Suchergebnisse

Argues that candidates lacking name recognition in competitive races where voters have little information, such as congressional primaries, may benefit from coverage of controversies in which they were involved; based on a census of newspaper coverage of the 1992 Republican primary and general election in Ohio's 15th district and the 2001 Democratic special primary in Massachusetts' 9th district. In both congressional races, the candidate who received the greatest volume of negative coverage was the victor.

Though the overreporting of voter turnout in the National Election Study (NES) is widely known, this article shows that the problem has become increasingly severe. The gap between NES and official estimates of presidential election turnout has more than doubled in a nearly linear fashion, from 11 points in 1952 to 24 points in 1996. This occurred because official voter turnout fell steadily from 1960 onward, while NES turnout did not. In contrast, the bias in House election turnout is always smaller and has increased only marginally. Using simple bivariate statistics, I find that worsening presidential turnout estimates are the result mostly of declining response rates rather than instrumentation, question wording changes, or other factors. As more peripheral voters have eluded interviewers in recent years, the sample became more saturated with self-reported voters, thus inflating reported turnout.

AbstractMost people overestimate how many women have been elected to Congress and state legislatures, but this misinformation reduces with age. Multivariate analysis of our original survey data confirms that young people are prone to overestimating how many seats are held by women, and this pattern is especially sharp among male respondents. In addition, a memory of being represented by a woman in the past tends to inflate overestimates further. Erroneous thinking among the young may produce an "ignorance is bliss" effect by reducing the apparent need to elect more women to office and raising levels of trust in government. In contrast, more realistic beliefs among older people make the dominance of men in public office more apparent and actionable.

Most people overestimate how many women have been elected to Congress and state legislatures, but this misinformation reduces with age. Multivariate analysis of our original survey data confirms that young people are prone to overestimating how many seats are held by women, and this pattern is especially sharp among male respondents. In addition, a memory of being represented by a woman in the past tends to inflate overestimates further. Erroneous thinking among the young may produce an "ignorance is bliss" effect by reducing the apparent need to elect more women to office and raising levels of trust in government. In contrast, more realistic beliefs among older people make the dominance of men in public office more apparent and actionable.

A fundamental requirement of democracy is the existence of contested elections. Our study documents and explains trends in uncontested seats in the U.S. Congress and state legislatures over time. We uncover a striking inconsistency in the health of elections: the frequency of uncontested seats in Congress has declined while the frequency of uncontested seats in state legislatures has actually increased. To explore these divergent trends, we consider factors that are common to both Congress and state legislatures such as the redistricting cycle but also variables that are unique to the state level. Our analysis points to the relative "flippability" of Congress compared to many state legislatures as a factor behind diverging levels of contestation. While many state legislatures have become bastions for dominant parties, congressional districts in those same states are often nonetheless viewed as enticing targets because they contribute to control of the federal government.