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Outcome bias and hindsight bias are related, but how exactly? To remedy theoretical ambiguity and non-existent directly relevant empirical research, we contrast an older idea (Baron & Hershey, 1988, J. Pers. Soc. Psychol., 54, 569) that sees outcome bias as partly mediated through hindsight bias with the idea that the two biases independently affect decision evaluations. In an Internet study of retrospections on the 2012 London Olympics, evaluations of the Games' success and its foreseeability had independent effects on evaluations of the International Olympic Committee's decision to award the Olympics to London; there was no evidence of mediation. Further theoretical discussion emphasizes the need to distinguish between a holistic assessment of decisions and a more specific assessment of the decision-making process in future outcome bias research.

Behavioral science has witnessed an explosion in the number of biases identified by behavioral scientists, to more than 200 at present. The paper identifies the ten most important behavioral biases for project planning and management. First, we argue it is a mistake to equate behavioral bias with cognitive bias, as is common. Cognitive bias is only half the story; political bias is the other half. Second, we list the top-ten behavioral biases in project management: strategic misrepresentation; optimism and uniqueness bias; the planning fallacy; overconfidence, availability, and hindsight bias; the base-rate fallacy; anchoring; and escalation of commitment. Each bias is defined and its impacts on project management explained, with examples. Third, base-rate neglect is identified as a primary reason projects underperform. This is supported by presentation of the most comprehensive set of base rates that exists in project management scholarship, from 2,062 projects. Finally, recent findings of power-law outcomes in project performance are identified as a possible first stage in discovering a general theory of project management, with more fundamental and more scientific explanations of project outcomes than found in existing theory. ; Behavioral science has witnessed an explosion in the number of biases identified by behavioral scientists, to more than 200 at present. This article identifies the 10 most important behavioral biases for project management. First, we argue it is a mistake to equate behavioral bias with cognitive bias, as is common. Cognitive bias is half the story; political bias the other half. Second, we list the top 10 behavioral biases in project management: (1) strategic misrepresentation, (2) optimism bias, (3) uniqueness bias, (4) the planning fallacy, (5) overconfidence bias, (6) hindsight bias, (7) availability bias, (8) the base rate fallacy, (9) anchoring, and (10) escalation of commitment. Each bias is defined, and its impacts on project management are explained, with examples. Third, base rate neglect is identified as a primary reason that projects underperform. This is supported by presentation of the most comprehensive set of base rates that exist in project management scholarship, from 2,062 projects. Finally, recent findings of power law outcomes in project performance are identified as a possible first stage in discovering a general theory of project management, with more fundamental and more scientific explanations of project outcomes than found in conventional theory.

With the help of a simple model, we show that the hindsight bias can lead to inefficient delegation decisions. This prediction is tested experimentally. In an online experiment that was conducted during the FIFA World Cup 2010 participants were asked to predict a number of outcomes of the ongoing World Cup and had to recall their assessments after the outcomes had been realized. This served as a measure of the hindsight bias for each participant. The participants also had to make choices in a delegation game. Our data confirm that hindsight-biased subjects more frequently fail to delegate optimally than subjects whom we have classified as not hindsight biased. (author's abstract)

"Rückblickend glauben viele Menschen, sie hätten ein bestimmtes Ereignis, etwa das Ergebnis einer Weltmeisterschaft, viel genauer vorhergesagt, als sie es in Wirklichkeit taten. Sie überschätzen damit die Präzision ihrer eigenen Prognosen. Die Untersuchung dieses hindsight bias für ManagementEntscheidungen deutet darauf hin, dass Manager, die einem hindsight bias anheim fallen, auch die Leistung ihrer Mitarbeiter falsch bewerten und seltener Aufgaben an diese delegieren, als sie eigentlich sollten." [Autorenreferat]

Entrepreneurs are responsible for a great deal of innovation in societies and decision making is an indispensable part of entrepreneurial processes. Entrepreneurs are responsible to discover, recognize and make the most of opportunities (Schumpeter,1935). They need to have access to and gather adequate information to make right and on-time decisions. Entrepreneurs face complex and ambiguous decision making situations and show biases in their time-consuming decision making processes. There has been sufficient evidence that entrepreneurs don't follow rational decision making patterns (Harky and Stumpf,1989). Entrepreneurs, more or less, have this propensity to some extent. A lot of reasons have been identified for this deviations from rational decision making processes, such as the high cost of rational decision making(Simon,1979), limitations in information processing(Abelson and Levi,1985), differences in their styles and procedures(Shafer,1986), or information overload, environmental complexity, and environmental uncertainty (Baron,1998). These biases affect some important aspects of entrepreneurs businesses greatly. Researchers have shown great interests in entrepreneurial decision making and cognitive biases. Overconfidence, Illusion of control, Hindsight Bias, Planning Fallacy and some other major biases have been hypothesized as been common among entrepreneurs. The main goal of this study is to find out the most common entrepreneurial decision making biases by an elaborate review of entrepreneurial decision making biases research history and then examining the findings by interviewing entrepreneurs founding and managing a high-tech company. After analyzing 25 interviews elaborately, it was concluded that Overconfidenc and Illusion of Control are the most common decision making bias among entrepreneurs.

Section I. Hardwired. Gut instinct ; The dawn of time ; All in your head -- Section II. Smoke and mirrors. Back in your box ; Bobbsey twins ; Hindsight is 20/20 -- Section III. Sex type-cast. Sugar and spice ; It's not black and white ; Swipe right for a match ; I hear you, I say -- Section IV. Moral conundrum. I'd blush if I could ; Good intentions -- Epilogue: De-biasing 101.