Suchergebnisse

The initial optimism that greeted the onset of the "Third Wave" of democratization has cooled with the instability of many new democracies and the proliferation of stable competitive authoritarian regimes. These disappointments have produced a return to structural theories emphasizing the constraints posed by underdevelopment, resource endowments, inequality, and ethno-religious cleavages. We argue, however, for a sharper focus on the political mechanisms that link such factors to the emergence of democracy, including the extent of institutionalization in new democracies and the still understudied role of civil society and the capacity for collective action. The international dimensions of democratization also require closer analysis. We also underline a methodological point: The quest for an overarching theory of democracy and democratization may be misguided. Generalizations supported by cross-national statistical work yield numerous anomalies and indicate the need for approaches that emphasize combinations of causal factors, alternative pathways, and equifinality.

Recent work by Carles Boix and Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson has focused on the role of inequality and distributive conflict in transitions to and from democratic rule. We assess these claims through causal process observation, using an original qualitative dataset on democratic transitions and reversions during the "third wave" from 1980 to 2000. We show that distributive conflict, a key causal mechanism in these theories, is present in just over half of all transition cases. Against theoretical expectations, a substantial number of these transitions occur in countries with high levels of inequality. Less than a third of all reversions are driven by distributive conflicts between elites and masses. We suggest a variety of alternative causal pathways to both transitions and reversions.

Abstract: Does democracy lead to more inclusive and equitable social contracts? Our answer is a qualified "yes." Democratization in Latin America and Eastern Europe increased attention to social policy despite wrenching economic crises. Yet welfare legacies of the early and mid-twentieth century affected the new policy course. In Latin America, unequal entitlements eased political constraints on liberal reforms of existing social insurance systems and encouraged targeted assistance to the poor. Eastern Europe pursued a more solidaristic approach that avoided segmented assistance to the poor. But this approach also reproduced many inefficiencies and de facto rationing of the socialist period.

Since the debt crisis of 1982, Mexico has experienced more than a decade of market-oriented economic reform, but research on public opinion toward reform is limited. Drawing on general findings from opinion research in the United States, this study examines how policy preferences of Mexicans are shaped by social background, judgments about the economy, and political loyalties. The effect of these variables is examined across three national surveys, conducted in 1992, 1994, and 1995. We found that favorable orientations toward the president and the ruling party were consistently the strongest predictors of preferences about reform. Furthermore, as in the United States, sociotropic evaluations of the economy outweigh "pocketbook" concerns; despite many years of reform, both expectations and retrospective judgments are important in shaping preferences, particularly since the 1994 crisis; and social background variables have limited direct influence.

Since the debt crisis of 1982, Mexico has experienced more than a decade of market-oriented economic reform, but research on public opinion toward reform is limited. Drawing on general findings from opinion research in the United States, this study examines how policy preferences of Mexicans are shaped by social background, judgments about the economy, and political loyalties. The effect of these variables is examined across three national surveys, conducted in 1992, 1994, and 1995. We found that favorable orientations toward the president and the ruling party were consistently the strongest predictors of preferences about reform. Furthermore, as in the United States, sociotropic evaluations of the economy outweigh "pocketbook" concerns; despite many years of reform, both expectations and retrospective judgments are important in shaping preferences, particularly since the 1994 crisis; and social background variables have limited direct influence. (American Political Science Review / FUB)

Examines how policy preferences of Mexicans are shaped by social background, judgments about the economy, and political loyalties; focuses on extent to which opinions about reform are influenced by attitudes toward the president and ruling party; based on national surveys conducted in 1992, 1994, and 1995.

Programa Nacional de Solidaridad (PRONASOL). Examines changing relations between regional PRONASOL and Institutional Revolutionary (PRI) officials; focuses on regional politics in transition from dominant-party regimes, and conflict within former political hierarchies; since 1994, chiefly. Covers Puebla, Nayarit, Tamaulipas, and Baja, California; some focus on the National Action Party (PAN), and the Secretariat of Social Development (SEDESOL).