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Starting with J. Galtung's structural theory of aggression, stress is put on the ecological background of conflicts, esp conversion of energy through plants & animals. The role of the horse is studied extensively & exemplified by pastoral nomads, Plains Indians, etc. Group conflicts seem to be concomitant to the introduction of new mechanisms of conversion of energy. One of the most striking characteristics of industr'ism is precisely the constant & strongly accelerating stream of new methods of converting energy. The 'white race' has been considered beyond comparison the most warlike of all races, & there is much evidence to suggest that its warlike traditions lead back even to the earliest Indo-European migrations in Late Neolithic time & the Bronze Age. As the acquisition of new instruments of conversion of energy seems to promote belligerence-whereas again war means an enormous stimulus to technological development-the out-feedback-input model probably should be applicable to the study of war. Since war is a structural phenomenon apparently endemic in Western industr'ized countries, their structures, & accordingly their values, have to be changed in r to inter-state structures in the direction of soc & econ'al equality. This would mean values which make for cooperation rather than rivalry; creative, constructive activity instead of aggression. IPSA.

TO THINK ON PRIORITIES IN PEACE RESEARCH IS TO REFLECT ON THE STATE OF PEACE ON OUR MINDS. DEVELOPMENTS IN THREE CRUCIAL SPHERES MUST CAUSE SERIOUS CONCERN. THESE ARE: ACCELERATED ARMS RACE; THE WIDENING DISPARITIES BETWEEN THE RICH AND THE POOR IN THE GLOBAL SOCIETY; AND THE GROWING WAVE OF OPPRESSION, AUTHORITARIAN RULE AND CONTEMPT FOR HUMAN RIGHTS.

Prediction and forecasting have now fully reached peace and conflict research. We define forecasting as predictions about unrealized outcomes given model estimates from realized data, and predictions more generally as the assignment of probability distributions to realized or unrealized outcomes. Increasingly, scholars present within- and out-of-sample prediction results in their publications and sometimes even forecasts for unrealized, future outcomes. The articles in this special issue demonstrate the ability of current approaches to forecast events of interest and contributes to the formulation of best practices for forecasting within peace research. We highlight the role of forecasting for theory evaluation and as a bridge between academics and policymakers, summarize the contributions in the special issue, and provide some thoughts on how research on forecasting in peace research should proceed. We suggest some best practices, noting the importance of theory development, interpretability of models, replicability of results, and data collection.