Suchergebnisse

We use a quasi-experimental research design to examine the effect of model-based capital regulation introduced under the Basel II agreement on the pro-cyclicality of bank lending and firms' access to funds during a recession. In response to an exogenous shock to credit risk in the German economy, loans subject to modelbased, time-varying capital charges were reduced by 3.5 percent more than loans under the traditional approach to capital regulation. The effect is even stronger when we examine aggregate firm borrowing, suggesting that the pro-cyclical effect of model-based capital charges is not offset by substitution to other banks which use the traditional approach.

This paper analyzes the dynamic effects of anticipated and unanticipated oil price increases in a small two-country monetary union, which is simultaneously characterized by asymmetric wage adjustments and asymmetric interest rate sensitivities of private absorption. Common external oil price disturbances lead in this asymmetric macroeconomic setup to temporary divergences in output developments across the monetary union. In the case of anticipated oil price increases the relative cyclical position is reversed in the course of the adjustment process. Complete stabilization of the output variables throughout the overall adjustment process requires a restrictive monetary policy being time inconsistent from a quantitative but time consistent from a qualitative point of view. That means that the central bank credibly announces a future reduction in the growth rate of the nominal money stock but actually implements a reduction, which is less restrictive than the original announcement. ; Dieser Beitrag untersucht die dynamischen Effekte antizipierter und nicht-antizipierter Ölpreiserhöhungen in einer kleinen Währungsunion mit zwei Mitgliedsländern, die gleichzeitig durch asymmetrische Lohnanpassungsgleichungen und asymmetrische Zinsreagibilitäten der Güternachfrage gekennzeichnet sind. In dieser strukturell asymmetrischen Währungsunion führen gemeinsame externe Ölpreisschocks zu vorübergehenden konjunkturellen Divergenzen innerhalb der Währungsunion. Im Fall antizipierter Ölpreiserhöhungen kommt es im Verlauf des Anpassungsprozesses zu einer Umkehrung des Konjunkturgefälles innerhalb der Währungsunion. Die Stabilisierung der Outputentwicklungen innerhalb der Währungsunion ist über den gesamten Zeitraum grundsätzlich möglich, erfordert jedoch eine Ausgestaltung der Geldpolitik, die in qualitativer Hinsicht zeitkonsistent, aber in quantitativer Sicht zeitinkonsistent ist. Sie erfordert nämlich, dass die Zentralbank für den Zeitpunkt der antizipierten Ölpreiserhöhung eine Verringerung der Wachstumsrate der Geldmenge glaubwürdig ankündigt, letztendlich zum späteren Zeitpunkt der Ölpreiserhöhung eine etwas schwächere geldpolitische Reaktion implementiert.

Front -- 1. RESTRUCTURING AND ARMS REDUCTION IN THE WORLD ECONOMY -- 2. JAPAN' S ECONOKIC STRUCTURAL ADJUSTKENTS AND TUE WORLD ECONOKY -- 3. EDITORIAL COMMENTS - 1 -- 4. INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS AND DOMESTIC CONFLICTS: A CASE FOR COUNTERLOBBYING -- 5. GLOBALIZATION AND THE DESIGN OF INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS -- 6. KONETARY POLICY REGIMES, CENTRAL BANK COHMITMENTS, AND INTERNATIONAL POLICY COOPERATION -- 7. SUMMARY BY PROFESSOR G. BASEVI OF SESSION 1: -SUSTAINABLE WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH: A NEW DIMENSION OF ECONOMIC POLICY COOPERATION

Capital requirements play a key role in the supervision and regulation of banks. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is now changing the current framework by introducing risk-sensitive capital charges. There have been concerns that this will unduly increase volatility in the banks' capital. Furthermore, when the credit supply is rationed, capital requirements may exacerbate an economic downturn. We examine the problem of cyclicality in a macroeconomic model which explicitly takes regulatory constraints into account. We find that the capital buffer which banks hold on top of the required minimum plays a crucial role in mitigating the volatility in capital requirements. Therefore, despite the fact that capital charges may vary significantly over time, the effects on the macroeconomy will be moderate.

The economy is sphere of public work and the set of relations that form in the system of production, distribution, exchange and consumption. The paper examines the digital, cyclical, environmental and regional aspects of a cyclical digital environmental regional economy. The digital direction of the economy uses digital twins and robots as assistants to improve its quality, productivity and efficiency. The cyclical economy uses savings and profits to boost its competition and development. The environmental direction of the economy maintains the viability of the environment. The regional economy increases diversification and capacity of local production and preserves the environment in its territory regardless of the type of economic activity. Cyclical aspects of the economy of self-sufficiency mainly concern the financial round-up, and the closed reproduction cycle. Business models of cyclic reproduction realize its economic self-sufficiency. At present, Russia, China, the United States and EU integration education have achieved the optimal level of national economic self-sufficiency. Russia, the United States, and the EU have the necessary financial and human resources. At the same time, China, with excessive human resources, is pursuing a policy of expansion into developing and underdeveloped countries. The main reason for countries to abandon autarky policies in favor of globalization of research activities is the decline in profit levels. The reason for this situation lies in the availability of cheap labour and favourable economic conditions, and production in countries is therefore cheaper. The reason for globalization and the international division of labour lies in maximizing profits, and autarks in maximizing national production, i.e. self-sufficiency. The unity of the Autarky State must be ensured by the existence of economic, historical, cultural ties, as well as by national equilibrium.

"As cities evolve and resources shift with time, spaces within those cities are often left fallow and abandoned. Cyclical City tells the stories behind these sites, from Philadelphia's Liberty Lands park to Lisbon's Green Plan, and it looks at the ways in which these narratives can be leveraged toward future engagement and use. Jill Desimini posits a fundamental role for spatial design practice to transform abandoned urban landscapes through time. She argues for approaches that promote the specific affordances of the land itself (hydrology, vegetation, topography, geology, infrastructural capacity, occupation potential); the importance of cyclical change; and the particularities of the cultural, political, and physical context. These themes are explored in five cities-Philadelphia, Berlin, Lisbon, Amsterdam, and Saint Louis-and across centuries, from periods of great upheaval to ones of relative stability and even economic growth. Desimini considers what landscape-driven design can bring to cities losing people and economic resources, how design practice can be more inclusive in a context of market failure, and the ways in which abandoned landscapes can become our commons"--

ABSTRACT This text presents arguments according to which the pressures of organized groups - but which act in an uncoordinated way - on government decisions related to fiscal issues, cause an increase in inflation, at the same time that they favour the disorganization of the economy. This last effect imposes limits on the behavior of these groups. A "prey-predator" model is used to describe the cyclical correction between the level of organization of such groups and inflation.

Cyclical and linear time perspectives on family household structures are defined. They are utilized in a case study of the father-son dyad in a central Ser bian village over the past 150 years. This relationship is critical to understanding the transitions in the South Slav extended family household, the zadruga. Data are based on oral recall and on vital, tax, and census records. Linear time measures include vital rates such as declining fertility and mortality as well as decreasing household size. Cyclical time measures, which have not varied in the period studied, include age at marriage and age of parent at birth of first child. All these elements are shown to affect the continued existence of extended house hold structures and condition their alteration from predominantly lateral exten sion including collateral kin to units of linear form emphasizing relations across three, and even four, generations. Analyzing these temporal processes is seen as a way of understanding the dynamics behind notions of stability and change in social structures.

The approval accorded to US presidents is found to follow a regular & predictable pattern over time. All presidents begin their terms with great popularity & experience parabolic declines that see them steadily losing popular support for about 3 years & then recovering some at the ends of their terms. These distinctive cycles, it is argued, are the result of regular cycles of expectation & disillusionment among the less informed segments of the public. The origin & explanation of these cycles is the 4-year calendar of US electoral politics. The regularity & extraordinary fit of the parabolic cycles to actual presidential approval leads to the suspicion that presidential approval may be quite independent of most of the president's behavior in office, a function only of inevitable forces associated with time. 5 Tables, 3 Figures. AA.