Suchergebnisse

AbstractPrediction markets are designed to aggregate the information of many individuals to forecast future events. These markets provide participants with an incentive to seek information and a forum for interaction, making markets a promising tool to motivate student learning. We carried out a quasi-experiment in an introductory political science class to study the effect of prediction markets on student engagement with the course topics. Although we found no significant improvement in students' enthusiasm or extent of topical reading, we did find that those students who were already reading broadly at the course start were more likely to trade actively in the markets. These findings indicate that prediction markets may be most successful as an education tool in settings, like graduate education, where individuals are already knowledgeable about the topics of the market, instead of an introductory learning context.

In this paper, I consider opportunities and limitations of modelling the political dynamics with the time-series instruments. Using the examples of the president Putin's approval rating and readiness to join the collective actions with economic demands I demonstrate the analytical potential of autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), autoregressive distributed lag model (ADL), and error correction model (ECM). Modelling the political dynamics faces a string of analytical dilemmas. This paper aims at identifying the basic choices in application of the statistical instruments to dynamic processes and helping the other researchers to navigate through them. While it is hard to account in a single paper for all the developments in the discipline, which has been substantially advanced substantially and technically i the last three decades, this text also aims at stimulating the discussion on the opportunities and limitations when applied to Russian politics.

It has always been my dream to become a politician. After finishing school I looked for a place where I could get an education in such matters. At this time, my country was still a part of the Soviet Union. During my research I discovered that there was a Department of the History of the Communist Party at Tashkent State University, the aim of which aim was to prepare future politicians. One of the requirements for admittance was a letter of reference from the Komsomol (the young communists) Committee in Tashkent. I tried to do my best for the Komsomol—I was very active, participating in several different Olympiads and winning three of them—and finally I got what I wanted. I passed all my exams, presented the letter of recommendation, entered University, and started to study all aspects of the History of the Communist Party.