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Introduction: Modernity and Crisis -- Chapter One. German Philosophy between Scientism and Historicism -- The Legitimation Crisis in Post-Hegelian Philosophy -- The Cartesian Anxiety of Modern Philosophy -- The Cultural Crisis of the German Mandarinate -- Crisis-Consciousness and Cartesian Science -- Chapter Two. Wilhelm Windelband's Taxonomy of the Sciences -- The Neo-Kantian Turn to Questions of Historical Method -- Windelband's Definition of Philosophy as a Science of Values -- The Rectoral Address: "History and Natural Science" -- The European Classification of the Sciences (Plato to Mill) -- Windelband's Aporia: The Logical Problem of Method and the Metaphysical Problem of Freedom -- Chapter Three. Heinrich Rickert's Epistemology of Historical Science -- Rickert's Response to the Contemporary Philosophy of Crisis -- Philosophy as Wissenschaft contra Weltanschauung -- Rickert's Relationship to Kant's Transcendental Idealism -- The Methods of Natural Science and History -- Kulturwissenschaft and Naturwissenschaft -- Values and Objectivity in Historical Science -- Causality and Values: Rickert's Transcendental Philosophy and Friedrich Meinecke's Historicism -- Rickert's Response to the Problems of Historicism -- Rickert's Philosoophy of History -- Chapter Four. Wilhelm Dilthey's Critique of Historical Reason -- Dilthey's Project -- The Unity of the Introduction to the Human Sciences (1883) -- Dilthey's Relationship to Positivism, Idealism, and the Historical School -- The Kantian Fregestellung and Dilthey's "Critique of Historical Reason" -- Dilthey and the Philosophy of Crisis -- Dilthey's Concept of Erlebnis and Its Relation to the Human Sciences -- Historicity and Hermeneutics -- The Crisis of Historical Relativism -- The Antinomy of "Historical" Reason: The Historicity of Truth and the Demand for a Scientific Method -- Chapter Five. "The Time Is Out of Joint": The Young Heidegger's Destruktion of Historicism -- The Revolutionary Language of Theology: Karl Barth's "Epistle to the Romans" -- The Crisis of Faith -- The Situation of University Philosophy -- Heidegger's Practice of Destruktion -- Heidegger's Crisis and the Crisis of Western Thought -- Heidegger's Quarrel with Neo-Kantianism -- Greek Ontology and Christian Kairos: Heidegger's Destruktion of the Metaphysics of Presence -- Dilthey's Fragestellung and Heidegger's Question concerning the Meaning of History -- Historicity and History in Being and Time -- Historicity, Crisis and Decision: Heidegger's Retrieval of Nietzsche -- The Danger of Thinking in a "Time of Need."

Social sciences emerged at the onset of the Enlightenment age. Immanuel Kant proclaimed that henceforth the central theme of discourse in philosophy will be human beings and not God. Since then, the relationship between 'me' and 'the other' has become a central theme of intellectual endeavour. Now, me and other relationships have three forms: conflict, competition and cooperation or harmony. Three world views developed around these three patterns. The socialist worldview had conflict as a base, with equality as a cherished value. Competition is the base of liberalism, with freedom (to compete) as a cherished value. Harmony is at the base of humanism, with fraternity as a basic value. Today, liberalism and neo-liberalism have become almost unipolar world views. Liberalism claims to be following the three great values of the French Revolution: liberty, equality and fraternity. In recent times, neo-liberalism has developed a system that makes all three values truncated. Liberty, or freedom, has been reduced to the level of my choice as a consumer. Equality has been taken as reducing and abolishing old ascription-based inequality. The rising new and achievement-based inequality is not only not opposed but also eulogised in the name of creativity and achieving society. In place of fraternity and harmony, we have cutthroat competition. A competitive society is considered good. The market is more important now. We have achieved growth. But the basic harmony between human beings and between human beings and other elements of the environment has vanished. So, environmental issues, rising achievement-based inequalities, violation of human rights, rising poverty, failure of market institutions and unnatural lifestyles giving rise to many lifestyle diseases have made many thinkers and social scientists to change the value base of social sciences to restructure social sciences. The new value base could be ethics, equity (social equity, to be specific) and ecological harmony. Keeping these three values as the base, we will have to restructure social sciences to have a better and more humane world order.

Trace elements (Co, Cr, Mn, Mo, Ni, Rb, Th, U, and V) in surface soil of Al-Aslah (NH1), Nasiriyah refinery (NH2), Gharraf (NH3), and Tall Al-Laham (NH4) at Thi-Qar governorate, southeast Iraq, were studied. The study aims to detect their distribution and pollution levels to reduce the subtracted from industrial sources and avoid using contaminated areas for agricultural purposes before the soil treatment process. Inductivity Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) technique was used to determine the concentrations of these elements, and the results showed that there is a high concentration of Cr, Ni, Mo, and Mn in the soil of the study area, which exceeded the international levels compared with other elements (Co, Th, U, and V). The Geo accumulation index (I geo) values showed that the soil area was classified as low contamination in all sites and for all trace elements except for Mo, which is polluted in Al-Gharraf and strongly polluted in Tall Al-Laham. The values of the enrichment factor (EF) were indicated to be minimal enrichment of (Mn and V) in all sites and moderate enrichment of (Co) in all sites except in the Gharraf soil sample, which is considered as minimal enrichment. At the same time, it suffers from significant enrichment of (Cr) in all sites. The values of contamination factor (CF) showed extreme contamination of Cr and Ni in all sites due to the oil industry (Nasiriyah refinery), except for Ni in the Gharraf soil sample, which is considered as high contamination and moderately contamination with Co in all sites, and low contamination with Mn and V. The main cause of the increasing trace element concentrations in the study area that the samples located in industrial sites where trace elements are one of the waste products from fuel combustion from the oil fields and the waste of the brick factories near the study area, also the nature of the study area soil which is clay soil that absorb the trace elements on its surfaces.

"Today, like never before, humanity is developing a fear of self-destruction. After the development of atomic weapons, the current nuclear weapon, although considered a weapon of deterrence, threatens the world with an apocalypse from which it could not recover. Faced with this situation, after the second war, the ultimate question nagging people's minds is the following: what weapon would be used in the next war? As a result, saving humanity from the catastrophe that is looming on the horizon requires recourse to the founding values of good governance and the culture of peace. Despite the old European democracy and the emerging African democracies, we still wonder about the trajectories to take to combine peace in a world which, more and more, is heading towards its extinction. With the current Russian-Ukrainian conflicts, introducing a war at the doorstep of Europe, as well as the putsches recorded in Africa, with the establishment of military juntas, the case of Mali in 2020 and 2021, of Guinea in 2021, of Niger and Burkina Faso in 2022, of Gabon in 2023, also the increase in the authoritarian regime in the Democratic Republic of Congo, in Rwanda, without forgetting the establishment of the ghost state in the Central African Republic, etc. there is reason to question the idealistic and realistic aims of democratic values. History has made democracy not only a system of management of public affairs par excellence, but also a way of living and a way of being. Founded on the values of freedom and tolerance, democratization requires our appropriate resolution to expose a systematic method that can lead to the construction of a culture dedicated to dialogue and the peaceful management of conflicts. Democratization, through the combination of good governance and the culture of peace, constitutes a process which requires a method bringing together both a part linked to the form, relating to the political and institutional organization, and a part linked to the substance, relating to the behavior of political actors. Keywords : Democracy, liberalism, socialism, conflict management, good governance"

The paper discusses the results of a kinetic study of the thermal decomposition of MS-8P, TN-98, and TN-600 aviation oils under conditions of continuous heating at a constant rate of 5 K/min to a temperature of 1 073 K. An integral method was used to describe the reaction mechanism and determine the macrokinetic parameters. It has been established that, from a phenomenological point of view, the average reaction of aviation oils conversion under the experimental conditions corresponds to the reaction model described by the surface-limited reaction equation (MS-8P), the power law (TN-98) and the model described by the three-dimensional diffusion-limited reaction equation (TN-600). When dividing the averaged reaction into two reactions (the first is completed at a temperature of 550–600 K, the second at a temperature of 638–655 K), it is determined that the first reaction is described by the reaction equation of the 2nd order (MS-8P), the first order (TN-98) and the reaction equation of one-dimensional diffusion (TN-600), and the second the reaction equation of the first order (three types of oil). The activation energy of the first reaction was 99 kJ/mol (MS-8P), 145.6 kJ/mol (TN-98) and 57.4 kJ/mol (TN-600), the value of the pre-exponential factor was – 144 241 567 min–1 (MS-8P), 62 161 395 942 min–1 (TN-98) and 236.16 min–1 (TN600). The activation energy of the second reaction is 160 kJ/mol (MS-8P), 91.6 kJ/mol (TN-98) and 127.1 kJ/mol (TN-600), the pre-exponential factor is 8.81 ‧ 1011 min–1 (MS-8P), 1.26 ‧ 104 min–1 (TN-98) and 2.04 ‧ 108 min–1 (TN-600). It is shown that the use of these values of the activation energy and the pre-exponential factor leads to agreement between the calculated values of the degree of decomposition of the studied oil samples and the experimental ones in the range of values of the degree of decomposition from 0 to 1.

NAD(P)+
-dependent formate dehydrogenase (FDH, EC 1.2.1.2.) catalyzes the oxidation of formate ion with the coupled reduction of NAD(P)+
to
NAD(P)H. Previously, in our laboratory, a genetic construct was obtained with
the soyfdh2 gene encoding isoenzyme 2 of formate dehydrogenase from soybean
Glycine max (SoyFDH). In this construct the nucleotide sequence encoding the
signal peptide responsible for the transport of the pro-enzyme into the mitochondria of plant cells (the SoyFDH_L enzyme) was deleted. In this work, a second variant of SoyFDH_S was obtained, in which, compared to SoyFDH_L, the sequence
at the N-terminus was reduced and changed to mimic the N-terminus sequence in
FDH from Pseudomonas sp.101 bacteria. Next, a sequence of six histidine residues
(His-tag) was added to the N-terminus of the long and short forms of SoyFDH.
All four SoyFDH variants were expressed in E. coli BL21(DE3)CodonPlus, these
enzymes were purified, their kinetic parameters were determined, and thermal
stability was studied. In the case of SoyFDH_L, which is similar to the natural
variant of the enzyme, both with and without His-tag, the expression level is two
times higher compared to the truncated variant. The addition of His-tag to the
N-terminus of enzymes reduces the level of expression. Changing the sequence
of the N-terminus, as well as introducing the His-tag sequence to the N-terminus,
does not significantly affect thermal stability of the enzymes at temperatures of
50–56 °C. However, due to the higher values of the activation enthalpy ΔH≠
of the
thermal inactivation process, the shortened form at normal temperatures is 3 times
more stable than the natural one. A comparison of the kinetic parameters of the two SoyFDH variants shows that the catalytic constants are the same, but the long
version of SoyFDH_L has lower values KM
HCOO–
, and the short version has lower
KM
NAD+
values. The introduction of His-tag into the N-terminus of enzymes does not
affect their kinetic parameters.

There is a common assumption that the removal of civics from the curriculum between 1995 and 2002, when Malawi became a democracy might have deformed citizenship and civic education (CE). This narrative assumes that civics, as a discipline, was critical for instilling democratic and civic values among Malawians. This then prompted the Tonse Alliance Government (TAG) to change the Ministry of Civic Education and Culture (MoCC) to the Ministry of Civic Education and National Unity (MoCENU) as the first step. Additionally, the then Minister of MoCENU proposed a policy change to reintroduce civics in schools arguing that, it is only through this subject that democratic citizenship can be realized. Accordingly, this paper sought to argue that mere changing of MoCC to MoCENU, and reintroducing civics in schools may add nothing toward the creation of democratic citizenship when we consider global trends. This paper therefore utilized qualitative research design especially Critical Hermeneutics to analyze available literature on citizenship and CE trends, its conceptions and common issues around the globe. In doing so, the paper sought to explain whether Malawi's CE projects have been on the right trajectory or not, and how power-relations and political interests have shaped its development. Mainly, we ascribed to the epigram that, straightening a tree is better done in its sapling. In other words, the best spaces for behavior change and habit formation remain the schools because they are naturally designed to prepare children for such roles and functions. While our arguments might not be final, we still understand that many researches have held a fragmented view of citizenship and CE. We thus sought to analyze these two concepts in the lenses of Critical Pedagogy as suggested by Paulo Freire and Henry Giroux who understood schools as political spaces where the hegemony captures the curriculum to oppress society while protecting their interests. By advocating for a democratic model of education anchored in humanization, problem-posing, and critical conscientization, Critical Pedagogy molds students into future citizens who values critical thinking, transparency and democratic values.

The article aims to reveal particularities of cancel culture in politics and international relations using methods of sociology and conflict theory. Deriving from previous research of cancel culture, authors define cancel culture as non-institutionalized form of social control that is implemented through mass mobilization in social media. After informal pressure the formal punishment could follow against those who break norms or behavior expectations. As a kind of social control cancel culture could contribute to overcoming gap between manifested values and social practices, preserving social order and fighting elitism and inequality. At the same time cancel culture could be used as instrument of unfair competition, political struggle and suppression of opinions. Comparison of cancel culture cases in the USA, United Kingdom and Russia allows to conclude that the scale and effectiveness of collective actions depend on national context, different systems of norms and values and cultural practices to react on violation of values and norms.In politics and international relations cancel culture manifests as an addition to actions of formal political institutions, and it aims to undermine authority and reputation of a politician. It is important that in politics and international relations cancel culture is an instrument of informal control, which follows formal sanctions. Conclusions about the nature of cancel culture as an instrument of politics helps to understand better its functions in regard to attempts to "cancel" Russia. Cancel culture adds to formal sanctions and aims to isolate the country, to undermine its legitimacy as international actor. In regard to Russia the efforts are made to "cancel" it on two levels: formal – by sanctions and informal – via rejection to cooperate coming from various professional communities. In both cases countries and respective communities have their own understanding of norms and acceptable means and tools, and thus cancel culture becomes a toll of collective punishment. International relations lack universal understanding of norms and single center of political power, so that causes selective usage of instruments to impact, and thus cancel culture becomes an instrument of political struggle.

The joint dynamics of the Black Sea phytoplankton parameters (primary production, specific growth rate, biomass) and the amount of precipitation over the period from 1998 to 2015 was studied in coastal areas and the open coast of the northern part of the Black Sea. The analysis used satellite data (SG) (GPCPMON) GPCP Version 3.2, TRMM TMPA (3B42RT), as well as SeaWiFS from 1998 to 2010, MODIS-Aqua from 2002 to 2015 and MODIS-Terra from 2000 to 2015. Phytoplankton indicators were calculated according to 46 КОВАЛЕВА, СУСЛИН LOMONOSOV GEOGRAPHY JOURNAL. 2023. VOL. 78. NO. 4 the models developed earlier by the authors. The average monthly values of all considered values were evaluated, as well as bi-weekly and daily values for atmospheric precipitation. As a result of the study, it was revealed that the role of atmospheric precipitation for the variability of phytoplankton characteristics is not significant in vast water areas over long time intervals, and it could be neglected. In some cases in the presence of large rivers and coastal runoff it increases up to 30% in the offshore areas. There was also a more noticeable effect of atmospheric precipitation on the biological productivity of phytoplankton in small, limited water areas over short time intervals. According to our data during the 18-year period there was a more noticeable correlation between the specific growth rate and precipitation in winter than in other seasons for the open coast of the Black Sea. The correlation of biomass and primary production with atmospheric precipitation is less pronounced. The specific growth rate correlated more than other studied phytoplankton indicators with the amount of precipitation. In three districts, an increase in the amount of precipitation relative to the previous level with monthly averages above 0,6 mm/day led to an increase in the specific growth rate, or maintained it at the same level. The increase in the specific growth rate was not the same everywhere and was not proportional to the amount of atmospheric precipitation. This indicates the influence of many factors on phytoplankton characteristics; however, precipitation could have an additional stimulating role.

The purpose of this work is to identify the features of mass consciousness in the aspect of traditionalism, which allows us to draw analogies of the content of mass consciousness of various historical periods. Mass consciousness is interpreted as one of the essential factors infl uencing the preservation of the manifestations of
traditionalism. The connection between the consciousness of the masses of traditional society and the society of the present time is noted not as a paradox, but as a regularity. The history of people is an activity aimed at adapting to social reality, to the specifi cs of social existence. In this provision, something fundamental is noted not only
in the approach to any historical epoch, but also in the approach to the study of the activity of the carrier of mass consciousness in any historical epoch. Functional aspects (inherited ideological and thinking schemes) of mass consciousness are clarifi ed and concretized taking into account the social context. The mass consciousness of both
traditional and modern society orients and directs people within the boundaries of their individual and group actions, reproducing traditional (archaic) norms, values, attitudes and at the same time producing potential changes in society. These are the reference ways of thinking, perception and reaction, transmitted from generation to generation
with the help of signs, symbols, myths, stereotypes. These include: the customs of everyday life; the Absolutization of Good and Evil; the syncretism of the triad individual — society — culture; the division of the world into permissible and forbidden; the preservation of the image of the motherland (home) unchanged; ideas about truth — truth and justice. Such constants of mass consciousness ensure not only adaptation to the system of norms and values accepted in a given society, but also the preservation of this system without entering into a confl ict relationship with it to develop new norms and values corresponding to changing conditions and circumstances. In conclusion,
methodological principles are recommended that can be used in the study of mass consciousness at any stage of the development of society.

The results of the study of the heating process of wet capillary-porous bodies of various compositions (meat products) during heat treatment in dry air and steam-air mixture under conditions of forced circulation of the heating medium are presented. The studies were carried out on a moist fat-free sample (chicken fillet meat) and a low-moisture fat sample (pork shoulder blade) formed in the form of a cylinder and a plate. It is shown that the process of heating of meat products of various compositions obeys the laws of the theory of unsteady thermal conductivity of homogeneous bodies, despite the variety of accompanying phase and physico-chemical transformations. It is established that the regular mode of non-stationary thermal conductivity occurs at Fo ≥ 0.2 for all the studied variants. Based on the processing and analysis of experimental data, criterion equations of the form Θ = f(Fo,Bi) for the central layer of the studied products in the temperature range 160–240 °C were obtained. It has been established that the peculiarities of heating of meat products in a vapor-air mixture environment lead to lower values of the coefficients μ1 and N(Bi) at regular operation compared with heating in dry air. It was found that low-moisture fatty samples are characterized by lower values of μ1 and N(Bi) in comparison with moist fat-free ones. As a result of comparison with tabular data for solids, it is shown that the experimental coefficients μ1 and N(Bi) are characterized by lower values for all the studied variants. It is established that the nature of the change in N(Bi) and μ1 for solids and the studied products is opposite, i.e., with an increase in the number of Bi, an increase in N(Bi) and μ1 is characteristic for solids, while their decrease is characteristic for the studied products. The practical significance of the research consists in improving the quality characteristics of minced meat products and optimizing operational production planning through the use of the methodology of predictive calculation of the duration of thermal operations.

The plan to move the capital city of the Republic of Indonesia (RI) from DKI Jakarta Province to East Kalimantan Province sparks pros and cons. Various comments appeared on social media. This study aims to: (1) find out the issues carried in the #IKNNusantara hashtag network; (2) categorize comments into negative, positive, and neutral sentiment categories; (3) find the structure and relationships of the actors in the network. The research methodology is quantitative research approach, the SNA (Social Network Analysis) method using NodeXL software and Sentiment Analysis using the online application Brand24.com on the hashtag #IKNNusantara on Twitter. The results of sentiment analysis show that the conversation is dominated by neutral sentiment. The total number of tweets up to February 16, 2022, was 255. SNA results show that the network density between actors in #IKNNusantara is still low at 0.23 percent. The network diameter describes the network pattern spreads and the cohesiveness between actors is low. The most influential actors based on the value of centrality are the accounts @jokowi and @ir with the highest in-degree values, which shows that a lot of talks are directed to this account. Accounts @d_n4bil5 and @newiding30 who have the highest out-degree are the most active in disseminating information. The @jokowi and @d_n4bil5 accounts serve as bridges because they have the highest betweenness value. Accounts @doddyjasmar and @royadam_lubis have the highest closeness values. Furthermore, the @d_n4bil5 and @langonlegend accounts with the highest eigenvector values are the actors with the most links to other actors. With this result, the government needs to continue to monitor the issue continuously and build awareness among netizens and the Indonesian people in general about the importance of IKN development. The use of social media focusing on delivering messages through the 7 (seven) most influential accounts above can have a significant impact. In terms of issue management, the government also needs to consider the most appropriate strategies to respond to issues according to the type of issue and the government's position on the issue.

AbstractDifferent species of microorganisms colonize the plastic surfaces and form biofilms depending on the aquatic environment. In the current investigation, characteristics of the plastic surface after exposure to three different aquatic environments based on visualization using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and spectroscopic (diffuse reflectance (DR) and infrared (IR)) techniques were examined in laboratory bioreactors with time. For both materials, there were no differences observed in the ultraviolet (UV) region among the reactors and several peaks were observed with fluctuating intensities and without any trends. For light density polyethylene (LDPE), peaks indicating the presence of biofilm could be observed in the visible region for activated sludge bioreactor, and for polyethylene terephthalate (PET), freshwater algae biofilm was also visible. PET in freshwater bioreactor is the most densely populated sample both under the optical microscope and SEM. Based on the DR spectra, different visible peaks for LDPE and PET were observed but, in both cases, the visible region peaks (~ 450 and 670 nm) correspond to the peaks found in the water samples of the bioreactors. The difference on these surfaces could not be identified with IR but the fluctuations observed in the UV wavelength region were also detectable using indices obtained from the IR spectra such as keto, ester, and vinyl. For instance, the virgin PET sample shows higher values in all the indices than the virgin LDPE sample [(virgin LDPE: ester Index (I) = 0.051, keto I = 0.039, vinyl I = 0.067), (virgin PET: ester I = 3.5, keto I = 19, vinyl I = 0.18)]. This suggests that virgin PET surface is hydrophilic as expected. At the same time, for all the LDPE samples, all the indices demonstrated higher values (especially for R2) than the virgin LDPE. On the other hand, ester and keto indices for PET samples demonstrated lower values than virgin PET. In addition, DRS technique was able to identify the formation of the biofilm both on wet and dry samples. Both DRS and IR can describe changes in the hydrophobicity during the initial formation of biofilm but DRS can better describe the fluctuations of biofilm in the visible spectra region.

A review and application of Degenerations of Democracy, by Craig Calhoun, Dilip Parameshwar Gaonkar, and Charles Taylor (hereafter, CGT); Liberalism and Its Discontents, by Francis Fukuyama; and How Democracies Live, by Stein Ringen. A strengthened liberal democratic culture is essential for the health and vitality of democracy. This culture is made up of three components: a cluster of liberal values (rule of law, freedom, equality, and reason), a democratic governing system grounded in popular sovereignty, and a collective experience of shared respect for liberal values and democratic institutions. Has this culture lost its strength? Is the collective experience and belief in democratic legitimacy disappearing? Are liberal values increasingly contested? All of the theorists under review address these questions. And for all, the answer is "yes, but…." They make strikingly similar arguments about the sources of this culture's strength, the causes of its current weakness, and how it can be strengthened. The general thrust of these books is this: a strong liberal democracy rests on three cultural foundations: the strength of social bonds, the level of deliberative civil discourse, and the level of economic equality. The main challenge to this threefold foundation's strength is neoliberalism, which all authors agree has led to liberal democracy's decline. I draw on this argument as a guide to assess the strength of liberal democracy in a small population living in rural Alpine County, California. I find that although it is relatively small and isolated, the drivers of democratic decline have found their way into this tiny community. Some aspects of liberal democratic culture have remained strong (voter turnout and volunteerism are high, and many citizens serve in elected office and on government committees); others, however, have weak roots that were never cultivated and continue to weaken further (equality, inclusion, open debate). Finally, I suggest that to strengthen liberal democracy, citizens must participate in it and leaders must work for the good of the entire community, not just the few.

Abstract. We present a transparent and validated
climate-conditioned catastrophe flood model for the UK, that simulates
pluvial, fluvial and coastal flood risks at 1 arcsec spatial resolution
(∼ 20–25 m). Hazard layers for 10 different return periods
are produced over the whole UK for historic, 2020, 2030, 2050 and 2070
conditions using the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) climate simulations. From these, monetary losses
are computed for five specific global warming levels above pre-industrial
values (0.6, 1.1, 1.8, 2.5 and 3.3 ∘C). The analysis contains a
greater level of detail and nuance compared to previous work, and represents
our current best understanding of the UK's changing flood risk landscape.
Validation against historical national return period flood maps yielded
critical success index values of 0.65 and 0.76 for England and Wales,
respectively, and maximum water levels for the Carlisle 2005 flood were
replicated to a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.41 m without calibration. This level of skill is similar to local modelling with site-specific data. Expected annual damage in 2020 was GBP 730 million, which compares favourably to the observed
value of GBP 714 million reported by the Association of British Insurers. Previous UK flood loss estimates based on government data are
∼ 3× higher, and lie well outside our modelled loss
distribution, which is plausibly centred on the observations. We estimate
that UK 1 % annual probability flood losses were ∼ 6 %
greater for the average climate conditions of 2020 (∼ 1.1 ∘C of warming) compared to those of 1990 (∼ 0.6 ∘C of warming), and this increase can be kept to around
∼ 8 % if all countries' COP26 2030 carbon emission reduction
pledges and "net zero" commitments are implemented in full. Implementing
only the COP26 pledges increases UK 1 % annual probability flood losses by 23 % above average 1990 values, and potentially 37 % in a "worst case" scenario where carbon reduction targets are missed and climate sensitivity
is high.