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Physical science and technology (engineering) are fundamentally linked by the possibility of predictions: science tests itself and grows by making and checking predictions; technology relies on predictions and thus furthers the growth of the associated science. The political science of international relations is similarly associated with the "technology" of policy making by governments and elites: the growth of the science is dependent upon its applicability for useful policy making. This book explores the applicability of predictability — based upon dynamical modeling, and the related concepts of chaos and complexity — to the understanding of international relations, with the hope that this will lead to insights into policy making and hence the growth of the science of international relations

This study considers the problem of suicide terrorism, government counterterror responses, and the mobilization of recruits in support of the contending parties. A model is developed that enables predictions as to what factors should be emphasized or de-emphasized by the forces protecting society. The article presents a linear mathematical analysis of the logical interrelationships involved in the confrontation and embeds the study within the framework of previous mathematical and empirical work on the subject. It is concluded that governments should avoid inflicting collateral damage on the general population in counterterrorist activities and should pursue policies (both in counterterrorist operations and otherwise) that contribute to the political quiescence of the populace.

We present numerical results from a nonlinear dynamical model with discrete time that simulates the implications of ballistic missile defense systems (SDI) on the arms race between the two superpowers. As dynamical variables we introduce the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), antiballistic missile systems (ABMs) and anti-ABM systems such as antisatellite weapons (ASAT) of each of the two sides. The time evolution of these systems (arms race) is simulated numerically under various parameter assumptions (scenarios). The a priori unpredictability of human decisions is simulated through random fluctuations of the buildup parameters. The results of our idealized model indicate that for most parameter combinations, the introduction of SDI systems leads to an extension of the offensive arms race rather than a transition to a defense-dominated strategic configuration. A reduction in the number of offensive weapons, that is, an approach to a defense-dominated strategy, was observed if either the number of reentry vehicles per ICBM (MIRV) is limited to much smaller values than presently realized or if the accuracy of offensive weapons is significantly reduced. For the case of a strongly accelerated arms buildup (either offensive or defensive), we observe a loss of stability of the solutions that we interpret as a transition to unpredictable chaos. We also incorporate a discussion of economic and risk parameters, both of which also tend to increase with the introduction of SDI systems.