Suchergebnisse

This paper explores two aspects of the conduct of monetary policy under a monetary union. First, even if the preferences of policymakers over inflation and output variability are identical across member countries, differences in economic structure will mean different desired policy responses to even a common shock. Second, policymakers may be forced to make important concessions in their preferences over inflation and output variability. To examine these issues, in this paper we estimate the objective functions that the European national central banks were implicitly maximizing over the 15 or so years prior to monetary union, as well as the slopes of the inflation–output variability trade–off in each country.While the slopes of the trade–offs vary dramatically across countries, the objective functions are quite similar, with most countries having weights in excess of three–quarters on inflation variability and less than one–quarter on output variability. Our findings suggest that the concessions (in terms of preferences over output and inflation variability) that current inflation–targeting countries such as the UK and Sweden would have to make on accession to the European Monetary Union (EMU) are likely to be minimal. On the other hand, the differences in economic structure across the Eurosystem countries might make it difficult to formulate a common policy even in the face of common goals, suggesting that there may still be significant costs to joining for countries currently outside the EMU.

We study a Lucas asset-pricing model that is standard in all respects, except that the representative agent's subjective beliefs about endowment growth are distorted. Using constant relative risk-aversion (CRRA) utility, with a CRRA coefficient below 10; fluctuating beliefs that exhibit, on average, excessive pessimism over expansions; and excessive optimism over contractions (both ending more quickly than the data suggest), our model is able to match the first and second moments of the equity premium and risk-free rate, as well as the persistence and predictability of excess returns found in the data. (JEL E44, G12)

Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy

On 5-6 September 2012 SUERF held its 30th Colloquium "States, Banks, and the Financing of the Economy" at the University of Zürich, Switzerland. The papers included in this SUERF Study are based on contributions to the Colloquium. All the papers in this publication discuss from different angles the complex interrelations between states and financial systems, which have developed in recent years with economic, financial and sovereign debt crises. The contributions look primarily on the monetary policy and financial regulation and supervision perspectives. In the preceding SUERF Study (2013/2), the focus of the contributions also delivered at the 30th SUERF Colloquium is on fiscal policy and sovereign debt perspectives.

"What is the future of banking and money? The road passes through data and digitalization at all levels of activity, from personal banking through publicly and privately issued digital currencies. But who is winning and losing ground in the banking sector? Do we really need central bank digital currencies and how should they and private digital currencies be designed and regulated to yield the maximum benefits while reducing the obvious dangers? How should we regulate the new digital technologies? This book brings you the answers of senior public sector officials, industry leaders and leading academics. It is the tenth title in the Institute for Law and Finance's series on the future of the financial sector"--