The major Sufi brotherhoods have a significance in the development of political Islam in the modern era that is often underestimated. The traditional brotherhoods provided the basis for much of the militant opposition to European imperial expansion in the nineteenth century and, through these efforts, created symbols for Islamic authenticity that have remained important throughout the twentieth century. These brotherhoods also were major conservative forces, preserving a sense of an Islamic identity in times of rule by non-Muslims or secularizing and westernizing Muslim elites after independence. The long-term impact of this conservative force is to provide a foundation for popular support for political Islam at the end of the twentieth century. This popular support is a major factor in transforming political Islam from a radical force on the periphery of the political arena into the basic foundation of mainstream politics in many Islamic societies.
TILLY, CHARLES Coerción, capital y los Estados europeos. 990-1990 Madrid, Alianza, 1992 BREUILLY, JOHN Labour and Liberalism in Nineteenth Century Europe. Essays in comparative history Manchester, Manchester University Press, 1992 CARNERO ARBAT, TERESA (ed.) Modernización, desarrollo político y cambio social Madrid, Alianza Universidad, 1992 PRADOS DE LA ESCOSURA, LEANDRO y ZAMAGNI, VERA (eds.) El desarrollo económico en la Europa del Sur: España e Italia en perspectiva histórica Madrid, Alianza, 1992 WINOCK, MICHEL Le Socialisme en France et en Europe, XIX-XX siècle Paris, Le Seuil, «Points-Histoire», 1992 BULLOCK, ALAN Hitler and Stalin: Parallel lives Nueva York, Knopf, 1992 PONTING, CLIVE Historia verde del mundo Barcelona, Paidós, 1992 DELEAGE, JEAN PAUL Historia de la Ecología Barcelona, Icaria, 1993 TAMAMES, RAMON La reconquista del Paraíso. Más allá de la utopía Madrid, Temas de Hoy, 1993 FONTANA, JOSEP La Historia después delfín de la historia Barcelona, Crítica, 1992 CHARTIER, ROGER EL mundo como representación. Historia cultural entre práctica y representación Barcelona, Gedisa, 1992 GRANJA, JOSÉ LUIS DE LA y REIG TAPIA, ALBERTO (eds.) Manuel Tuñón de Lara, El compromiso con la historia. Su vida y su obra Bilbao, Universidad del País Vasco, 1993 NORA, PIERRE (dir.) Les lieux de mémoires. III. Les France. 1 Conflits et Partages. 2. Traditions. 3. De l'archive à l'emblème Paris, Gallimard, 1992 AGULHON, MAURICE y BONTE, PIERRE Marianne. Les visages de la République Gallimard, 1992 THÉBAUD, FRANÇOISE (dir.) Historia de las mujeres. El siglo XX Madrid, Editorial Taurus, 1993 KITCHEN, MARTIN El período de entreguerras en Europa Madrid, Alianza Universidad, 1992 AFERS full de recerca i pensament. Nació i nacionalisme a l'Europa Central i Oriental n° 14, Vol. VII, Catarroja, 1992 GUEREÑA, JEAN-LOUIS; FELL, EVEMARIE; AYMES, JEAN-RENE (Eds.) L'Université en Espagne et en Amérique Latine du Moyen Age a nos jours Tours, Publications de L'Université de Tours, 1991 BAHAMONDE, ÁNGEL y CAYUELA, JOSÉ Hacer las Americas. Las élites coloniales españolas en el siglo XIX Madrid, Alianza, 1992 PONS, ANACLET y SERNA, JUSTO La ciudad extensa. La burguesía comercial- financiera y su dominación en la Valencia de mediados del siglo XIX Valencia, Diputació Provincial, 1992 SÁNCHEZ MARROYO, FERNANDO Movimientos populares y reforma agraria. Tensiones sociales en el campo extremeño durante el Sexenio Democrático Badajoz, Diputación Provincial, 1992 SERRANO GARCÍA, RAFAEL La Revolución de 1868 en Castilla y León Valladolid, Universidad de Valladolid, 1992 PIQUERAS ARENAS, JOSÉ ANTONIO La Revolución Democrática (1868-1874). Cuestión social, colonialismo y grupos de presión, Madrid, Ministerio de Trabajo y Seguridad Social, 1992 BOTTI, ALFONSO Cielo y dinero. El nacionalcatolicismo en España (1881-1975) Madrid, Alianza, 1992 REVUELTA GONZÁLEZ, MANUEL La Compañía de Jesús en la España Contemporánea, Tomo II: Expansión en tiempos recios (1884-1906) Sal Terrae, Mensajero, Universidad Pontificia de Comillas, 1991 FORNER MUÑOZ, SALVADOR Canajelas y el Partido Liberal Democrático Madrid, Instituto de Cultura Gil Albert y Ediciones Cátedra S.A., 1993 ESTEBAN DE VEGA, MARIANO; GONZÁLEZ GÓMEZ, SANTIAGO y REDERO SAN ROMÁN, MANUEL Salamanca. 1900-1936. La transformación limitada de una ciudad preindustrial, Salamanca, Diputación Provincial, 1992 LUIS MARTÍN, FRANCISCO DE La cultura socialista en España 1923-1930 Salamanca, Ediciones Universidad de Salamanca- CSIC, 1993 CASANOVA, JULIÁN; CENARRO, ÁNGELA; CIFUENTES, JULITA; MALUENDA, Ma PILAR y SALOMÓN, Ma PILAR El pasado oculto. Fascismo y violencia en Aragón (1936-1939) Madrid, Siglo XXI, 1992 BLANCO RODRÍGUEZ, JUAN ANDRÉS El Quinto Regimiento en la Política Militar del P.C.E. en la Guerra Civil Madrid, U.N.E.D. 1993 MATEOS, ABDÓN El PSOE contra Franco. Continuidad y renovación del socialismo español. 1953-1974 Madrid, Ed. Pablo Iglesias, 1993
"From 'folk devils' to ballroom dancers, Waltzing Through Europe explores the changing reception of fashionable couple dances in Europe from the eighteenth century onwards. A refreshing intervention in dance studies, this book brings together elements of historiography, cultural memory, folklore, and dance across comparatively narrow but markedly heterogeneous localities. Rooted in investigations of often newly discovered primary sources, the essays afford many opportunities to compare sociocultural and political reactions to the arrival and practice of popular rotating couple dances, such as the Waltz and the Polka. Leading contributors provide a transnational and affective lens onto strikingly diverse topics, ranging from the evolution of romantic couple dances in Croatia, and Strauss's visits to Hamburg and Altona in the 1830s, to dance as a tool of cultural preservation and expression in twentieth-century Finland. Waltzing Through Europe creates openings for fresh collaborations in dance historiography and cultural history across fields and genres. It is essential reading for researchers of dance in central and northern Europe, while also appealing to the general reader who wants to learn more about the vibrant histories of these familiar dance forms.
Discourses We Live By approaches these questions through narrative research, in a process that uses words, images, activities or artefacts to ask people – either individually or collectively within social groupings – to examine, discuss, portray or otherwise make public their place in the world, their sense of belonging to (and identity within) the physical and cultural space they inhabit.
This book is a rich and multifaceted collection of twenty-eight chapters that use varied lenses to examine the discourses that shape people's lives. The contributors are themselves from many backgrounds – different academic disciplines within the humanities and social sciences, diverse professional practices and a range of countries and cultures. They represent a broad spectrum of age, status and outlook, and variously apply their research methods – but share a common interest in people, their lives, thoughts and actions. Gathering such eclectic experiences as those of student-teachers in Kenya, a released prisoner in Denmark, academics in Colombia, a group of migrants learning English, and gambling addiction support-workers in Italy, alongside more mainstream educational themes, the book presents a fascinating array of insights.
Discourses We Live By will be essential reading for adult educators and practitioners, those involved with educational and professional practice, narrative researchers, and many sociologists. It will appeal to all who want to know how narratives shape the way we live and the way we talk about our lives."
"According to a recent report from the World Health Organization (WHO) Commission on the Social Determinants of Health, "a girl born in Sweden will live 43 years longer than a girl born in Sierra Leone." The report goes on to observe that "in Glasgow, an unskilled, working-class person will have a lifespan 28 years shorter than a businessman in the top income bracket in Scotland" (see Footnote 1, p. 5). Commenting on these sobering statistics of health disparities around the world in an invited address, Vicente Navarro (2009) of Johns Hopkins University noted that: the mortality differentials among countries are enormous. But such inequalities also appear within each country, including the so-called rich or developed countries. . . . We could add here similar data from the United States. In East Baltimore (where my university, the Johns Hopkins University, is located), a black unemployed youth has a lifespan 32 years shorter than a white corporate lawyer. Actually, as I have documented elsewhere, a young African American is 1.8 times more likely than a young White American to die from a cardiovascular condition. Race mortality differentials are large in the US. . . . In the same study, I showed that a blue-collar worker is 2.8 times more likely than a businessman to die from a cardiovascular condition. (p. 5) The challenges of health disparities for racial and ethnic minorities in this country have been publicized in the scientific community by reports such as Unequal Treatment and articles like Navarro's (2009) address. However, much less attention and research have been focused on occupational health disparities (OHDs) among racial and ethnic minority groups. Despite an increasing number of immigrant and nonimmigrant racial and ethnic minorities in the United States, little is known about OHDs among these populations. Worker groups in the United States have differential exposure to workplace hazards, and in many cases, these hazards are disproportionately experienced by racial and ethnic minorities. As a result, any research and policy efforts to address health disparities among racial and ethnic minorities will also need to address the differential impacts of working conditions on their health. These OHDs are exacerbated by barriers resulting from language issues, socioeconomic factors, and cultural beliefs and attitudes. Therefore, a multicultural perspective on OHDs is needed to understand the unique barriers and stressors that they encounter in the workplace. This volume will provide a state-of-the-art review of the literature as well as a road map to guide future research to address the challenges in OHDs among racial and ethnic minorities"--Preface. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
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This book examines common themes related to gender and ageing in countries in Southeast Asia. Derived from quantitative or qualitative methods of data collection and analysis, the chapters reveal how ageing has become tempered by globalization, cultural values, family structures, women's emancipation and empowerment, social networks, government policies, and religion. The chapters are concerned primarily with the following questions related to gender and ageing: (a) how do women and men experience old age? (b) do women and men have different means of coping financially and socially in their old age? (c) does having engaged in wage work for longer periods of time serve as an advantage to older men in contrast to older women? (d) does a woman's primary role as caregiver serve to disadvantage her in old age? (e) what kinds of identities have older women and men constructed for themselves? (f) do women and men prepare for ageing differently and has this preparation been mediated by educational levels? (g) does having a higher level of education make a difference to how one experiences ageing? (h) how does class shape the way women and men cope in old age? and (i) what does it mean to be a 'single' older person who has either lost a spouse through death or has never been married? Because the book employs a cross-country analysis, readers gain an understanding of contemporary emergent trends not only in each of the countries but also in Southeast Asia as a whole. Wherever relevant, some chapters have also identified similarities in trends on gender and ageing between countries in the Western hemisphere and those in Southeast Asia to highlight broader patterns across the world. "The share of the elderly in Southeast Asia's population is steadily rising, and it is increasingly important to understand and plan for the implications of this trend. While in some aspects, the situation of older women and men in the region is similar, their life experiences of education, marriage, child-raising, work, and social networks differ, and this makes for different issues as they grow older. Moreover, a much higher proportion of elderly women than men face old age without a spouse. This book makes a major contribution to understanding the issues arising from ageing trends in Southeast Asia. Individual chapters in the book deal authoritatively with almost every country in the region, and are written by noted experts on the subject. The book will be an essential readin ...
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State statistical indicators of the economic development do not include subjective factors aff ecting country's population. So, rather optimistic assessments of Ukraine's economic indicators contradict pessimistic moods and feelings of Ukrainian youth. Th e relevance of this study is due to the fact that the Low level satisfaction with the socio-economic situation in Ukraine and own opportunities and prospects of Ukrainian youth is the basis for the formation of behavioral guidelines, in particular, migratory moods. Th e purpose of this study is to analyze the attitude of young people to the economic environment in Ukraine, young people's assessments of their own fi nancial situation, and the relationship of such subjective assessments to the migratory moods of young people. Th e study used general scientifi c methods and special sociological methods to process and analyze the results of the study "Youth of Ukraine 2018". According to the survey "Youth of Ukraine 2018", a signifi cant part of young people (88.9 %) thinks that economic situation became worse or didn't change during last year. Youth assessments of their fi nancial situation are also pessimistic 83.3 % of young people in Ukraine assess their family's fi nancial situation as average or below average. Th e novelty of this study is to analyze the relationship between youth subjective assessments of economic environment in Ukraine as an environment for the implementation of personal plans and intentions, youth assessments of their fi nancial situation and youth migratory attitudes. Migratory moods of young people are formed on the dissatisf action with their fi nancial situation and the economic situation in the country under the infl uence of various factors, among the main ones are the desire to improve their fi nancial situation through the desire to earn money or fi nd a job. Migratory moods of young people are manifested to varying degrees depending on their formation. Th e degree of formation of migration intentions signifi cantly depends on the real possibility of their implementation: the lower the level of material security, the more uncertain the migration guidelines. Th e young generation is a potential for the socio-economic revival of Ukraine, so its opinion, its assessments, its feelings are extremely important for the formation of adequate youth policy. Taking into account subjective factors which aff ect the behavioral orientations of young people is especially important in the formation of reasonable youth policy of Ukraine, and requires research, analysis and development of instruments based on such analysis.
This research is supported by MINECO-ENE2016-81013-R (AEI/FEDER, EU), MICIIN (Project ref. PID2019-104953RB-100), Consejería de Transformación Económica, Industria, Conocimiento y Universidades de la Junta de Andalucía (UCO-FEDER Project CATOLIVAL, ref. 1264113-R, 2018, and Project ref. P18-RT-4822) and FEDER Funds for financial support. The Government of Ireland Postdoctoral Fellowship Programme-2015 (GOIPD/2015/287) is thankfully acknowledge by V.G.-P. ; This research article is part of the doctoral thesis of C.L., directed by professors D.L., F.M.B. and C.V.-E., who in a general way conceived and designed the experiments and wrote the paper. V.G.-P. collaborated in a decisive way contributing everything concerning the investigated inorganic supports. R.E., F.J.L.-T., J.C. and L.A.-D. have made also substantive intellectual contributions to this study, substantial input to conception and design, as well as to the acquisition, analysis and interpretation of data. A.A.R. and R.E. were also involved in drafting and revising the manuscript, so that everyone gave final approval to the current version to be published in Catalysts journal. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. ; The synthesis of two biocatalysts based on a commercial Candida antarctica lipase B, CALB enzyme (E), physically immobilized on two silica supports, was carried out. The first support was a periodic mesoporous organosilica (PMO) and the second one was a commercial silica modified with octyl groups (octyl-MS3030). The maximum enzyme load was 122 mg enzyme/g support on PMO and 288 mg enzyme/g support on octyl-MS3030. In addition, the biocatalytic efficiency was corroborated by two reaction tests based on the hydrolysis of p-nitrophenylacetate (p-NPA) and tributyrin (TB). The transesterification of sunflower oil with ethanol was carried out over the bio-catalysts synthesized at the following reaction conditions: 6 mL sunflower oil, 1.75 mL EtOH, 30 °C, 25 μL NaOH 10 N and 300 rpm, attaining conversion values over 80% after 3 h of reaction time. According to the results obtained, we can confirm that these biocatalytic systems are viable candi-dates to develop, optimize and improve a new methodology to achieve the integration of glycerol in different monoacylglycerol molecules together with fatty acid ethyl esters (FAEE) molecules to obtain Ecodiesel. ; Consejería de Transformación Económica, Industria, Conocimiento y Universidades de la Junta de Andalucía ; MICIIN PID2019-104953RB-100 ; MINECO-ENE2016-81013-R ; UCO-FEDER 1264113-R, GOIPD/2015/287, P18-RT-4822 ; European Commission ; European Regional Development Fund ; Agencia Estatal de Investigación
Once known as the Gold Coast due to minerals, Ghana has very little to show for that. The revenue generated from minerals in Ghana went into the Consolidated Fund associated with mismanagement and corruption. Auditor-General's annual reports support this assertion, and the Commission of Inquiry set up to investigate the source of the wealth of politicians, and public officials confirmed mismanagement of State resources. Ghana enacted the Petroleum Revenue Management Act (PRMA) upon discovering oil and separated the oil revenue from the Consolidated Fund. The PRMA guides the management of oil revenue to benefit all Ghanaians and cause growth. Despite the PRMA, Ghanaians are pessimistic about the management of the oil revenue due to mismanagement issues. It includes the Finance Minister's discretionary power, capping the Ghana Stabilisation Fund, transferring the Annual Budget Funding Amount into the Consolidated Fund, oil revenue spent in ways not provided for by the Act, institutional weakness, and lack of national development plans. The thesis seeks to determine how the enactment of the PRMA would help deal with mismanagement through a socio-political analysis of the Act. It does so by discussing the PRMA of Ghana critically, taking into account lessons from Botswana and Norway on a series of subquestions: a) the discretionary powers of decision-makers and its effect on the management of oil revenue, b) features of quality institutions that aid the management of resource revenue, c) how various types of funds and their utilisation assist the management of oil revenue d) the role of policy planning and project reporting dealing with non-compliance. The thesis deliberates these issues, focusing solely on the PRMA and its mechanisms to achieve transparency and accountability. It considered the reports issued by the Auditor-General and the Public Interest Accountability Committee (PIAC) on the utilisation of created funds and the lack of institutional autonomy. The thesis shows that although the PRMA has its strengths, flaws remain and these surface, especially in implementing the law. The design of the PRMA creates a discrepancy between its objectives and its operation requiring legislative reform. Looking at these weaknesses more closely, the thesis argues for a paradigm shift to precede recommended legislative reform to assuage the fears of Ghanaians by offering recommendations for improving the PRMA to optimise the oil revenue.
This is the final version. Available on open access from Frontiers Media via the DOI in this record ; Data Availability Statement: The raw data supporting the conclusions of this article will be made available by the authors, without undue reservation. ; Ocean submesoscale dynamics are thought to play a key role in both the climate system and ocean productivity, however, subsurface observations at these scales remain rare. Seismic oceanography, an established acoustic imaging method, provides a unique tool for capturing oceanic structure throughout the water column with spatial resolutions of tens of meters. A drawback to the seismic method is that temperature and salinity are not measured directly, limiting the quantitative interpretation of imaged features. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inversion approach has been used to invert for temperature and salinity from seismic data, with spatially quantified uncertainties. However, the requisite prior model used in previous studies relied upon highly continuous acoustic reflection horizons rarely present in real oceanic environments due to instabilities and turbulence. Here we adapt the MCMC inversion approach with an iteratively updated prior model based on hydrographic data, sidestepping the necessity of continuous reflection horizons. Furthermore, uncertainties introduced by the starting model thermohaline fields as well as those from the MCMC inversion itself are accounted for. The impact on uncertainties of varying the resolution of hydrographic data used to produce the inversion starting model is also investigated. The inversion is applied to a mid-depth Mediterranean water eddy (or meddy) captured with seismic imaging in the Gulf of Cadiz in 2007. The meddy boundary exhibits regions of disrupted seismic reflectivity and rapid horizontal changes of temperature and salinity. Inverted temperature and salinity values typically have uncertainties of 0.16°C and 0.055 psu, respectively, and agree well with direct measurements. Uncertainties of inverted results are found to be highly dependent on the resolution of the hydrographic data used to produce the prior model, particularly in regions where background temperature and salinity vary rapidly, such as at the edge of the meddy. This further advancement of inversion techniques to extract temperature and salinity from seismic data will help expand the use of ocean acoustics for understanding the mesoscale to finescale structure of the interior ocean. ; China Scholarship Council ; University of Exeter ; European Union ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS ; Rising Star Foundation, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology
Within-field demography of weeds exhibiting wind-mediated long distance seed movement can be largely governed by extra-field seed-source populations. Thus, for these species, a clear understanding of the temporal and spatial patterns of seed dispersal can benefit the development of effective management options. The spatial distribution of the seeds released from the onset of fruiting, in early summer, to the onset of the rainy season, in early autumn, was studied during 2 years at a Mediterranean-climate locality in Erigeron bonariensis L. (Hairy fleabane), a wind-dispersed invasive weed inhabiting ruderal environments and crop fields. Each year, a small source population was established in an open field in SW Spain and seed traps were arranged in the eight cardinal directions at distances up to 100 m (year 1), or in the NE and NW directions at distances up to 65 m (year 2). Counts of trapped seeds were carried out at 4–6 day intervals and the number of seeds released by the source population was estimated each year in most census dates. Four empirical dispersal models based on either thin-tailed or fat-tailed density kernels were tested using year 1 data for their ability to represent the spatial distribution of seeds. To test for anisotropic dispersal, model parameters were allowed to vary according to the wind pattern in each cardinal direction. Based on information criteria, a model including a fat-tailed, Log-hyperbolic secant kernel showing parameter response to the wind pattern, highlighting striking anisotropic dispersal, was selected and evaluated using year 2 data. Distance percentiles 50 and 80 attained by the seed crop released in year 1 season were modeled at 530 m and 10,498 m, respectively. The opposite quadrants encompassing the dominant downwind (N-NE) and upwind directions (S-SW) received 52.5% and 10.8% of seeds. The year 1 population, consisting of 85 plants, generated a modeled seed rain of at least 10 seeds m 2 up to 200 m downwind. Implications of results for management of this herbicide resistance-prone species are discussed. ; We are grateful to Carlos Carretero, Jos´e P´erez, C´ andido Ortega and Ana Lebovich for assistance with fieldwork. DC received a grant from the Spanish Society of Weed Science (SEMh). This work was supported in part by research project C03-017 (PAI-Junta de Andalucía Regional Government, Andalusia, Spain). Funding for open access provided by Universidad de Huelva / CBUA
We would like to thank C. Dilßner and M. Neytschev (UFZ) for excellent technical assistance with CoA thioester synthesis, strain cultivation and HPLC analyses. In addition, we thank Birgit Würz (UFZ) for invaluable analytical advice and help with GC mass spectrometry. We are also indebted to L. von Wintzingerode, A. Grunwald, and J. Grabengießer (UFZ) for assistance in the cultivation and enzyme assay experiments. Many thanks to K. Eismann (UFZ) as well, for help with the proteome analysis and fruitful discussions regarding different protein extraction methods. ; The Supplementary Material for this article can be found online at: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2020.00691/full#supplementary-material ; The tertiary branched short-chain 2-hydroxyisobutyric acid (2-HIBA) has been associated with several metabolic diseases and lysine 2-hydroxyisobutyrylation seems to be a common eukaryotic as well as prokaryotic post-translational modification in proteins. In contrast, the underlying 2-HIBA metabolism has thus far only been detected in a few microorganisms, such as the betaproteobacterium Aquincola tertiaricarbonis L108 and the Bacillus group bacterium Kyrpidia tusciae DSM 2912. In these strains, 2-HIBA can be specifically activated to the corresponding CoA thioester by the 2-HIBA-CoA ligase (HCL) and is then isomerized to 3-hydroxybutyryl-CoA in a reversible and B12-dependent mutase reaction. Here, we demonstrate that the actinobacterial strain Actinomycetospora chiangmaiensis DSM 45062 degrades 2-HIBA and also its precursor 2-methylpropane-1,2-diol via acetone and formic acid by employing a thiamine pyrophosphate-dependent lyase. The corresponding gene is located directly upstream of hcl, which has previously been found only in operonic association with the 2-hydroxyisobutyryl-CoA mutase genes in other bacteria. Heterologous expression of the lyase gene from DSM 45062 in E. coli established a 2-hydroxyisobutyryl-CoA lyase activity in the latter. In line with this, analysis of the DSM 45062 proteome reveals a strong induction of the lyase-HCL gene cluster on 2-HIBA. Acetone is likely degraded via hydroxylation to acetol catalyzed by a MimABCD-related binuclear iron monooxygenase and formic acid appears to be oxidized to CO2 by selenium-dependent dehydrogenases. The presence of the lyase-HCL gene cluster in isoprene-degrading Rhodococcus strains and Pseudonocardia associated with tropical leafcutter ant species points to a role in degradation of biogenic short-chain ketones and highly branched organic compounds. ; Program Topic "Chemicals in the Environment" within the Research Program "Terrestrial Environment" of the Helmholtz Association European Union (EU) 624857
The present report aims to provide a comprehensive picture of the pandemic situation of COVID-19 in the EU countries, and to be able to foresee the situation in the next coming days. We employ an empirical model, verified with the evolution of the number of confirmed cases in previous countries where the epidemic is close to conclude, including all provinces of China. The model does not pretend to interpret the causes of the evolution of the cases but to permit the evaluation of the quality of control measures made in each state and a short-term prediction of tendencies. Note, however, that the effects of the measures' control that start on a given day are not observed until approximately 5-7 days later. The model and predictions are based on two parameters that are daily fitted to available data: a: the velocity at which spreading specific rate slows down; the higher the value, the better the control. K: the final number of expected cumulated cases, which cannot be evaluated at the initial stages because growth is still exponential. Next, we show a report with 8 graphs and a table with the short-term predictions for (1) European Union and its countries, (2) other countries, (3) Spain and its autonomous communities. We are currently adjusting the model to countries and regions with at least 4 days with more than 100 confirmed cases and a current load over 200 cases. The predicted period of a country depends on the number of datapoints over this 100 cases threshold: Group A: countries that have reported more than 100 cumulated cases for 10 consecutive days or more ¿ 3-5 days prediction; Group B: countries that have reported more than 100 cumulated cases for 7 to 9 consecutive days ¿ 2 days prediction; Group C: countries that have reported more than 100 cumulated cases for 4 to 6 days ¿ 1 d ay prediction. We have introduced a change in fittings, that are now weighted at some points. The whole methodology employed in the inform is explained in the last pages of this document. ; These reports are funded by the European Commission (DG CONNECT, LC-01485746) PJC and MC received funding from "la Caixa" Foundation (ID 100010434), under agreement LCF/PR/GN17/50300003; CP, DL, SA, MC, received funding from Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00 ; Postprint (published version)
The present report aims to provide a comprehensive picture of the pandemic situation of COVID-19 in the EU countries, and to be able to foresee the situation in the next coming days. We employ an empirical model, verified with the evolution of the number of confirmed cases in previous countries where the epidemic is close to conclude, including all provinces of China. The model does not pretend to interpret the causes of the evolution of the cases but to permit the evaluation of the quality of control measures made in each state and a short-term prediction of tendencies. Note, however, that the effects of the measures' control that start on a given day are not observed until approximately 5-7 days later. The model and predictions are based on two parameters that are daily fitted to available data: a: the velocity at which spreading specific rate slows down; the higher the value, the better the control. K: the final number of expected cumulated cases, which cannot be evaluated at the initial stages because growth is still exponential. Next, we show a report with 8 graphs and a table with the short-term predictions for (1) European Union and its countries, (2) other countries, (3) Spain and its autonomous communities. We are currently adjusting the model to countries and regions with at least 4 days with more than 100 confirmed cases and a current load over 200 cases. The predicted period of a country depends on the number of datapoints over this 100 cases threshold: Group A: countries that have reported more than 100 cumulated cases for 10 consecutive days or more ¿ 3-5 days prediction; Group B: countries that have reported more than 100 cumulated cases for 7 to 9 consecutive days ¿ 2 days prediction; Group C: countries that have reported more than 100 cumulated cases for 4 to 6 days ¿ 1 d ay prediction. We have introduced a change in fittings, that are now weighted at some points. The whole methodology employed in the inform is explained in the last pages of this document. ; These reports are funded by the European Commission (DG CONNECT, LC-01485746) PJC and MC received funding from "la Caixa" Foundation (ID 100010434), under agreement LCF/PR/GN17/50300003; CP, DL, SA, MC, received funding from Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00 ; Postprint (published version)
Effective management of our natural world under current and future conditions requires efficient, collaborative and complementary planning and decision-making processes with clear lines of accountability. While there has been significant progress in establishing national databases for the management of species observation data, these only represent samples of a species' total distribution. The need and challenge therefore is to model these point-based observation data to obtain estimates or projections of the total range and distribution of the species. Such Species Distribution Models (SDMs), also known as Environmental Niche Models (ENMs), and the geographic data (or "maps") they generate, provide vital information needed by governments at all levels to meet various policy and statutory responsibilities and obligations. SDMs quantify the response of species occurrence to environmental conditions described by variables such as climate, substrate, productivity and vegetation. The outcomes of an SDM can be used to identify locations and regions with potentially suitable environmental conditions for a species, as well as assess how species may respond to projected future climate changes or habitat loss. While SDMs are widely used in many decision- and policy-making programs, investment in species distribution information has been fragmented and limited. In Australia, three different government departments joined forces with the Atlas of Living Australia and the Biodiversity and Climate Change Virtual Laboratory to develop a standard framework for modelling threatened species distributions for use in policy and environmental decision-making. The pilot program that will be conducted throughout 2019 includes three complementary pillars: An expert panel with both researchers and government practitioners who will review current SDM practices used in government and develop a set of best-practice methods. A technology program that includes the development of a new modelling platform that implements the best-practice methods for transparent and reproducible SDMs for decision making as established by the expert panel. Additionally, there will be an online portal for publishing ecological model outputs in a searchable catalogue to enhance cross-jurisdiction collaborations. Establishment of a training and skill development program to upskill decision makers using the new tools and methodology in practice. This presentation will showcase the outcomes of this program and highlight how digital infrastructure can enhance decision making. In this case specifically, the collaboration across government departments ensures a) a consistent approach across jurisdictions, b) an increase in model quality, thereby leading to a decrease in unnecessary survey or consultation efforts, c) an increase in suitability, robustness and reproducibility of SDMs, and d) increased advocacy and coordination in national programs and resources.