Predictions of Tragedy vs. Tragedy of Predictions in Northeast Asian Security
In: The Korean journal of defense analysis, Band 18, Heft 1, S. 7-33
ISSN: 1016-3271
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In: The Korean journal of defense analysis, Band 18, Heft 1, S. 7-33
ISSN: 1016-3271
SSRN
In: American economic review, Band 105, Heft 5, S. 491-495
ISSN: 1944-7981
Most empirical policy work focuses on causal inference. We argue an important class of policy problems does not require causal inference but instead requires predictive inference. Solving these "prediction policy problems" requires more than simple regression techniques, since these are tuned to generating unbiased estimates of coefficients rather than minimizing prediction error. We argue that new developments in the field of "machine learning" are particularly useful for addressing these prediction problems. We use an example from health policy to illustrate the large potential social welfare gains from improved prediction.
In: Network science, Band 8, Heft 4, S. 574-595
ISSN: 2050-1250
AbstractWe present a statistical framework for generating predicted dynamic networks based on the observed evolution of social relationships in a population. The framework includes a novel and flexible procedure to sample dynamic networks given a probability distribution on evolving network properties; it permits the use of a broad class of approaches to model trends, seasonal variability, uncertainty, and changes in population composition. Current methods do not account for the variability in the observed historical networks when predicting the network structure; the proposed method provides a principled approach to incorporate uncertainty in prediction. This advance aids in the designing of network-based interventions, as development of such interventions often requires prediction of the network structure in the presence and absence of the intervention. Two simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate the usefulness of generating predicted networks when designing network-based interventions. The framework is also illustrated by investigating results of potential interventions on bill passage rates using a dynamic network that represents the sponsor/co-sponsor relationships among senators derived from bills introduced in the U.S. Senate from 2003 to 2016.
In: Management Science, Early View, Forthcoming
SSRN
In: International Journal of Computer Engineering and Technology 11(3), 2020, pp. 45-51.
SSRN
In: Management report for nonunion organizations, Band 41, Heft 4, S. 5-6
ISSN: 1530-8286
When an employer is found to have made an unlawful threat during an organizing campaign, the National Labor Relations Board typically orders the employer to publicly disavow the threat, which tends to diminish the employer's credibility in the eyes of employees and give the union a leg up in the campaign. In other cases, an employer's illegal threat before a vote on union representation can invalidate the election if the union is defeated at the ballot box.
In: Africa research bulletin. Economic, financial and technical series, Band 46, Heft 4
ISSN: 1467-6346
In: What Every Engineer Should Know About Decision Making Under Uncertainty
In: Journal of Palestine studies, Band 4, Heft 1, S. 151-154
ISSN: 1533-8614
In: Journal of Palestine studies, Band 4, Heft 1, S. 151-154
ISSN: 1533-8614
In: Accelerating Democracy, S. 60-76
In: Data Science in Finance and Economics, 2022, 2(4): 359-379
SSRN
Working paper
In: Scientia Militaria: South African journal of military studies, Band 11, Heft 4
ISSN: 1022-8136