In the 20th Century, Brazil rapidly urbanized and is now not only an urban nation but a metropolitan one. Brazils sprawling regioes metropolitanas (metropolitan regions, or RMs, which are municipal clusters) are now home to almost 50 million people and much of the countrys economic vitality. The RM spatial level and its supporting governmental institutions have thus become critical to Brazils future development. While challenges remain for tackling deprivation in rural areas, poverty in Brazil is now predominantly urban. More than six in 10 Brazilians in extreme poverty were living in urban settings as of 2012. Of these, over a fourth was concentrated in the 10 largest RMs.
From the introduction: The last two years mark a turning point in public perception of human-induced climate change as a problem of global importance. The widespread acceptance that 'most of the observed increase in globally-averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas [GHG] concentrations' has increased political pressure on governments to reduce GHG emissions. At the same time, rising oil prices have made the reduction of dependence on energy imports and diversification of the energy mix strategic imperatives for many countries around the world. While governments worldwide are confronted with this dual challenge, it is of special relevance to China. On the one hand, China has recently become the world's largest emitter of CO2, accounting for 24% of global annual CO2 emissions. China is therefore one of the most important players to effectively mitigate global warming and pressure from governments around the world on China to join emission reductions efforts is mounting. On the other hand, energy demand is growing exponentially and China is increasingly relying on energy imports to satisfy energy needs. Worried that growing dependency on energy imports may be accompanied by foreign-policy and economic pressures that might threaten national security as well as social and political stability, China has implemented a number of policies to address this issue ranging from policies to save energy and reduce energy intensity, to the diversification of oil supply sources and routes, the support of equity oil overseas acquisitions and the build up of strategic oil reserves to the diversification of the energy portfolio. In line with the objective to diversify the composition of the energy mix, China's leadership is increasingly realizing the need to reduce emissions and support renewable energy development. At a recently held Politburo study session, President Hu Jintao exclaimed: 'Our task is tough, and our time is limited. Party organisations and governments at all levels must give priority to emission reduction and bring the idea deep into people's hearts". To address the issue of energy security, the Chinese government has adapted a two-pronged approach. While measures to promote energy savings and efficiency curb the increase in energy demand, the support of renewable and nuclear energy reduces dependency on energy imports and contributes to the broadening of the foundation of energy supply. This study focuses on China's renewable energy policy and the development of wind energy in China in particular. Commitment by the highest levels of government and a host of favourable policies have triggered a boom in renewable energy in China, especially in the wind power sector. A major step in the development of renewable energy in China has been the Renewable Energy Law that came into effect in January 2006. In addition, the government has set ambitious targets for energy intensity reduction, and share of renewable energy of primary energy consumption. China is on the way to become the world leader in renewable energies. In 2007, investment in renewable energies in China amounted to approximately US$ 12 billion, second only to Germany. In terms of installed renewable energy capacity, China leads the world with 151 GW of installed capacity, largely due to the widespread utilization of hydropower for electricity generation. According to a report by the United Nations Environmental Programme, China is the world's leading manufacturer of solar cells, with an estimated annual production capacity of 3.000 MW. China's wind power market was the third biggest worldwide in 2007 and growth rates continue to exceed expectations. In 2009, China is expected to take the lead as the largest manufacturer of wind turbines. Hydro power represents the most important source of renewable energy in China and plays an important part in the power generation portfolio, most notably since the construction of the Three Gorges Dam. Hydro capacity is expected to double to 290 GW until 2020, but concerns about the social and environmental impact of large-scale hydro power are becoming stronger. Although China is the world's leading solar manufacturer, installed solar photovoltaic power capacity amounts to a mere 0.01% of total power generation capacity (80 MW, approx. 50% of which are off-grid). Solar power equipment is produced almost exclusively for export. Considering China's enormous energy demand and the pace of its growth, deployment of solar photovoltaic power is not viewed as a first-rate solution to satisfy China's energy needs, since it features high costs and low efficiencies compared to other renewables like hydro or wind power. While China does not have significant amounts of solar PV capacity, it is the biggest market for solar thermal systems for heating and hot water supply with 64,5% of global capacity, amounting to 68 GW. Biomass covers 13% of primary energy demand, mostly used in rural households for heating and cooking. In 2007, only 0,28% of power generation capacity were fuelled by biomass. The government plans to expand biomass capacity from 2 to 30 GW by 2020. Despite the impressive progress of recent years, renewable energies - excluding hydro - only contribute less than 1% to China's electricity supply and the skies above China's urban areas continue to be shrouded by smog. Since coal-fired power generation accounts for 82,9% of total electricity supply, it is no surprise that half of China's emissions are attributable to power generation. With electricity demand growing rapidly alongside the economy, dependency on coal as the major source for power generation is likely to persist. However, as the most important source of renewable energy next to hydro, and growth of installed capacity constantly accelerating, peaking at about 130% in 2007, wind power is one of – if not the – most promising option on China's path towards diversification of the energy mix. In recent years wind power has become a mainstream source of renewable energy excelling with mature technology and power generation costs almost competitive with conventional power sources, providing a viable alternative to coal as a source of electricity generation. In 2005, just before the development of wind power started to pick up pace, the China Wind Power Training and Research Project (CWPP) of the German Development Cooperation (GTZ) saw its inception, with the aim of improving the conditions for sustained development of wind power in China. Primary objective of CWPP is the support of sustained long-term wind power development in China. To attain this goal CWPP supports the improvement of technical capabilities of private and government institutions and organizations through activities in the fields of wind power training, technical support and research. The project's engagement ranges from training of technicians in charge of operation and maintenance (OM) at wind farms to the introduction and localisation of software vital to wind resource assessment. These capacity building activities are complemented by wind power information services as well as policy advice to relevant government institutions. The CWPP activities and the indicators measuring its success are based on an analysis of framework conditions in 2003/2004. However, since then the general conditions for wind power in China have changed drastically due to policy changes inducing exponential growth of the industry. While from 2000 to 2005 total installed capacity grew at an average rate of 31%, it more than doubled in the last two years. Newly installed capacity increased at an even faster rate averaging 156% annual growth from 2005 till 2007. In light of the boom in the Chinese wind power sector, it is imperative to realign project activities with actual market conditions on the basis of an up-to-date assessment of the current situation and future outlook. This analysis of the wind power sector in China in 2008 will serve as a basis for the review of current CWPP activities with the aim of developing recommendations for adaptations where deemed necessary. Content Methodology: The study is divided into seven chapters. Subsequent to the introduction, the global development of wind power, its major drivers and trends are discussed briefly serving as a backdrop to the study. The third chapter introduces CWPP and its activities along with the current status of project implementation. The fourth and fifth chapter form the main body of this study. Beginning with the current picture of energy supply and demand, the fourth chapter goes on to introduce the relevant government authorities in charge of Chinese renewable energy policy. Since the basis for wind power development is government support, a detailed examination of renewable energy policy in China is given. The policies governing the wind power sector are reviewed in order to explore the origins of the current boom of the wind power industry. The fifth chapter offers an in-depth discussion of wind power in China, including wind power potential, current status of the market and future development as well as the situation with regards to wind power equipment manufacturers and project developers. In the sixth chapter, major determinants that have the potential to negatively affect the perspectives of wind power development in China are identified and discussed. As a conclusion, chapter seven offers recommendations for the realignment of CWPP activities according to the actual needs of the market. A series of expert interviews was conducted within the scope of the study. The experts interviewed included representatives of relevant government authorities, foreign and domestic wind turbine manufacturers, component suppliers, project developers, industry associations, universities, research institutes, consultancies, CDM agencies and environmental organizations. These interviews serve as a supplement to the evaluation of secondary literature and online sources so as to guarantee the timeliness and validity of information in the study. In cooperation with the China Electric Power Research Institute (CEPRI) and the Chinese Wind Energy Association (CWEA) the need for wind power-specific training and education for wind power equipment manufacturers and power generation companies was assessed through two separate surveys. In addition, two polls were conducted among wind turbine and component manufacturers at the China Wind Energy Exhibition 2008 in Shanghai and the Wind Power Asia 2008 in Beijing. These polls helped to identify the major challenges for the wind sector's future development in China and contributed to the assessment of the current situation with regard to human resources and qualification.Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents: 1.INTRODUCTION7 1.1BACKGROUND7 1.2CONTENT METHODOLOGY9 2.THE GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT OF WIND POWER10 2.1DEVELOPMENT OF THE GLOBAL WIND POWER MARKET10 2.2DRIVERS AND TRENDS OF WIND POWER DEVELOPMENT12 3.THE GTZ CHINA WIND POWER PROJECT17 4.ENERGY POLICY IN CHINA19 4.1ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND19 4.2RELEVANT PLAYERS IN ENERGY POLICY MAKING22 4.3RENEWABLE ENERGY AND WIND POWER POLICY25 4.3.1THE CONCESSION PROGRAMME AND ORIGINS OF WIND POWER PRICING25 4.3.2THE RENEWABLE ENERGY LAW29 4.3.3INVESTMENT CONDITIONS FINANCIAL INCENTIVES33 5.WIND POWER IN CHINA39 5.1WIND ENERGY RESOURCE CHARACTERISTICS AND DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL39 5.2CURRENT STATUS OF DEVELOPMENT42 5.3MARKET FORECAST45 5.4WIND TURBINE MANUFACTURERS47 5.5WIND TURBINE COMPONENT SUPPLIERS55 5.6PROJECT DEVELOPERS55 5.7PROJECT ECONOMICS56 6.POTENTIAL PITFALLS FOR WIND POWER DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA58 6.1POLICY59 6.2HUMAN RESOURCES60 6.3WIND FARM PERFORMANCE LACK OF TRANSPARENCY63 6.4GRID INTEGRATION64 7.RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE GTZ CHINA WIND POWER PROJECT67 7.1WIND POWER EDUCATION TRAINING68 7.2RD AND TECHNOLOGICAL CAPACITY BUILDING70 7.3INFORMATION SERVICES71 7.4FINAL REMARKS73 Bibliography72Textprobe:Text Sample: Chapter 6.1, Potential Pitfalls for Wind Power Development in China: Wind power in China faces a series of adverse outer influences at present. Most of these are not expected to constitute insurmountable barriers to wind power development, but will impact the pace of development nonetheless. The financial crisis on Wall Street that has spread to financial markets around the world, spurs serious worries of a global economic downturn. The renewable energy sector is hit particularly hard by a deterioration of investor confidence, since many observers assume that renewable energy development same as environmental concerns will be shelved until the economies show signs of recovery. The wind industry in China will not be exempt from negative effects of the crisis. Since raising capital will prove difficult in this situation, planned IPOs will be moved back and investments may be deferred. The fall in oil prices in fear of a recession contributes to increase the discrepancy in profitability between conventional power and renewable energy projects (decrease the relative competitiveness of renewables). The rise in coal prices and the credit squeeze further draws liquidity from the market for project development. Rising prices in raw materials drive the increase in wind turbine prices. However, wind power development in China also faces a series of challenges of intrinsic nature. The tremendous pace at which the Chinese wind power sector has been evolving entails an inherent risk of undesirable developments. Reports of wind turbines not performing as expected or even collapsing, lack of due diligence in planning of wind farms, serial production errors in turbines, the counterfeiting of components. These incidents are often portrayed as isolated, but may be representative of greater erroneous trends in the industry. Government regulation will be essential in addressing the issues at stake and preventing them from becoming fundamental barriers to future wind power development. Policy: As mentioned before, government renewable energy and wind power policy have been the single most important driver for wind power development around the world. This is also true for China. A combination of wind power development targets, mandatory market share requirements, economic incentives and protective policies have created a burgeoning wind power market and a thriving domestic industry. Nevertheless, in order to prevent a bust from following the boom, a few adjustments of the policy framework are necessary in order to provide for sustained wind power development. Restrictive government policies, particularly with regard to wind power pricing and foreign investment, pose a serious barrier to the exploitation of a diverse set of investment sources for wind power development in China. Obstructive regulations for FDI, especially with regard to debt financing and CDM project ownership, serve as deterrents for foreign investors. Modes for participation in the regulatory process are unclear, as are rights to appeal regulatory decisions. The lack of a clear pricing policy guaranteeing secure and attractive profit margins for wind power projects has kept many potential investors at bay. Limited access to proper financing and insurance further discourages private and foreign investors. The development of a competitive power sector is also impeded by the dominance of state-owned power generators, who retain strong and often opaque links to state funds, while their levels of profit, subsidies and cross-subsidisation are undisclosed. The government has largely recognized the challenge to open up the market to private and foreign investors. Movement towards further improvement of the policy framework governing wind power is visible. Recently, the government has been addressing many of the most important barriers impeding wind power development. Wind power pricing policy has been slowly moving towards a more predictable and lucrative system of fixed feed-in tariffs. Government action has been taken to alleviate deficiencies regarding reliable wind resource data and the innovation capability of the domestic industry. According to some observers, CDM regulations are expected to be loosened in favour of foreign investors. Still, a number of challenges remain to be addressed, demanding government guidance in order to facilitate sustained, long-term development of wind power in China: - Enforce efforts to provide adequate wind power education and training programmes to ease the human resource deficit. - Establish strong mandatory wind turbine certification standards and support capacity building in the field of turbine testing, in order to ensure turbine quality/reliability and in the long-run improve global competitiveness of the domestic wind industry. - Facilitate smooth grid integration of wind power by: - strengthening the national power grid and interregional transmission capacity, taking into consideration the integration of wind power in the design of grid expansion plans by establishing management regulations and technical specifications to integrate wind power into grid planning; - mapping out comprehensive wind power development plans on national and provincial level in consultation with the grid companies, taking into account construction of other power generation capacity, (interregional) transmission capacity as well as the specific requirements of wind power grid integration; - redoubling research efforts with regard to the analysis of the influence of extensive deployment of wind power on the operation and management of the power grid, intensifying studies on accurate wind power forecasting to allow for effective dispatch of power and establishing a national grid code for wind turbines to ensure maximum electricity output of wind farms. - Tweak FDI, CDM and wind power policies to allow for more diversity in investment and enhance the efficiency of the power sector by creating a fair and open market. Clarify wind power pricing policies and facilitate access to government subsidized bank loans. - Increase transparency within the wind industry and power sector, e.g. with regard to information on wind farm energy output and turbine availability, in order to facilitate competition and intra-industry learning processes, enable timely identification of challenges and build investor confidence. Information transparency is also necessary to improve energy demand and (wind power) supply forecasts and thus provide for proper dispatch of power plants.
Lo sfruttamento delle risorse naturali ha rappresentato la caratteristica principale dello sviluppo economico e del commercio per la maggior parte della storia mondiale. Attualmente, è generalmente accettato che lo sviluppo economico in tutto il mondo sia la causa dell'esaurimento irreversibile delle risorse naturali, del degrado ambientale e della conseguente minaccia per le generazioni future. Ciò costituisce le ragioni chiave e le sfide per ripensare i modelli economici. Le risorse ambientali sono considerate oggi come beni economici e vengono chiamate "capitale naturale". Questo vale in particolare per i mari e gli oceani. I mari e gli oceani coprono più del 70% della superficie terrestre e sono fondamentali per garantire alcuni dei bisogni fondamentali della società. Contengono il 97% di tutta l'acqua del pianeta e sostengono l'80% di tutte le forme di vita. Questi vasti ecosistemi sono tra i più grandi pozzi di carbonio del mondo, producono la metà dell'ossigeno che respiriamo e sono la fonte primaria di proteine per più di 3 miliardi di persone. I mari e gli oceani sono anche il tessuto di una grande industria che solleva questioni di sostenibilità ambientale e sociale. Quest'ultime sono al centro dell'agenda dello sviluppo sostenibile delle Nazioni Unite (ONU) entro il 2030 e non sono compatibili con un sistema incentrato sull'abuso e sullo sfruttamento dell'ambiente. Una gestione efficiente e sostenibile del capitale naturale degli oceani è quindi un obiettivo politico critico per il processo e il progresso economico. Di fatto, la crescente consapevolezza delle intense pressioni che impattano sul degrado ambientale marino ha portato gli organismi di governance stabiliti negli ultimi decenni a definire strumenti e meccanismi che permettano la conservazione e lo sviluppo più sostenibile del vasto capitale naturale che il mare e gli oceani offrono. Proprio in questa fase di ridimensionamento e di transizione verso una nuova economia sostenibile basata sugli ecosistemi marini, emerge il nuovo concetto della "Blue Economy" (BE). La BE ha recentemente guadagnato una notevole attenzione nelle agende politiche e accademiche, in linea con l'espansione della sua rilevanza rispetto ai settori economici tradizionali. Le strategie di implementazione della BE rientrano negli Obiettivi di Sviluppo Sostenibile (SDGs) delle Nazioni Unite, in particolare l'SDG 14 "Life Below Water". L'SDG 14 mira, tra le altre cose, alla prevenzione e ad una riduzione significativa dell'inquinamento marino, alla gestione sostenibile, nonché alla conservazione delle aree e degli ecosistemi marini e costieri, alla minimizzazione e reversione degli impatti dovuti all'acidificazione degli oceani, a far fronte alla pesca eccessiva, illegale e non regolamentata, all'aumento delle conoscenze scientifiche e al trasferimento di tecnologie marine sostenibili. Come tale, incorporato in queste ambizioni piuttosto all'avanguardia è il principio (e la necessità) che assicurare la crescita economica e l'occupazione devono andare di pari passo con l'imperativo della protezione e ripristino degli ambienti naturali e della lotta al cambiamento climatico. La BE permette di generare valore dagli oceani attraverso l'attuazione di pratiche sostenibili e nel rispetto della loro capacità di rigenerazione. Questo implica che l'impatto della produttività economica generata delle attività umane deve necessariamente garantire la salute e la salvaguardia degli oceani nel tempo. Sia i settori consolidati o tradizionali che quelli emergenti e innovativi della BE offrono importanti fonti di sviluppo economico sostenibile. I primi includono e riguardano le risorse marine viventi e non viventi, le attività portuali, la cantieristica navale, il trasporto marittimo e il turismo costiero. I secondi includono l'energia marina rinnovabile, la bioeconomia e le biotecnologie blu, i minerali marini, la desalinizzazione, la difesa, la sicurezza e la sorveglianza marittima, la ricerca e l'istruzione, le infrastrutture e la robotica marina. Questi settori rappresentano un potenziale significativo per la transizione verso una crescita economica sostenibile, e per la creazione di nuovi posti di lavoro. Ad oggi, i settori tradizionali della BE contribuiscono a circa 1,5% del PIL dell'Unione europea a 27 (UE-27) e forniscono circa 4,5 milioni di posti di lavoro diretti, cioè il 2,3% dell'occupazione totale dell'UE-27. Mentre i settori innovativi emergenti, come per esempio le fonti di energia rinnovabile derivata dall'oceano o le biotecnologie blu contribuiscono alla creazione di nuovi mercati e posti di lavoro. Ciò senza contare gli effetti indiretti e indotti sul reddito e l'occupazione. In questo contesto, la presente dissertazione ha due scopi principali. Il primo, quello di presentare lo stato dell'arte sulla BE nel mondo, mettendo in evidenza le sfide, le opportunità, le tendenze e il potenziale per uno sviluppo sostenibile. Il secondo, quello di servire come uno strumento di valutazione solido e in grado di favorire decisioni informate per definire nuove politiche e iniziative pertinenti. La ricerca si è sviluppata nell'ambito del programma di dottorato industriale Eureka, co-finanziato dalla Regione Marche insieme all'ISTAO - Istituto Adriano Olivetti, una tra le più antiche scuole manageriali d'Italia, fondata nel 1967 dall'economista Giorgio Fuà. Il capitolo I della tesi è una revisione della letteratura che colma il gap su come la BE possa rappresentare un modello di sviluppo economico per le istituzioni e le imprese. Lo fa adottando un approccio esplorativo per la raccolta e la revisione di una serie di contributi scientifici da considerare come più significativi e più rilevanti per analizzare come il concetto di BE si lega alla recente letteratura sullo sviluppo economico. Nello specifico, l'approccio esplorativo è stato progettato sulla base di una serie di criteri individuati in conformità con gli obiettivi dell'indagine: 1) inquadrare e valutare lo stato dell'arte sulle politiche e iniziative intraprese a livello globale; 2) rilevare le criticità e le sfide nell'attuazione di tali politiche e iniziative; 3) identificare le implicazioni e suggerimenti a livello di policy. Il capitolo II contribuisce alla letteratura emergente sullo sviluppo di una BE partecipativa presentando un modello innovativo a quadrupla elica. Questo modello non solo mette in collegamento i governi nazionali con il mondo accademico, le imprese e gli utenti, ma agisce anche come un driver che favorisce l'esposizione internazionale del paese in questo specifico settore. Attraverso un approccio esplorativo basato su una ricerca desk integrata da interviste semi-strutturate con otto esperti, il modello è testato a Qingdao, una città all'interno della Blue Economic Zone nella provincia dello Shandong, in Cina. Nel capitolo III, viene analizzata la risposta cinese alla "Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development 2021-2030", il "Decennio del Mare" delle Nazioni Unite. L'analisi di documenti ufficiali di pianificazione strategica rivelano che i leader politici cinesi attribuiscono grande considerazione e importanza agli oceani per la sopravvivenza e lo sviluppo della società umana. Dal lancio del "Decennio del Mare", che rappresenta un'importante risoluzione adottata delle Nazioni Unite per promuovere lo sviluppo sostenibile degli oceani, nonché la più importante iniziativa che eserciterà un impatto di vasta portata sul progresso della scienza e della governance marina globale, varie iniziative sono state intraprese dalla Cina per sostenere il suo impegno basato sulla cooperazione per la protezione ecologica degli oceani. Il capitolo IV conduce un'investigazione sull'industria della cantieristica navale nella Regione Marche. L'importanza del settore nel tessuto industriale regionale, in particolare nella costruzione di superyacht, ha suggerito un approfondimento mirato a valutare in che modo l'industria cantieristica possa rappresentare un driver per lo sviluppo della subfornitura artigianale, altamente qualificata e tecnologicamente avanzata, che l'ecosistema industriale della regione è già in grado di fornire. Nella stesura di questo contributo, realizzato insieme ai colleghi dell'ISTAO per conto della Fondazione Marche, è stato fatto ampio ricorso ai più recenti studi sulla cantieristica navale. È stata poi realizzata un'indagine di approfondimento che ha previsto una serie di interviste semi-strutturate con i vertici dei cantieri regionali e con una campionatura di subfornitori e aziende più rappresentativi, insieme all'incontro con alcuni testimoni privilegiati del settore. ; Natural resource exploitation has been the main feature for economic development and trade for most of global history. At present, it is generally accepted that economic development around the world is leading to the irreversible depletion of natural resources, environmental degradation and consequent threat to future generations, which are key reasons and challenges for rethinking economic patterns. Environmental resources are considered today as economic assets and called "natural capital". This particularly holds true for the seas and oceans. Seas and oceans cover more than 70% of Earth's surface and are critical in ensuring that some of society's most basic needs are met. They hold 97% of all water and sustain 80% of all life forms on the planet. These vast ecosystems are amongst the world's largest carbon sinks, produce half of the oxygen we breathe and are the primary source of proteins for more than 3 billion people worldwide. Seas and oceans are also the fabric of a large industry that raises environmental and social sustainability issues. These are at the heart of the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development agenda for 2030 which is not compatible with a system focused on abuse and exploitation of the environment. Therefore, an efficient and sustainable management of oceans' natural capital is a critical policy objective for the economic process and progress. The growing awareness of the intense pressures that cause environmental degradation of the natural wealth highlights the need for a sustainable approach. Governance bodies established over the recent decades have defined tools and mechanisms to achieving a more sustainable development allowing the preservation and sustainable uses of the natural capital. At this stage of economy reframing, a new concept of "Blue Economy" (BE) has emerged to foster the shift towards a new, ocean (marine)-based sustainable economy. BE has recently gained considerable policy and scholarly attention, in line with the expansion of its relevance on the political agenda beyond traditional economic sectors. BE implementation strategies are part of the UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), in particular SDG 14 "Life Below Water" which aims, among other things, to prevent and significantly reduce marine pollution, sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems, minimize and address the impacts of ocean acidification, regulate harvesting by ending overfishing and illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, conserve coastal and marine areas, increase scientific knowledge and transfer sustainable marine technologies. As such, embedded is this quite a cutting-edge concept is the principle (and need) that ensuring economic growth and employment must go hand in hand with the imperative of protecting and restoring nature and fighting climate change. BE enables society to obtain value from the oceans and coastal regions, whilst respecting their long-term ability to regenerate and endure such activities through the implementation of sustainable practices. This implies that human activities must be managed in a way that guarantees the health of the oceans and safeguards economic productivity, so that the potential they offer can be realized and sustained over time. Both established and emerging, innovative sectors are part of the BE and offer important sources of sustainable economic development. The former include marine living resources, marine non-living resources, marine renewable energy, port activities, shipbuilding and repair, maritime transport and coastal tourism. The latter include ocean energy (i.e. floating solar energy and offshore hydrogen generation), blue bioeconomy and biotechnology, marine minerals, desalination, maritime defence, security and surveillance, research and education and infrastructure and maritime works (submarine cables, robotics). These sectors offer significant potential for the transition to a sustainable economic growth, as well as for employment creation. For instance, BE traditional sectors contribute to about 1.5% of the European Union-27 GDP and provide about 4.5 million direct jobs, i.e. 2.3% of EU-27 total employment. Emerging innovative BE sectors, such as ocean renewable energy, blue biotechnology, and algae production are adding new markets and creating jobs. This is without counting indirect and induced income and employment effects. Against this backdrop, this dissertation has two purposes. Firstly, it provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the BE in the world, highlighting challenges, opportunities, trends, and their potential for sustainable development. Secondly, it aims to provide a stocktaking tool based on solid foundation that will enable both policy-makers and stakeholders to make informed decisions to support relevant new initiatives and policies. This dissertation has been developed within the Industrial Ph.D. program Eureka, financed by the Regional Government of the Marche along with ISTAO – The Istituto Adriano Olivetti, one of the oldest managerial schools in Italy which was founded in 1967 by the Economist Giorgio Fuà. Chapter I of the dissertation is a literature review which fills the knowledge gap on how BE can represent an economic development model for institutions and entrepreneurs. It does so by adopting an exploratory approach for the collection and review of a series of scientific contributions to be considered as most significant and most relevant in addressing how the BE discourse is tied up in recent literature on economic development. Specifically, the exploratory approach was designed based on a set of criteria identified in compliance with the objectives of the investigation: 1) frame and evaluate the state of the art with regards to policies and initiatives undertaken at global level; 2) detect critical issues and challenges in the implementation of policies and initiatives; 3) identify policy implications and suggestions. Chapter II contributes to the emerging literature on the development of a participative BE by presenting an innovative Quadruple Helix model, which not only connects domestic government, academia, firms and users but acts as a driver boosting the foreign exposure of the country in this specific domain. The model is tested in Qingdao, an exemplary city included in the Blue Economic Zone of the Shandong Province, in China, through an exploratory approach based on desk research integrated with semi-structured interviews with eight experts. In Chapter III, the Chinese response to the UN's "Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development 2021-2030" is unfolded based on documentary analysis of official planning and strategic documents. The ocean is considered of great significance by Chinese political leaders to the survival and development of human society. Accordingly, since the launch of the "Ocean Decade", which represents an important UN resolution to promote sustainable ocean development as well as the most important initiative in the coming decade that will exert a far-reaching impact on the progress of marine science and global marine governance, various initiatives have been undertaken by China in order to uphold its cooperation-based commitment to the ecological protection of oceans. Chapter IV makes the case for the shipbuilding industry in the Marche Region, in Italy. The importance of the Marche Region in the shipbuilding industry, suggested a more in-depth exploration to understand what impact the positive performance of the sector can have on the regional industrial system and how it could represent a catalyser for the system of highly qualified and technologically advanced supply chain. In writing this contribution, which was carried out together with colleagues from ISTAO on behalf of Fondazione Marche, I had ample recourse to the latest studies on the shipbuilding industry and carried out a survey investigating the sector in depth. Semi-structured interviews with top management of the most representative regional shipyards and a sample of subcontractors and companies were conducted to witness the growth of the industry. The results of the analysis provide interesting insights for policy-making to support the development of the regional shipbuilding industry and supply chain.
COVID-19 pandemic has had a far-reaching impact along the agricultural value chains in Kenya. The Kenyan government placed drastic impact measures to flatten the curve of COVID-19 infections, which affected the value chain actors differently. To counter the economic mayhem caused by the pandemic, the usefulness of digital platforms has been amplified in agricultural value chains, especially in vegetables, root and tubers. It is not clear if, how and to what extent the existing digital platforms developed by several private companies or supported by donors have contributed and are still contributing to maintaining agri-food chains functional and securing the livelihoods of associated value chain actors in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMIC) countries during COVID 19 pandemic. It is on the foregoing that International Potato Center (CIP) implemented a study to understand the role of digital platforms in maintaining the value chains of vegetable, root and tuber crops functional in the face of COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya. Web-based portal, Android mobile App and Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD) Short code services were the main digital platforms of focus. The study was built on case studies from Viazi Soko (NCPK) digital platform for farmers, Twiga food for traders and Soko Kijiji groceries digital platform for consumers. A participatory research methodology was used to integrate the desktop research, key informant/expert interviews, focus group discussion (FGD) and the surveys involving various value chain actors along the food value chain i.e., traders, transporters, consumers, and farmers. The study adopted mixed method approach with concurrent nested option. Both Quantitative and qualitative data were collected. Quantitative aspects of the study were collected using a structured questionnaire administered through face-to-face interviews to solicit primary information from 355 consumers, 100 traders and 370 farmers in the targeted sub-counties selected using multistage sampling technique. Quantitative data obtained was analyzed using Stata version 17 and SPSS version 28.0 to generate descriptive statistics. Propensity Score Matching was used to estimate the impact of the digital platforms on (i) the quantity of certified potato seeds used and (ii) the average weekly household expenditure on vegetables and fruits during the lockdown period. Structural equation model (SEM) was used to investigate (i) how producers' personality traits influence the usage of ViaziSoko for accessing quality farm Inputs and services and (ii) the role of entrepreneurial behavior in influencing use of digital platform in food purchase among consumers. For farmers, findings indicated that awareness and use of the digital platforms is still low. Approximately 32% of the interviewed farmers were aware of the digital platforms. Majority (86.55%) of those aware were medium and large-scale farmers. The use of apps through a mobile phone was the most preferred digital platform by roughly 91% of the farmers. The ease of accessing input information/services and awareness of digital application inspired the use of digital platforms. Farmers' attitude and proactiveness influenced perceived usefulness of the digital platforms. Despite being in existence even before the pandemic, most of the farmers started using digital platforms in response to the pandemic. Relatively, majority of farmers (32.05%) started using digital platforms to access quality seeds, while 12.82% started using them to access extension and advisory services on Good Advisory Practices (GAPs)as well as access to market/output information in response to the pandemic. The digital intervention contributed significantly to the increase in the frequency of use of digital platforms. The greatest increase in the frequency was observed in the services related to access to market/output information 3.85% (from 19.23% to 23.08%), extension and advisory services on GAPs 6.41% (from 16.67% to 23.08%) as well as pest and disease advisory services 6.41% (from 12.82% to 19.23%) respectively. The digital platform showed a gradual role in bridging the gap in terms of input access by farmers during the pandemic and approximately 95% of the interviewed farmers confirmed their intention to continue using the digital platforms (ViaziSoko) beyond the pandemic. For traders, the results revealed that most of them had procured their supplies over the mobile phone (91%) and through online platform (81%). On average, a single trader dealt in 16 different products. Vegetables was the most traded commodity across the three tie periods of analysis compared to roots and tubers. Fear or worry of getting infected with COVID-19 and liquidity constrain were the major threats affecting the business. Most of the traders procured their supplies from Nakuru before and during COVID-19 (77.97% and 88.52%). The increase in supplies during COVID-19 for Nakuru county resulted from Twiga foods supplies. Other traders procured their supplies from Nyandurua, Meru and Narok county. The quantity of vegetables and fruits sold to direct consumers, brokers/agents and sold to other outlets increased during COVID-19. Most traders (90.12%) started using online platform and 82.35% social media in response to the pandemic. Despite being the most adopted strategy in response to the pandemic, about 15% of traders are likely to cease or reduce the use of mobile phones to procure their supplies. This could be attributed to the high transaction costs involved in making payments for the supplies. Further, based on the perishability nature of agricultural products, traders would wish to physically see and choose products before making payments. Major sales and distribution strategies used in response to the pandemic are sales and distribution through social media (54.55%) and online platform (66.67%). Majority of traders (86%) reported to have made payments and financing electronically followed by advancing products as in-kind/trade creditors (73%) and lending cash to business partners (72%). Change in business working hours to avoid curfew and travel restrictions (90%) as well as the use of own savings to support business operation (86%) were the major business adaptation strategies used by traders. For consumers, about 41% used digital platforms to purchase fruits and vegetables out of which 97% of them used mobile application. Convenience (95.86%) and fear of health-related complication (84.83%) were the major motivational factors to use digital platforms. COVID-19 pandemic increased the demand for digital platforms among 85% of the consumers (where 63% started using and 22% increased the use digital platforms). About 81% of consumers were mainly using digital platforms to access market information. Consumer willingness to adopt the digital platform was influenced positively by group membership and negatively by age and education level of the household head and the dependency ratio. Group membership were basically social and informal groups in the urban areas where among other issues consumers discuss food and digital related issues as well as procurement strategies) Most consumers (76.56%) purchased fruits and vegetables from designated points followed by local retailers in the neighborhood (49.26%). Digital platforms gained popularity (from 13.35% to 38.53%) during the pandemic compared to other channels Streetcar booths (2.83%) was a new channel during the pandemic. Despite reducing popularity during the pandemic, designated markets channel supported about 48% of the proportion of purchase. Users of digital platform experienced fluctuating but above average in the weekly expenditure compared to their counterparts. Change in price of the vegetables and fruits was the major contributor to the fluctuation (90.54%). Findings revealed that at one point in time during the pandemic. all sampled consumers who purchased through the digital platform used mobile money transfer to make pay for fruits and vegetables, with 99.31% likely to continue using the platform beyond the pandemic. In terms of entrepreneurial behavior, proactiveness and Innovativeness positively and significantly influenced perceived behavioral control. This implies that the more a consumer acts in anticipation of future problems, needs, or changes and use of new ideas or methods, the more they will think of themselves as having the efficacy to use the digital platforms in purchasing vegetables. Attitude positively and significantly influence perceived usefulness implying that the more favorable a consumer's opinion of the vegetables purchasing digital tool is, the more the consumer will view the tool as useful. Perceived behavioral control influenced perceived usefulness positively implying that the more consumers considered themselves to have the ability to use the vegetables purchasing digital tool, the higher they will consider the tool as useful. Subjective norm was also found to positively and significantly influence perceived usefulness meaning that the more positive the consumer's peers' opinion about the vegetables purchasing digital tool is, the more the consumer will view the tool as useful. The study recommends the following suggestions: • It is clear agritech companies seeing pandemic is an opportunity for strengthening food value chain. However, they still lack sustainable business models for the agriculture contexts. Therefore, design for digital platforms need to integrate sustainable business models to avoid collapsing of the platforms due to heavy reliance on external support and inadequate revenue models. Adoption of a self-sustainable business approach as well as re-orienting the business approach towards public private partnerships and diversifying product/service portfolio by integrating different services and value chains, backward and forward integration to create new revenue streams provides some of the options for consideration by service providers. • Develop a framework for embedding farmer oriented in existing local extension services to support practical implementation of agronomic recommendations. • Enhancing entrepreneur behavior of farmers and traders is critical in adoption of agri-digital solutions. • Building agile business with flexibility to adjust to various shocks beyond the pandemic. Focusing on the transition post COVID will be critical in maintaining the business space of the digital platforms by building strong market offering. • Donor support is critical for digital startups at the beginning of the business as many startups are coming up during this pandemic time, however, it is critical for donor to analyze their business model for sustainability of digital platform especially the platforms with little or no commercial orientation but have a clear welfare gain with social enterprise business model. • Strong bio-security measures in the context of COVID-19 are important in enhancing trust especially in product handling by the agricultural digital service providers. • Combined county permits to allow one easily transaction in any county with fresh produce among digital platforms with strong cross county distribution of products to traders. This has implication in increasing cost of business. • Product differentiation is key in making the digital platforms competitiveness. Strong focus of the digital platforms in providing unique products and solutions in ever-changing environment is key in keeping pace with consumers dynamic needs, key among them Enhance interactiveness between agricultural digital solutions and clients e.g. chatbot Integrating youth entrepreneurs and higher education students to support development of ICT related agri solutions e.g., accessible database by use of USSD code for vendors to easily authenticate the quality of the produce as well as data science. This will facilitate creation of robust learning curve to trigger development of marketable and viable agricultural digital services.
As a cradle of ancient Chinese civilization, the Yellow River Basin has a very long human-environment interrelationship, where early anthropogenic activities re- sulted in large scale landscape modifications. Today, the impact of this relationship has intensified further as the basin plays a vital role for China's continued economic development. It is one of the most densely-populated, fastest growing, and most dynamic regions of China with abundant natural and environmental resources providing a livelihood for almost 190 million people. Triggered by fundamental economic reforms, the basin has witnessed a spectacular economic boom during the last decades and can be considered as an exemplary blueprint region for contemporary dynamic Global Change processes occurring throughout the country, which is currently transitioning from an agrarian-dominated economy into a modern urbanized society. However, this resourcesdemanding growth has led to profound land use changes with adverse effects on the Yellow River social-ecological systems, where complex challenges arise threatening a long-term sustainable development. Consistent and continuous remote sensing-based monitoring of recent and past land cover and land use change is a fundamental requirement to mitigate the adverse impacts of Global Change processes. Nowadays, technical advancement and the multitude of available satellite sensors, in combination with the opening of data archives, allow the creation of new research perspectives in regional land cover applications over heterogeneous landscapes at large spatial scales. Despite the urgent need to better understand the prevailing dynamics and underlying factors influencing the current processes, detailed regional specific land cover data and change information are surprisingly absent for this region. In view of the noted research gaps and contemporary developments, three major objectives are defined in this thesis. First (i), the current and most pressing social-ecological challenges are elaborated and policy and management instruments towards more sustainability are discussed. Second (ii), this thesis provides new and improved insights on the current land cover state and dynamics of the entire Yellow River Basin. Finally (iii), the most dominant processes related to mining, agriculture, forest, and urban dynamics are determined on finer spatial and temporal scales. The complex and manifold problems and challenges that result from long-term abuse of the water and land resources in the basin have been underpinned by policy choices, cultural attitude, and institutions that have evolved over centuries in China. The tremendous economic growth that has been mainly achieved by extracting water and exploiting land resources in a rigorous, but unsustainable manner, might not only offset the economic benefits, but could also foster social unrest. Since the early emergence of the first Chinese dynasties, flooding was considered historically as a primary issue in river management and major achievements have been made to tame the wild nature of the Yellow River. Whereas flooding is therefore largely now under control, new environmental and social problems have evolved, including soil and water pollution, ecological degradation, biodiversity decline, and food security, all being further aggravated by anthropogenic climate change. To resolve the contemporary and complex challenges, many individual environmental laws and regulations have been enacted by various Chinese ministries. However, these policies often pursue different, often contradictory goals, are too general to tackle specific problems and are usually implemented by a strong top-down approach. Recently, more flexible economic and market-based incentives (pricing, tradable permits, investments) have been successfully adopted, which are specifically tailored to the respective needs, shifting now away from the pure command and regulating instruments. One way towards a more holistic and integrated river basin management could be the establishment of a common platform (e.g. a Geographical Information System) for data handling and sharing, possibly operated by the Yellow River Basin Conservancy Commission (YRCC), where available spatial data, statistical information and in-situ measures are coalesced, on which sustainable decision-making could be based. So far, the collected data is hardly accessible, fragmented, inconsistent, or outdated. The first step to address the absence and lack of consistent and spatially up-to-date information for the entire basin capturing the heterogeneous landscape conditions was taken up in this thesis. Land cover characteristics and dynamics were derived from the last decade for the years 2003 and 2013, based on optical medium-resolution hightemporal MODIS Normalized Differenced Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series at 250 m. To minimize the inherent influence of atmospheric and geometric interferences found in raw high temporal data, the applied adaptive Savitzky-Golay filter successfully smoothed the time series and substantially reduced noise. Based on the smoothed time series data, a large variety of intra-annual phenology metrics as well as spectral and multispectral annual statistics were derived, which served as input variables for random forest (RF) classifiers. High quality reference data sets were derived from very high resolution imagery for each year independently of which 70 % trained the RF models. The accuracy assessments for all regionally specific defined thematic classes were based on the remaining 30 % reference data split and yielded overall accuracies of 87 % and 84 % for 2003 and 2013, respectively. The first regional adapted Yellow River Land Cover Products (YRB LC) depict the detail spatial extent and distribution of the current land cover status and dynamics. The novel products overall differentiate overall 18 land cover and use classes, including classes of natural vegetation (terrestrial and aquatic), cultivated classes, mosaic classes, non-vegetated, and artificial classes, which are not presented in previous land cover studies so far. Building on this, an extended multi-faceted land cover analysis on the most prominent land cover change types at finer spatial and temporal scales provides a better and more detailed picture of the Yellow River Basin dynamics. Precise spatio-temporal products about mining, agriculture, forest, and urban areas were examined from long-trem Landsat satellite time series monitored at annual scales to capture the rapid rate of change in four selected focus regions. All archived Landsat images between 2000 and 2015 were used to derive spatially continuous spectral-temporal, multi-spectral, and textural metrics. For each thematic region and year RF models were built, trained and tested based on a stablepixels reference data set. The automated adaptive signature (AASG) algorithm identifies those pixels that did not change between the investigated time periods to generate a mono-temporal reference stable-pixels data set to keep manual sampling requirements to a minimum level. Derived results gained high accuracies ranging from 88 % to 98 %. Throughout the basin, afforestation on the Central Loess Plateau and urban sprawl are identified as most prominent drivers of land cover change, whereas agricultural land remained stable, only showing local small-scale dynamics. Mining operations started in 2004 on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which resulted in a substantial loss of pristine alpine meadows and wetlands. In this thesis, a novel and unique regional specific view of current and past land cover characteristics in a complex and heterogeneous landscape was presented by using a multi-source remote sensing approach. The delineated products hold great potential for various model and management applications. They could serve as valuable components for effective and sustainable land and water management to adapt and mitigate the predicted consequences of Global Change processes. ; Der Gelbe Fluss - in der Landessprache Huange He genannt - ist für die Ausprägung und Entwicklung der chinesischen Kultur von großer Bedeutung. Aufgrund der frühen Einflussnahme auf die natürlichen Ökosysteme in dieser Region durch den Menschen, entwickelte sich dort eine ausgeprägte Interaktion zwischen Mensch und Umwelt. Diese Wechselbeziehung hat sich infolge der gegenwärtigen rapiden sozioökonomischen Veränderungen in den letzten Jahrzehnten weiter intensiviert. Das Einzugsgebiet des Gelben Flusses bildet die Lebensgrundlage für fast 190 Millionen Menschen, die zum Großteil von natürlichen Ressourcen abhängig sind. Zudem gehört es zu den wirtschaftlich bedeutendsten und am schnellsten wachsenden Regionen in ganz China. Durch weitreichende Reformen wurde ein wirtschaftlicher Aufstieg forciert, um den Agrarstaat China zu einem modernen Industrie- und Dienstleistungsstaat weiterzuentwickeln. Ein derartiges rasantes wie auch ressourcenintensives Wirtschaftswachstum führte schließlich zu einem enormen Wandel in den Bereichen der Landbedeckung und Landnutzung. Hinzu kamen neue und komplexere wirtschafts-, sozial- und umweltpolitische Herausforderungen, die bis heute eine langfristige und nachhaltige Entwicklung der Region gefährden. Aus diesem Blickwinkel kann das Becken des Gelben Flusses als regionales Spiegelbild der durch den Globalen Wandel bedingten, gegenwärtigen Veränderungsprozesse in ganz China gelten. Eine wichtige Voraussetzung für den adäquaten Umgang mit den Herausforderungen des Globalen Wandels sind kontinuierliche Informationen über aktuelle sowie historische Veränderungen von Landbedeckung und Landnutzung. Infolge der technologischen Entwicklung steht heute eine Vielfalt an Satellitenbildsystemen mit immer höherer zeitlicher und räumlicher Auflösung zur Verfügung. In Verbindung mit kostenfreien und offenen Datenzugriffen ist es möglich, daraus neue Forschungsperspektiven im Bereich der Landoberflächenkartierung - insbesondere für heterogene Landschaften - zu entwickeln. Zur Generierung thematischer Karten werden häufig Klassifikationen entlang verschiedener räumlicher und zeitlicher Skalen vollzogen. Daraus können zusätzlich die nötigen Informationen für lokale wie auch regionale Entscheidungsträger abgeleitet werden. Trotz dieser neuen Möglichkeiten sind regionalspezifische Informationen, die einem besseren Verständnis der Dynamiken von Landoberflächen im Bereich des Gelben-Fluss-Beckens dienen, noch rar. Dieses Forschungsdesiderat wurde im Rahmen dieser Arbeit aufgegriffen, wobei folgende Schwerpunkte gesetzt werden: (i) Zunächst werden die vorherrschenden sozioökologischen Herausforderungen für das gesamte Einzugsgebiet des Gelben Flusses dargestellt sowie verschiedene Management- sowie Politikmodelle für eine nachhaltigere Ressourcennutzung diskutiert. (ii) Darauf aufbauend wird die fernerkundliche Ableitung von Landbedeckungs- und Landnutzungsveränderungen der letzten Dekade im Gebiet des gesamten Gelben Flusses flächendeckend durchgeführt und anschließend interpretiert. (iii) Im letzten Schritt werden basierend auf den zuvor abgeleiteten Informationsprodukten die dominierenden Landoberflächendynamiken in höherer zeitlicher und räumlicher Auflösung detailliert untersucht. Insbesondere die dynamischen Prozesse der Minenausbreitung, Landwirtschaft, Waldgebiete und der urbanen Räume rücken in den Fokus. Aufgrund jahrzehntelanger Übernutzung der natürlichen Ressourcen im Gebiet des Gelben Flusses in Verbindung mit politischen Entscheidungen, der vorherrschenden kulturellen Prägung wie auch der Entwicklung der dort ansässigen Institutionen ist eine vielschichtige Problematik entstanden, die für die gesamte Region eine große Herausforderung darstellt. Durch frühzeitige Maßnahmen der Flutbekämpfung und Flussregulierung konnte den zahlreichen Überflutungen der Vergangenheit entgegengewirkt und das Risiko großflächiger Überschwemmungen minimiert werden. Trotz dieser Erfolge ergeben sich laufend neue, komplexere Herausforderungen mit verheerenden Auswirkungen auf Ökologie und Gesellschaft, wie zum Beispiel Boden- und Wasserdegradation, Entwaldung, Rückgang der Artenvielfalt, Ernährungsunsicherheiten und ein steigendes soziales Ungleichgewicht. Durch den anthropogenen Klimawandel werden diese negativen Probleme noch weiter verstärkt. Zwar wurden sie von der chinesischen Regierung als solche erkannt, dennoch scheiterten die Versuche, mit zahlreichen Gesetzen und Verordnungen die genannten Folgen einzudämmen, an unkonkreten Formulierungen, so dass diese der Komplexität der Herausforderungen nicht gerecht wurden. Die in jüngster Zeit verfolgten modernen und deutlich flexibleren, marktorientierten Ansätze (z.B. Subventionen, Wasserzertifikate), die speziell an die lokalen Gegebenheiten angepasst wurden, zeigen bereits Erfolge. Mit Hilfe einer gemeinsamen Daten- und Informationsplattform, beispielsweise in Form eines Geographischen Informationssystems (GIS), wäre eine integrierte und holistische Flussmanagementstrategie für den Gelben Fluss leichter realisierbar. Auf diese Weise könnten alle verfügbaren statistischen-, räumlichen- und Feldaufnahmen gespeichert, harmonisiert und geteilt und so die bisher noch unvollständigen und veralteten Daten laufend aktualisiert werden. Die Flussbehörde des Gelben Flusses (Yellow River Conservancy Commission) böte sich an, ein solches System zu verwalten. In dieser Arbeit wird die heterogene Landbedeckungsstruktur für das gesamte Einzugsgebiet des Gelben Flusses für die Jahre 2003 und 2013 erfasst und interpretiert. Die fernerkundlichen Eingangsdaten für die einzelnen Klassifikationen bestehen aus optischen MODIS NDVI-Zeitserien, aus denen jährlich phänologische Parameter berechnet werden. Da die Qualität optischer Satellitenbilder häufig durch Wolken und Schatten beeinträchtigt ist, müssen die betroffenen Flächen maskiert und entfernt werden. Die so entstandenen Lücken in der Zeitserie werden durch einen Filteralgorithmus (SavitskyGolay) aufgefüllt und geglättet. Die verwendeten RandomForest-Klassifikationsverfahren ermöglichen die Ableitung von Landbedeckungen und -dynamiken. Diese neuen und räumlich detaillierten Produkte unterscheiden insgesamt 18 verschiedene Landbedeckungsund Landnutzungsklassen. Erstmals liefern diese eine regional spezifische Charakterisierung der vorherrschenden Landbedeckung im Gebiet des Gelben Flusses. Darauf aufbauend erfolgt eine sowohl zeitlich als auch räumlich detailliertere Untersuchung der wichtigsten Veränderungen im Bereich der Landbedeckung, die auf dichten Landsat-Zeitserien basiert. Jährliche Informationen über Dynamiken von Minenabbaugebieten, Landwirtschaft, Waldgebieten und urbanen Räumen zeigen präzise lokale Veränderungen im Einzugsgebiet des Gelben Flusses. Die daraus abgeleiteten Ergebnisse lassen insbesondere auf dem Lössplateau die Auswirkungen ökologischer Restorationsmaßnahmen erkennen, bei denen degradierte Flächen in Waldsysteme umgewandelt wurden. Auf dem Qinghai-Tibet-Plateau zeigt sich eine dramatische Ausbreitung von Kohletagebau zu Lasten der besonders anfälligen alpinen Matten und Feuchtgebiete. Auch der anhaltende Trend zur Urbanisierung spiegelt sich in den hier gewonnenen Ergebnissen deutlich wider. Durch die Kombination von Fernerkundungsdaten unterschiedlicher räumlicher und zeitlicher Auflösungen liefert diese Arbeit neue und bisher einzigartige Einblicke in historische und aktuelle Landbedeckungsdynamiken einer heterogenen Landschaft. Die regionalen Analysen wie auch die thematischen Informationsprodukte besitzen somit großes Potential zur Verbesserung der Informationsgrundlage. Die Ergebnisse dienen außerdem als aussagekräftige Entscheidungsgrundlage mit dem Ziel eines angemessenen und nachhaltigen Land- und Wassermanagements für die natürlichen Ökosysteme im Becken des Gelben Flusses.
*Bayartsengel Damdinjav, Chuck Davis, Steven Jones, Zach Long, Claudia Risner, Sydney Sheppard, Christina Slentz Climate change is the global challenge of the twenty-first century, a threat that carries dire environmental, social, security, and economic implications for every region of the world. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the primary driver of climate change is the increase in greenhouse gas emissions attributed to human activities. Although climate change must be met with a comprehensive global response in order to effectively address the effects of harmful greenhouse gases (GHG), these efforts depend on the actions taking place within nations. The United States, the greatest per-capita emitter of GHG, and China, that produces the largest amount of GHG overall, bear a good deal of responsibility for the problem. The United States, in particular, with its rejection of the Kyoto Protocol and its inability to craft a viable climate change agenda, has failed to offer the leadership needed to secure meaningful reductions in GHG. This essay seeks to establish perspective by profiling the political, social, and economic circumstances within six nations (three advanced industrial countries and three newly modernizing countries) and the European Union (EU) in order to better understand the dynamics involved in achieving a global solution to climate change.Case Studies1.- European UnionThe European Union has led the push for climate change regulationsto curb emissions 30% by 2030 and 80%-95% by 2050. To reach that goal, it has invested significant funds targetting 20% of the EU budget from 2014-2020 towards climate related measures. The EU believes that climate change policies will not only preserve the planet for generations to come but will also create greater long-term health and economic benefits. This position can be attributed to the lack of politicization of climate change in the EU allowing politicians to advocate forward thinking policies without the constant fear of political or electoral retribution. Furthermore, the close proximity of EU member states and their relatively small size creates an "all in this together" mentality allowing them to harness their resources to compete with larger world powers.2.- United KingdomWidely acknowledged as one of the foremost countries addressing climate change, the United Kingdom moved definitively to establish a science-based framework for approaching this global phenomenon even prior to the Earth Summit in Rio in 1992. This de-politicizing effort is revealed in the staunch support of conservatives like Margaret Thatcher, whose instrumental leadership set this critical tone and aided in the formation of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 1990, and Tony Blair, who seized his 2005 G-8 presidential term as an opportunity to promote the reduction of GHG through mitigation technologies, sustainable energy, and adaptation strategies. The UK has fostered domestic integration of climate and energy policies to reduce ill effects at home as well as international cooperation in the form of a post-Kyoto strategy and the ongoing European Union's Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), designed to blend climate change collaborative goals of equity distribution and cost effectiveness.3.- CanadaCanada's efforts to address climate change can be best described as leaping forward, stepping back and, finally, standing in place. An original early proponent for mitigation since 1975, under the Chrétien administration in the 1990s, the country committed to relatively aggressive reductions - - a 30% decrease over projected 2010 emissions - - as part of the Kyoto Protocol. However, a clear implementation plan proved elusive until 2005, at which time "Project Green" successfully established meaningful initiatives. Although temporarily rolled back the following year under the more business-friendly Harper administration, a brief surge in climate change public awareness subsequently forced the return of some mitigation initiatives. Currently, climate change policy stagnation is largely explained by prioritizing economic growth over environmental concernsparticularly in the wake of the 2008 Credit Crisis.It is further complicated by Canada's neighbor to the south - - the administration of President Barack Obama who supports addressing GHG emissions and a clean energy future.4.- AustraliaAustralia's international position on climate change reflects its domestic policy agenda. For the first 10-years of the Kyoto Protocol, 1997-2007, Australia was a climate change laggard based on both its refusal to ratify the agreement and its largely symbolic GHG reduction policies. In 2007, Australia ratified the Protocol and implemented stringent abatement policies but is now reversing course. What caused the shifts Down Under? Two domestic factors, electoral interests and political leadership, are most influential. Compared to economic growth, voters' prioritization of environmental issues rose until 2007 and then declined. The political leadership within the Coalition government (1996-2007, reelected in 2013) favors business and the fossil fuel industry, and is skeptical of climate change. This stands in contrast to the Labor Party (2007-2013) that favors GHG emissions reductions. So, although Australia has committed internationally to a 5% reduction of 2000 level emissions by 2020, it still lacks a consistent domestic policy to achieve this goal. Russia Russia experienced massive industrial decline in the immediate aftermath of the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991. Despite the fact that there has been a significant reduction of GHG emissions, Russia still ranks third on the list of the largest greenhouse gas emitters in the world. Problems caused by climate change in recent decades include public health risks, increased recurrence, intensity and duration of droughts in some regions, extreme precipitation patterns, floods, and over-moisturized soil and permafrost degradation in the northern regions. However, the climate change issue does not constitute a priority for Russian authorities. Several internal factors, such as a well-rooted skepticism within the Russian scientific community towards anthropogenic global warming, low environmental awareness among Russian citizens, and the priority given to the country's economic restoration, suggests that Russian climate policy is to a great extent being driven by the pursuit of benefits in areas other than that of environmental policy.ChinaOne of the best ways to summarize China's approach to climate change is via a domestic politics model. Decisionmakers involved in China's climate change policy belong to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and there is little or no foreign influence over them. Among these decision makers, the most influential have managed to frame the issue as one of sovereignty and economic development. These hardliners see climate change as an issue that threatens China's sovereignty and its right to develop economically. As such, it has taken a stance of not joining any multilateral agreement until the U.S. does so. Thus, China's right to develop economically is assured. Domestically, China has made progress developing solar and wind technology for domestic use and for foreign markets. However, it continues to use fossil fuels, especially coal,to ensure that it develops along the lines deemed acceptable to the CCP.IndiaIndia's position on climate change is guided by two priorities - - namely, sustainable development and the elimination of poverty. With a growing economy that demands more energy for growth, there are hundreds of millions of people without access to electricity in India. Energy use and consequently greenhouse gas emissions will grow substantially in the coming decades. As a modernizing country, India is not bound to any GHG emission reduction goals under the Kyoto Protocol. However, it has established a National Action Plan on Climate Change and implemented a combination of mitigation and adaptation policies to reduce the country's contributions to climate change. These policies include energy conservation, promotion of renewable energy, abatement of air pollution among others. While India's development will require growth in energy use, the country must work to reduce the energy intensity of its production processes.Comparative AnalysisOn the basis of political, economic and social factors, a comparative analysis of the case studies reveals three key groupings: supporters of international climate change policy that involves implementing significant carbon mitigation reduction requirements; fickle hesitators who, if cooperative, face major reduction requirements; and unburdened supporters who face little-to-no mitigation requirements. The EU and the UK, as a climate change leader, fall into the first category, politically defined as highly democratic and economically and regionally integrated. The EU and the UK have softened views on sovereignty, have historically utilized the market for political/social ends, and normatively seek international cooperation as a means of reducing risk.For Canada and Australia,reduced support for international action on climate change is largely based on modern era socio-political attitudes and a perceived threat to their economic viability. Stemming from strong political views on state sovereignty, they are historically less likely to cooperate on international initiatives and, unlike the economically integrated EU and UK, are not willing to constrain markets in the name of political or social ends. These nations traditionally prefer individualistic as opposed to collective responses to major issues and consequently see cooperative action as risky.The newly modernizing countries of China, India and Russia exhibit different degrees of democracy and are not economically integrated nor fully industrialized. While highly centralized political authority is helpful in making international level commitments, enforcement capacity is hindered domestically. Willingness to cooperate is generally conditional upon gaining financial assistance and technical support needed for development. For China and Russia, the first priority is maintaining state authority and social well-being for the sake of stability. Environmental policy is put forward only when these priorities are not threatened. For India, the focus centers on lifting its population out of poverty that takes precedence over international climate change cooperation.ConclusionOverall, countries willing to cooperate internationally and make sacrifices to mitigate the causes of climate change perceive a lower economic and political threat for doing so than countries that refuse. In fact, the supporters of international climate change policy are more likely to view global warming as an all-encompassing economic, political, and social threat rather than as a discrete environmental threat. Having said this, they also see potential opportunities in assuming the role of early adaptors to climate change.Countries reluctant to support international cooperation face domestic political barriers that the comparative analysis above indicates is due primarily to economic perceptions and viability. Some countries that have rejected a commitment to international cooperation have, in fact, implemented national or sub-state abatement policies. At the same time, others ignore the threat entirely.In short, differences in behavior toward climate change indicates that not all countries perceive the threat the same. The task for climate change leaders, therefore, is to maintain their resolve to educate global populations such that perceptions of economic risk become less significant than perceptions of climate change risk. At the same time, they must offer best practices of reducing compliance costs and sharing knowledgeto build a clean energy agenda in order to ensure a sustainable global solution to climate change. *Students in the Graduate Program in International StudiesOld Dominion University, USAUnder the Direction of Professor Glen Sussman
Hacia fines de Septiembre tendrán lugar en Venezuela las elecciones legislativas para su Asamblea Nacional. Como resultado de la fallida estrategia abstencionista adoptada por las fuerzas opositoras durante las legislativas de 2005, este órgano de gobierno se encuentra ampliamente dominado por el Chavismo. Aquella derrota dejó su enseñanza y los opositores se reorganizaron logrando la mayoría para el "No" en el plebiscito lanzado por Chávez durante 2007; plebiscito que tenía la intención de lograr una reforma constitucional que posibilitara su reelección indefinida. Este objetivo, sin embargo, sería alcanzado por Chávez en Enero de 2009, al tiempo que se hacía evidente la siguiente situación: en tanto ninguna fuerza opositora logre erigirse como legítima representante de un proyecto reformista, democrático y popular, las bases del chavismo seguirán respondiendo al llamado de su líder. Esto pese a la decadente situación económica, social y política que afecta al conjunto de la sociedad venezolana. Ocurre que habiendo visto postergadas las respuestas a diversas problemáticas durante tanto tiempo, las clases pobres y sectores de la estrecha clase media venezolana no son permeables al discurso opositor, elaborado, básicamente, en torno a la condena al estilo antidemocrático del gobierno de Hugo Chávez. Para peor, las credenciales democráticas de muchos de estos críticos se vieron seriamente afectadas por su participación o apoyo al frustrado golpe de Estado de 2002. En tal contexto: a) el progresivo recorte de las libertades individuales y políticas, b) el avance sobre la propiedad privada, c) el estricto control de los medios de comunicación, d) el creciente uso de la intimidación y la violencia, e) la estigmatización de imaginarios enemigos externos, y f) la depredación de la otrora eficiente industria petrolera, son los fundamentos en que se apoya el régimen Chavista. Son comprensibles entonces las expectativas depositadas por distintos actores domésticos e internacionales en las próximas elecciones. De acuerdo a las razones antes enumeradas, el caso de Venezuela puede comprenderse empleando el concepto de illiberal democracy introducido por Fareed Zakaria. (1) El chavismo puede autodefinirse formalmente democrático por celebrar elecciones, pero ha hecho a un lado el conjunto de garantías y libertades propias de la tradición liberal, sin las cuales no es posible organizarse efectivamente para la competencia democrática. Chávez ha demostrado gran capacidad para controlar a la sociedad venezolana operando sobre distintas variables en el nivel doméstico. Sin embargo, el futuro de Venezuela está tan atado al mercado mundial del petróleo como lo estuvo su pasado, y en este mercado no existen artilugios retóricos, políticos, legales o militares capaces de alterar cuestiones tan objetivas como el volumen de petróleo exportado, la inversión requerida, la ubicación geográfica de las refinerías que procesan el petróleo extra-pesado y ácido de Venezuela, o el rol de Arabia Saudita al interior de la OPEC. Recientemente se ha re-abierto el debate en torno a los motivos del fracaso del proyecto industrial-nacional venezolano que tuvo por corolario el Caracazo de 1989.(2) Durante años la tesis de la "paradox of plenty" presentada por Terry Karl (3) explicó el destino venezolano a partir de una causalidad entre la abundancia de petróleo y el surgimiento de aparatos estatales centralizados, corruptos e ineficientes que daban lugar a luchas facciosas por la captura de la renta. De acuerdo a esta tesis fueron tales luchas las que descompusieron el sistema de partidos venezolano hasta hacerlo colapsar. Jonathan Di John, en su reciente libro,(4) ha enfatizado el rol que juegan las estrategias políticas de desarrollo, de modo tal que puedan comprenderse las diferencias en la performance venezolana previa a la década del 80' y con posterioridad a esta. Sin profundizar este debate, basta destacar aquí que Venezuela es altamente dependiente de su industria petrolera y que la misma se encuentra en un profundo estado de decadencia.DependenciaLa dependencia venezolana respecto del petróleo se expresa tanto en el plano doméstico como en el internacional. Fronteras adentro, Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) es la mayor empleadora de fuerza de trabajo venezolana. Es responsable de dos terceras partes del PBI, del 50% de los ingresos gubernamentales, y del 80% de las exportaciones nacionales. (5) No resulta exagerado decir que lo que sucede en PDVSA se refleja inexorablemente en la sociedad venezolana. La exportación de petróleo ha sido en el pasado, y es en la actualidad, lo que hace posible el financiamiento de toda política gubernamental. En el mercado mundial del crudo, cuya elevada integración comercial ha dado lugar a la expresión "todo el petróleo proviene del mismo barril," Venezuela no sólo es dependiente del mercado estadounidense, sino que no puede escapar de las dinámicas globales que determinan el precio del crudo o el tipo de combustible demandado. Los volúmenes de petróleo importado por los EE.UU. proveen a Venezuela el 80% de sus divisas. Además, es en este país en donde se encuentran instaladas las refinerías y distribuidoras Venezolanas Citgo, creadas durante la década del 60'. Este complejo es capaz de procesar el pesado y ácido petróleo venezolano que llega al país luego de navegar por mar tan sólo cinco días. Si bien Chávez ha publicitado pomposamente los acuerdos comerciales con China, el país asiático aún no posee instalaciones para refinar el crudo. Mientras que la construcción de éstas supone una empresa billonaria. Por otra parte, las transacciones con China son encarecidas por el costo que implica trasportar durante seis semanas el crudo desde costas caribeñas al oriente asiático. DecadenciaEn respuesta a la huelga que los trabajadores de PDVSA llevaron adelante en 2002, Chávez despidió a 19.000 de los entonces 39.000 empleados. Entre los despedidos se encontraban dos tercios de los operarios más calificados: ingenieros y directores formados en la empresa durante décadas.(6) Los conflictos gremiales no han concluido y la expertise perdida no ha sido recuperada. Las estimaciones más confiables calculan que los volúmenes exportados por PDVSA han sufrido una reducción del 42% en el período que se extiende de 1997 a 2008, habiendo exportado 2,95 y 1,71 millones de barriles diarios respectivamente.(7) Mientras los EE.UU no han tenido inconvenientes para reemplazar el petróleo venezolano por petróleo nigeriano, el país de Chávez ha experimentado una pérdida neta de sus ganancias por exportación. Tan grave como el hecho de haberse reducido sus volúmenes de producción y exportación es que la empresa nacional venezolana se encuentra trabajando en su máxima capacidad; viéndose desprovista de lo que representa en el mercado mundial del petróleo el mayor atributo de poder de un productor: la capacidad ociosa instalada. Si bien las posibilidades reales que posee la OPEC para actuar como un cartel regulando el precio del crudo a partir del control de los volúmenes que ingresan al mercado son objeto de debate, no caben dudas de que en ciertas coyunturas Arabia Saudita ha demostrado tener ese poder, así como la voluntad política para utilizarlo. Este país posee las mayores reservas comprobadas, y dada su dotación de recursos, su política petrolera consiste en la venta sostenida y estable de grandes volúmenes en el largo plazo. Un jugador así en un mercado tan integrado representa un obstáculo formidable para actores como Chávez, que sin preocuparse por los volúmenes producidos buscan realizar ventas al mayor precio posible especulando durante coyunturas geopolíticas o alzas de precios traccionadas por la demanda. Si Brasil ingresara a la OPEC en el futuro cercano con una política afín a la de Arabia Saudita, la decadencia de Venezuela sería puesta aún más en evidencia. El pico alcanzado por el precio del petróleo en 2008 debido a la pérdida de capacidad ociosa a nivel global fue un fenómeno pluricausal: 1) los mercados de países desarrollados exigen cada vez más combustibles altamente refinados generando un cuello de botellas en las refinerías, 2) las crisis políticas en países productores como Iraq, Venezuela, Irán y Nigeria resultaron en ansiedad y reducciones reales, 3) durante el periodo 2004-2006 la creciente demanda de China e India se hizo sentir en los mercados.(8) El boom ha pasado y la experiencia histórica demuestra que al repuntar la demanda, esta nunca alcanza niveles previos dado que los consumidores introducen medidas de reducción del consumo.Hugo Chávez se vio beneficiado por un boom petrolero que le permitió contar con cuantiosas sumas de dinero y financiar así sus políticas internas. Sin embargo, la industria petrolera que proveyó dicho bienestar se encuentra en profunda decadencia y revertir tal proceso implicaría un proyecto de inversiones billonarias y trabajo sostenido en el largo plazo. Chávez y sus acólitos no parecen querer dedicarse a dicha iniciativa. Las compras millonarias de armamentos a Rusia o los ruidosos vínculos con el régimen iraní, no contribuyen en nada para alterar estos hechos, sino que anegan cada vez más al gobierno venezolano en el lodo de la confrontación a nivel internacional. Las reservas de petróleo venezolano se cuentan entre las principales del mundo y por tal motivo seguirán pesando en el mercado global. En la actualidad, los países consumidores y las compañías privadas han aprendido a vincularse con Venezuela de manera cautelosa, adoptando estrategias adaptativas. Trágicamente, la sociedad civil venezolana se encuentra en una disímil situación: tiene que enfrentar un constante deterioro de su calidad de vida y convivir con la reducción de las divisas que sostienen a un gobierno incrementalmente antidemocrático.(1) Zakaria, Fareed, ¨The Rise of Illiberal Democracy¨, Foreign Affairs, Noviembre-Diciembre de 2007. (2) Con este nombre se conoce a la serie de protestas cívicas que estallaron en Febrero de 1989 durante el gobierno de Carlos Andrés Pérez en respuesta a su plan de reformas estructurales conocido como ¨el paquetazo.¨ Aun hoy se desconoce el número de muertos, pero se lo estima en cientos.(3) Karl, Terry. The Paradox of Plenty, Berkeley, University of California Press, 1997.(4) Di John, Jonathan, From Windfall to Curse?: Oil and Industrialization in Venezuela, 1920 to the present. Pennsylvania State University Press, 2009.(5) Sam, Fletcher; "PeMex, PDVSA, PetroBras: How strategies results differs", Oil and Gas Journal, 3 Agosto de 2009, Vol. 107.29(6) Espinasa, Ramon; "The Performance of the Venezuelan Oil Sector 1997-2008: Official vs. International and Estimated Figures," Energy Cooperation and Security Task Force, 26 de Febrero de 2009.(7) Ibidem.(8) Maugeri, Leonardo, ¨Understanding Oil Price Behavior through an Analysis of a Crisis¨, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 2009, 3:2, pp 147-166.*Sociólogo, Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA)Maestría en Estudios Internacionales, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella (Tesista) Schusterman Center for Israel Studies Fellow, Brandeis University
The social protection (SP) portfolio includes a number of operations that are focused on improving service delivery across a broad range of social services. These service delivery goals are typically oriented to improving access to and quality of social services, usually as part of broader government reform and decentralization strategies. There is one case of this type of a project in an emergency context, ensuring access to basic services as an important complement to a safety net strategy. There are other complementarities between safety nets and service delivery projects, for example many safety net programs like Conditional Cash Transfers (CCTs) rely on the basic functioning of health and education services in the vicinity of program beneficiaries. The cohort includes 12 social service delivery-oriented SP projects representing about 15 percent of the cohort with an average of 2 operations approved per year in the period FY05-09. Despite the relatively lower frequency of this type of SP operation, there was broad regional representation with 5 in AFR, 4 in Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) and one each in Middle East and North Africa (MENA), South Asia Region (SAR) and Europe and Central Asia (ECA). The group is evenly divided between policy-based and investment lending, with six policy-based Development Policy Loan (DPL) and Private Sector Committee (PSC) projects, four specific investment projects, one technical assistance, and one emergency recovery project. The prominence of DPLs underscores the policy type of objectives often found in these projects. The DPLs range from PRSCs and DPLs with broader country focus, like Madagascar and Niger, to DPLs more narrowly focused on social services, as is the case of a series of DPLs in Peru. Investment lending ranges from stabilization of social services in response to crisis in the West Bank and Gaza, to longer-term institutional objectives of decentralizing social service delivery and financing in Serbia and Ethiopia. In terms of institutional objectives, these projects most typically focus on sector institutions and decentralization strategies. There is less of a focus on the community level than on sub-national government roles and responsibilities.
This paper examines the effect of finance on long-term economic growth using Bayesian model averaging to address model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions. The literature largely focuses on financial indicators that assess the financial depth of banks and stock markets. These indicators are examined jointly with newly developed indicators that assess the stability and efficiency of financial markets. Once the finance-growth regressions are subjected to model uncertainty,the results suggest that commonly used indicators of financial development are not robustly related to long-term growth. However, the findings from the global sample indicate that one newly developed indicator -- the efficiency of financial intermediaries -- is robustly related to long-term growth.
This paper estimates the effects of peer benchmarking by institutional investors on asset prices. To identify trades purely due to peer benchmarking as separate from those based on fundamentals or private information, the paper exploits a natural experiment involving a change in a government imposed underperformance penalty applicable to Colombian pension funds. This change in regulation is orthogonal to stock fundamentals and only affects incentives to track peer portfolios allowing the authors to identify the component of demand due to peer benchmarking. The authors find that peer effects among pension fund managers generate excess in stock return volatility, with stocks exhibiting short-term abnormal returns followed by returns reversal in the subsequent quarter. Additionally, peer benchmarking produces an excess in comovement across stock returns beyond the correlation implied by fundamentals.
The major role tropical forests play in biodiversity and climate change has led the world to search for effective ways to slow down deforestation. Community forest management (CFM) is an example of the broader concept of community-based natural resources management (CBNRM). As part of the decentralization policy in many countries, mainly in Africa and Asia, CFM was expected to promote: (i) a more effective stewardship of the resources by involving the local communities in the management of the resources, and (ii) a more locally-driven development with them tapping most of the derived benefits. The precursors of CBNRM and CFM in Madagascar are the centrally-led compensation-based mechanisms to conservation. Madagascar is one of the first countries in the southern hemisphere to have put in place a legal framework for CBNRM and CFM. The CBNRM implementation process starts with the creation of a local natural resources management group. The government has identified the protection of natural capital and the harnessing of its value as a key pillar in its national development plan for 2015-2019. The plan identifies poor governance as a major constraint to achieving the country's development objectives. It puts strong emphasis on the roles of both natural capital and the necessity for a more inclusive economy to achieve sustainable development. This report will help the Bank take stock of the nearly two-decades of implementation of the national environmental action plan and provide nation-wide facts that will inform future investment in renewable natural resources management, biodiversity conservation and poverty reduction, and local development in the future. The present work is targeted to decision makers and stakeholders involved in CFM policy with the objective of taking stock of almost 20 years of implementation and advise on future directions in policy formulation. The report is organized as follows: section one presents community forest management (CFM) in Madagascar. Section two provides the result of an impact evaluation analysis conducted on the application of CFM policy. Section three provides an analysis of the legal and institutional aspects of the application of CFM policy in Madagascar. Section four presents recommendations for the short, medium, and longer term. Section five concludes.
A shrinking working-age population will be the Russian Federations biggest demographic challenge in coming decades. With workers increasingly scarce, sustainable future economic development depends on Russias ability to bring into the labor force currently under-utilized groups, such as young mothers and older people, and to maximize the productivity of every worker. This study assesses the projected dynamics of the working-age population and how changes in labor force participation may affect the future workforce. It also assesses the potential contribution of individual factors to either facilitate or deter the participation of older Russians in the labor force. A review of disincentives for labor force participation in current social insurance programs and labor institutions is followed by policy proposals to help prolong the working lives of older adults.
En esta cuarta sección del evento Economía de la Informalidad Conferencia 2020, se presento la Ponencia de la profesora Pascaline Dupas, profesora de la Universidad de Stanford, La ponencia de la profesora Pascaline Dupas, titulada Informality in the time of Covid-19 (Informalidad en tiempos de Covid-19) hace un recorrido sobre las relaciones económicas que se desarrollan en un contexto de informalidad y analiza cómo la pandemia ha afectado de manera diferencial a poblaciones formales e informales a través de tres fuentes de datos diferentes. Dupas divide su presentación en tres partes. La primera muestra una perspectiva amplia de la informalidad y la correlación entre este fenómeno y el desarrollo económico de los países. La segunda es sobre las razones por las cuales la pandemia de Covid-19 podría imponer retos en relación con la informalidad. La tercera es sobre los impactos que se han observado en el corto plazo como consecuencia del Covid-19. En la primera parte de su ponencia, Dupas hace énfasis en que la informalidad no es únicamente laboral (por ejemplo, firmas que se ocultan de la regulación del gobierno, o trabajadores que no cuentan con contratos laborales formales), sino que trasciende a los ámbitos de vivienda, transporte, comercio, pagos, seguros, consumo, gravámenes e instituciones. De hecho, resalta que estos aspectos suelen sobreponerse y ocurrir simultáneamente, o uno como consecuencia de algún otro. Más aún, la informalidad en cada una de estas áreas está relacionada con condiciones de vida más difíciles y menos oportunidades. Por ejemplo, Dupas presenta amplia evidencia de la correlación entre las dimensiones de la informalidad usando datos para la capital marfileña Abiyán, mostrando que las personas que viven en asentamientos informales adolecen de derechos de propiedad, son más propensas a tener que hacer pagos informales a autoridades locales para evitar desalojos, suelen depender de instituciones informales y suelen tener menor cobertura de tarjetas gubernamentales de identificación. Los empleados informales, por su lado, tienen ingresos irregulares que les dificulta aceptar compromisos con entidades formales. Por esta razón, cuando requieren una red de seguridad frente a riesgos, suelen acudir a seguros informales, así como a créditos informales. Asimismo, pagos informales a las autoridades (corrupción) permiten que se mantenga la informalidad en asentamientos, contratos y comercio. Esto lleva a la pregunta sobre si la informalidad es una elección. Frente a esto, Dupas argumenta que, por el lado de los trabajadores, la mayoría preferirían tener contratos formales reconocidos frente a la ley y con seguridad social. Por su lado, las firmas informales preferirían mantenerse en esa condición por cuestiones de viabilidad (no serían rentables en escenarios formales). A su vez, Dupas dice que las personas que viven en asentamientos informales no encuentran otras opciones de vivienda asequible que estén a una distancia razonable de las oportunidades laborales. En la segunda parte de su ponencia, Dupas argumenta que el Covid-19 ha levantado preocupaciones por sus efectos sobre la población informal. En primer lugar, los asentamientos informales son más propensos para la transmisión masiva del virus, pues son muy densos en términos de población, tienen muchas personas por hogar, tienen fuentes acuíferas comunales, acceso limitado a redes de saneamiento y a instalaciones de higiene. De la misma forma, se desplazan usando medios de transporte congestionados y compran en lugares muy concurridos. Lo anterior se traduce en el hecho de que hay una seroprevalencia de Covid-19 del 54% en los asentamientos informales de Mumbai (India) y del 53% en los de Buenos Aires (Argentina). Por otro lado, la informalidad está relacionada con menor resiliencia a las cuarentenas o bloqueos relacionados con el Covid-19. Lo anterior se debe a que estas medidas eliminan los ingresos de los trabajadores, obligan a los individuos a acceder a mercados más costosos, imponen restricciones al transporte público informal y dificultades de movilidad. A esto se suma que, dado que tienen menor acceso a cuentas financieras formales, se hace más difíciles de alcanzar con ayudas gubernamentales. Asimismo, suelen experimentar una caída en los ingresos de remesas. En la tercera parte, Dupas documenta una serie de impactos económicos del Covid-19. Hace referencia a casos de estudio en Colombia, México, Costa de Marfil y Ghana. En el caso de Colombia y México, analizan la encuesta IPA RECOVR realizada por IPA, que incluye tanto a Bogotá como al Distrito Federal. En estas ciudades, se evidenciaron pérdidas de trabajos, que fueron más pronunciadas sobre la informalidad. Las personas formales en estas ciudades reportaron pérdidas de empleo de un 40%, mientras que esa cifra alcanzó el 80% entre los informales. Los trabajadores informales reportaron que, post-Covid, trabajaron menos horas que antes y ganaron menos que antes. En el caso de Ghana, Dupas hizo referencia a los efectos causales de la educación sobre la resiliencia ante choques como el de la pandemia de Covid-19. Frente a esto, mostró resultados que indican que las beneficiarias de programas educativos tuvieron mayor resiliencia laboral en términos de permanencia e ingresos. Finalmente, Dupas concluyó con cuatro puntos. Primero, que la informalidad tiene muchos dominios interconectados entre sí. Segundo, que la informalidad estuvo relacionada con vulnerabilidad aumentada frente a las crisis. Tercero, que los impactos del Covid-19 tienen una gran probabilidad de extenderse en el largo plazo. Lo anterior, sobre todo, porque las inversiones en nutrición de la primera infancia y en educación han caído debido a la pandemia. Y estas inversiones son muy importantes para el desarrollo de mediano y largo plazo de los niños, niñas y adolescentes. Por último, resaltó que la recuperación de esta situación va a ser intrincada. Esto, debido a la destrucción de negocios, activos y trabajos que significó la pandemia y las cuarentenas consecuentes para los individuos. Todo esto, con un enfoque diferencial frente a la informalidad que indica que va a ser mucho más difícil recuperarse para los que antes de la pandemia ya eran informales. ; In this fourth section of the Economics of Informality Conference 2020 event, the Presentation by Professor Pascaline Dupas, a professor at Stanford University, The presentation by Professor Pascaline Dupas, entitled Informality in the time of Covid-19 (Informality in times of Covid-19) takes a tour of the economic relations that develop in a context of informality and analyzes how the The pandemic has differentially affected formal and informal populations through three different data sources. Dupas divides his presentation into three parts. The first shows a broad perspective of informality and the correlation between this phenomenon and the economic development of the countries. The second is about the reasons why the Covid-19 pandemic could pose challenges in relation to informality. The third is about the impacts that have been observed in the short term as a consequence of Covid-19. In the first part of his presentation, Dupas emphasizes that informality is not only labor (for example, firms that hide from government regulation, or workers who do not have formal labor contracts), but that it transcends of housing, transport, commerce, payments, insurance, consumption, taxes and institutions. In fact, it highlights that these aspects tend to overlap and occur simultaneously, or one as a consequence of some other. Furthermore, informality in each of these areas is related to more difficult living conditions and fewer opportunities. For example, Dupas presents ample evidence of the correlation between dimensions of informality using data for the Ivorian capital Abidjan, showing that people who live in informal settlements lack property rights, are more likely to have to make informal payments to authorities. To avoid evictions, they tend to rely on informal institutions and tend to have less coverage from government identification cards. Informal employees, on the other hand, have irregular income that makes it difficult for them to accept commitments with formal entities. For this reason, when they require a safety net against risks, they tend to turn to informal insurance, as well as informal loans. Likewise, informal payments to the authorities (corruption) allow informality to be maintained in settlements, contracts and commerce. This leads to the question of whether informality is a choice. Faced with this, Dupas argues that, on the workers' side, the majority would prefer to have formal contracts recognized by the law and with social security. For their part, informal firms would prefer to remain in that condition for viability reasons (they would not be profitable in formal settings). In turn, Dupas says that people living in informal settlements do not find other affordable housing options that are within a reasonable distance of job opportunities. In the second part of his presentation, Dupas argues that Covid-19 has raised concerns about its effects on the informal population. First, informal settlements are more prone to massive transmission of the virus, as they are very dense in terms of population, have many people per household, have communal water sources, limited access to sanitation networks and hygiene facilities. In the same way, they travel using congested means of transport and shop in crowded places. This translates into the fact that there is a Covid-19 seroprevalence of 54% in the informal settlements of Mumbai (India) and 53% in those of Buenos Aires (Argentina). On the other hand, informality is related to less resilience to quarantines or blockades related to Covid-19. This is because these measures eliminate workers' income, force individuals to access more expensive markets, impose restrictions on informal public transport and mobility difficulties. Added to this is that, given that they have less access to formal financial accounts, it is more difficult to achieve with government aid. They also tend to experience a drop in remittance income. In the third part, Dupas documents a series of economic impacts of Covid-19. It refers to case studies in Colombia, Mexico, Ivory Coast and Ghana. In the case of Colombia and Mexico, they analyze the IPA RECOVR survey conducted by IPA, which includes both Bogotá and the Federal District. In these cities, job losses were evidenced, which were more pronounced on informality. Formal people in these cities reported job losses of 40%, while that figure reached 80% among informal ones. Informal workers reported that, post-Covid, they worked fewer hours than before and earned less than before. In the case of Ghana, Dupas referred to the causal effects of education on resilience to shocks such as the Covid-19 pandemic. Faced with this, it showed results that indicate that the beneficiaries of educational programs had greater work resilience in terms of permanence and income. Finally, Dupas concluded with four points. First, that informality has many interconnected domains. Second, that informality was related to increased vulnerability to crises. Third, that the impacts of Covid-19 have a high probability of spreading in the long term. The above, above all, because investments in early childhood nutrition and education have fallen due to the pandemic. And these investments are very important for the medium and long-term development of children and adolescents. Finally, he stressed that the recovery from this situation will be intricate. This, due to the destruction of businesses, assets and jobs that the pandemic meant and the consequent quarantines for individuals. All this, with a differential approach to informality that indicates that it will be much more difficult to recover for those who were already informal before the pandemic.
Currently, the world is experiencing great challenges in public health, but it is also experiencing these challenges in finding new formulas for an economic development. The political systems of diverse nations are challenged to find sustainable solutions that meet the expectations of the nations (Zamorano Farías, 2010.)In this issue of the magazine "Politics, Globality and Citizenship", the reader will have access to eleven articles that delve into topics that are essential to find the institutional mechanisms that allow to have a better social coexistence among individuals who are part of a plural society, and also among the nations. They correspond to studies that have been carried out rigorously and with an examination of cases that contribute to a necessary debate in the current Academy.Thereon, it is important to reflect on the concept of a "quality" democracy in which O'Donnell, Vargas and Iazzetta (2004) established that there are some essential elements that allow us to speak of a democracy with content. This concept is made up, among other things, by the conduct of free elections, by a true independence of the media, by having acceptable indices in matters of equity, by the fact that the population has access to extensive social security and because the majorities and minorities are represented.For that very reason, it is important that institutions can become an effective mechanism that can enable those ideals for a quality democracy to become an everyday reality. According to a study made by Tusell (2015), some of the factors that are inherently related to the quality of democracy are accountability and the rule of law.In general terms, this is one of the main concepts that concern us in this issue: the correct functioning of public powers is key in the consolidation of any democratic regime and, in particular, in preserving fundamental freedoms (Barreda, 2010.)Regarding mediation, there is a qualitative study by Roberto Guerrero Vega, from the Polytechnic University of Nicaragua, who proposes a model for evaluating the quality of the mediation service in Mexico. It is necessary to highlight that these investigations like the ones made by Guerrero Vega are the ones that contribute to establish the bases for an improvement in the resolution of controversies, the same ones that contribute to generate a better social coexistence. Precisely on the topic of well-being, is that Francisco Gorjón Gómez, from the Autonomous University of Nuevo León (Mexico), presents us a study that corroborates the presence of mediation as an instrument to achieve collective well-being. Regarding the legal analysis, the inquiries of Yahaira Berenice Martínez-Pérez, Brenda Judith Sauceda-Villeda and María Salomé Moreno-Rodríguez from the Autonomous University of Nuevo León (Mexico) are presented, who argue in favor of a legal reform that could protect the most vulnerable sectors. In addition, there is the participation of Jose Luis Leal Espinosa, from the Autonomous University of Coahuila (Mexico), who also argues strongly about the need to specify institutional mechanisms that guarantee the entitlement to information.In educational matters, we have the outstanding participations of Fabio Orlando Cruz Paez and Oswaldo Vanegas Florez from the University of Cundinamarca (Colombia) and the case of Fernando Cárdenas Cabello from the CIFE University Center (Mexico), who explain to us about the technological surveillance process and its impact on the organizational culture of a prestigious Colombian university in the first case, while in the second case, it is examined the adequacy of industrial policy 4.0 in the transition from one government to another, based on the analysis of the National Development Plan. Also, the researchers from the Universidad de la Costa, Grays Nuñez Ríos, Kadry García Mendoza, Judith Castillo Martelo and Nevis Niño-Jiménez carry out a study on a community intervention on how citizens can be motivated to participate in activities that contribute to the peace. In geopolitical matters, this issue has two notable products: The analysis of the relationship of the Pacific Alliance, which is made up by Mexico, Peru, Chile and Colombia, with the People's Republic of China, carried out by Flavio Rafael González-Ayala, a researcher from the Autonomous University of San Luis Potosí (Mexico.) The reader can also consult the inter-institutional research made by José María Ramos García (El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, Mexico), Carlos Barrachina Lisón (Anáhuac University, México) and Jimmy Emmanuel Ramos (Autonomous University of Baja California), who ponder the challenges from the southern border of Mexico, regarding its importance in its relationship with the United States.Finally, this issue has notable international contributions on current issues and also an introspection of the evolution of a political party that has been fundamental to Spanish democracy: The commitment to disseminate research projects on current issues of the magazine Politics, Globality and Citizenship is reflected in them, as well as those that contain a timely historical review.In relation to the subject, and with validity, we can find the work of Juan Sebastián Sánchez Gómez (University if Los Andes, Colombia), who has exposed the case of the state of exception decreed in Colombia from the coronavirus pandemic. In the case of Borja García-Vázquez (Autonomous University of Nuevo León), an extensive tour of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) is made, from a year before the death of Francisco Franco, up to the year of his first electoral defeat at ta national level, after holding power for 14 consecutive years. In summary, Fascicle 6 (12) has articles written by prestigious researchers, from also outstanding educational centers, which reflect on fundamental topics that reinforce the current lines of research in the field of geopolitics, mediation, the rule of law and educational policy. Therefore, our intention is to contribute to the permanent exchange in quality research, which is why we hope that the scholars who have consulted this edition can find information that is useful to them in their own investigations. ; En la actualidad, el mundo vive grandes desafíos en materia de salud pública, pero también de encontrar nuevas fórmulas de desarrollo económico. Los sistemas políticos de naciones diversas tienen el reto de encontrar soluciones sostenibles que cumplan con las expectativas de las naciones (Zamorano Farías, 2010).En el presente número de la revista "Política, Globalidad y Ciudadanía", el lector tendrá acceso a once artículos que profundizan sobre temas que son indispensables para encontrar los mecanismos institucionales que permitan una mejor convivencia social entre los individuos que forman parte de una sociedad plural y también entre las naciones. Corresponden a estudios que se han realizado de manera rigurosa y con una examinación de casos que contribuyen a un necesario debate en la academia actual.Al respecto, resulta importante reflexionar sobre el concepto de una democracia de "calidad" en la que O'Donnell, Vargas y Iazzetta (2004) establecieron que existen algunos elementos esenciales que nos permiten hablar de una democracia con contenido. Este concepto, se compone entre otras cosas, por la celebración de elecciones libres, por una verdadera independencia de los medios de comunicación, por contar con índices aceptables en materia de equidad, por el hecho de que la población tenga acceso a una amplia seguridad social y porque las mayorías y minorías se encuentren representadas.Por esa misma razón, es importante que las instituciones puedan convertirse en un mecanismo eficaz que pueda hacer posible que esos ideales de una democracia de calidad se conviertan en una realidad cotidiana. De acuerdo con un estudio de Tusell (2015), algunos de los factores que se encuentran inherentemente relacionados con la calidad de la democracia son la rendición de cuentas y el estado de derecho.En términos generales, este es uno de los principales conceptos que nos concierne en la presente edición: el funcionamiento correcto de los poderes públicos resulta clave en la consolidación de cualquier régimen democrático y en particular, en el de preservar las libertades fundamentales (Barreda, 2010).En materia de mediación, se cuenta con un estudio cualitativo por parte de Roberto Guerrero Vega, de la Universidad Politécnica de Nicaragua, quien propone un modelo de evaluación de la calidad al servicio de mediación en México. Es necesario resaltar que son investigaciones como las de Guerrero Vega, las que contribuyen a fijar las bases de una mejoría en la resolución de controversias, las mismas que contribuyen a generar una mejor convivencia social. Precisamente sobre el tema del bienestar, es que Francisco Gorjón Gómez, de la Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León (México), nos presenta un trabajo que permite corroborar la presencia de la mediación como un instrumento para lograr el bienestar colectivo.En cuanto al análisis jurídico, se presentan las indagaciones de Yahaira Berenice Martínez-Pérez, Brenda Judith Sauceda-Villeda y María Salomé Moreno-Rodríguez de la Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León (México), quienes argumentan a favor de una reforma jurídica que protega a los sectores más vulnerables. Además se cuenta con la participación de Jose Luis Leal Espinosa, de la Universidad Autónoma de Coahuila (México), quien también argumenta de manera sólida en torno a la necesidad de concretar mecanismos institucionales que garanticen el derecho a la información.En materia educativa, contamos con las destacadas participaciones de Fabio Orlando Cruz Paez y Oswaldo Vanegas Florez de la Universidad de Cundinamarca (Colombia) y el caso de Fernando Cárdenas Cabello del Centro Universitario CIFE (México), quienes nos exponen sobre el proceso de vigilancia tecnológica y su incidencia en la cultura organizacional de una prestigiada universidad colombiana en el primer caso, mientras que en el segundo se examina la adecuación de la política industrial 4.0 en la transición de un gobierno a otro, basado en el análisis del Plan Nacional de Desarrollo. También los investigadores de la Universidad de la Costa, Greys Nuñez Ríos, Kadry García Mendoza, Judith Castillo Martelo y Nevis Niño-Jiménez quienes realizan un estudio sobre una intervención comunitaria de cómo se puede motivar a los ciudadanos a participar en actividades que contribuyan a la paz. En materia geopolítica, esta edición cuenta con dos productos notables: El análisis de la relación de la Alianza del Pacífico, que conforma México, Perú, Chile y Colombia, con la República Popular China, que realiza el investigador de la Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí (México), Flavio Rafael González-Ayala. El lector también puede consultar la investigación interinstitucional de José María Ramos García (El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, México), Carlos Barrachina Lisón (Universidad Anáhuac, México) y Jimmy Emmanuel Ramos (Universidad Autónoma de Baja California), quienes ponderan sobre los retos de la frontera sur de México, en cuanto a su importancia en su relación con Estados Unidos.Por último, la edición cuenta con contribuciones internacionales notables sobre temas actuales y también, de una introspección de la evolución de un partido político que ha sido fundamental para la democracia española: En ellos se encuentra reflejado el compromiso de la revista Política, Globalidad y Ciudadanía de difundir proyectos de investigación de temas vigentes, así como aquellos que contienen una oportuna revisión histórica.En lo relacionado al tema se encuentra con una vigencia oportuna, el trabajo de Juan Sebastián Sánchez Gómez (Universidad de los Andes, Colombia) quien expone el caso del estado de excepción decretado en Colombia a partir de la pandemia de coronavirus. En el caso de Borja García-Vázquez (Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León), se realiza un amplio recorrido del Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE), desde un año antes de la muerte de Francisco Franco, al año de su primera derrota electoral a nivel nacional, después de detentar el poder por 14 años consecutivos.En síntesis, el fascículo 6(12) cuenta con artículos de investigadores de prestigio, de centros educativos también destacados, que reflexionan de temas fundamentales que refuezan las líneas de investigación vigentes en materia de geopolítica, mediación, estado de derecho y política educativa. Por lo tanto nuestra intención es contribuir al intercambio permanente en materia de investigación de calidad, es por esto que esperamos que los académicos que consulten esta edición puedan encontrar información que les sea de utilidad en sus propias indagaciones.
