Suchergebnisse

In order to make any dent on unemployment, South Africa's growth path needs to become significantly more labour-demanding. But what is the best way of achieving that end? On the face of it, the problem is simple: job creation depends crucially on investment growth, hence appropriate strategies are those which encourage capital accumulation and ensure that as many jobs as possible are created per unit of investment. But this apparently focussed answer raises two further fundamental questions: what drives investment; and what kind of investment is best suited to sustainable, labour-demanding growth? The first part of the paper considers some of the macroeconomic determinants of investment, and asks whether South Africa's macroeconomic growth strategy i s ' investor-friendly'. Although the jury is still out, it seems that the architects of the government's Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) framework underestimated the negative impact of constraining demand on private investment. But the determinants of growth extend beyond the macroeconomic policy stance and into the arena of the growth path itself. Part Two considers the question of what broader growth strategies are good for growth. In doing so, it considers some of the 'lessons' from international experience for growth. The South African experience is referred to where relevant. Part Three considers the narrower question as to what kind of investment is appropriate for a labour-demanding growth path. Is it better to go for maximising the number of jobs created now - in which case labour intensive investment is preferable - or is there an argument in favour of capital- and skill-intensive investment as a catalyst for more dynamic andlabour-demanding growth later? 'High productivity now' (HPN) strategies (which appear to inform South Africa's industrial and labour policies) opt for the latter. 'Hard HPN' strategies seek to discourage (or even eliminate) low-wage, low-productivity activities, whereas 'Soft HPN' strategies seek merely to encourage greater productivity growth. It is argued that South Africa's industrial policy stance is consistent with Soft HPN, but that labour market policy towards wage-setting is more in line with Hard HPN thinking.

During the apartheid era, many South Africans were forcibly relocated to 'bantustans' and other decentralized regions with little economic basis. The only manufacturing employment was provided by industries attracted to the areas by selective incentives and low wages. After the transition to democracy, the remaining incentives were removed and minimum wages were extended to these (previously exempt) areas. This study of workers and managers in the clothing industry in Phuthaditjhaba, the old capital of the QwaQwa homeland, indicates that such developments may exacerbate unemployment and poverty in the region. Taiwanese export‐oriented firms (the largest employers) are most threatened by the changes as they prefer to pay new employees low wages, and then increase them in line with experience and productivity. Falling employment will translate directly into rising poverty as very little welfare support is available for the unemployed in South Africa. Given that people (whether employed or unemployed) consistently rank increases in employment over wage increases, this suggests that minimum wage determination should be particularly sensitive to local conditions and potential employment losses.Pendant le règne de l'apartheid, de nombreux Sud‐Africains ont été réimplantés de force dans les 'bantoustans' ou autres régions décentralisées à faible base économique. Le seul emploi industriel provenait des secteurs attirés dans ces zones par des mesures d'incitation et des salaires avantageux. Après la transition vers la démocratie, les dernières primes ont été supprimées et les salaires minimum étendus à ces régions (jusque lá dispensées). Cette étude des ouvriers et cadres du secteur de l'habillement à Phuthaditjhaba, ancienne capitale du QwaQwa, indique que ces changements sont susceptibles d'aggraver chômage et pauvreté au plan local. Les exportateurs taïwanais (les plus gros employeurs) sont les plus menacés puisqu'ils préfèrent payer peu les nouveaux embauchés, puis les augmenter en fonction de l'expérience et de la productivité. Une chute de l'emploi se traduirait directement par une accentuation de la pauvreté, les chômeurs bénéficiant d'une aide tès limitée en Afrique du Sud. Étant donné que les gens (qu'ils aient un travail ou non) classent systématiquement la progression de l'emploi avant celle des salaires, on peut en déduire que le minimum salarial devrait varier très sensiblement selon le contexte local et les pertes d'emploi potentielles.