Suchergebnisse

The predominantly Shi'ite Hazara minority in Afghanistan has historically been a deprived and poorly treated cluster. During the theocratic rule of the Taliban (1996-2001), they were subjected to an unprecedented degree of violence and persecution. However, since the US-led NATO intervention a decade ago their situation has improved substantially. They have succeeded in securing a sizable share in the political and economic life of Afghanistan in the context of the growth of political pluralism and civil society. This is an important outcome of the international involvement in post-Taliban Afghanistan, despite all the problems and uncertainties that the country continues to face. Even if Afghanistan's national circumstances change dramatically in the wake of troop withdrawal by the USA and its allies by the end of 2014, the Hazaras are now well positioned to be able to defend their rights and interests, and to avoid re-living their bitter historical experiences.

The war against terror in Afghanistan has indeed been complex and multi-dimensional. On the one hand the situation in Afghanistan demanded it, not only to eliminate an important source of international terrorism but also to help the Afghan people to liberate themselves from the brutal, medievalist rule of the Taliban and their foreign supporters. This may well prove to be one of the most positive outcomes of the US-led military intervention. On the other hand, there is a danger that this outcome may not be realised if those who have waged the war become too intoxicated by their victory and decide to go back to their old ways to reclaim the pre-11 September world order. It would be disastrous if they fail to do what it takes to help the Afghans to establish a lasting, stable, political order and rebuild their country, and to deal with the order root causes of terrorism beyond the Afghan borders. The most important of these causes are: Israel's continued repressive occupation of Palestinian lands, the lack of democratisation in the Arab world, and the suffering of the Iraqi people because of the open-ended UN sanctions-causes which have enabled someone like Bin Laden to strike a common cord with many in the Arab and Muslim worlds-as well as Pakistan's potentially explosive domestic situation and policy complications over the disputed territory of Kashmir. These issues require political, not military solutions. Any attempt by the US to use its military prowess beyond Afghanistan could unleash forces which might prove perilously difficult to control.

The pro-democracy Arab popular uprisings have been spontaneous, but perhaps not all that unpredictable. They have come against the backdrop of a growing gulf between the rulers and the ruled, political repression, social and economic inequalities, demographic changes, unemployment and foreign policy debacles. Although the uprisings began in Tunisia, it is the case of Egypt that illustrates the situation more compellingly and the impact that it has had on the rest of the Arab world. It is not clear at this stage what will be the ultimate outcome. But what can be said with certainty is that the Arab peoples have set out on a long journey in pursuit of genuine self-determination. The journey will be arduous and unsettling for the Arabs and outsiders, but this has to be treated as part of a transition from a dictatorial past to a politically pluralist future.

The pro-democracy Arab popular uprisings have been spontaneous, but perhaps not all that unpredictable. They have come against the backdrop of a growing gulf between the rulers and the ruled, political repression, social and economic inequalities, demographic changes, unemployment and foreign policy debacles. Although the uprisings began in Tunisia, it is the case of Egypt that illustrates the situation more compellingly and the impact that it has had on the rest of the Arab world. It is not clear at this stage what will be the ultimate outcome. But what can be said with certainty is that the Arab peoples have set out on a long journey in pursuit of genuine self-determination. The journey will be arduous and unsettling for the Arabs and outsiders, but this has to be treated as part of a transition from a dictatorial past to a politically pluralist future.

Following more than a decade of NATO's intervention in Afghanistan, it is often argued that the UN, alongside its international partners and the Afghan government, has failed to facilitate good governance and a stable democratic political order. In charting the evolving UN role in 'democratizing' Afghanistan, this article analyses why this is so. The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), facing considerable historical and institutional constraints, has had neither the will nor the capacity to implement its ambitious democratization mandate. Instead of aiming for a system of governance along 'Western' lines, it should focus primarily on promoting an appropriate, institutionalized, workable political order, regional consensus, and national reconciliation as the necessary foundations for bringing peace and stability to the country.

The predominantly Shi'ite Hazara minority in Afghanistan has historically been a deprived and poorly treated cluster. During the theocratic rule of the Taliban (1996-2001), they were subjected to an unprecedented degree of violence and persecution. However, since the US-led NATO intervention a decade ago their situation has improved substantially. They have succeeded in securing a sizable share in the political and economic life of Afghanistan in the context of the growth of political pluralism and civil society. This is an important outcome of the international involvement in post-Taliban Afghanistan, despite all the problems and uncertainties that the country continues to face. Even if Afghanistan's national circumstances change dramatically in the wake of troop withdrawal by the USA and its allies by the end of 2014, the Hazaras are now well positioned to be able to defend their rights and interests, and to avoid re-living their bitter historical experiences.

Afghanistan's geostrategic potential is hampered by domestic weakness, regional tensions and major-power competition. (Survival / SWP)