Suchergebnisse

Since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, East Asia has implemented a number of initiatives designed to strengthen monetary and financial cooperation, bolstering the region's resilience to economic and financial vulnerabilities. One such initiative is the ASEAN+3 Information Exchange and Policy Dialogue, which includes development of early warning systems (EWS) for financial crises. This book examines efforts to develop EWS models. Specifically, the book analyzes the current understanding of the causes of currency and banking crises, describes recent progress in developing and applying EWS models for currency and banking crises, reviews methodolgical issues, assesses the predictive power of EWS models and also highlights areas where further research is required to make these models more effective tools for policy analysis. The case studies apply both parametric and nonparametric approaches to EWS modleing using data from six East Asian countries.

Abstract. This paper focuses on the use of community-based early warning systems for flood resilience in Nepal. The first part of the work outlines the evolution and current status of these community-based systems, highlighting the limited lead times currently available for early warning. The second part of the paper focuses on the development of a robust operational flood forecasting methodology for use by the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) to enhance early warning lead times. The methodology uses data-based physically interpretable time series models and data assimilation to generate probabilistic forecasts, which are presented in a simple visual tool. The approach is designed to work in situations of limited data availability with an emphasis on sustainability and appropriate technology. The successful application of the forecast methodology to the flood-prone Karnali River basin in western Nepal is outlined, increasing lead times from 2–3 to 7–8 h. The challenges faced in communicating probabilistic forecasts to the last mile of the existing community-based early warning systems across Nepal is discussed. The paper concludes with an assessment of the applicability of this approach in basins and countries beyond Karnali and Nepal and an overview of key lessons learnt from this initiative.

Abstract. This paper investigates the feasibility of Tsunami Early Warning Systems for small volcanic islands focusing on warning of waves generated by landslides at the coast of the island itself. The critical concern is if there is enough time to spread the alarm once the system has recognized that a tsunami has been generated. We use the results of a large scale physical model experiment in order to estimate the time that tsunamis take to travel around the island inundating the coast. We discuss how and where it is convenient to place instruments for the measurement of the waves.

Abstract. Early warning systems (EWSs) are increasingly applied as preventive measures within an integrated risk management approach for natural hazards. At present, common standards and detailed guidelines for the evaluation of their effectiveness are lacking. To support decision-makers in the identification of optimal risk mitigation measures, a three-step framework approach for the evaluation of EWSs is presented. The effectiveness is calculated in function of the technical and the inherent reliability of the EWS. The framework is applicable to automated and non-automated EWSs and combinations thereof. To address the specifics and needs of a wide variety of EWS designs, a classification of EWSs is provided, which focuses on the degree of automations encountered in varying EWSs. The framework and its implementation are illustrated through a series of example applications of EWS in an alpine environment.

The failure of the Chilean tsunami warning system on the night of 27 February, 2010, opens up the question of the ontological politics of inquiry processes at the two national centres of recognition and civic protection involved. Focusing on approximately two hours of intense activity and communication, I identify three critical features of how non-human phenomena are enacted by these agencies and show how these features shaped the process of misrecognizing the ongoing tsunami. They involved, first, the problem of information and the tension between local and global assessments; second, the problem of interpretation and the tension between scientific evidence and political intervention; and, third, the problem of conclusions and the tension between certainty and uncertainty. The ensuing public and legal controversy about responsible actors of this fatal failure also offers an opportunity to reflect upon the precautionary principle as a model for action in uncertain situations. I suggest here that the failure of the tsunami warning system reveals the need of associating precaution to a cosmopolitical duty of recognition of non-human entities and forces.

In this paper we propose that a crisis can be avoided by taking countermeasures, which are informed by an Early Warning System. An Early Warning System can help lessen the impact of crisis episodes and provide a systematic approach to the response of small business owners to challenges in their business environment. Following a review of the literature, we undertook data collection in two stages. In stage one, focus groups were conducted with small business owners in four European countries. In stage two we worked with an expert panel to refine and develop a set of indicators for an Early Warning System. It is envisaged that the set of indicators will serve as the basis for further thought and empiricism. We argue that a delay in crisis recognition curtails the scope and time for corrective action.