Suchergebnisse

Three mathematical growth models were analyzed for their utility in explaining the growth in black legislators. All elections involving black candidates in the 18 largest United States cities between 1940 & 1975 constituted the data set. Over time the proportion of black versus white candidates has declined while the number of noncontests in elections with blacks has risen. Black representative growth is leveling off, with the trend most closely approximating a logistic curve. Both linear & log-linear regression also offer good fits to the data. With regard to the seat-vote relationship, black candidates commonly achieve overwhelming victory margins & benefit from the seat-vote ratio. Black representation is proportionally greater than black electoral support. While blacks suffer from a negative deviation of sets versus votes for all elections, when only black-white contests are considered, this disparity disappears. The swing ratio is small because it takes a large shift in votes in most inner-city districts to effect a change in representation. 2 Tables, 5 Figures. AA.

Territory is central to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Borders and control of lands claimed by both Azerbaijan and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic have shifted dramatically since the end of the Soviet Union. Following up on a 2011 survey, we again asked a representative sample of Karabakhis in February 2020 about their territorial aspirations and the possibility of surrendering some lands to Azerbaijan. The results are somewhat contradictory. While about half of the sample were willing to compromise on territory with Azerbaijan - in the expectation of a more permanent and peaceful settlement to the conflict - a firm majority (85%) rejected any return to the smaller lands of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) of Soviet times. This result is highly consistent with the 2011 data. Even more respondents than in 2011 aspired to extend Nagorno-Karabakh's territory to encompass all historical Armenian lands, a patently unrealistic option. While Karabakhi attitudes remained hardened against territorial compromise, the 2020 war changed the facts on the ground and reduced the Republic's control to an area even smaller than the NKAO.

Developing reliable social scientific knowledge about public opinion in de facto states is a challenging exercise. Since 2008 we cooperated with a variety of research partners to organize a series of social scientific surveys in all four de facto states in the post-Soviet region, organizing an initial round of surveys in 2010-2011 and a follow-up round in December 2014. In this contribution we summarize the responses by declared nationality to two questions asked in 2010-11 and then again in 2013-2014: preferred future status and trust in the president. We show the results for nationalities because these values tend to be most distinctive and indicate some of the key divides in the de facto states.

South Ossetia was the main site of the August 2008 war between Georgian military forces, local South Ossetian forces, and the Russian military. Soon thereafter, the Russian Federation recognized the territory as a state, the South Ossetian Republic. This article reviews the contending scripts used to understand South Ossetia and the basis of its claim to be a state. Presenting the results of a public opinion survey of Ossetians living in the territory in late 2010, we discuss the trust in local institutions and leadership, ethnic Ossetian attitudes toward other groups, return and property, as well as relations with Russia and Georgia. Adapted from the source document.

The article focuses on the trends that are transforming Moscow into a new world city, manifested in its new role in global communication networks, economic restructuring, and in particular the rapid development of service economy and especially of banking and other business services. Like other world cities, the transformation of Moscow from a Soviet to a world city accelerates social polarisation and increases contrasts between the historical centre and most other parts of the urban space. The authors consider the contemporary strategies of urban management and the relationship between the interests of the state, municipal authorities, private capital, and the majority of Moscovites. Special attention is paid to an analysis of the location of new activities and to the patterns of their spatial combinations. They are explained by historical factors and the heritage of socialist urban planning in the capital.