This paper provides an overview of the European Commission's evaluation of EU trade policy. It discusses the importance of transparent policy evaluation for improving the functioning of trade policy, informing EU co-legislators and the general public to ensure accountability. It discusses specificities of evaluations in the field of trade policy, the evaluation cycle, and the types of impacts studied. The methodology used in evaluations is outlined and discussed. Overall, the paper provides insights into how the European Commission uses evaluation tools to inform EU trade policy decision making.
The present report presents a conceptual assessment model or framework for policy relevant analysis of low carbon transitions. The aim of the study is not to present specific guidelines for how to design assessments of low carbon transitions, but rather to give food for thought on aspects that should be regarded in the design process. The exact design would then depend on the purpose of the assessment, the scope and priorities set for the assessment, and the resources (personal and financial) available for the assessments.We find that there are at least three elements of an assessment model that are important to provide policy relevant knowledge: i) monitoring, ii) policy evaluation, and iii) domain knowledge building processes, including research. Monitoring is here understood as a process that is intended to inform whether society is on track on meeting set-up political priorities. Policy evaluation concentrates on the effects of low carbon transition policies and effects of other policies. Domain knowledge building through research and other processes is important both for identifying relevant assessment criteria and designing monitoring systems, as well as for policy evaluations. A domain knowledge base can include knowledge of i) drivers and barriers for low carbon transitions, ii) the sustainability of various technologies, policies and practices, iii) previous policy experiences, and iv) contextual knowledge of the market, actors, mitigation technologies and pathways, etc. in various sectors. This information and background knowledge will help inform how policies can be redesigned for overcoming the barriers and enable change in various contexts while safeguarding that the changes are not in conflict with other key societal goals and sustainability aspects. Monitoring can cover direct outcomes such as greenhouse gas emissions or diffusion of low carbon technologies. But with a long-term transitions perspective it is also important to look into the preparedness for change with regard to existence of factors such as visions and expectations, knowledge, feasible policies and policy instruments (taking into account stringency as well as coverage and policy coherence), societal norms, innovation networks, or the readiness of key technologies.Evaluation of policies can in turn cover several aspects beyond policy relevance and effectiveness including synergies and conflicts with other objectives. It could also evaluate the consistency of targets with overarching objectives as well as specific strategies, policy instruments or policy packages. In the conceptual assessment model, policy adjustments are expected to be informed by the monitoring process regarding what is needed and by policy evaluation with regard to what works. Together these processes can inform on how both the stringency and the design of policies could be developed over time.
This report analyses the technical opportunities for a complete decarbonisation of the basic material industry in Sweden by 2050. From this assessment, the report discusses policy implications for the industry sector given the overall framework set by the ongoing international climate negotiations. Relying on current production systems and applying "end-of-pipe" solutions will be insufficient to reduce emissions below the estimates produced by most climate economic modeling. Decarbonising the industrial sectors while maintaining production volumes requires a major effort to develop, introduce and invest in novel process designs that currently are not available on the market. For achieving this, our analysis points to the need for complementing the current main climate policy approach of pricing the emissions via the EU ETS with a stronger policy for technical change. The support needs to include funding for RD&D but also for market development support in a broad sense. So far, this approach has worked well in the renewable energy sector through the use of various support schemes. The report outlines a technology strategy for industry that identifies a set of broad technological platforms and infrastructure needs such as electrowinning, black liquor gasification, biomass based bulk chemicals, magnesium based cement, application of industrial CCS e.t.c., that all are in need of targeted support. A road map for creating a common vision between government, industry and civil society is a crucial first step. The overall purpose of a roadmap may be to establish priorities on RD&D, coordinate various actors, create networks and institutions for knowledge sharing, and map possible future technology and policy pathways.
This paper examines policy processes surrounding the rise and fall of the proposed EU-wide policy instrument designed to help achieve EU´s renewable energy targets – the trading of Guarantees of Origin (GO). It discusses its origins and examines factors in the policy processes over time leading first to its development and then to its rejection. A first analysis looks at the near-term policy-making process before and after the proposal on GO trading in January 2008, focusing on the European law-making institutions and influences of interest groups and member state governments. It then takes a step back and looks over a longer time period at how competing policy frames have shaped the trading debate. Results show how a strong internal market frame acted as a primary driving force in the Commission to promote the GO trading instrument. The rejection of the GO trading proposal in the Council and Parliament can be largely attributed to the lack of a strong lobby in favour of GO, the accumulated experience with and institutionalisation of national RES support policies such as feed-in tariffs, and growing general political concerns for supply security and competitiveness. The framing analysis show that the rise and fall of GO trading embodies a classic conflict between the internal market and the member states' wish to protect national interests.
Who can pick a winner? Since 1974, various types of targeted support have at different times been directed at the development of the heat pump market in Sweden – which in the following decades oscillated violently between soaring sales and collapse. Eventually, however, small heat pumps for space heating of residential buildings have in recent years securely established themselves as a mature and competitive technology within the Swedish energy system. This presentation portrays the events and actors that defined the formation and transformation processes of the heat pump market segment in Sweden, extracting pieces of experience that contribute to our improved understanding of how combinations of policy instruments, their application and termination, can affect whether a technology is perceived and received by the market as a handsome swan-to-be or no more than a simple duckling. Despite failing policies and markets, and despite continuously changing drivers in national energy policy, this technology has now lived up to the expectations of its proponents of the 1970s. One part of the explanation is found in the unique composition of the Swedish electricity supply and energy mix. Another is the perseverance of important key actors. A third part lies within the learning process that has taken place on the policy-making arena. Observations are made concerning the prospects for managing technical change. The evolution may be seen as an uncoordinated transition management process over 25-30 years. A coordinated effort might have produced better resluts, but it is not clear whether it could have been sustained over such a long time period in changing organisational and political contexts. A number of evaluations of policy instruments used in efforts to manage heat pump development have been performed along the way. These provide important information about the course of transpired events. But it is noted that such documents are permeated by the context in which they were written. Their assupmtions and results need to be read and interpreted accordingly.
Three experiments are reported in which the effects of fatigue are studied during the reading of texts presented by means of a videotex system or by means of print on paper. For both these presentations the viewers read texts for a period of 2 h. The reading task was interrupted six times for tests of speed and accuracy in scanning a matrix of letters for given target letters, speed and accuracy in an auditory-motor reaction time task, and a free recall test of the information presented immediately prior to each test session. The three experiments differed with respect to task demands. Experiment I was less demanding than Experiment 2, which in its turn was less demanding than Experiment 3. It was predicted that those viewers who read the texts presented on videotex would show more dramatic effects than the viewers who read texts under more regular print-on-paper conditions. It was also predicted that these effects would be more pronounced for more demanding tasks. The results, however, demonstrated only marginal effects of fatigue. The effects of fatigue were somewhat more pronounced in the videotex group.
This paper discusses generally the potential effects of genetic markers on individual differences in cognitive performance. Research on the role of two genetic markers related to the immune system—complement factor C3 and haptoglobin—and one genetic marker—apolipoprotein E (ApoE)—and the interaction with environmental conditions of cognitive support at memory encoding and retrieval are discussed in particular. Data from an ongoing longitudinal study are used to illustrate that the two markers of the immune system are strongly associated with performance in episodic memory tasks, although there is no association to semantic memory. Cross-sectional data reveal a relatively weak association between apolipoprotein E and memory performance. Preliminary analyses of longitudinal data reveal a somewhat stronger association between this genetic marker and some aspects of episodic memory performance.
The need for low-carbon transitions in the industrial sector is increasingly recognised by governments and industry. However, radical pathways for reaching near-zero emissions in the energy intensive basic materials industry are still relatively unexplored. Most studies focus on mitigation options that lead to marginal emission reductions, e.g., energy and materials efficiency improvements and some fuel switching, or they rely on carbon capture and storage that allows continued use of existing processes and feedstock. In light of the vast future potential for primary renewable electricity we explore as a what-if thought-experiment the implications of electrifying a stable basic materials production in the EU. A quantitative technical scenario analysis of potential future electricity demand in the production of the most energy and carbon intensive basic materials, i.e., steel, cement, glass, lime, olefins, chlorine and ammonia, is presented for EU28. Production of these seven basic materials resulted in directly and indirectly energy related CO2 emissions of about 457 Mton in 2010, equivalent to almost 13 % of all energy related GHG in EU28. Their production in 2010 required 125 TWh of electricity and 1432 TWh of fossil fuels and feedstock. A complete shift to electricity would result in an electricity demand of 1600 TWh, about 1100 TWh of which would be for producing hydrogen and hydrocarbon feedstock. We assume closed loops for carbon dioxide through recovery from waste incineration and biogenic sources. With increased materials efficiency and some share of bio-based materials and biofuels the electricity demand can be much lower. Our analysis shows that near-zero emissions could in principle be reached without relying on CCS (except for limestone related emissions) and suggests that a circular economy powered by renewable electricity may indeed be possible, at least from an energy resource and technology point of view.
Many studies identify energy efficiency as the most important and least costly option for reducing CO2-emissions while at the same time contributing to other policy objectives. The main challenge seems to be how to design, implement and evaluate policy to ensure that these opportunities are captured and policy perceived as legitimate. There is often a gap between rhetoric or broadly stated objectives in policy development and the narrow focus on verifying additional savings in evaluation. Ancillary benefits and costs are often overlooked and the primary criteria for impact evaluations are whether policies deliver additional and cost-effective savings. In practice, however, such impact evaluations are fraught with fundamental methodological difficulties and uncertainty. Double counting, spillover, free rider and rebound effects are real and recognised factors that complicate evaluation. This has been experienced in the development of a harmonised calculation model as stipulated by the Energy Services Directive where a fair amount of attention has been given to such factors. In the mean time the more challenging, yet nonbinding, 20 percent target of the EU Energy Efficiency Action Plan is stressing a need for new policy implementation. The question then becomes: how can the legitimate demands for policy to deliver additional savings be realistically addressed in practice and balanced against broad and long-term objectives? To answer this question, we provide an overview and assessment of the issues, opportunities, and correction factors for energy efficiency policy design and evaluation. We challenge the preoccupation with verifying countable savings and argue that it can be counterproductive. What counts are policy frameworks that can unleash and accelerate energy efficiency across all sectors in order to reach levels that are commensurate with broader energy and climate policy goals. ; Godkänd; 2011; 20120824 (patriks)
Many studies identify energy efficiency as the most important and least costly option for reducing CO2-emissions while at the same time contributing to other policy objectives. The main challenge seems to be how to design, implement and evaluate policy to ensure that these opportunities are captured and policy perceived as legitimate. There is often a gap between rhetoric or broadly stated objectives in policy development and the narrow focus on verifying additional savings in evaluation. Ancillary benefits and costs are often overlooked and the primary criteria for impact evaluations are whether policies deliver additional and cost-effective savings. In practice, however, such impact evaluations are fraught with fundamental methodological difficulties and uncertainty. Double counting, spill-over, free rider and rebound effects are real and recognised factors that complicate evaluation. This has been experienced in the development of a harmonised calculation model as stipulated by the Energy Services Directive where a fair amount of attention has been given to such factors. In the mean time the more challenging, yet non-binding, 20 percent target of the EU Energy Efficiency Action Plan is stressing a need for new policy implementation. The question then becomes: how can the legitimate demands for policy to deliver additional savings be realistically addressed in practice and balanced against broad and long-term objectives? To answer this question, we provide an overview and assessment of the issues, opportunities, and correction factors for energy efficiency policy design and evaluation. We challenge the preoccupation with verifying countable savings and argue that it can be counterproductive. What counts are policy frameworks that can unleash and accelerate energy efficiency across all sectors in order to reach levels that are commensurate with broader energy and climate policy goals.
