Suchergebnisse

Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan's GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government's cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan's annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; G Cross-cutting gender theme; Capacity Strengthening; Pakistan Agricultural Capacity Enhancement Program (PACE); CRP2 ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

The Government's policy measures such as travel restrictions, lockdowns, and restrictions on economic and social activities, aimed at curbing the spread of COVID-19, had affected the livelihoods and food security of smallholders in Nigeria. Using data collected from sample households from four Nigerian states, this study investigated the effects of COVID-19 pandemic policies on the incomes, employment, and food security situation of smallholder farming households. Results show that 88 percent of the households reported that they lost about 50 percent of their income due to the pandemic. As a result, about 66 percent of respondents reported they reduced food consumption. Travel and movement restrictions caused disruptions in agricultural activities and supply chains, as 29 percent of respondents reported planting fewer crops, 24 percent reduced cropping area, and 24 percent reduced fertilizer application. In terms of household's food security, results show that COVID-19 significantly worsened the food security situation of many households in Nigeria, especially poorer households. More than 80 percent of respondents worried about not having enough food and 77 percent ate less food than they thought they should. Survey households also reported a significant reduction of consumption of proteins (eggs, meat, and dairy products) and fruits since the pandemic struck. Increases in food prices are felt by most households (85 percent). We suggest three key policy priorities: support vulnerable households to mitigate the impacts of income loss through cash transfer or improved credit access; interventions to improve agricultural inputs supply chains to ease the pandemic's impact on agricultural production; and support food insecure households through direct food distribution. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; Feed the Future Nigeria Agricultural Policy Project; CRP2; DCA; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; G Cross-cutting gender theme; Capacity Strengthening; NSSP ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan's GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government's cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan's annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; PSSP; Pakistan Agricultural Capacity Enhancement Program (PACE); CRP2; Capacity Strengthening; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; COVID-19 Measuring Impacts and Prioritizing Policies for Recovery ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

An additional USD 10 billion is urgently needed to prevent millions more people from becoming food insecure as a result of COVID-19. USD 5 billion of this must come from donor governments as aid, with the rest provided by developing countries themselves. Without funding for social protection programs providing food or money to people in developing countries, decades of progress in tackling hunger could be wiped out by the end of this year, with longstanding consequences. ; IFPRI5; Ceres2030; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all ; MTID ; Non-PR

As COVID-19 began spreading globally in early 2020, it quickly went beyond major cities to affect rural areas in much of the world. In low-income countries, rural health systems have been overloaded and periodic lockdowns and other restrictions have driven down incomes. Governments have responded to the economic turmoil with an array of social protection programs, and through public health campaigns pushing both safe behaviors and vaccination and providing treatment. As our 2019 IFPRI Policy Brief shows, ensuring high-quality governance and provision of services in rural areas is critical for livelihoods and economic development — and thus central to COVID-19 policy responses. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI4; CRP4; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance ; DSGD; DGO; A4NH ; CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH)

Many governments imposed stringent lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic as a public health measure to suppress the spread of the disease. With consumer incomes already depressed, the potential impacts of these measures on urban food prices are of particular concern. This working paper examines the changes in Myanmar's urban food prices during lockdown using detailed food price data collected from a panel of phone surveys conducted in August and September 2020 of 431 family-owned retail shops in Myanmar's two largest cities, Yangon and Mandalay. We find that the supply side of Myanmar's food retail sector was largely resilient to the shocks and lockdowns throughout the first six months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimates from a fixed effects differencein-differences model reveal that food prices were 3 percent higher in townships under lockdown compared to those not under lockdown, a statistically significant but modest effect. Lockdowns had smaller effects on prices for highly processed food items sourced directly from companies, but larger effects on prices for raw or lightly processed commodities sourced through wholesale markets, which comprise a larger share of urban consumer's diets. Retailer margins did not change significantly under lockdown restrictions, suggesting no evidence of price gouging. Overall, our findings of a modest impact of the lockdown on urban food prices underscore the importance of keeping the food supply chain–including wholesale markets and retail shops–functioning as completely and as safely as possible during times of crisis, as was mostly the case early in the crisis for the two cities in this study. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; MyanmarSSP; CRP2; MAPSA; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted governments across the world to introduce unprecedented lockdowns and other restrictions on mobility to slow the spread of coronavirus and to avoid overwhelming healthcare systems. While often necessary, these measures have led to well-documented disruptions in economic activity (World Bank 2020e). Consequently, many experts and international organizations have raised serious concerns about increased poverty and threats to food and nutrition security (Headey and Ruel 2020; Laborde et al. 2020; Laborde, Martin, and Vos 2020; Torero 2020). In April 2020, the World Food Programme warned that the number of acutely food insecure people in the world could double by the end of 2020 without concerted action (WFP 2020). ; PR ; IFPRI4; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; Feed the Future Initiative; ReSAKSS; CRP2 ; AFR; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

Due to the global pandemic generated by the COVID-19 the government of Honduras declared "state of emergency" in Feburay ("Estado de Emergencia en el Territorio Nacional a través del Decreto Ejecutivo Número PCM- 005-2020, 10 de febrero 2020). The country suffered the first confirmed COVID-19 case on March 12th, 2020. The first death was registered on March 26th. This short note covers the following topics until the time of this report. First, it shows the evolution of the pandemic, using different indicators. Second, it summarizes the main policy responses and costs and financing implied. Third, it shows some actual impacts with available data. Fourth, the modeling framework for the simulations is briefly presented. Fifth, it simulates different scenarios for the evolution of the Honduras' economy until year 2022. A final section discusses some preliminary policy considerations. Subsequent reports will update the information of this document and sharpen de policy conclusions. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; COVID-19 Measuring Impacts and Prioritizing Policies for Recovery ; LAC; MTID

The food relief program can also be used as a medium to communicate key messages about the epidemic, including on social distancing and other public health and safety measures. COVID-19 may be with us for a year or more; India's relief package is only the beginning. Going forward, the government needs a contingency plan focusing on how much, and for what length of time, the food system can continue to supply the social safety net in its current configuration. The lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions depend on it. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI4; CRP4 ; A4NH ; CGIAR Research Programs on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH)

Globally, countries have resorted to social distancing, travel restrictions and economic lockdowns to reduce transmission of COVID-19. The socioeconomic costs of these blunt measures are expected to be high, especially in sub-Saharan Africa where many live hand-to-mouth and lack social safety nets. Social Accounting Matrix multiplier model results show that Ghana's urban lockdown, although in force for only three weeks in April 2020, has likely caused GDP to fall by 27.9% during that period, while an additional 3.8 million Ghanaians temporarily became poor. Compared to the government's revised GDP growth rate of 1.5% for 2020, the model predicts a contraction of 0.6 to 6.3% for 2020, depending on the speed of the recovery. The US$200 million budgeted for Ghana's Coronavirus Alleviation Program will close only a small part of the estimated US$ 2.3 billion GDP gap between the fast recovery scenario and government's revised GDP trajectory. ; PR ; IFPRI3; ISI; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; GSSP; CRP2; COVID-19 Measuring Impacts and Prioritizing Policies for Recovery ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

Nearly one-quarter of the global population lives in fragile states. Yet, despite the enormous importance of these areas for reducing global poverty and food insecurity, there is relatively little research examining how agricultural value chains, crucial for assuring food security, respond and adapt to such contexts. This paper analyzes Myanmar's rice value chain–its most important staple crop and largest value chain–during the economic collapse and political instability caused by a military coup in early 2021. It relies on unique data collected with a large sample of rice retailers and millers before and after the coup. Despite many challenges in the rice value chain after the coup, such as banking and transport, rice processing and trade continued, assuring availability of rice in most retail markets and illustrating the resilience of the value chain to a major shock. While processing margins were mostly stable, an increased distribution margin (between rice millers and retailers) led to 11 percent higher average retail prices after the coup, implying welfare costs of almost USD 500 million. Using a market-pair regression method, we find that localized violence near sellers and buyers, distances traveled, and distance of vendors from international borders are associated with significantly increased rice price dispersion between rice retailers and mills. Despite the amalgam of problems to address in such settings, prioritizing the easing of transport restrictions, stabilizing fuel prices, and facilitating safe spatial arbitrage of food products would likely help prevent further food price inflation, assure higher farm prices, and improve welfare. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; MyanmarSSP; MAPSA; CRP2; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies ; DSGD; PIM ; CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)