Suchergebnisse

The 2014 presidential elections in Egypt were an exercise in giving electoral legitimacy to el-Sisi who had removed Morsi in July 2013 to take control of an increasingly unstable Egypt. It also proved that Egypt's tryst with democracy was short-lived and that the military continues to control its destiny. Except for the new constitution and the electoral laws, nothing in the run up to the elections could arouse confidence in the process. It was marked with curbs on media and civil society, under-representation of women, lack of clarity in the electoral procedures, and interference of state, security apparatus and business interests in favor of el-Sisi. Though voting and counting were termed free and fair by international observers, serious questions about the transparency of the electoral process were raised from many quarters. The continued crackdown on Muslim Brotherhood and local and international media, lack of opposition, and disqualification and withdrawal of all formidable opponent candidates undermined the process and took back Egypt to the pre-Tahrir Square years.

Phrases like "watershed," "historic," and "epochal" were used to describe India's 2014 general election. The Bharatiya Janata Party secured the first single-party majority in three decades, forming the government as the National Democratic Alliance. We argue that the 16th Lok Sabha elections marked a realignment, not a clean break with the past.

The election of the 12th President of Turkey was remarkably different than the elections of the previous 11. For the first time in the history of the Republic, the head of the state was directly elected by ordinary people rather than chosen by their representatives in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (Turkiye Buyuk Millet Meclisi). On 10 August 2014, the incumbent Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan won a simple majority of votes in the first round of the election and became the president for the next five years. [Copyright Elsevier Ltd.]

General elections are held every five years in South Africa. During the 12 to 24 hour period after the close of the voting booths, the expected final results are of huge interest to the electorate and politicians. In the past, the Council for Scientic and Industrial Research (CSIR) has developed an election forecasting model in order to provide the media and political analysts with forecasts of the final results during this period of peak interest. In formulating this model, which forecasts the election results as the results from voting districts (VDs) become available, some assumptions had to be made. In particular, assumptions were made about the clustering of previous voting patterns as well as the order in which VD results are released.This election forecasting model had been used successfully for a number of elections in the past and in these previous elections, with around 5%{10% of the results available, the predictions produced by the model were very close to the final outcome, particularly for the ANC, being the largest party. For the 2014 national election, however, the predictions, with close to 50% of the voting district results known (equivalent to an estimated 40% of the total votes), were still not accurate and varied by more than 1% for both the ANC and the EFF. This paper outlines a post-election analysis to determine the reasons for these discrepancies and how they relate directly to the model assumptions. The aim is to highlight how practical realities can affect the assumptions and consequently their impact on the forecasted results. Reference is made to previous election forecasts and the 2014 post-election analysis is presented.Keywords: Forecasting, elections, assumptions, post-election analysis

General Elections are the embodiments of the mandate stipulated in the 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia Article 1 paragraph (2) which affirms that "sovereignty is in the hands of the people and carried out according to the Constitution". The Formulation Document that will be formulated in the research are: (1) What is the violation in the general election? And (2) What is law enforcement in general election. The method used in this study is normative legal research, normative legal research methods or library law research methods are methods or procedures that are used in legal research by examining existing library material. Election violations constitute acts prohibited by the Election Law against election organizers resulting in the imposition of sanctions for violations. The enactment of Law Number 7 Year 2017 on General Elections provides for different types of violations, disputes, criminal offenses and electoral disputes. The crime of elections is a criminal offense punishable by a particular punishment based on the criminal justice system. The purpose of election is to carry out popular sovereignty and the realization of the political rights of the people to produce leaders who will occupy important positions in the government.

The first direct presidential election in Turkey is remarkable because of the thin margin with which Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was elected against the expectations of a massive support. It marks beginning of a new era in Turkish politics indicating widespread discontentment and fear regarding the policies of the Justice and Development Party (AKP). On the other hand, the ruling party has retained its support among conservatives, business, and middle classes, especially in Anatolia region. However, the rise of new political forces in the 2015 general elections that failed to give a clear majority to any group should force the AKP to rethink over its policies, particularly the rising concern of authoritarian behavior and appropriation of power. Further, concerns over crackdown of media and dissent and growing instances of violation of human rights may lead to a backlash from the electorate. The AKP government has also come in from criticism for its handling of the Syrian crisis and its action against Syrian Kurds may turn the fragile peace achieved with its own Kurdish population.