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Violence against police is a problem that calls for organizational solutions. Among dangers to be avoided are crisis-induced panic & the minimization of the problem, as well as strategic planning by police leadership without rank-&-file participation. Even the most serious violence problems afford opportunities for learning if such problems are addressed by cross sections of a police department's membership. Police unions can be involved as partners in organizational problem solving, as has occurred in industry in Quality of Work Life experiments. Joint worker-manager problem solving is independent of labor-management negotiations, which can take adversary form. Recent experiences in the Oakland (Calif) Police Dept have shown that even problem officers -- officers who contribute to citizen confrontations -- can design interventions that reduce violence levels in a community. The Oakland model presupposes that organizational reform activity can simultaneously increase organizational effectiveness & enhance personal problem-solving capacities. As officers help shape a more responsive police agency, they engage in activities -- analyzing data & evolving data-based solutions -- that refine their skills & build their morale. HA.

In the winter of 1941-1942 26 professional people & public figures tried to predict the course of events in the following decade & the state of the world in 1952. These predictions were obtained by H. Cantril by requesting the R to 'write out your general predictions of how things will turn out within the next 10 yrs.' A summary of the findings of an over-all content analysis & a rank ordering of the accurate predictions are presented. Data from letters antedating & post-dating Pearl Harbor were coded separately. A prediction involves the selection of past experiences which seem to be relevant to the developing sequence of events, but it is always a guess & successful prediction depends on an ability to anticipate novelty. Immediate experience, such as Pearl Harbor, tends to influence the nature of prediction, its direction & emphasis. Examples of the wishfulfilling character of predictions are given. Frustration only sometimes appears valuable in prognostication. The characteristics of good prediction are noted. All of the foreign-born people in the sample were successful predictors; these are seen as people who were prevented from growing strong pol'al & ideological roots. The successful predictors were characterized by a wide scope of experience & a broad cultural background. Various predictions are closely interrelated, & the 2 most accurate documents pose several alternative sequences rather than oversimplifying. Good predictions are cautious since they take emergence into account & they are not strongly motivated. It is finally noted that a prediction may be correct because the predictor's premises are valid or because of the irrelevant fact that his att's & wishes happen to coincide with the course of events. J. D. Twight.

Using PO polls for the period 1938-1952 the cultural interpretation (the reason why conservatism varies with increasing age is due to individuals' being reared in different times having different cultural patterns and influences) is challenged in favor of attributing the change to bona fide psychological variables. Opinions regarding conservatism, adherence to habits and traditions, resistance to innovations and emotional retrenchment are used. L. P. Chall.

"This book is about an innovative approach that lets members of progressive organizations function as applied scientists and problem solvers. This means that in such organizations work becomes more mindful. Decisions can be made based on inventories of information and analysis of data-couched tentatively, to be sure, subject to ratification through additional study. At the working level, planning and action can become linked, and the organization thereby becomes problem-oriented rather than crisis-reactive. It is ironic that this problem-oriented approach has evolved most explicitly and self-consciously in policing. We tend to think of police in terms of brawn rather than brains, and we may conceive of police officers as spending time wrestling with suspects and engaged in hot pursuits of fleeing felons. Police are perceived as the embodiment of blind reactivity, and yet an applied social-scientific focus on work has sprung up and taken root within the ranks of police. This book is addressed to those interested in the process of organizational change in settings in which a problem-oriented focus may be relevant. I am interested, therefore, in making the process of problem-oriented activity come alive and in conveying some sense of what such activity means to those who engage in its exercise"--Introd. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2005 APA, all rights reserved)