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This Spotlight discusses the resurgence of military coups in Sub-Saharan Africa. We argue that an analytical and political focus on coup events misses out on the bigger picture of military influence in politics. Introducing the new Multidimensional Measures of Militarization (M3) dataset, we demonstrate that African countries that were part of the recent wave of coups, previously showed signs of political militarization such as military veto powers and impunity. We conclude that these subtle forms of military influence can serve as early warning indicators for military coups.
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Markus Bayer



Dr. Markus Bayer ist Senior Researcher am Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies (BICC). // Dr Markus Bayer is a Senior Researcher at Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies (BICC).

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Der Beitrag Back in Business or Never Out? Military Coups and Political Militarization in Sub-Sahara Africa erschien zuerst auf PRIF BLOG.

Does the length of time passing between elections and the announcement of elections results increase the risk of post-election violence? The declaration of official election results is a crucial moment in the electoral cycle. When electoral management bodies (EMBs) take longer than expected to announce official election results, it can signal to the opposition that the election is being stolen. Following this logic, this paper argues that the length of time between elections and the announcement of the official results acts as a signal of possible voter fraud, thereby increasing incentives for post-election violence. Hence, the paper hypothesises that a long length of time between elections and the announcement of official results increases the risk of post-election violence. This hypothesis is examined with an original dataset of election results declarations in African countries from 1997 to 2022. After controlling for important confounders that could influence delays in reporting and violence, the article empirically demonstrates that a longer length of time between elections and the announcement of official election results increases the risk of post-election violence. In doing so, this paper makes a significant contribution to studies of elections, and electoral violence. Its provision of a new dataset on election results declarations in African countries is also a significant contribution.

The authors acknowledge the support provided by the European Union through the African Component of the ACP Research Programme for Sustainable Development as well as the African Union Commission (No. AURG/2/058/2012). Furthermore we are grateful to Afri-Flame network, Esther Pedie, Thierry Tame, Niccolo Merigi and Jelte Harnmeijer for their collaboration, contributing their knowledge, experiences and opinions. ; Peer reviewed ; Postprint

The knowledge and understanding of the environmental related problems associated with development activities has increased rapidly in recent years. Consequently, arise in adoption of appraisal tools for monitoring environmental performance is also evidenced in a number of countries. In Sub-Sahara African (SSA) region, for instance, policy and regulation reform has been intensified over the past two decades demonstrating governments' initiatives in addressing environmental, social and economic aspects of sustainability. This paper reviews the extent of contribution the policy instruments make in monitoring and evaluating environmental impacts related to the building industry in the SSA. Basing on the reviewed literature of an ongoing PhD research, it is noted that there is need for appropriate information and data on which the proposed policies are to be based. Also different building stakeholders, researchers and the public sector need to participate not only in the policy formulation but also in defining sustainability in the local context and be considered as the basis for policy formulation.

While modern biotechnology and, specifically, genetic modification are subject of debate in many parts of the world, an increasing number of countries in Sub-Sahara Africa are making important strides towards authorizing general releases of genetically modified (GM) crop varieties for use by farmers and agribusinesses. Obviously, the documented economic and environmental benefits from planting GM crops—based on a track record of over two decades—are a major driver in the decision-making process. Another key factor is the increasing alignment of biosafety regulatory policies with progressive agricultural and rural development policies in Africa, resulting in—compared to past experiences—greater emphasis on anticipated benefits rather than risks in biosafety regulatory reviews. In several cases, this has led to expedited reviews of GM crop release applications, either for confined field trials or general environmental release, taking experiences and data from other countries into account. Such regulatory approaches hold promise as the pipeline of relevant, pro-poor GM crop applications is expanding as are the opportunities provided by novel plant breeding techniques. This review article analyses the shifting policy context in select African economies, resulting in adoption of new agricultural technology, and novel regulatory approaches used in biosafety decision-making. Case studies will be presented for Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria and Uganda to analyze challenges, distill lessons learned and to present general policy recommendations for emerging economies.

China's recent national and international regional development strategies emphasize both the deepening of the domestic market and the exploration of new markets and resource suppliers to support China's industrialization. The cooperation with, and investment in, Africa has become an integrated part of China's international regional development strategy. Investment in Africa is often the result of a decision process that requires balance among local complex political, economic, social, and geological conditions. Proper decision support analysis is the key for success or failure of complementary development. Based on location theories, the current study analyzes China's mining investment in Africa and derives a set of indicators to form the basis for evaluating China's investment strategies in the mining industries in Africa. A multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach, the VIKOR method, is applied to evaluate six African countries based on this set of indicators. Results suggest that while resource abundance and value are important factors for mining investment decisions, political stability and local legal system restrictions are weightier in the decision-making process. China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in mining industries in Africa is more inclined to countries with stable political environment, resource endowment and greater value advantage so that both parties can maximize the benefits from such investment.

This paper is about the effect of climate change on Sub-Sahara African (SSA) agricultural production in a post-colonial setting. While agricultural production certainly is the result of a multi-dimensional process (influenced by diverse branches of politics, by technology, and also by trade patters and violent conflicts, among others), already the partial analysis of the most obvious factors of influence is certainly valuable in the African case. Since agriculture is not only the single most important sector for the greatest majority of people there, but also a low-tech endeavor in Africa, the impact of temperature and particularly rainfall is crucial - to the point of life-threatening crop failure. In sum, we are able to shown that climate change influenced agricultural production in Sub-Sahara Africa in an unfavourable way. When considering traditional and modern inputs (labour, land and livestock, as well as capital and fertilizer, respectively) in a fixed-effects-model, particularly the effect of rainfall is significantly positive and important. Further, by separating countries into a low- and a med-tech group (with respect to modern inputs), different relationships between the standard factors can be revealed, and by refining the specification with respect to regional climatic differences some complexities in these general patterns can be shown.

This paper estimates the impact of market access liberalization in high-income countries on sub-Saharan African exports. The methodology exploits the large reduction in trade barriers that was induced by three unilateral trade liberalization initiatives: (1) the dismantling of the Multi-Fiber Arrangement, (2) the African Growth and Opportunity Act in the United States, and (3) the extension of EU trade preferences for developed countries through its Everything-but-Arms program and the General System of Preferences. Using detailed product-level information at the 6-digit level of the Harmonized System and a triple-difference empirical specification, the usual endogeneity-of-policy critique is flexibly controlled for. The results indicate strongly positive export effects, which are especially large for textile, apparel, and leather products, and tend to be realized fully within 5 years. Each percentage point reduction in import tariffs raises exports to the EU by 0.73 percent and to the United States by 0.30 percent; effects are two to three times as large for textiles. The presence of strong Chinese imports has ambiguous effects on countries' ability to take advantage of trade liberalization as the impact on the export effects to the EU and the United States show an opposite sign.