The 2016 Pollyvote Popular Vote Forecast: A Preliminary Analysis
In: Forthcoming in PS: Political Science and Politics
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In: Forthcoming in PS: Political Science and Politics
SSRN
Working paper
In: PS: political science & politics, Band 47, Heft 2, S. 427-431
ISSN: 1537-5935
ABSTRACTWe review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets, experts' judgment, political economy models, and index models to predict the two-party popular vote in the 2012 US presidential election. Throughout the election year the PollyVote provided highly accurate forecasts, outperforming each of its component methods, as well as the forecasts fromFiveThirtyEight.com. Gains in accuracy were particularly large early in the campaign, when uncertainty about the election outcome is typically high. The results confirm prior research showing that combining is one of the most effective approaches to generating accurate forecasts.
In: Political Science & Politics, Forthcoming
SSRN
In: PS: political science & politics, Band 47, Heft 2, S. 427-431
ISSN: 0030-8269, 1049-0965
In: International Journal of Forecasting, 30(1), 43-54
SSRN
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 30, Heft 1, S. 43-54
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: PS: political science & politics, Band 50, Heft 2, S. 331-338
ISSN: 1537-5935