"Der Autor wendet das Theorem des demokratischen Friedens auf innerstaatliche politische Konflikte an. Er weist nach, dass demokratische politische Systeme tatsächlich über ein hohes Potenzial zur Konfliktregulierung verfügen. Gleichwohl wohnen sowohl den demokratischen Prinzipien und Strukturen als auch Demokratisierungsprozessen Ursachen oder Auslöser von Destabilisierung und Gewalt inne, die im schlimmsten Falle sogar zu einem Zusammenbruch der (neuen) Demokratie führen können." (Autorenreferat)
Der russische Angriffskrieg auf die Ukraine stellt die lange währende Vorstellung eines friedlichen Europas auf den Kopf. Und er fordert Fragen nach Charakter und Bedingungen von Krieg und Frieden heraus. Diese Fragen beantwortet Thorsten Gromes vom Leibniz-Institut Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung im Interview und spricht über die Entwicklungen nationaler wie internationaler bewaffneter Konflikte.
Existing research suggests that peace is more stable after military victories than it is after peace agreements. This article challenges this conventional wisdom. By applying survival analysis, we demonstrate that peace agreements exhibit just as strong of a relationship to enduring peace as military victories do. Moreover, we investigate the assumptions that underpin the aforementioned claim. These assumptions link peace survival to the type of civil war termination and refer to intervening variables. Using time-series data for 48 civil wars that ended between 1990 and 2009, the empirical analysis finds support for only two underpinning assumptions in favour of victories.
Despite abundant debates on humanitarian military interventions, there is yet little empirical knowledge about these operations and their effects due to a lack of systematized data. To stimulate the necessary comparative research, this article introduces a new data set on all humanitarian military interventions between 1946 and 2015. The data set outlines the interveners' proclaimed aims, mandates, and activities. Documentation of events in the target countries prior to, during, and after the interventions facilitates their evaluation. The data set consists of data matrices and structured case descriptions that document all coding decisions. A review of the spatial and temporal distribution of interveners and interventions refutes the prevalent view that the vast majority of humanitarian military interventions are conducted by Western states and that such missions subsided after the interventions in Afghanistan and Libya. The data set enables a wide range of quantitative and qualitative research. Despite its limited number of cases, it can reveal whether humanitarian military interventions generally decrease the duration and intensity of violence. Among other applications, it can help identify the conditions under which such interventions lead to an escalation or de-escalation of deadly violence.