Post-Soviet Europe-Asia is reminiscent of an organizational mosaic with many regional groups emerging around Russia, both favoring and challenging its dominance in Eurasia. GUAM (later GUUAM) was one of the early geopolitical formations after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The four former Soviet states of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova were encouraged by the 1996 CFE Treaty of the Conference held in Vienna to form an identity opposed to Russia. The geopolitical significance of this was quickly realized by the West, and they saw GUAM as an important player in the Black Sea region, where Russia's strategic access was of vital importance. GUAM was also important due to its location, since it occupied three land-corridors to Mackinder's Heartland. Poland and the Baltic states had already created an arc between Russia and Western Europe. The rise of Ukraine and Moldova against Russia extended this arc from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea. Uzbekistan joined GUAM in 1999, turning it into GUUAM. This transformed the arc into a circle around Russia extending to the Caspian and further East toward China. GUAM reminded the global strategists of the new forms of Cold War tactics that had resurfaced and the spread in the Great Game trends, which energy geopolitics only served to aggravate. GUAM has been particularly focused on Russia's influence in the Near Abroad. Its effort to check Russia's energy geopolitics was one of the key features. The Ukraine-Russia conflict over gas pricing is a well known issue. It has also tried to create a plank for NATO's advance into the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea. The Partnership for Peace (PfP) program has been a success in Georgia and Ukraine. The fate of GUAM has already been overshadowed by wider regional cooperation among the Black Sea countries. This has far more potential for secure economic and political cooperation, unlike GUAM, which has earned a bad reputation for being too geopolitically embroiled with Russia. The U.S. has been a consistent supporter of the GUAM initiatives. GUAM received another setback when Uzbekistan left the organization in 2005, after seeing the portent dangers of the Color Revolution in Kyrgyzstan and the destabilizing Andijan riots. According to Daly, "GUUAM was slowly replacing its economic orientation with increased military-political cooperation, including the formation of joint military units. As Uzbekistan does not share a contiguous border with the other GUUAM member states, the shift in emphasis away from commercial interests, combined with Uzbekistan's geographical isolation, led Tashkent to conclude that its participation was no longer in the country's best interests." The democratic initiative of the West went against the interests of the Central Asian elite, who wish to retain power through controlled democratic transition. Another fact that distinguishes them is that most of the Central Asian republics are predominantly Muslim societies, whereas the GUAM states are primarily Orthodox Christian, apart from Azerbaijan. India has been keeping an eye on the energy geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus as its own growing energy need demands diversify. This obviously brings the Black Sea region (the principal unit of GUAM) into focus. The Black Sea region has become one of the most vital outlets for Russia's foreign energy trade. And it is in hot competition with the Western powers, which plan to bypass its traditional monopoly with the help of Georgia and Turkey. India's relations with GUAM are under strong caveat from the fact that India can hardly afford to associate itself with the groups challenging Russia in its own sphere of influence. India and Russia have successfully resuscitated the legacy of the Moscow-Delhi ties of Soviet times. India is also one of the biggest customers of Russian military hardware. The Indian approach to GUAM has not been that of a regional organization, rather it has tried to forge bilateral relations with each individual country so as to step aside of any regional influence under GUAM. India has preferred to keep itself closely confined to an economic agenda with these countries. There have been wide-ranging cooperation agreements, tracing the essential past of Soviet days. Reciprocal trade has been slowly growing. India's policy is also distinctive in terms of identifying the political and strategic importance of these individual countries. Ukraine is one of the key countries with which India has been extensively engaged. India has kept a low profile with Moldova and Georgia. India's relations with these countries are influenced by the relations of these countries with Russia. Georgia and Russia have been on adverse terms, since the former has been allowing NATO and the U.S. ample room to maneuver against Russia's economic and strategic interests. Georgia accuses Russia of cornering it and leaving it with no other choice but to join the NATO forces.
-Peter Hulme, Polly Pattullo, Last resorts: The cost of tourism in the Caribbean. London: Cassell/Latin America Bureau and Kingston: Ian Randle, 1996. xiii + 220 pp.-Michel-Rolph Trouillot, Édouard Glissant, Introduction à une poétique du Divers. Montréal: Presses de l'Université de Montréal, 1995. 106 pp.-Bruce King, Tejumola Olaniyan, Scars of conquest / Masks of resistance: The invention of cultural identities in African, African-American, and Caribbean drama. New York: Oxford University Press, 1995. xii + 196 pp.-Sidney W. Mintz, Raymond T. Smith, The Matrifocal family: Power, pluralism and politics. New York: Routledge, 1996. x + 236 pp.-Raymond T. Smith, Michel-Rolph Trouillot, Silencing the past: Power and the production of history. Boston: Beacon, 1995. xix + 191 pp.-Michiel Baud, Samuel Martínez, Peripheral migrants: Haitians and Dominican Republic sugar plantations. Knoxville: University of Tennessee Press, 1995. xxi + 228 pp.-Samuel Martínez, Michiel Baud, Peasants and Tobacco in the Dominican Republic, 1870-1930. Knoxville; University of Tennessee Press, 1995. x + 326 pp.-Robert C. Paquette, Aline Helg, Our rightful share: The Afro-Cuban struggle for equality, 1886-1912. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1995. xii + 361 pp.-Daniel C. Littlefield, Roderick A. McDonald, The economy and material culture of slaves: Goods and Chattels on the sugar plantations of Jamaica and Louisiana. Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press, 1993. xiv + 339 pp.-Jorge L. Chinea, Luis M. Díaz Soler, Puerto Rico: desde sus orígenes hasta el cese de la dominación española. Río Piedras: Editorial de la Universidad de Puerto Rico, 1994. xix + 758 pp.-David Buisseret, Edward E. Crain, Historic architecture in the Caribbean Islands. Gainesville: University Press of Florida, 1994. ix + 256 pp.-Hilary McD. Beckles, Mavis C. Campbell, Back to Africa. George Ross and the Maroons: From Nova Scotia to Sierra Leone. Trenton NJ: Africa World Press, 1993. xxv + 115 pp.-Sandra Burr, Gretchen Gerzina, Black London: Life before emancipation. New Brunswick NJ: Rutgers University Press, 1995. xii + 244 pp.-Carlene J. Edie, Trevor Munroe, The cold war and the Jamaican Left 1950-1955: Reopening the files. Kingston: Kingston Publishers, 1992. xii + 242 pp.-Carlene J. Edie, David Panton, Jamaica's Michael Manley: The great transformation (1972-92). Kingston: Kingston Publishers, 1993. xx + 225 pp.-Percy C. Hintzen, Cary Fraser, Ambivalent anti-colonialism: The United States and the genesis of West Indian independence, 1940-1964. Westport CT: Greenwood, 1994. vii + 233 pp.-Anthony J. Payne, Carlene J. Edie, Democracy in the Caribbean: Myths and realities. Westport CT: Praeger, 1994. xvi + 296 pp.-Alma H. Young, Jean Grugel, Politics and development in the Caribbean basin: Central America and the Caribbean in the New World Order. Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1995. xii + 270 pp.-Alma H. Young, Douglas G. Lockhart ,The development process in small island states. London: Routledge, 1993. xv + 275 pp., David Drakakis-Smith, John Schembri (eds)-Virginia Heyer Young, José Solis, Public school reform in Puerto Rico: Sustaining colonial models of development. Westport CT: Greenwood Press, 1994. x + 171 pp.-Carolyn Cooper, Christian Habekost, Verbal Riddim: The politics and aesthetics of African-Caribbean Dub poetry. Amsterdam: Rodopi, 1993. vii + 262 pp.-Clarisse Zimra, Jaqueline Leiner, Aimé Césaire: Le terreau primordial. Tübingen: Gunter Narr Verlag, 1993. 175 pp.-Clarisse Zimra, Abiola Írélé, Aimé Césaire: Cahier d'un retour au pays natal. With introduction, commentary and notes. Abiola Írélé. Ibadan: New Horn Press, 1994. 158 pp.-Alvina Ruprecht, Stella Algoo-Baksh, Austin C. Clarke: A biography. Barbados: The Press - University of the West Indies; Toronto: ECW Press, 1994. 234 pp.-Sue N. Greene, Glyne A. Griffith, Deconstruction, imperialism and the West Indian novel. Kingston: The Press - University of the West Indies, 1996. xxiii + 147 pp.-Donald R. Hill, Peter Manuel ,Caribbean currents: Caribbean music from Rumba to Reggae. Philadelphia: Temple University Press, 1995. xi + 272 pp., Kenneth Bilby, Michael Largey (eds)-Daniel J. Crowley, Judith Bettelheim, Cuban festivals: An illustrated anthology. New York: Garland Publishing, 1993. x + 261 pp.-Judith Bettelheim, Ramón Marín, Las fiestas populares de Ponce. San Juan: Editorial de la Universidad de Puerto Rico, 1994. 277 pp.-Marijke Koning, Eric O. Ayisi, St. Eustatius: The treasure island of the Caribbean. Trenton NJ: Africa World Press, 1992. xviii + 224 pp.-Peter L. Patrick, Marcyliena Morgan, Language & the social construction of identity in Creole situations. Los Angeles: Center for Afro-American studies, UCLA, 1994. vii + 158 pp.-John McWhorter, Tonjes Veenstra, Serial verbs in Saramaccan: Predication and Creole genesis. The Hague: Holland Academic Graphic, 1996. x + 217 pp.-John McWhorter, Jacques Arends, The early stages of creolization. Amsterdam/Philadelphia: John Benjamins, 1995. xv + 297 pp.
It is no accident that Ronald Reagan rose to the pinnacle of power at a moment when there was a rising wave of intellectual pessimism. Numerous theories were being offered as to why the trajectory of the American experiment has passed its apogee. Reagan's greatest gift to his country has been his soaring sense of possibilities. To see where he got it, look at what he has seen in a long life. However, a great communicator will communicate complicated ideas, hard choices and bad news. Reagan has had little aptitude and less appetite for those tasks. But, then, communication is not really Reagan's forte. Rhetoric is. Rhetoric has been central to Reagan's presidency because Reagan has intended his statecraft to be soulcraft. Hi aim has been to restore the plain language of right and wrong, good and evil, for the purpose of enabling the people to make the most of freedom. For all his deplorable inattentiveness regarding many aspects of his office, he has been assiduous about nurturing a finer civic culture, as he understands it. Here, then, is the crowning paradox of Reagan's career. For all his disparagement of government, he has given it the highest possible purpose, the improvement of the soul of the nation. This paper investigates Ronald Reagan's First Inaugural Address by applying the Burkeian Dramatistic Pentad Approach. In the course of investigation, this paper utilizes the Burkeian Concept of Identification and dramatistic pentad. By employlng these methods, it is believed strongly that a thorough analysis of the rhetorical effort would provide the critic with a more comprehensive understanding of the real motives and motivations of the speaker. The Burkeian approach to rhetorical analysis leads the critic in a unique direction. Rather than asking oneself how the speaker attempted persuasion, the Burkeian critic asks how the pentad functioned in the pursuit for identification. Identification is the process by which the speaker binds himself with the audience "consubstantially", a super-identification of the audience with the actor or orator in which listeners suspend their sense of individuality and perceive the speaker as a projection of themselves as a group. Reagan (agent) sought to establish identification through various means (AGENCIES) such as rhetorical questions, statistics, and narratives. Beyond these verbal agencies, physical trappings aided in setting the proper atmosphere (scene) for speaker-audience identification. The speech (act) dealt with Reagan's desire to get the American public to support all his proposed plans. His goals (purposes) were to appeal to the American public, to promote social cohesion, and to reinforce audience commitment. He had relied upon many rhetorical strategies. He used first person plural pronouns, strong admonitions, personal, patriotic, and fear appeals. Reagan also employed echos and paraphrases by past famous presidents to produce a sense of realism as to the amount of time and effort needed to solve America's problems. Many uniting phrases, such as "all must share," "all of us together," are used. More importantly, he deployed the spirit of solidarity by siding with the people against the common enemy, the government. The Inaugural Address centered on the theme of the capacity of ordinary people performing extraordinary feats. Throughout his four hundred and forty four speeches delivered during his presidency, Reagan dependedfon positive populism - a set of appeals that emphasize the quiet strengths of the common people, and indirectly to the commonness of the leader (Reagan). Reagan traded on the notion, inherent to populist discourse, that when you compliment people a lot, they cannot help liking you for it. Reagan was simply a master of the populist anecdote. His ability to express the essence of ordinary life in endearing and reassuring images, and at the same time associating himself with them via his personal life history, contributed significantly to his avuncular ethos. The author is confident beyond a shadow of reasonable doubt that Ronald Wilson Reagan will go down in history as being placed in the front rank of the second echelon of American presidents. The first echelon includes those who were pulled to greatness by the gravity of great crises. George Washington and Thomas Jefferson were yanked by the perilous flux of the founding era. Abraham Lincoln was drawn by disunion and the need to define the nation's meaning. Theodore Roosevelt was hauled by the pressing need to tame the energies of industrialism. Woodrow Wilson by America's entry into the vortex of world affairs, Franklin Roosevelt by the Depression and the dictators, and John F. Kennedy by his tactful handling of the Cuban affairs, the Cold War, the Vietnam War, and the Civil Rights movement. Reagan is the last president for whom the Depression will have been a formative experience, the last president whose foremost model was the first modern president, Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Reagan, like Roosevelt, has been a great reassurer, a steadying captain who calmed the passengers and, to some extent, the unpredictable rough sea.
Tourist flows from certain regions of origin to certain destinations display a surprising amount of historical persistence in spite of profound changes in the type of tourism, touristic and transport infrastructure and touristic trends. This might be explained by geographic proximity, complementarity as regards leisure facilities, similarity of languages, cultural affinity etc. One of the most striking examples is the "return" of Czechs as tourists to the Croatian coast. The exceptional in this case is that a traditional flow has regenerated after four decades of almost a break, caused by the global political situation of a Cold War and an Iron Curtain. Czechs, in the first line inhabitants of Prague and other urban centers of the Czech Lands, used to frequent the spas of the northern Croatian coast before World War I in large numbers. Baska on the island of Krk, e.g., owed its development to a seaside resort mainly to Czech interest and Emil Geistlich, a publisher from Prague, who set the first touristic initiatives there. In 1910 the resort was officially titled "Croatian-Czech seaside and health resort" and 3 out of 4 guests originated from the Czech Lands (Sersic, 1994, p. 83). But there were other "national" Czech resorts too. In the interwar period the influx from Czechia became less prominent, albeit it was still remarkable. Even in Opatija, although at that time under Italian administration, in 1929 Czech guests ranked second after German tourists. Yet, Opatija hosted more Czech guests than tourists from Austria or even Italy (Statistica delle stazioni di cura . 1929). During the communist period the flow of tourists from Czechia to the Croatian coast followed quite closely the ups and downs of political liberalization and rigidity oscillating between figures near to zero in the 1940s, 1950s and early 1960s and relative highs in the late 1960s (Prague Spring) and in the mid- 1980s. But immediately after the break-down of Communism in 1989 the flow of Czechoslovakian (actually mainly Czech) tourists to the Croatian coast increased significantly taking advantage of the (due to the wars in Slovenia and Croatia) low prices and easily available accommodation facilities. In 1994 tourists from the Czech Republic held the highest share in foreign overnight stays (Croatian Tourism Figures 1995, p. 24). Already in 1992 Czechoslovakian tourists had spent the relative or absolute majority of foreign tourist nights in 14 resorts statistically documented (Promet turista u primorskim opcinama 1992,1993). Among them were Baska, Krk, Njivice, Rabac, Rab, Kampor and Medveja. ; Turistički promet iz nekih regija prema određenim destinacijama pokazuje iznenađujuće veliku povijesnu postojanost usprkos dubokim promjenama u turizmu, turističkoj i prometnoj infrastrukturi i turističkim trendovima. To se može objasniti geografskom blizinom, komplementarnošću pogodnosti za odmor, sličnošću jezika, kulturnim afinitetom itd. Jedan od iznenađujućih primjera je "povratak" čeških turista na hrvatski Jadran. Posebnost u ovom slučaju je u tome da se tradicionalni dolazak regenerirao nakon četiri desetljeća gotovo potpunog prekida uzrokovanog sveopćom političkom situacijom "hladnog rata" i "željezne zavjese". Česi, u prvom redu stanovnici Praga i drugih urbanih centara bili su u velikom broju česti gosti turističkih mjesta (toplica) na sjevernoj hrvatskoj obali prije Prvog svjetskog rata. Baška na Krku zapravo duguje razvoj u turističko mjesto češkom ulaganju i Emilu Gristlichu, publicisti iz Praga, koji je tu uspostavio prvu turističku inicijativu. Godine 1910. mjesto se zvanično nazivalo "Hrvatsko-češko kupalište i lječilišno mjesto", a tri od četiri gosta bila su iz čeških zemalja (Seršić, 1994:83). Ali, bilo je i drugih "čeških kupališta". Između dva rata dolazak Čeha bio je znatno smanjen iako još uvijek značajan. Čak u Opatiji, iako u to vrijeme pod talijanskom administracijom, 1929., Češki su gosti bili drugi poslije njemačkih turista. Opatijski su hoteli ugostili više čeških turista nego turista iz Austrije ili čak iz Italije (Statistica delle stazioni di cura . 1929.). Za vrijeme komunističkog razdoblja promet turista iz Češke mijenjao se (padao i rastao) u skladu s oscilacijama političke liberalizacije i stege, između brojeva blizu nule u godina 1940-im, 1950-im i ranim 1960-im, i relativno visokih brojeva u kasnijim 1960-im (Praško proljeće) i sredinom 1980-ih. Ali odmah nakon pada komunizma, 1989., promet čehoslovačkih (sada uglavnom Čeha) turista prema hrvatskoj obali značajno se povećao korištenjem prednosti (zbog rata u Sloveniji i Hrvatskoj), niskih cijena i vrlo pogodnih smještajnih usluga. Godine 1994. turisti iz Češke Republike bili su na najvišem mjestu stranih noćenja (Croatian Tourist Figures 1995:24). Već u 1992. godini češki su turisti ostvarili relativnu i apsolutnu većinu stranih turističkih noćenja u 14 mjesta koja su statistički obrađena (Promet turista u primorskim općinama, 1992, 1993). Među njima bili su: Baška, Krk, Njivice, Rabac, Rab, Kampor i Medveja.
Osady interglacjału mazowieckiego w Boczowie występują pod dwoma poziomami glin zwałowych zlodowaceń: północnopolskiego i środkowopolskiego. Z osadów z głęb. 81,5-89;7 m wykonano analizę pyłkową oraz oznaczono owoce, nasiona i megaspory, z czego uzyskano obraz sukcesji roślinnej odpowiadający interglacjałowi. Do interglacjału mazowieckiego zaliczono te osady na podstawie fauny i sytuacji geologicznej oraz korelacji ze stanowiskami interglacjału holsztyńskiego z NRD.INTERGLACIAL DEPOSITS FROM BOCZÓW NEAR RZEPIN (WESTERN POLAND)In the profile of the Quaternary from the vicinities of Boczów (Fig. 1) the deposits of the North and Middle Polish Glaciations are best developed. The thickness of the Quaternary changes from 40 to over 100 m depending on morphology of both the terrain surface and the top surface of the Tertiary. The latter is characterized by large denivellations as Tertiary deposits are glacitectonically piled up to about 140 m a.s.l. on one hand and incised by valleys to 120 m below s.l. on the other hand.At Boczów the deposits of the Masovian Interglacial were penetrated by drilling at depths ranging from 66.5 to 94.0 m below terrain surface (from 21.0 m a.s.l. to 6.5 m below s.l.) so they are 27.5 m thick.The Interglacial series comprises silts, silty sands and gyttja, that is deposits of stagnant and very slowly flowing waters. The list of molluscans identified (Tab. 1) mainly comprises species inhabiting stagnant waters.The profile of Interglacial deposits may be divided into 2 parts: lower, highly variable in lithology and yielding fauna of molluscans, and upper, more monotonous in lithology and usually without faunal remains. They are separated by a cocquina layer about 7 cm thick and mainly consisting of shells of gastropod Paludina diluviana K u n t h (depth interval from 87.53 to 87.60 m). The subdivision into lower and upper parts is further supported by results of palynological studies as the boundary between the phytophases II and III was delineated at the depth of 87.6 m.The pollen analysis covered Interglacial deposits derived from depth interval 81.5-89.7 m (Fig. 2). The results of the analysis as well as identifications of fruits, seeds and megaspores (Tab: 2) made it possible to reconstruct vegetational succession corresponding to Interglacial period.During the first part of this Interglacial (period I) the climate was cold, boreal. Vegetation predominating in these times was forming pine-birch forests. The share of herbaceous plants ,(NAP) was initially fairly high, equal 25010 (Tab. 3). Grasses (Gramineae) and sedges (Cyperaceae) were most common here. There were also :present Chenopodiaceae, Caryophyllaceae, Compositae, Ranunculaceae, Artemisia and other plants. Herbaceous plants were presumably forming wide meadows among pine-birch forests at the beginning of the first period of development of vegetation from Boczów. Pines and birches were accompanied by spruce (Picea) and, sometimes alder (Alnus) whilst stenothermal deciduous trees (Quercus, Ulmus, Tilia) appeared in negligible amounts.The second period was characterized by retreat of birch and a drop in share of pine. Spruce (Picea) and alder (Alnus) were predominating at these times as their share increased up to 34.5% and 32% at the most, respectively. The share of other trees was almost negligible and that of herbaceous plants was also low. This period displayed a marked warming up of climate in relation to the former.A further amelioration of climate took place in the third period which corresponds to the climatic optimum. The resulting climate was of the temperate type. Forests from this period were characterized by predominance of fir (Abies), the share of which was equal 52.5% at the most. The share of alder (Alnus) was equal about 20%. From these times there are also recorded the highest shares of trees such as oak (Quercus - 10.5%), lime-tree (Tilia - 5.0%), hazel (Corylus - 8.0%) and hornbeam (Carpinus - 10.0%). The shares of these stenothermal deciduous trees are not very high as for the climatic optimum but, nevertheless, it may be stated that the whole floral assemblage from this period and shares of its particular components make it possible to allocate the pollen spectrum from Bocz6w in interglacial period.The climate deteriorated during the fourth period, following the climatic optimum. Fir (Abies) as well as hazel (Corylus) and hornbeam (Carpinus) gradually disappeared and the share of oak (Quercus) and alder (Alnus) decreased at the advantage of pine (Pinus) and birch (Betula). The share of herbaceous plants (NAP) also increased, up to 26.5%. The climate predominating at the end of the fourth period was rather cool, boreal.The results of palynological, paleozoological and lithological analyses evidence that this is interglacial deposit. Its age is indicated by the presence of gastropod Paludina diluviana K u n t h. Some conclusions concerning its stratigraphic position may be also grawn from geological setting and correlations with profiles of the Holstein Interglacial in eastern parts of the German Democratic Republic (M. Hannemann, 1964; A. G. Cepek, 1968).
In the previous article "Prediction on Clopidogrel's Abnormal Behaviors and Pharmacobehavioral Economics", the authors propose to establish new disciplines such as pharmacobehavioral economics. Although the establishment of a new discipline normally brings about a breakthrough in the development of the field, from December 2012 to July 2021, this paper had been rejected by many journals, and the correct results of empirical studies turned into a hot potato. During this process, both invisible hand and visible hand became barriers to the formal publication of this paper, justice and morality were ignored,and the market and regulators failed. So far, for clopidogrel whose global cumulative sales have exceeded $90 billion, the treatment guidelines based on the wrong results of Phase III CAPRIE cannot be corrected, and the global medical economic resources have been excessively consumed for a long time. At present, the global COVID-19 is serious, but some false information has been widely publicized by some media, misleading the public, causing confusion in thinking, harming the epidemic prevention and control, and interfering with economic recovery. However, the rumour-mongering media is hard to suppress. Therefore, we suggest that new disciplines such as quantitative media ethics etc. should be established to conduct ethical evaluation or hierarchical management of economic and media behaviors from a new perspective, reduce the ability of inferior media to mislead the public, and construct world stability and peace under the new perspective. The author proposes to establish an eight-level grading standard for media based on publishing false information or rumors. Based on the prediction function combined with pharmacobehavioral economics or medical-behavioral economics and game theory, within one day 8 years ago, from massive data, we quickly found that there were serious evidence-based medicine data errors and illogical in another drug with abnormal behavior. The author designs a new economic system, which is the new negative feedback mechanism of market economy operation when the market and the government or regulation failed at the same time. The process of disclosing the illogical data and wrong results of CAPRIE trial, which cannot be officially published so far, shows that absolute neoliberal economics should sometimes be just a skilled method or methodology for high IQ people or interest groups to transfer wealth as much as possible under the banner of freedom economics. In economic activities, "general disequilibrium theory", rather than "general equilibrium theory", widely exists in market economic activities. Therefore, it can be seen that the market economy in which capital participates is usually asymmetric, and asymmetric economics is the mainstream of market economy. In a discipline, the accurate interpretation of terms is crucial for communication of the discipline. It is suggested to replace "invisible hand" with "profit driven hand". Although pharmacobehavioral economics etc. can be used to predict and reveal issues from abnormal behaviors in the pharmaceutical industry under asymmetry information, it can be more used to describe or predict the relationship between pharmaceutical economic growth and R&D, clinic, prevention and health care behaviors from a positive perspective. What we can predict in the future is that in some major disease treatment areas, there will inevitably be many drugs with annual cumulative sales of more than $50 billion and more than $30 billion within a 10 to 30 year cycle after the drug is put into the market. Although the change or improvement to behavior in the treatment of diseases may sometimes lead to the decrease or increase in benefits of the pharmaceutical industry itself, they may bring significant improvement to the global economy and more security or health to mankind, such as the change of the definition and treatment behavior of hypertension, and the changes of treatment behavior of malaria and viral cold. The current guidelines on the clinical treatment behaviors of hypertension do not even consider that hypertension can be cured in the design ideas, the definition and standard of hypertension has been wrong for a long time, which also leads to the mistake of the guidelines for the clinical medication of hypertension. The borderline hypertension should be regarded as hypertension and hypertension that should be treated immediately. Perhaps the subversive revision of medical textbooks and the global guidelines on hypertension will be no less efficient than the development of twenty new antihypertensive drugs. It will also help to significantly reduce the mortality of stroke or cardiovascular disease etc, and a huge loss in productivity. Comparative studies on the medical and health behavioral economics, government behaviors and political ethics of some regions or countries in the current COVID-19 are not merely conducive to rapid epidemic prevention and control, saving lives, improving national governance capacity and level, and effectively promoting regional, national and global economic recovery, but also conducive to promoting the reasonable construction of quantitative administrative ethics and other disciplines and the classification of politicians or statesmen, which is more conducive to cultivate more peace fighters, eliminate the research of biological weapons, reduce the number of conflicts and wars, and promote world peace.
This paper analyzes the transfer and spread of laparoscopy in Korea in the 1970–80s and its impact on Korean society from a historical perspective. It raises three questions: first, what was the reason that laparoscopy was introduced and spread in Korea, even though other contraceptive technologies were already in use? Second, what was the impact of laparoscopy on the Family Planning Program in Korea? Third, what subsequent effect did laparoscopy have on obstetricians in Korea? To clarify these points, this study examines government documents, NGO reports, and medical research papers produced in Korea and the United States of America (USA). There were three main reasons due to which laparoscopy was introduced and spread in Korea. Firstly, it was the necessity and the possibility of new contraceptive technology. The limitations of existing contraceptive technology led to the need for tubal sterilization. Intrauterine devices and oral contraceptives caused many side effects due to defects in the technology itself and baseless target amount; additionally, they were a substantial economic burden due to their long-term costs. Vasectomy and artificial abortion were suggested as alternatives, but the limitations were obvious; vasectomy could not overcome the psychological resistance among males, while artificial abortion was vulnerable to the ethical condemnation of sacrificing life. As intrauterine devices, oral contraceptives, vasectomy, and artificial abortion exposed several limitations, tubal sterilization, which had not been discussed as an alternative, began to emerge as a viable method. The Hospital Family Planning Program and the introduction of laparoscopy realized and expanded the possibilities of tubal sterilization, which until the early 1970s had been a difficult surgery, only available at hospital-level institutions. This constraint was resolved with the implementation of the Hospital Family Planning Program in response to the rise of the urban population problem. As hospitals, concentrated in cities, emerged as new centers of family planning, the technological limitations blocking the spread of tubal sterilization were naturally solved; further, laparoscopic surgery, introduced in the mid-1970s, expanded possibilities of tubal sterilization. With the introduction of laparoscopy, tubal sterilization changed from a complicated surgery requiring hospital-level institutions to a simple surgery available at clinic-level institutions. With both necessity and possibility in place, tubal sterilization became a key means of the Family Planning Program. The second reason is that laparoscopy met the interests of the governments and medical professionals of both the USA and Korea. In the late 1960s, the governments of both countries sought new means to replace the existing contraceptive technologies. As mentioned above, intrauterine devices and oral contraceptives caused frequent side effects and were quite expensive. Under these circumstances, laparoscopy emerged as a groundbreaking technology for popularizing tubal sterilization, decreasing the difficulty of the operation and increasing its safety. Although the problem of its high initial cost remained, a single surgery could have a permanent contraceptive effect, thus, it seemed to be an economical option. For both governments, laparoscopy was an excellent technical solution to overcome the technological and economic limitations of existing contraceptive technologies. Laparoscopy also met the interests of medical practitioners in both countries. Obstetricians in developed countries, leading the development and diffusion of contraceptive technology, were able to secure huge amounts of clinical cases through worldwide population control projects. Proving the effectiveness of new medical technologies required a sufficient number of cases; however, this was not an easy task in developed countries, where population problems were not prominent. The solution was the 'extension of the operating room.' If the surgical procedure could be standardized and the results could be reported in a systemized format, cases could be collected easily from various countries. Medical professionals in Korea also saw their benefits. Based on the network between Korea and the USA through the standardization of laparoscopic surgery, obstetricians in the former country received technology transfer and exerted authority as experienced surgeons. Behind the Johns Hopkins Program for International Education in Gynecology and Obstetrics lay the overlapping interests of the governments and medical professionals of both countries. Lastly, laparoscopy was technically improved to suit the situation of developing countries. When first used for tubal sterilization, laparoscopy was not an appropriate technique to be used in developing countries as it was neither safe nor cheap. Laparoscopic surgeries sometimes caused complications, such as perforation of the small intestine; furthermore, in developing countries, where medical personnel and facilities were scarce, such complications could threaten the lives of the patients. The lack of safety was a major flaw preventing the spread of laparoscopic sterilization, as it could not be implemented at the expense of people's lives. The complexity and low economic efficiency of laparoscopy were also problematic. Although it was simple and inexpensive compared to open surgery, it was still complex and too expensive to be widely used in developing countries. To solve these problems, public and private organizations such as the United States Agency for International Development and the Ford Foundation, and several medical professionals dove into the improvement of laparoscopy; consequently, laparoscopy became affordable and safe enough for developing countries. With three conditions in place, the necessity and the possibility for tubal sterilization, overlapping of the interests in technology transfer, and technological improvement to suit the environment of the developing countries, laparoscopy could be transferred and spread rapidly. After laparoscopy was introduced in Korea, laparoscopic tubal sterilization quickly matched other contraceptive techniques and finally outpaced them in the early 1980s. The second and third questions correspond to the influence of laparoscopy on Korean society. Regarding the impact on the Family Planning Program, laparoscopy solidified and deepened the male-dominant gender order. The Family Planning Program had always targeted women. It was the result of the consensus of the two major powers, namely, government officials and doctors; most government officials viewed family planning as the job of a 'housewife,' and doctors also focused mostly on female contraception. It is no exaggeration to state that the Family Planning Program was a project to spread female contraceptive technologies. The budget was focused on the dissemination of intrauterine devices and oral contraceptives rather than vasectomy; in turn, it became evidence proving the effectiveness of targeting women, fixing them the subject of the program. Laparoscopy consolidated this flow. The side effects of intrauterine devices and oral contraceptives, ironically, could resolve gender inequality in family planning strategies. As the sustainability of the program became uncertain, a group of bureaucrats and doctors who had shifted all responsibility to women began to reorient the plan toward vasectomy. With the introduction of laparoscopy, however, the plan focused on women again. As laparoscopy popularized tubal sterilization, political will toward vasectomy decreased accordingly. In the circular logic by which the availability of technology determined the direction of the policy, and such policy proved the value of technology, women became the set target of the Family Planning Program, and laparoscopy became a driving force to maintain this vicious circle. The same was true for the initiative of the Family Planning Program. The program was designed and implemented by male doctors and policy-makers from the beginning. The women's birth control movement, which existed until the end of the 1950s, came to an end with the military coup. The military regime excluded female organizations from the program, and the international organizations represented by the International Planned Parenthood Federation focused on population control projects under the order of Cold War rather than women's right to control childbirth according to their will. Given the change of circumstances, the initiative of the plan was transferred to a group of male doctors who had acquired knowledge of preventive medicine, population theory, and had become proficient in English by studying abroad; they emerged as a point of contact between the international order and Korea. Furthermore, they took over key posts in the public and private sectors. The introduction of laparoscopy strengthened the male dominance of the program. In the 1960s, although a group of male doctors led the plan's design and supervision, it was the women who were tasked with its implementation in the field. Family planning agents were in charge of inserting the intrauterine devices and providing guidance on the usage of oral contraceptives as well as promoting and enlightening the program. The situation changed with the popularization of laparoscopic tubal sterilization. As the program was reorganized to focus on laparoscopic surgery, the role of female agents was reduced to promoting the new technology, while obstetricians—predominantly male—emerged as the main actors intervening in women's bodies. Thus, laparoscopy was a technology that reproduced and reinforced gender inequality in terms of the plan's targets and initiatives. Laparoscopy also had an impact on the Korean obstetrician community. In short, it was the basis of technological catch-up. Elite obstetricians in Korea who joined the international trends of obstetrics continued to face new technologies, such as surgical microscopes used for microsurgery (e.g., tubal reanastomosis) and in vitro fertilization (IVF). Encouraged by the introduction of laparoscopy, obstetricians in Korea once again tried to keep up with the trends in global obstetrics and attained some success. This was because laparoscopy created the necessity and the possibility of technological catch-up. The popularization of laparoscopic tubal sterilization meant an increase in the demand to restore fertility. Although the proportion of those who wanted reversal surgery was not significantly high, the absolute number was not small because sterilization was performed on hundreds of thousands of people every year. This resulted in the demand for tubal reanastomosis and IVF. Laparoscopy created the possibility of introducing new reproductive technologies also. Microscopic tubal reversal was transferred to Korea through the same network by which laparoscopic tubal sterilization had been introduced. The main agents of technical education and financial support, and the operation of the training programs, were identical. The case of IVF was slightly different. In the case of IVF, universities and laboratories were competing to achieve success first. In this competitive structure, nobody wanted to disclose their technology; therefore, it was not easy for medical professionals of developing countries to go abroad to learn new skills. However, the human network established during the introduction of laparoscopy enabled many Korean obstetricians to seek training overseas, thereby introducing IVF technology to Korea. In conclusion, laparoscopy was developed and spread through the unique social structures of the time, whilst reproducing and strengthening them at the same time. First, in the political order of the Cold War, laparoscopy was rediscovered and improved as a means of intervening in the population of developing countries and then became the basis for the continuation of population control projects. Second, in the patriarchal setup of Korea, laparoscopy was introduced through the Family Planning Program assuming women as the main target of the program; further, the spread of laparoscopic sterilization circularly strengthened this assumption and the dominance of male doctors. Finally, in the context of the aspirations to high technologies of medical professionals in Korea, laparoscopy could defeat competing technologies and spread quickly; moreover, it functioned as a basis for technological catch-up. In short, laparoscopy was a technology that mediated and reinforced the multilayered structures of the Cold War, gender politics, and technological aspirations. 이 논문은 1970년대와 1980년대 한국에서 복강경 기술이 도입되고 확산하는 과정과 그것이 한국 사회에 미친 영향을 역사적으로 분석하였다. 문제의식은 다음의 세 가지였다. 첫 번째, 이미 다른 피임 기술이 보급되어 있던 상황에서, 복강경 기술이 한국으로 도입되고 확산할 수 있었던 까닭은 무엇인가. 두 번째, 이렇게 도입되고 확산한 복강경 기술은 한국 가족계획 사업에 어떤 영향을 주었는가. 세 번째, 복강경 기술은 이후 한국의 산부인과학계에 어떠한 영향을 주었는가. 이를 밝히기 위해 1970년대와 1980년대 당시 한국과 미국에서 생산된 여러 정부 문건과 비정부기구 보고서, 의학 연구 논문 등을 살펴보았으며, 그러한 탐구의 결과 다음과 같은 결론을 내릴 수 있었다. 먼저 복강경 기술이 한국으로 도입되고 확산할 수 있었던 이유는 크게 세 가지였다. 첫 번째는 난관 불임 수술이라는 새로운 피임 기술의 필요성과 가능성이 갖추어졌기 때문이다. 1970년대에 들어서면서 기존에 사용되던 자궁내장치와 경구피임약, 정관 불임 수술 등의 방법은 기술 자체의 결함과 근거 없는 목표량 설정에 따른 잦은 부작용, 심리적 저항 등의 한계를 노출했다. 이에 따라 많은 의학자와 인구학자는 난관 불임 수술이라는 대안 기술에 주목했다. 물론 난관 불임 수술은 수술실과 입원실이라는 물적 조건을 갖춘 병원에서만 시행 가능한 까다로운 기술이었다. 하지만 한국의 경우 도시 가족계획 사업의 시행으로 병원이 사업의 새로운 중심으로 부상하고, 여기에 1970년대 중반에 도입된 복강경이 수술의 물적 조건을 완화하면서, 이러한 한계는 상당 부분 극복될 수 있었다. 두 번째는 복강경 기술이 미국과 한국 양국 정부와 의학자의 이해관계에 고루 부합하였기 때문이다. 기존의 피임 기술이 한계를 노출하는 상황 속에서, 미국 정부와 한국 정부는 복강경 난관 불임 수술을 시행함으로써 인구 조절 사업을 통한 자유 진영의 수호와 경제 개발 계획을 지속할 수 있었다. 복강경 기술은 양국 의학자의 이해에도 합치하였다. 피임 기술의 개발과 확산을 주도하던 선진국의 여러 의학자는 수술법을 표준화하여 보급하고 규격화된 양식으로 결과를 보고받는 '수술실의 확장'을 통해 막대한 양의 임상례를 확보할 수 있었다. 한국의 의학자 역시 복강경 수술의 표준화로 이어진 양국의 연결망을 바탕으로 선진국의 기술을 이전받는 동시에, 다량의 임상례를 생산하는 자로서의 권위를 누릴 수 있었다. 마지막은 복강경이 개발도상국의 상황에 맞게 개량되었기 때문이다. 난관 불임 수술에 사용되기 시작한 초기만 해도, 복강경은 개발도상국의 환경에 적합한 기술이 아니었다. 복강경은 기대만큼 안전하지도, 기대만큼 저렴하지도 못했다. 이를 해결하기 위하여, 국제개발처와 포드 재단 등의 관민 기관과 여러 의학자가 복강경의 개량에 뛰어들었다. 복잡한 부품은 간단한 부품으로 교체되었고, 위험한 방식은 안전한 방식으로 대체되었다. 이렇게 난관 불임 수술의 필요성과 가능성이 갖추어지고, 기술 이전을 향한 이해관계가 중첩되는 동시에, 이전 대상국의 환경에 따라 복강경이 개량됨에 따라, 복강경은 급속도로 이전되고 확산할 수 있었다. 한국에 복강경 기술이 이전된 이후 복강경을 이용한 난관 불임 수술은 다른 피임 기술을 빠르게 추격하였고, 마침내 1980년대 초반에 이르러 수위(首位)를 차지했다. 두 번째와 세 번째 문제의식은 복강경 기술이 한국 사회에 미친 영향에 해당한다. 먼저 가족계획 사업에 끼친 영향이다. 요컨대 복강경은 남성으로 치우친 사업의 젠더 질서를 고착화하고 심화하였다. 복강경은 사업의 대상을 여성으로 고정하는 결과를 가져왔다. 사업을 주도하던 양대 세력인 정부 관료와 의사 집단은 사업의 초기부터 줄곧 여성을 대상으로 삼았다. 자궁내장치와 경구피임약의 확산이 정체하면서 정관 불임 수술이 대안으로 떠올랐지만, 복강경의 도입과 함께 사업은 다시 여성으로 집중되었다. 사업의 주도권 역시 마찬가지였다. 남성 의사 집단이 사업의 설계와 감독을 주도하였지만, 복강경이 도입되기 전까지만 해도 현장에서의 실행만큼은 여성의 몫이었다. 그러나 사업이 복강경을 중심으로 재편되며 여성 요원의 역할은 새로운 기술을 홍보하고 안내하는 수준으로 축소되었고, 남성이 다수이던 산부인과 의사가 여성의 신체에 개입하는 주요 행위자가 되었다. 이렇게 복강경은 사업의 대상과 주도권의 측면에서, 젠더 불평등을 재생산하고 확대하였다. 다음은 복강경 기술이 한국 산부인과학계에 미친 영향이다. 복강경을 계기로 산부인과학의 국제적 조류에 합류한 한국의 엘리트 산부인과 의사는 계속해서 수술 현미경이나 체외수정과 같은 새로운 기술을 도입하였다. 이는 복강경이 기술 추격의 필요성과 가능성을 만들어낸 결과였다. 먼저 복강경은 신기술이 도입되어야 할 필요성을 창출했다. 복강경의 확산에 따른 난관 불임 수술의 보급은 다시 생식능력을 복원하려는 수요의 성장으로 이어졌다. 복강경은 새로운 기술이 도입되는 가능성이기도 했다. 현미경을 이용한 난관 복원 수술은 복강경 난관 불임 수술을 도입하던 연결망을 통해 한국으로 이전되었고, 체외 수정 역시 복강경 기술의 이전 과정에서 생성된 인적 연결망을 바탕으로 도입될 수 있었다. 이처럼 복강경은 당대의 고유한 사회 구조를 매개로 만들어지고 퍼져 나갔고, 동시에 이러한 구조를 재생산하고 강화하였다. 먼저 오래된 기술인 복강경은 냉전의 정치 상황 속에서 개발도상국의 인구에 개입하는 수단으로 재조명되며 비로소 개량될 수 있었고, 이렇게 개량되어 보급됨으로써 다시 인구 조절 사업을 이어나가는 바탕이 되었다. 또한 남성으로 치우친 한국의 젠더 질서 속에서 복강경은 여성을 사업의 주요 대상으로 상정하는 사업 기조를 매개로 한국에 도입되어, 다시금 여성을 사업의 대상으로 고정하는 동시에, 남성 의사의 주도권을 강화하기도 했다. 마지막으로 복강경은 선진국을 향한 여러 엘리트 의학자의 열망에 힘입어 빠르게 이전되고 확산하였으며, 이는 이후 수술 현미경과 체외수정 기술을 추격하는 기반으로 작동하였다. 요컨대 복강경은 냉전과 젠더 불평등, 그리고 선진 기술을 향한 선망이라는 당대의 구조를 매개하고 강화하는 기술이었다. ; open ; 박사
В кратком выступлении сопоставляются два важнейших документа ХХ в., сохраняющих определяющее значение для судеб сотрудничества и безопасности в Европе и развития международных отношений в мире в целом. ; In my brief speech, I comment on and compare the two most important documents of the 20th century that still have a truly great significance for the future of co-operation and security in Europe, moreover, for the development of international relations in the world. 21 Nov. 1990, representatives of the supreme power of all European states, as well as the United States and Canada signed in Paris a fundamental international instrument for establishment of new European peaceful order after the end of 'cold war'. It entered the history as The Charter of Paris for a New Europe. There was no more significant and important international instrument in the twentieth century than the Charter of Paris. For the first time in the entire history of Europe pan-European consensus on ways to achieve the principles and mechanisms of European security and co-operation was reached. In The Charter, the most important principles of security and collaboration among the European nations have been formulated: "… we renew our pledge to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any State, or from acting in any other manner inconsistent with the principles or purposes of those documents. We recall that non-compliance with obligations under the Charter of the United Nations constitutes a violation of international law" "With the ending of the division of Europe, we will strive for a new quality in our security relations while fully respecting each other's freedom of choice in that respect. Security is indivisible and the security of every participating State is inseparably linked to that of all the others. We therefore pledge to co-operate in strengthening confidence and security among us and in promoting arms control and disarmamen" "We reaffirm the equal rights of peoples and their right to self-determination in conformity with the Charter of the United Nations and with the relevant norms of international law, including those relating to territorial integrity of States" "… our growing interdependence will help to overcome the mistrust of decades, to increase stability and to build a united Europe" "We want Europe to be a source of peace, open to dialogue and to co-operation with other countries, welcoming exchanges and involved in the search for common responses to the challenges of the future". This was a new philosophy of peace and cooperation among peoples for the future of the 21st century, outlined in the Charter of Paris. Seven years have passed. And so, as an antithesis to The Charter, The Project for the New American Century, which the US administration set before the American and world public opinion, comes into being June 3, 1997. Present US presidential Jeb Bush, the representative of the Bush dynasty, took part in its elaboration. Here are much talking passages from this project: "We aim to make the case and rally support for American global leadership. … Does the United States have the resolve to shape a new century favorable to American principles and interests?" "We seem to have forgotten the essential elements of the Reagan Administration's success: a military that is strong and ready to meet both present and future challenges; a foreign policy that boldly and purposefully promotes American principles abroad; and national leadership that accepts the United States' global responsibilities" "… we cannot safely avoid the responsibilities of global leadership or the costs that are associated with its exercise. … If we shirk our responsibilities, we invite challenges to our fundamental interests. The history of the 20th century should have taught us that it is important to shape circumstances before crises emerge, and to meet threats before they become dire. The history of this century should have taught us to embrace the cause of American leadership" "… we need to increase defense spending significantly if we are to carry out our global responsibilities today and modernize our armed forces for the future" "… we need to strengthen our ties to democratic allies and to challenge regimes hostile to our interests and values" "… we need to promote the cause of political and economic freedom abroad" "… we need to accept responsibility for America's unique role in preserving and extending an international order friendly to our security, our prosperity, and our principles" "Such a Reaganite policy of military strength and moral clarity may not be fashionable today. But it is necessary if the United States is to build on the successes of this past century and to ensure our security and our greatness in the next". So what happened? Why the United States does transformed the Charter of Paris, the greatest achievement of political thought and practice of the 20th century, into meaningless and worthless piece of paper, and tried to bury it in oblivion? Why Europe, devoid of unity, security and cooperation, has found itself on the verge of a new pre-war political crisis that could at any moment turn into a real war? The fact is that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States received an unprecedented opportunity to establish its global hegemony. They purposefully pursue this goal, not disdaining any means and methods up to provoke war in Europe. Indeed, thanks to wars in the European continent in 20th century, the United States removed enormous geopolitical and economic benefits and become a superpower, which has imposed its domination to Western-European ruling elites, especially during the 'cold war', acting as their defender against Stalin's messianic expansion. About how all this happened, I wrote in my article " Europe Has Lost Out the 20th Century to the United States ". US tried to transfer this experience in the twenty-first century and to extend their domination in Eastern Europe. In this, I must say, they have succeeded. All the countries of Eastern and Central Europe were drawn into NATO, and the troops of this block were put forward right up to Russia's borders. In order to achieve this, United States deployed an unprecedented propagandistic war against Russia, presenting it as a dangerous aggressive power, which is alien to the 'European civilization' and its values, and threatens the existence of the European countries. In doing so they did not shun unconscionable lies and distortion of historical facts. How can we incriminate Russian intentions of the military invasion into Europe and encourage Europeans to unite under the leadership of the United States to counter this threat? Firstly, NATO's military might is greater than Russian one by 4 times or more. Secondly, Russia has never had intentions to invade Europe, while grandiose military invasion from Europe into Russia took place twice. In the 19th century the Napoleon's troops had invaded into it and reached Moscow itself, and in the 20th century Nazi Germany troops broke through as far as Stalingrad. And both times, Russian army was able to repel the aggression and was forced to invade deep into Europe while pursuing enemy troops, to achieve complete victory. That is the truth of history. American leaders of the information war against Russia prefer to remain silent about it. Or maybe it is simply because of their ignorance, lack of knowledge history that the US senior policymakers have repeatedly demonstrated? Whatever it was, Washington was able to put the EU ruling elites in service of itself and to achieve the implementation of one of the most important tasks of the US foreign policy doctrine 'to keep Russia out of Europe'. Fear of increasingly being adopted of the idea of the Eurasian Union, i.e. integration space from Lisbon to Vladivostok, was also the reason for this course of action. The implementation of this idea promises to European countries and Russia the big economic, political, scientific, technological and other benefits, including relief from the US dictate the political and economic sphere, which increasingly concerned about a nationally minded circles of the European countries. While for the US, the most important task is to implement the idea of Euro-Atlantic alliance, i.e. US-Europe association, which is regarded as the main geopolitical bridgehead of US policy of domination. Sake of this, many subversive activities aimed against Russia, are held: the creation of 'enemy image' in its face; policies aimed at its isolation and locking by unfriendly states; sanctions against Russia; a coup in Ukraine and its transformation into a state hostile to Russia, a hotbed for the unleashing the war in Europe; deployment of US troops and military equipment, as well as anti-missile systems in Eastern Europe and so on. As a result of these actions, the United States deliberately brought Europe to the threshold of pre-war political crisis. Thus, today's imperative is to not let rabid members of American expansionism to turn this crisis into a war. This scares even the reasonable and responsible representatives of the political and scientific communities in the United States (for example, the famous American historian and political scientist, Prof. Stephen Cohen, about what he was saying at the annual US-Russian Forum in Washington, June 16, 2014). In the current situation alarming and dangerous intensification of policies aimed at a return to the life of the Paris Charter and its principles, and their widespread publicity among the general public in Russia and the Western countries, is of paramount importance. Their official inclusion in the agenda of foreign policy of Russia and other European countries is the saving against threats hanging over Europe. It would be essential that the Federation Council and the State Duma addressed to the parliaments of European countries with appeal to put again The Charter of Paris and its principles in the service of peace and pan-European cooperation, taking into account the characteristics of contemporary European situation.
The intracontinental endorheic Aral Sea, remote from oceanic influences, represents an excellent sedimentary archive in Central Asia that can be used for high-resolution palaeoclimate studies. We performed palynological, microfacies and geochemical analyses on sediment cores retrieved from Chernyshov Bay, in the NW part of the modern Large Aral Sea. The most complete sedimentary sequence, whose total length is 11 m, covers approximately the past 2000 years of the late Holocene. High-resolution palynological analyses, conducted on both dinoflagellate cysts assemblages and pollen grains, evidenced prominent environmental change in the Aral Sea and in the catchment area. The diversity and the distribution of dinoflagellate cysts within the assemblages characterized the sequence of salinity and lake-level changes during the past 2000 years (Chapter III). Due to the strong dependence of the Aral Sea hydrology to inputs from its tributaries, the lake levels are ultimately linked to fluctuations in meltwater discharges during spring. As the amplitude of glacial meltwater inputs is largely controlled by temperature variations in the Tien Shan and Pamir Mountains during the melting season, salinity and lake-level changes of the Aral Sea reflect temperature fluctuations in the high catchment area during the past 2000 years. Dinoflagellate cyst assemblages document lake lowstands and hypersaline conditions during ca. 0–425 AD, 920–1230 AD, 1500 AD, 1600–1650 AD, 1800 AD and since the 1960s, whereas oligosaline conditions and higher lake levels prevailed during the intervening periods. Besides, reworked dinoflagellate cysts from Palaeogene and Neogene deposits happened to be a valuable proxy for extreme sheet-wash events, when precipitation is enhanced over the Aral Sea Basin as during 1230–1450 AD. We propose that the recorded environmental changes are related primarily to climate, but may have been possibly amplified during extreme conditions by human-controlled irrigation activities or military conflicts (Chapter VI). Additionally, salinity levels and variations in solar activity show striking similarities over the past millennium, as during 1000–1300 AD, 1450–1550 and 1600–1700 AD when low lake levels match well with an increase in solar activity thus suggesting that an increase in the net radiative forcing reinforced past Aral Sea's regressions. On the other hand, we used pollen analyses to quantify changes in moisture conditions in the Aral Sea Basin (Chapter IV). High-resolution reconstruction of precipitation (mean annual) and temperature (mean annual, coldest versus warmest month) parameters are performed using the "probability mutual climatic spheres" method, providing the sequence of climate change for the past 2000 years in western Central Asia. Cold and arid conditions prevailed during ca. 0–400 AD, 900–1150 AD and 1500–1650 AD with the extension of xeric vegetation dominated by steppe elements. Conversely, warmer and less arid conditions occurred during ca. 400–900 AD and 1150–1450 AD, where steppe vegetation was enriched in plants requiring moister conditions. Change in the precipitation pattern over the Aral Sea Basin is shown to be predominantly controlled by the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) cyclonic system, which provides humidity to the Middle East and western Central Asia during winter and early spring. As the EM is significantly regulated by pressure modulations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) when the system is in a negative phase, a relationship between humidity over western Central Asia and the NAO is proposed. Besides, laminated sediments record shifts in sedimentary processes during the late Holocene that reflect pronounced changes in taphonomic dynamics (Chapter V). In Central Asia, the frequency of dust storms occurring during spring when the continent is heating up is mostly controlled by the intensity and the position of the Siberian High (SH) Pressure System. Using titanium (Ti) content in laminated sediments as a proxy for aeolian detrital inputs, changes in wind dynamics over Central Asia is documented for the past 1500 years, offering the longest reconstruction of SH variability to date. Based on high Ti content, stronger wind dynamics are reported from 450–700 AD, 1210–1265 AD, 1350–1750 AD and 1800–1975 AD, reporting a stronger SH during spring. In contrast, lower Ti content from 1750–1800 AD and 1980–1985 AD reflect a diminished influence of the SH and a reduced atmospheric circulation. During 1180–1210 AD and 1265–1310 AD, considerably weakened atmospheric circulation is evidenced. As a whole, though climate dynamics controlled environmental changes and ultimately modulated changes in the western Central Asia's climate system, it is likely that changes in solar activity also had an impact by influencing to some extent the Aral Sea's hydrology balance and also regional temperature patterns in the past (Chapter VI). ; La Mer intracontinentale endoréique de l'Aral, éloignée de toute influence océanique, constitue en Asie Centrale une excellente archive sédimentaire pour des études paléoclimatiques à haute résolution. Nous avons effectué une analyse palynologique, sédimentologique et géochimique sur des carottages sédimentaires effectués dans la Baie de Chernyshov, située au nord-ouest de l'actuelle Grande Mer d'Aral. La séquence sédimentaire la plus complète mesure 11 m et représente les 2000 dernières années de l'Holocène terminal. L'étude palynologique, conduite conjointement sur des assemblages de kystes de dinoflagellés et de grains de pollen, a mis en évidence de profonds changements environnementaux en Mer d'Aral, ainsi que dans le bassin Aralien. Les variations d'assemblages de kystes de dinoflagellés (diversité, distribution des espèces) ont permis d'établir la séquence des variations de salinité et du niveau du lac au cours des 2000 dernières années (Chapitre III). En raison de l'étroite dépendence de l'hydrologie de la Mer d'Aral aux apports fluviaux de l'Amu Darya et de la Syr Darya, les variations de niveau du lac sont étroitement liées à l'apport d'eaux résultant de la fonte des neiges en altitude au printemps. Or, l'amplitude de ces apports étant principalement contrôlée par les variations de température printanières dans les massifs du Tien Shan et du Pamir au cours de la fonte, les variations de salinité et de niveau de la Mer d'Aral traduisent essentiellement des fluctuations de température dans le bassin versant au cours des 2000 dernières années. Ainsi, les assemblages de kystes de dinoflagellés caractérisent des épisodes de bas niveau de la Mer d'Aral accompagnés d'une forte augmentation de la salinité au cours des périodes 0–425, 900–1230, 1500, 1600–1650 et 1800 après J.C., ainsi qu'après les années 1960. Inversement, un retour vers des conditions de faible salinité associées à une hausse du niveau du lac est documenté pour les périodes intermédiaires. Par ailleurs, la présence de kystes de dinoflagellés remaniés des dépôts Paléogène et Néogène alentours caractérise des évènements de désagrégation intense des berges lors d'une hausse significative des précipitations sur le bassin Aralien, notamment au cours de la période 1230–1450 après J.C. Nous proposons que les changements environnementaux enregistrés sont principalement liés à des changements climatiques mais qu'ils ont également pu être amplifiés par l'homme lors de conditions extrêmes, via une irrigation non-maîtrisée et/ou des conflits militaires (Chapitre VI). En outre, les variations de salinité montrent de fortes similitudes avec celles de l'activité solaire au cours du dernier millénaire, notamment pour les périodes 1000–1300, 1450–1550 et 1600–1700 après J.C. où les périodes de bas niveau du lac correspondent à une activité solaire accrue, suggérant qu'une augmentation du bilan radiatif ait renforcé les régressions de la Mer d'Aral dans le passé. Parallèlement, le contenu du sédiment en grains de pollen a été analysé afin de mettre en évidence des changements environnementaux, et notamment des variations d'humidité dans le bassin Aralien au cours des 2000 dernières années (Chapitre IV). Une reconstruction quantitative à haute résolution du taux de précipitation (moyenne annuelle) et des températures (moyenne annuelle, mois le plus froid versus le plus chaud) a été réalisée à l'aide de la méthode dite de "probabilité des sphères climatiques mutuelles", permettant d'obtenir la séquence chronologique des changements climatiques en Asie Centrale. Un climat froid et aride domine au cours des périodes 0–400, 900–1150 et 1500–1650 après J.C., caractérisé par l'extension d'une végétation de type désertique avec des éléments de steppe. En revanche, un climat plus chaud et moins sec apparaît au cours des périodes 400–900 et 1150–1450 après J.C., caractérisé par une végétation steppique enrichie en plantes exigeant des conditions d'humidité plus élevées. Les variations de précipitation enregistrées dans le bassin Aralien au cours des 2000 dernières années sont principalement contrôlées par le système cyclonique de la Méditerranée Orientale qui fournit l'humidité nécessaire au Moyen Orient et en Asie Centrale à la transition hiver–printemps. Ce système cyclonique étant étroitement lié aux modulations de pression régulées par l'Oscillation de l'Atlantique Nord (NAO), une relation entre humidité en Asie Centrale et le NAO en phase négative est proposée. Enfin, les sédiments laminés des carottages étudiés ont enregistré des changements marqués de la sédimentation au cours de l'Holocène terminal qui révèlent des bouleversements importants de la dynamique d'apports du matériel sédimentaire (Chapitre V). En Asie Centrale, la fréquence des tempêtes de poussières s'intensifie au printemps lorsque le continent se réchauffe, et est ainsi principalement contrôlée par l'intensité et la position de l'anticyclone Sibérien sur le continent. Une analyse semi-quantitative du contenu du sédiment en Titanium, révélateur fiable d'apports détritiques d'origine éolienne, a permis d'établir la séquence chronologique des variations de la dynamique éolienne en Asie Centrale au cours des 1500 dernières années, représentant aussi la plus longue reconstruction dans le temps de l'intensité de l'anticyclone Sibérien établie jusqu'ici. Ainsi, une intensification de la dynamique éolienne est documentée pour les périodes 450–700, 1210–1265, 1350–1750 et 1800–1975 après J.C. En revanche, de faibles concentrations en Titanium (1750–1800 ; 1980–1985 après J.C.) caractérisent une réduction significative de l'intensité de l'anticyclone Sibérien et une circulation atmosphérique plus stable. Au cours des périodes 1180–1210 et 1265–1310 après J.C., une profonde modification de la circulation atmosphérique s'installe en Asie Centrale. En Mer d'Aral, elle se caractérise par une réduction considérable des apports détritiques éoliens. En définitive, si l'ensemble des intéractions entre différents systèmes climatiques ont contrôlé les changements environnementaux en Asie Centrale et modulé les variations climatiques au cours de l'Holocène terminal, il est probable que les variations de l'activité solaire aient eu un impact notable sur l'évolution du bilan hydrique de la Mer d'Aral au cours des 1000 dernières années (Chapitre VI).
