Suchergebnisse

Warren Miller and the study of elections / M.K. Jennings and T.E. Mann -- Unresolved issues in electoral decisions : alternative perspectives on the explanation of individual choice / J.M. Shanks, with the assistance of D.A. Strand -- Electoral survey data and the temporal dimension / H. Eulau -- The rational citizen faces election day or what rational choice theorists don't tell you about American elections / R.E. Wolfinger -- Party identification compared across the Atlantic / S. Holmberg -- The cumbersome way to partisan orientations in a "new" democracy : the case of the former GDR / M. Kaase and H. Klingemann -- Accounting for divided government : generational effects on party and split-ticket voting / R.A. Brody, D.W. Brady, and V. Heitshusen -- Are British elections becoming more "presidential"? / I. Crewe and A. King -- On Warren Miller's longest footnote : the vote in context / J. Sprague -- Empirical research into political representation : failing democracy or failing models? / J. Thomassen -- National party conventions : changing functions, new research strategies / L.D. Epstein -- List alliances : an experiment in political representation / H. Valen

AbstractWith the growth of Latino and Asian American populations, candidates frequently must appeal to diverse electorates. Strategies for doing so include emphasizing candidates' racial/ethnic identity and securing endorsements from racial/ethnic groups. While many scholars focus on candidates' racial/ethnic attributes, ethnic group endorsements are understudied. Whether such endorsements induce voters to choose ideologically similar candidates (spatial voting), or choose based on race/ethnicity (racial voting) is unclear. We address this question by examining elections in multiethnic local settings. Using original surveys and exit polls, we create comparable measures of candidate and voter ideology, and examine how race/ethnicity and ideology affect voters' choices. We also embed experiments that manipulate ethnic group endorsements. We find that ideology influences voters' choices, but that ethnic group endorsements weaken spatial voting. The latter effect among whites is driven by racial/ethnic stereotypes. These reactions explain why some candidates seek such endorsements and why others might prefer to avoid them.

We employ conjoint analysis to understand how voters make decisions when faced with multi-dimensional choices. Respondents are asked to choose between candidates that vary along three valence (education, income and honesty) and two ideological attributes (attitudes toward tax and spending and the rights of same-sex couples). We have administered the conjoint analysis experiment to 186 subjects, resulting in 5022 votes over pair-wise compared candidates. Our results indicate that education and integrity - but not income - indeed behave like valence issues where voters prefer more to less. They also show that voters' preference takes the competency form. The marginal impact of valued valence attributes is conditional on the candidate's positions on policy. It is higher where those positions are closer to those of respondents. Finally, when voters are faced with a stark choice between candidate holding different policy views, they are ready to trade a higher valence candidate, with whom they do not share policy views, with a lower valence one with whom they share such views.

This article empirically analyzes the effects of terrorism on the electoral choices of the Turkish voters in the 1991 and 1995 general elections. It relies on a unique data set that includes the date and the place of burial of Turkish soldiers and police officers who died in the fight against the terrorist organization PKK. The author uses the number of these security force terror casualties at the district level as a measure of the level of terrorism that the people of that district have been exposed to and analyzes whether and how exposure to terrorism affects people's electoral choices. The results indicate that Turkish voters are highly sensitive to terrorism and that they blame the government for their losses. Moreover, exposure to terrorism leads to an increase in the vote share of the right-wing parties who are less concessionist toward the terrorist organization's cause compared to their left-wing counterparts. [Reprinted by permission of Sage Publications Inc., copyright holder.]

В данной статье проводится эконометрическая оценка пространственной модели голосования на парламентских выборах с использованием опросных данных по Великобритании, Нидерландам и Израилю. Показано, что при голосовании более образованные избиратели больший вес придают политическим программам партий. Выбор менее образованных избирателей обусловлен в первую очередь их доходом, местом проживания, отношением к религии и прочими социально-экономическими факторами. В случае Израиля аналогичную роль играет степень соблюдения избирателем религиозных традиций: менее религиозные избиратели придают больший вес политическим программам партий. ; A spatial model of voting in parliamentary elections is estimated by using survey data from The Netherlands, Great Britain, and Israel. It is shown that more educated voters put more weight on the parties'political programs. The choice of less educated voters depends primarily on their social and economic status. In the case of Israel, observance of religions traditions plays the same role as education in European countries: the more secular is the voter, the greater is the impact of the party's policy platform on his choice.

Does law exhibit a significant constraint on Supreme Court justices' decisions? Although proponents of the attitudinal model argue that ideology predominantly influences justices' choices, "hybrid models" posit that law and ideology exhibit discrete and concurrent effects on justices' choices. I offer a new conceptualization of legal constraint examining how legal rules permit varying degrees of ideological discretion, which establishes how strongly ideological preferences will influence justices' votes. In examining the levels-of-scrutiny legal doctrine, I posit theoretical models highlighting the differential constraining capacities of the strict scrutiny, intermediate scrutiny, and rational basis rules. I use a multilevel modeling framework to test the hypotheses within the context of theGrayneddoctrine in free expression law. The results show that strict scrutiny, whichGraynedapplied to content-based regulations of expression, significantly constrains ideological voting, whereas intermediate scrutiny (applied to content-neutral regulations) and the low scrutiny categories each promote high levels of ideological voting.

Attempts to explain the effects of social class on electoral choices have focused on the relative impact of sociological, or "bottom-up," versus political, or "top-down," factors. We examine these contending approaches in post-Communist Russia, which has undergone both a significant economic transformation and major shifts in the politicization of class by its main electoral contenders, making it an informative context in which to examine competing explanations of the class-vote relationship. The analysis is based on data from five nationwide surveys conducted over the period 1993-2001 and provides evidence that an association between class position and presidential choice emerged in the mid-1990s in which the two largest classes, the working class and professional and managerial workers, provided a stable basis of support for the main free market versus interventionist axis of political division. These findings indicate the presence of rapid political learning among Russians and the resilience of class-based preferences despite Putin's centrist political program

Many political issues like abortion, gay marriage or assisted suicide are strongly contested because individuals have preferences not only over their own choice but also about other individuals? actions. How should society decide these issues? This paper compares three regimes (centralization, decentralization and federalism) in an economy where individuals choose their residence and vote over a single-dimensional regulatory policy at the regional and national level. The main results are: (i) A move from decentralization to federalism, called moral federalism, is welfare improving behind the veil of ignorance if and only if centralization dominates decentralization, and (ii) for the group that favors a restrictive policy moral federalism is the more attractive the smaller its group size (subject to being the majority group), the larger the suffering from a given policy, and the smaller the regions? weight in determining the federal policy limit. The results are consistent with the Bush administration's attempt to restrict liberal policy choices at the state level after its narrow election victory in 2000.

The purpose of this paper is to show how the geometry of the quadratic utility function in the standard spatial model of choice can be exploited to estimate a model of parliamentary roll call voting. In a standard spatial model of parliamentary roll call voting, the legislator votes for the policy outcome corresponding to Yea if her utility for Yea is greater than her utility for Nay. The voting decision of the legislator is modeled as a function of the difference between these two utilities. With quadratic utility, this difference has a simple geometric interpretation that can be exploited to estimate legislator ideal points and roll call parameters in a standard framework where the stochastic portion of the utility function is normally distributed. The geometry is almost identical to that used by Poole (2000) to develop a nonparametric unfolding of binary choice data and the algorithms developed by Poole (2000) can be easily modified to implement the standard maximum-likelihood model.

An empirical analysis of the distribution of Department of Defense (DOD) personnel (both military and civilian) across states is developed with a commonly used Public Choice model of resource allocation in a legislative setting. The model specification employs Congressional seniority, Congressional committee representation, Presidential electoral votes, and the per capita dollar value of prime defense contract awards to explain the variation of DOD personnel across states over time. The empirical analysis is performed over the last three decades, and the results indicate that this particular Public Choice legislative model performs well in explaining the variation in DOD personnel allocations across states. The results also provide some limited evidence of a possible political market between the states for DOD personnel allocations. This analysis has implications for future testing of whether the Base Realignment and Closure Commission (established in 1988 under President Reagan), and the Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission of 1990 (under President Bush) were effective in significantly decreasing the legislative politics involved in the selection and approval process for base closure and realignment.

AbstractThis study employs a decision model to study the effects on popular support of candidate chances and candidate moderation in the American presidential nomination process. The decision model draws upon psychological and rational choice theories of decision making to accommodate both the complexity of choice citizens face in the typical nomination campaign, and the need to keep decision costs in bounds. We use the model to simulate voter decision making under repeated trials of nomination campaigns. The simulation trials vary the chances candidates have of winning their party's nomination, and the ideological moderation of competing nomination candidates. Our results show that increasing a candidate's chances for the nomination can have substantial payoff in support, but that the consequences of moderating a candidate's ideological stand are more muted. Our research speaks to broader guest ions of decision making when information costs are high but cognitive effort remains low, and to the resolution of intraparty conflict in a dynamic and volatile political environment.

There is some controversy concerning the role of ethnicity in South African electoral behaviour. Since the society is segmented on ethnic lines it is to be expected that ethnicity would play a crucial role in affecting political choices. Some writers have gone so far as to suggest that ethnicity is the only significant factor affecting voting preferences. The controversy arose at a time when Goodman's method of log-linear analysis for hierarchical models had not yet been developed. This method provides the most powerful tool available for the multivariate analysis of categorical data. A re-analysis of previously published research using Goodman's method shows that ethnicity is not the only significant factor having a bearing on voting preferences. The first four-way table of voting preferences in South Africa is presented. The order of importance of the variables affecting party choice is: (1) ethnicity (2) socio-economic status (3) age of the voter. The recursive model suggested by the analysis explains approximately 98 per cent of the data.

Depuis les travaux pionniers de Kenneth Arrow (1951), Anthony (1957) et Mancur Olson (1965), la théorie des « choix rationnels » ou approche économique du politique, fondée sur le paradigme « utilitariste », s'est considérablement développée aux Etats-Unis, gagnant progressivement tous les domaines de la science politique et représentant près de 40 % des articles publiés de 1952 à 1992 dans l'American political science review (Green, Shapiro, 1995, p. 97). Son impérialisme même suscite aujourd'hui une vigoureuse contre-offensive, lancée par Green et Shapiro dans un ouvrage au titre évocateur, Pathologies of rational choice theories (1994). Il n'en va pas de même en France où, en science politique du moins, le débat reste embryonnaire. L'approche économique du politique suscite peu d'articles et ceux que l'on recense dans la Revue francaise de science politique sont le plus souvent le fait d'économistes (Lafay, 1982 ; Rosa, 1976) ou de spécialistes étrangers (Green, Shapiro, 1995 ; Lewis-Beck, 1985 ; Downs, 1961). Introduire à ce type d'approche, faire l'inventaire des principaux travaux existants, discuter leurs apports à la compréhension du politique et principalement du vote, tel est l'objectif des articles ici rassemblés, qui croisent le point de vue du sociologue, de l'économiste et du politiste. [Premier paragraphe]