Suchergebnisse

A problem in policymaking for prevention of harm to persons and the environment concerns the probability of harm occurring—that is, the measure of risk involved. Policymakers have almost always sought to calculate the risk involved in proposed courses of action. Their methods have often been irrational and their estimates erroneous. Explicit analysis of risk to society and systematic methods for estimating it emerged with the advent of science as more reliable procedures for prediction and decision‐making. However, as with many other forms of analysis, the assessment of risk has carried its own risk—namely an undue reliance on logical quantitative techniques which fail to address the root causes of public concern and apprehension. Common‐sense assessments of risk tell us more what risks people regard as acceptable and risks arouse anxiety and protest. Carnage from accidents on the nation's highways arouse much less apprehension than nuclear accidents even though actual risk from automobiles is much greater than injury or death from nuclear reactors. The following paper makes the case that the art and science of risk assessment will fall short of social and political realities until the psychological and cultural aspects of risk receive more adequate attention.

Introduction, L.W. Barnthouse, W.R. Munns, Jr., and M.T. SorensenTHE MANAGEMENT-SCIENCE INTERFACEManaging Risk to Ecologic Populations, G.R. Biddinger, P. Calow, P. Delorme, G. Harris, B. Hope, B.L. Lin, M. Sorensen, and P. van den Brink Population Protection Goals, C. Menzie, N. Bettinger, A. Fritz, L. Kapustka, H. Regan, V. Møller, and H. NoelSCIENTIFIC ISSUES IN POPULATION-LEVEL ECOLOGIC RISK ASSESSMENTDensity Dependence in Ecologic Risk Assessment, S.J. MoeGenetic Variation in Population-Level Ecologic Risk Assessment, D. Nacci and A. HoffmanThe Spatial Structure of Populations and Ecologic Risk Assessment, W.G. Landis, and A. Deines What Conservation Biology and Natural Resource Management Can Offer Population-Level Ecologic Risk Assessment, J.A. Gervais and H.M. ReganAPPROACHES TO POPULATION-LEVEL ECOLOGIC RISK ASSESSMENTEmpiric Approaches to Population-Level Ecologic Risk Assessment, T.M. Carlsen, P.F. Chapman, S. Brassfield, N. Elmegaard, A. Hoffman, W. Landis, S. J. Moe, D. Nacci, H.M. Noel, and J. Spromburg Modeling Approaches to Population-Level Ecologic Risk Assessment, W.R. Munns, Jr., J.A. Gervais, A.A. Hoffman, U. Hommen, D.E. Nacci, M. Nakamaru, R. Sibly, and C.J. Topping A Framework for Population-Level ERA, R. Wentsel, N. Beyer, V. Forbes, S. Maund, and R. Pastorok A PATH FORWARD Issues and Recommendations, W.R. Munns, Jr, L.W. Barnthouse, and M.T. SorensenREFERENCES AND APPENDICESReferencesAppendix 1Decision Context ScenariosAppendix 2Workshop Exercise: Application of 2 Modeling Techniques in a Theoretical Assessment for Agricultural Pesticide RegistrationAppendix 3Supplemental Reading List.

With the help of numerous case studies and real-world examples, this must-read book explores the latest developments in the ongoing effort to use risk assessment as a means for characterizing knowledge and/or lack of knowledge about a system or process of interest. --

"The Handbook of Violence Risk Assessment, Second Edition, builds off the previous edition's comprehensive discussion of violence risk assessment instruments with new and revised instruments that enable forensic psychologists to identify and predict the probable behavior of sex predators and violent offenders. Featuring chapters written by the instrument developers themselves, this handbook reviews the most common violence risk assessment instruments - both actuarial and structured professional judgment - used around the world to structure and inform mental health and other professionals' judgments about violence risk. Also included are broader chapters that address matters such as the consideration of psychopathy and how the law shapes violence risk assessment. Newly added chapters cover legal issues, numeric measures, brief and emerging measures, and recently released tests. Already the primary reference for practitioners, researchers, and legal professionals who deal with violent offenders, this second edition's easy-to-access, comprehensive, and current information will make it an indispensable reference for those in the field"--

The risk assessment-risk management paradigm / Gilbert Oman, David Eaton -- Risk assessment and regulatory decision making in environmental health / Felicia Wu, Joseph Rodericks -- Exposure assessment: the ways we measure exposure and its application to risk assessment / Donghai Liang.