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Although the concept of monetary policy lag has historical roots deep in the monetary economics literature, relatively little attention has been paid to the idea. In this paper, we build on Svensson's (1997) inflation targeting framework by explicitly taking into account the lagged effect of monetary policy and characterize the optimal monetary policy reaction function both in the absence and in the presence of the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate. We numerically show the function to be more aggressive and more pre-emptive with the lagged effect than without it. We also characterize the long-run stabilization cost to the central bank by explicitly taking into account the lagged effect of monetary policy. It turns out that, in the presence of the zero lower bound constraint, the long-run stabilization cost is higher with the lagged effect than the case without it. This result suggests that the central bank and/or the government should set a relatively high inflation target when confronted with a relatively long monetary policy lag. This can be interpreted as another justification for targeting a positive inflation rate in the long-run.

Much has happened in the world of central banking in the past decade. In this paper, I focus on three issues associated with the zero lower bound (ZLB) on short-term nominal interest rates and the nexus between monetary policy and financial stability: 1) whether we are moving toward a permanently lower long-run equilibrium real interest rate; 2) what steps can be taken to mitigate the constraints imposed by the ZLB; and 3) whether and how financial stability considerations should be incorporated in the conduct of monetary policy. These important topics deserve the attention of both academic and government professionals.

In this paper we present a three period setup to model central bank forward guidance in a liquidity trap. We analyze the role of long-run and short-run price stickiness under discretion and commitment in a straightforward and intuitive way. Despite the impact of price rigidity on welfare being non-linear, losses under discretion are lowest with perfectly flexible prices. We show why the zero lower bound may still be binding even long after the shock has gone and characterize conditions when a commitment to hold nominal rates at zero for an extended period is optimal. We then introduce government spending and show that under persistently low policy rates optimal government spending becomes more front-loaded, while procyclical austerity fares worse than discretionary government spending.

This paper questions unconventional fiscal policy effects when the monetary policy rate is at the zero lower bound. We provide evidence for the US that the spread between the policy rate and the US-LIBOR, which is more relevant for private sector transactions, increases with government expenditures. We introduce a corresponding spread into an otherwise standard macroeconomic model which reproduces this observation. The model predicts that the fiscal multiplier takes conventional values, regardless of whether the policy rate follows a standard feedback rule or is at its zero lower bound. Likewise, labor tax increases exert contractionary effects in both cases.

In this note we elaborate on the effect of the modeling choice of the zero lower bound on the size of the fiscal multiplier. To this end we contrast two different ways to implement the ZLB in a New Keynesian model: the ZLB modeled as an endogenous central bank reaction to a contractionary demand shock as in Christiano, Eichenbaum, Rebelo (2011) and the ZLB modeled as an exogenous monetary shock as in Cogan, Cwik, Taylor, Wieland (2010). We find that only the former treat the ZLB as an appropriate constraint for policy. We show that the economic significant differences in the size of the fiscal multiplier are not only due to differences in the timing assumption of government spending but also driven by the choice of the ZLB modeling. Ceteris paribus, the impact multiplier is higher if the ZLB is modeled appropriately as a constraint.

"This book provides a comprehensive reference to state of the art zero bound term structure modeling in an applied setting. Based on the author's practical experience in the field, it covers tractable frameworks, macroeconomic foundations for ZLB models, and applications in the field of macro-finance. Split into seven chapters with two appendices, the book first provides an introduction to the principles of term structure modeling, its application to macro-finance and monetary policy, and the complications introduced by the ZLB for nominal interest rates. The following chapters focus on developing unique frameworks to better evaluate ZLB interest rates and bond prices. Finally, the book looks at applications in the field, such as monitoring the stance of unconventional monetary policy and managing fixed income portfolio risk. This book will be an essential desk reference for central bankers, market practitioners, and researchers, and will be a must-read for anyone involved in bond portfolio pricing, risk management, and macroeconomic and monetary policy analysis"--