Suchergebnisse

Este ensayo argumenta que el auge reciente de las economías latinoamericanas se explica por la coincidencia de dos factores externos que no se daban simultáneamente desde los años 1970: buenos precios de materias primas (de hidrocarburos y productos mineros, más que agrícolas) y condiciones de financiamiento externo excepcionales. En este último caso, la característica sobresaliente ha sido la entrada masiva de capital durante dos períodos de "exuberancia" en los mercados financieros internacionales (entre mediados de 2004 y abril de 2006, y entre mediados de 2006 y mediados del 2007), particularmente en el segundo. Señala, además, la importancia de generalizar y consolidar las dos grandes innovaciones de la política macroeconómica latinoamericana de los últimos años, que se complementan e

This paper argues that the recent boom in the Latin American economies can be explained by the conjunction of two external factors not found together since the 1970s: strong commodity prices (more so for hydrocarbons and mining products than for agricultural commodities) and exceptional external financing conditions. Concerning the latter, the key development was the massive influx of capital during two periods of "exuberance" in international financial markets (between mid-2004 and April 2006, and between mid-2006 and mid-2007), particularly the second. It also argues for the importance of spreading and consolidating Latin America's two great (and complementary) macroeconomic policy innovations of recent years: countercyclical fiscal management (still confined to just a few countries) and active intervention in currency markets. Such intervention needs to be based on a growing recognition that the real exchange rate ought to be an explicit goal of macroeconomic policy. (CEPAL Rev/GIGA)

Se elabora un marco de políticas para países en desarrollo, que consiste en un uso activo de políticas macroeconómicas contracíclicas (de tipo de cambio, monetarias y fiscales), junto con técnicas de manejo de capitales (regulaciones de la cuenta de capitales y reglas prudenciales que incorporen dimensiones macroeconómicas). También se explora el rol de las instituciones financieras internacionales en facilitar a los países en desarrollo el uso de políticas macroeconómicas contra-cíclicas.

This paper explores the complementary use of two instruments to manage capital-account volatility in developing countries: capital-account regulations and counter-cyclical prudential regulation of domestic financial intermediaries. Capitalaccount regulations can provide useful instruments in terms of both improving debt profiles and facilitating the adoption of (possibly temporary) counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies. Prudential regulation and supervision should take into account not only the microeconomic risks, but also the macroeconomic risks associated with boom-bust cycles. It should thus introduce counter-cyclical elements into prudential regulation and supervision, together with strict rules to prevent currency mismatches and reduce maturity mismatches. These instruments should be seen as a complement to counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies and, certainly, neither of them can nullify the risks that pro-cyclical macroeconomic policies may generate. – cycles ; capital flows ; prudential regulation ; counter-cyclical policies

Last year's recovery and hopes that a new growth cycle had begun in Latin America and the Caribbean were cut short by the sharp slowdown in the world's economy in 2001. Regional output (GDP) grew barely 0.5% and the prospects for growth in 2002 aren't very encouraging: 1.1%. Macroeconomic results under these adverse conditions are noteworthy, although a succession of "stop-go" cycles over the past decade have led to low long-term growth that is well below the level necessary to reduce high unemployment and improve the precarious conditions in which most of the population lives. (ECLAC Notes/DÜI)