. August observation for PCE deflator is nowcast as of 9/12/2024 (yoy measure). […]
Blog: Econbrowser
From the CPI release: Figure 1: CPI – food at home (blue), ERS forecast as of January (red triangle), ERS forecast as of August (light blue square), Chained CPI – food at home (light green), all normalized to 2020M01=1.00. Chained food at home CPI component seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 (in logs). Source: BLS, […]
Blog: Econbrowser
EJ Antoni/Heritage presents this picture which should scare the beejeebus out of us. Source: EJ Antoni/X. I can imagine Secretary Yellen trying to "strongarm" Russians trying to evade sanctions. I can imagine Secretary Yellen strongarming tax evaders. I must confess I can't imagine Yellen "strongarming" Jerome Powell. I'd like to know where Dr. Antoni has […]
Blog: Econbrowser
Article today on whether it matters if dis-inversion occurs because short rates fall, or long rates rise. Two years ago, the inversion of the yield curve—shorter-dated Treasurys yielding more than longer-dated bonds—was taken by investors as a surefire sign of recession. Now Wall Street worriers have a new concern: The yield curve is back to normal, […]
Blog: Econbrowser
In real dollars: Figure 1: Net petroleum balance, in bn.Ch2017$ (black). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, NBER, and author's calculations.
Blog: Econbrowser
With August CPI release, we have core, chained core, supercore, and services supercore (via P. Skrzypczynski). PPI comes tomorrow. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI (pink), services supercore (light green), PPI core (red), and PCE core (green), per Eeckhout (2023), T=12, a=4. Source: BLS, BEA, Pawel Skrzypczynski, […]
Blog: Econbrowser
As recorded by EIA. Near month futures for WTI are $66.1; futures for delivery in March are $64.5 (i.e., oil futures are in backwardation). This suggests that market expectations are for declines in oil prices, and hence in gasoline prices.
Blog: Econbrowser
From PredictIt, just one hour into the debate: Trump is dark blue, Harris is light blue.
Blog: Econbrowser
Mike Knetter and I joined Lisa Pugh for a conversation yesterday about the economy and the election. Here's the video: Topics: STATE OF THE ECONOMY Your grade on the WI economy currently voter disconnect on status of economy JOBS NUMBERS Friday's jobs numbers – what does it mean/what's next Impact of numbers on […]
Blog: Econbrowser
GDPNow Q3 growth nowcast now up to 2.5%, from 2.1%. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Survey of Professional Forecasters August median forecast (tan), GDPNow of 9/9 (blue square) and of 9/4 (blue open square), NY Fed (red triangle), St. Louis Fed (light green inverted triangle), Goldman Sachs (teal circle), all in bn.Ch.2017$. Nowcasts are as […]
Blog: Econbrowser
From Polymarket, accessed 4pm CT today: So low probability…on the other hand, this is a bunch of non-American residents betting on a US economic event. For comparison, Polymarket (which cannot operate in the US) indicates 52-46 Trump/Harris, while PredictIt (which can operate in the US) rates 52-52. Polymarket has consistently predicted a higher likelihood of […]
Blog: Econbrowser
Apologies to Donald Rumsfeld. There is some uncertainty regarding what parts of presidential proposals will be implemented, especially in light of the necessity for Congressional approval. However, one area where legislative approval is not required: tariffs In the table below, see the items outlined in the red box. Source: Alec Phillips, David Mericle and Tim […]
Blog: Econbrowser
July was down, and we won't have August numbers until September 20th (maybe a day earlier from DWD). Using official nationwide nonfarm payroll employment, Wisconsin employment is growing. Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), forecast based on US NFP (red) and +/- 1 standard error band (gray lines), and Department of Revenue May […]
Blog: Econbrowser
Federal debt held by the public as a share of GDP: Figure 1: Federal debt held by public, as share of GDP (blue). Source: BEA, Treasury via FRED.