How bad is antidumping?: evidence from panel data
In: Research paper 2007,17 : Theory and methods
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In: Research paper 2007,17 : Theory and methods
In: Economica, Band 88, Heft 350, S. 456-473
ISSN: 1468-0335
The dominant paradigm of the estimation of causal partial effects of preferential economic integration agreements (PEIAs) on trade costs and trade flows is to rely on a selection on observables, with propensity‐score matching being the leading example. Conditional on some score of joint determinants of PEIAs and trade flows, causal partial effects of PEIAs on trade are obtained from a simple conditional mean comparison of trade between members and non‐members. Key for this approach to obtain consistent estimates is that the score used to form comparison groups is balanced: similarity of country pairs in the PEIA propensity core means similarity in all the observables. Otherwise, the effects may be biased, misascribing effects of differences in individual observables to PEIA membership. We employ a remedy for this bias through entropy balancing, demonstrate that there is an upward bias of PEIA effects on trade flows from lack of covariate balancing, and quantify the bias of the effects.
In: Economic policy, Band 35, Heft 103, S. 519-559
ISSN: 1468-0327
SUMMARY
At the beginning of 2018, President Trump started taking protective tariff measures against products from China in a sequence of events which started a 'trade war' between the United States and China. As the value of trade flows affected on both sides rose to a significant amount, this episode will become an interesting research object in the future. A thorough analysis of many outcomes of interest is at this point in time – and even will be in the next few years – impossible due to a lack of data which will only become available at a later point. However, as is customary with historical preferential liberalizations in trade agreements and potentially the opposite of it through Brexit, it is possible to gauge consequences of this 'trade war' or 'trade dispute' when focusing on the stocks of listed companies around related tariff-change announcements or implementations by the United States and China in the relevant time span. This paper proposes such an analysis and finds, very much consistent with the rumours from business, that the associated protectionist tariffs appear to have done to a large extent the opposite of what was intended: they hurt domestic firms in targeted and also other, untargeted sectors of an acting country, and they affect third countries and territories which are not even party to the 'trade war' or 'dispute'.
In: CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP13602
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Working paper
In: CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP13338
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Working paper
In: Review of International Economics, Band 26, Heft 5, S. 1021-1039
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In: Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Research Paper No. RSCAS 2018/29
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Working paper
In: The Canadian journal of economics: the journal of the Canadian Economics Association = Revue canadienne d'économique, Band 50, Heft 2, S. 481-505
ISSN: 1540-5982
AbstractAccess to external funds is crucial for the entry and expansion of entrepreneurial firms and the sectors they predominantly arise in. This paper reports three important results. First, comparative advantage is shaped by factor endowments as well as fundamental determinants of corporate finance. In particular, a larger equity ratio of firms and tough governance standards relax financing constraints, lead to entry of firms at the lower bound of the productivity distribution and create an endogenous comparative advantage in sectors where entrepreneurial firms are clustered. Second, a small degree of protection in the constrained sector can raise a country's welfare by relaxing financing constraints if terms‐of‐trade effects are small. Third, a small degree of protection of the financially dependent industry in a financially underdeveloped country might even raise world welfare.
In: Economic policy, Band 32, Heft 89, S. 39-80
ISSN: 1468-0327
In: Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, Band 50, Heft 2, S. 481-505
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In: Forthcoming in: Batiz, F. R. and Spatareanu, M., (2017), Encyclopedia of International Economics and Global Trade, Vol. 4, Foreign Direct Investment, World Scientific Publishers.
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In: Economica, Band 84, Heft 335, S. 480-497
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Working paper
This paper provides a first assessment of Switzerland's international input-output linkages. In doing so, the paper focuses on Switzerland's trade with the European Union, which rep- resents the country's most important trading partner. In 2015, more than 50% of Swiss exports were directed to the EU while more than 70% of Swiss imports were sourced from EU countries. Using data on Switzerland's transaction-level imports and data on the sector association of a subset of Swiss firms, we are able to characterize the detailed nature of these imports regarding the sectors they are directed to and the countries they originate from.
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In: Journal of international economics, Band 97, Heft 1, S. 86-99
ISSN: 0022-1996