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About forecasting ; Sulla Previsione
Modernity has outlined the future as a space of freedom. This space is guaranteed by the coexistence of forecast models legitimized by procedures that guarantee internal consistency and are corroborated by observational data. But the coexistence of potentially effective models also requires a comparative evaluation that attributes appropriate likelihood values to the alternative scenarios that these models outline. Based on these assessments, the community is called upon to decide which models to adopt through a political practice capable of implementing choices that are aware of the constraints that the scientific paradigm poses and jointly consider the values and desires of that community. ; La modernità ha delineato il futuro come spazio di libertà. Questo spazio è garantito dalla coesistenza di modelli previsionali legittimati da procedure che ne garantiscono la coerenza interna e sono corroborati da dati osservativi. Ma la coesistenza di modelli potenzialmente efficaci richiede anche una valutazione comparata che attribuisca opportuni valori di verosimiglianza agli scenari alternativi che questi modelli delineano. Sulla base di queste valutazioni, la comunità è chiamata a decidere quali modelli adottare attraverso una pratica politica capace di implementare scelte consapevoli dei vincoli che il paradigma scientifico pone e tenga contestualmente conto dei valori e dei desideri di quella comunità.
BASE
Forecasting Broad Money Velocity
In: North_American Journal of Economics and Finance, Band 42
SSRN
Testing forecasting model versatility
In: Economics letters, Band 117, Heft 3, S. 803-806
ISSN: 0165-1765
Macroeconomic forecasting in the EMU
In: Journal of policy modeling: JPMOD ; a social science forum of world issues, Band 30, Heft 3, S. 417-429
ISSN: 0161-8938
Macroeconomic forecasting in the EMU
In: Journal of policy modeling: JPMOD ; a social science forum of world issues, Band 30, Heft 3, S. 417-430
ISSN: 0161-8938
CTBT: FORECASTING the future
In: Bulletin of the atomic scientists, Band 61, Heft 2, S. 50-57
ISSN: 1938-3282
CTBT: Forecasting the future
In: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Band 61, Heft 2, S. 50-57
CTBT: forecasting the future
In: The bulletin of the atomic scientists: a magazine of science and public affairs, Heft 2, S. 50-57
ISSN: 0096-3402, 0096-5243, 0742-3829
World Affairs Online
Whole life cost forecasting
In: The RUSI journal, Band 145, Heft 4, S. 25-29
ISSN: 1744-0378
Whole life cost forecasting
In: RUSI journal, Band 145, Heft 4, S. 25-29
ISSN: 0307-1847
World Affairs Online
Forecasting the world's problems
In: Futures, Band 23, Heft 2, S. 163-178
Chaos: Implications for forecasting
In: Futures, Band 23, Heft 1, S. 50-58