Suchergebnisse

Economy-wide models such as computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are powerful tools that provide insights on policy impacts on standard economic indicators. With the recent publication of the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA), the power of this approach is amplified. This article addresses an important gap in economy-wide policy modeling applications and literature by developing a conceptual framework for the integration of the SEEA in the CGE framework, enabling for the first time the analysis of policy impacts on the economy and the environment in a quantitative, comprehensive, and consistent framework. Previous integrated modeling efforts have generally focused on the interaction between the economy and one environmental resource in isolation, requiring significant data reconciliation. Integration of SEEA into a CGE circumvents this resource intense process, enhancing analytical power, obviating the need for strong assumptions in reconciling economic–environmental data, reducing start-up costs, and increasing the timeliness of evidence-based policy advice.

Rapid product/process realization and enterprise integration have been identified among the major imperatives for enabling the next generation manufacturing paradigm. This paper proposes a virtual factory modeling approach to support these imperatives. A virtual factory is defined as an integrated simulation model of major subsystems in a factory that considers the factory as a whole and provides an advanced decision support capability. It seeks to go beyond the typical modeling of one sub‐system at a time, such as the manufacturing model, the business process model and/or the communication network model developed individually and in isolation. A basic virtual factory model of a semi‐conductor backend factory has been developed for concept demonstration. Application examples are used to demonstrate the integration between business processes and manufacturing system performance. Future work will move further towards the development of the complete virtual factory and its industry applications.

Aquifer presence and identification -- Aquifer description and characterization -- Static models for reservoirs and their aquifers -- Analytical aquifer modeling -- Numerical aquifer modeling -- Aquifer influx versus water injection in the Gulf of Mexico -- Field case studies -- Applying petroleum lessons to aquifers during the energy transition.

The global context for regional policy is changing fast. Regional policy is challenged by the globalisation and regionalisation of political and economic structures, the implementation of sustainable development, and the reform of political and administrative structures. Most European countries have started to reformulate their regional policy. This wave of change has touched Switzerland as well. Although disparities between the regions are not of the same magnitude as in other countries, regional development problems can be found all over Switzerland. Regional policy, however, has not been adapted to tackle the present challenges. Evaluations in Switzerland and experiences in other countries reveal a need for a more integrated regional policy approach. With reference to the Swiss context, the authors outline the form an integrated policy approach could take. The approach includes the political system and sectoral policies with regional impact and comprises six elements: public and private actors; institutional structures and processes; top-down and bottom-up approaches; exogenous and endogenous strategies; economic, social, and environmental dimensions; and policies at regional, national, and European levels. This integrated perspective is complemented with considerations of how this approach in practice could look like on the national and the regional level. Special attention is given to the role of regional actors and institutions in the development process.

AbstractHurricane track and intensity can change rapidly in unexpected ways, thus making predictions of hurricanes and related hazards uncertain. This inherent uncertainty often translates into suboptimal decision‐making outcomes, such as unnecessary evacuation. Representing this uncertainty is thus critical in evacuation planning and related activities. We describe a physics‐based hazard modeling approach that (1) dynamically accounts for the physical interactions among hazard components and (2) captures hurricane evolution uncertainty using an ensemble method. This loosely coupled model system provides a framework for probabilistic water inundation and wind speed levels for a new, risk‐based approach to evacuation modeling, described in a companion article in this issue. It combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model, the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) hydrologic model, and the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) storm surge, tide, and wind‐wave model to compute inundation levels and wind speeds for an ensemble of hurricane predictions. Perturbations to WRF's initial and boundary conditions and different model physics/parameterizations generate an ensemble of storm solutions, which are then used to drive the coupled hydrologic + hydrodynamic models. Hurricane Isabel (2003) is used as a case study to illustrate the ensemble‐based approach. The inundation, river runoff, and wind hazard results are strongly dependent on the accuracy of the mesoscale meteorological simulations, which improves with decreasing lead time to hurricane landfall. The ensemble envelope brackets the observed behavior while providing "best‐case" and "worst‐case" scenarios for the subsequent risk‐based evacuation model.

This research aims (1) to study the practice of an Integrated Regional Development Policy Formulation (IRDPF) in Ethiopia and (2) to explore and identify the challenges of integrated regional development policy formulation in Ethiopia. The research is conducted by collecting data from 20 purposely selected key informants from both the federal and regional government sectors, political parties and community in Ethiopia. Data are collected through in-depth interviews and review of relevant documents, and systematically analyzed using content analysis technique. The results show that the practice of policymaking and IRDPF process in particular is not in line with of the law of land, in which the executive branch, particularly, the Prime Minister and ruling party’s elites are the key actor in the process at both federal and regional levels with limited consultation and participation of other House of Peoples Representatives, federal and regional policy makers, and other stakeholders. The study also identified various political, social, economic and technical challenges that affect sound and effective integrated regional development policy formulation in the country.

Water shortages from intermittent public supplies are a major and expanding global problem. Yet individual users, utility managers, and government officials can improve access or cope with shortages in numerous ways. New supplies, more efficient use of existing resources, long-term investments to expand infrastructure and reduce leakage, and short-term measures to flexibly transfer, ration, or curtail some uses, represent several different approaches, timings, and spatial scales for management. Integrated systems analysis identifies management actions that minimize costs or maximize benefits across a variety of water shortage conditions. The systems analysis works as follows. First, identify a wide range of potential actions. Second, characterize each action by the financial costs, perceived costs, and effective water volume added or saved. Third, describe interdependencies when adopting multiple actions together. Fourth, list the shortage or water availability events and their likelihoods for which the system must adapt to deliver water. And fifth, use stochastic programming with recourse to identify the best mix of actions. Analytical error propagation, sensitivity analysis, Monte-Carlo simulations, robust and grey-number optimization explore implications of uncertainties on recommended actions. Systems analysis is applied separately at three spatial scales in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan—for individual residential users, the water system serving 2.2 million residents in the capital Amman, and the entire kingdom comprising Amman and 11 other governorates. Jordan is a top-ten water-poor country and has a continuing annual population growth of 2% to 3%. Results can help inform current and future shortage coping strategies. Foremost, model results identify a portfolio of actions to reduce shortage coping costs. However, results also establish a systematic approach to integrate source, quantity, reliability, quality, and conservation to estimate water demands; do so using disjoint empirical data sources; yield new insights to size, target, and market conservation actions to users; highlight limitations of a demand curve under block pricing; identify customer willingness-to-pay to improve access; show capital investments required to increase water availability; and show how to include water use efficiency at the regional scale. Together, the results identify complementary actions undertaken at multiple spatial scales in Jordan by individual users, utility managers, and government officials.

AbstractKnowledge and innovation have become a significant source of modern regional development. The paper aims to study the spatial association of innovation and model innovation, besides critiquing regional innovation policy, using the regional knowledge production function approach. At the level of the Egyptian governorates, the number of patent applications has been used as a proxy for innovation. The study uses cross‐sectional data for patents in 2018 with lagged time variables for knowledge input factors. The study contributes towards applying the knowledge production function at the level of the Egyptian governorates for the first time. Exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression are used, using the knowledge sources and localized characteristics. Our analysis found that research and development activities for academic institutions are associated with innovation outputs. In the context of the Egyptian regional innovation system, the contribution of private research activities is perceived to be negligible, and the innovation outputs are highly associated with the spatial association of the Egyptian governorates.

The problem of Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Material Shortages (DMSMS) afflicts the Air Force and other armed services in a way unforeseen in the past. The costs of DMSMS manifest themselves both in terms of monetary expense and diminished mission readiness. The current environment of limited defense spending and high operations tempo exacerbates this problem. This thesis draws on available data from the electronics integrated circuit industry to attempt to assess whether statistical modeling offers a viable method for predicting the presence of DMSMS. The research identified logistic regression as a powerful tool for analysis of DMSMS and further developed twenty models attempting to identify the "best" way to model and predict DMSMS using logistic regression. The results indicated that DMSMS does not seem related to technical characteristics. However, design age proved to be statistically significant in modeling DMSMS presence. Another finding of this research indicates that integrated circuits designed for military use have extended longevity compared to commercial integrated circuits. The overall conclusion of this effort was that DMSMS can be predicted using the conditional probability output of logistic regression. Current databases do not provide easy access to the vital predictor, design age. Recommendations include further validation of the model and the inclusion of design age in electronics integrated circuit databases.