Die Debatte über die russische Haltung zum Jugoslawien-Konflikt ist Teil der grundsätzlichen Diskussion in Rußland über die künftige Ausrichtung der Außenpolitik des Landes. In diesem Zusammenhang wird allgemein befürchtet, wenngleich aus unterschiedlichen Gründen, daß der Krieg in Jugoslawien zum Präzedenzfall für ethnische Konflikte in Rußland werden könnte. Der Beitrag informiert über die Entwicklung der diplomatischen Position Rußlands in diesem Konflikt und das Abstimmungsverhalten der russischen Vertreter in internationalen Organisationen in der Frage der Sanktionspolitik gegenüber Serbien. (BIOst-Srt)
Das vorliegende Buch stellt einerseits eine eigenständige Untersuchung zu außen- und sicherheitspolitischen Einstellungen der Bevölkerung im Zeitraum 1954-1993 dar, andererseits versteht es sich als textliches Pendant zu dem von denselben Autoren vorgelegten Datenhandbuch zu außen- und sicherheitspolitischen Umfragen seit 1954. Im Vordergrund der Untersuchung stehen neben der Frage nach der Verteilung von Positionen und Einstellungen in der Öffentlichkeit zu einem bestimmten Zeitpunkt die Frage nach der Aggregatstabilität bzw. ihrem Wandel von außen- und sicherheitspolitischen Einstellungen. So wird unter anderem untersucht, welche Wichtigkeit und welches Interesse solchen politischen Problemen seitens der Öffentlichkeit entgegengebracht wurde, welche Bedeutung und welches Bild sich die Öffentlichkeit von den westlichen Verbündeten - allen voran den USA - machte, welche Einstellungen und Perzeptionen gegenüber der Gegenseite während des Kalten Krieges herrschte, welche Absichten Verbündeten und Gegnern unterstellt wurde, inwieweit die herrschende Strategie der nuklearen Abschreckung akzeptiert oder abgelehnt wurde, welche Einstellungen gegenüber der eigenen Verteidigungsfähigkeit herrschten und welches Ansehen die Bundeswehr genoss. Eine weitere Forschungsfrage bezieht sich auf die Interaktion von Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik, parteipolitischer Diskussion und öffentlicher Meinung. (ICG2)
The West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) was established by France to counteract the dominance of Anglophone countries in West Africa, particularly Nigeria and Ghana, over Francophone West Africa. Francophonie in French West Africa is mainly driven by a power elite, the 'Pré Quarré' in both France and Africa. The notorious Françafrique network determined the fate of the region for decades. This provoked a growing anti-French sentiment, which focused on three points. First, development policy; second, the currency; and third, the military. France was the only western country to maintain a significant military presence in the Sahel. While the number of French troops has fallen drastically from 30,000 in the early 1960s to around 6,100 today, political and military interventionism has not abated. But, after so many years of failed military efforts against terrorism in the region, citizens became increasingly suspicious of France's motives for being there. However, a clear distinction must be made between anti-French sentiment and anti-French military presence. Many believe that any presence of foreign troops in the Sahel makes the situation worse by attracting rather than repelling extremists. Yet, this view obscures two important realities. First, the development of a broader authoritarian movement, driven in part by Russia, that challenges democracy and its proponents. The local population makes France the scapegoat for the worsening of their situation on the ground. Its political leaders are capitalizing on hostility to the colonial legacy, including the CFA franc and military cooperation. This is fertile ground for insurgent military officials, who have no legal legitimacy but a thirst for authenticity. The slogan 'France, get out' has become a new means of legitimizing political and military power in French-speaking Africa. However, for some autocrats it is also used as a welcome distraction from acknowledging their own responsibility for the predicament. Africans are becoming increasingly aware that France is staying in Africa for its own interests. But anti-French is not necessarily pro-coup. The axis of young, fiery military leaders, seeking legitimacy from their terrorized compatriots, exploited all sorts of populist sentiments, from Africanism to the quest for economic independence. They accused Paris of supporting the terrorists who are targeting the local population so that France can continue siphoning off their resources and thereby sinking the country into increasing poverty. It would be a mistake to think that making it clear to Africans that they are being manipulated by the Russians would end the whole thing. Nevertheless, the African heavyweights of UEMOA, Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal, as well as the other member states, will keep the Union together out of self-interest, albeit on fairer terms. African public opinion is-understandably extremely sensitive to being treated as an equal. They don't want to be lectured to or made fun of.
The EU is one of the three largest economies in the world. But its economy, which is still suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic and the negative effects of the Russian war in Ukraine, faces a bleak outlook. Inflation, or even stagflation, is a major concern as it reflects cost pressures from disrupted supply chains and tight labor markets. The war in Ukraine could also lead to a sustained stop in European gas supplies from Russia. Fitch Ratings therefore forecast the likelihood of a technical recession in the euro zone due to ongoing gas rationing. Apparently the EU is at the mercy of two unpredictable powers, Putin and the weather. China is also affected by global imbalances, and when China coughs, Europe catches the flu. However, the risks are greatest in sub-Saharan Africa. Its global growth spillovers come mainly from the EU and the BRICS countries. In addition to its strong demographic growth, the continent is already suffering from climate change, including prolonged droughts, and political destabilization, particularly in the Sahel, Horn of Africa and East Africa. The two major African powers, Nigeria and South Africa, are currently going through major socioeconomic crises. Many sub-Saharan African countries are heavily dependent on energy and food imports, particularly wheat from Russia and Ukraine. For the approximately 30 million African poor, this means an increase in inequality. A recession in Europe would amplify external pressures and growth challenges. In addition, the emerging sub-Saharan markets bear the greatest export risk to the EU. The debt problem is also looming again, because lower global commodity prices slowed down economic growth.
Frankreich will Europas Verteidigung außerhalb der EU-Strukturen organisieren, mit dem Ziel, besser und schneller gemeinsame Militärinterventionen durchführen zu können. Die Europäische Interventionsinitiative soll die Länder zusammenführen, die politisch willens und militärisch fähig sind, Einsätze durchzuführen. Neun Länder u. a. Großbritannien hat Frankreich bisher eingeladen. Deutschland sieht diese Initiative kritisch, sollte sich ihr aber dennoch anschließen.
"Die deutsche Debatte um das von den USA geplante Raketenabwehrsystem leidet unter drei Faktoren, die eine nüchterne Analyse der Situation erschweren: Außenpolitische Pläne der USA stehen seit dem Irak-Krieg unter Generalverdacht, Moskaus Interessen wird überproportional viel Rücksichtnahme gewährt und die iranische Bedrohung wird heruntergespielt. Dadurch verschließt sich für die meisten Beobachter der eigentliche strategische Wert des Raketenabwehrsystems: Es bietet eine Versicherungsoption gegenüber dem Iran für den Fall, dass die diplomatischen Bemühungen scheitern, Teheran von seinen Nuklearwaffenplänen abzuhalten." (Autorenreferat)
"Post-conflict reconstruction is understood as a complex system that provides for simultaneous short-, medium- and long-term programmes to prevent disputes from escalating, avoid a relapse into violent conflict and to build and consolidate sustainable peace. Post-conflict reconstruction is ultimately aimed at addressing the root causes of a conflict and to lay the foundations for social justice and sustainable peace. Post-conflict reconstruction systems proceed through three broad phases, namely the emergency phase, the transition phase and the development phase; however, they should not be understood as absolute, fixed, time-bound or having clear boundaries. Post-conflict reconstruction systems have five dimensions: (1) security; (2) political transition, governance and participation; (3) socio-economic development; (4) human rights, justice and reconciliation; and (5) coordination, management and resource mobilisation. These five dimensions need to be programmed simultaneously, collectively and cumulatively to develop momentum to sustainable peace. While there are processes, phases and issues that can be said to be common to most countries emerging from conflict, one should recognise the uniqueness of each conflict system, in terms of its own particular socioeconomic and political history, the root causes and immediate consequences of the conflict an the specific configuration of the actors that populate the system. Further, as most intra-state conflicts in Africa are interlinked within regional conflict systems, country specific post-conflict reconstruction systems need to seek synergy with neighbouring systems to ensure coherence across regional conflict systems. The nexus between development, peace and security have become a central focus of post-conflict reconstruction thinking and practice over the last decade. The key policy tension in the post-conflict setting appears to be between economic efficiency and political stability. While the need and benefits of improved coherence is widely accepted, there seems to be no consensus on who should coordinate, what should be coordinated and how coordination should be undertaken." (author's abstract)
