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This paper attempts to show how data from the 1961 & 1966 census reports can be used to explore the soc patterns of immigrant areas in Birmingham, England. Provided that attention is confined to the characteristics of immigrant areas rather than immigrants themselves, census data provides an under-ezploited source of res material. The variables considered in each of 39 electoral wards are the %'s of colored, Irish & white immigrants & 14 soc variables relating to class, housing tenure, geographical mobility, pop density, & age structure. Regression & r analysis were used to try & identify the group of soc variables most strongly associated with immigrant areas. As the soc variables are themselves highly r'ed, partial r's were used to try & pick out the diff'ial effects of the soc variables. It is concluded that Irish & immigrant areas have a set of primary characteristics concerned with both class & housing. The other soc variables are secondary characteristics not 'indigeneous' to immigrant areas but by-products of the primary variables. A similar analysis of the change in %'s between 1961 & 1966 suggests that the colored immigrant community became increasingly concentrated in soc'ly deprived areas, while the Irish immigrant community was becoming more dispersed. AA.

The critical importance of marginal constituencies and wards in determining national and local election results in England leads to the question 'What makes a ward marginal? ' The results of research on 384 electoral contests over ten years in Birmingham shows that the social class composition of a ward primarily determines its marginality or safety. The class composition associated with a high degree of marginality is as follows: for every non-manual worker there are likely to be twice as many foremen and skilled manual workers, and for every non-manual worker there are likely to be between one and a half and twice as many semi and unskilled manual workers. The further a ward departs from these ratios the more likely it is to be safe for the Labour or Conservative Party. The ratios are highly reliable in picking out marginal and safe wards in normal political periods involving only small swings of electoral opinion between the parties. During abnormal periods, such as the landslide against the Labour Party between 1965 and 1969, the ratios shift slightly but are nevertheless a good indicator of marginal propensity.

Marginal constituencies & wards--those which are not "safe" for one or other of the 2 main parties--have critical importance in determining nat'l & local elections in England. The results of res on 384 electoral contests in Birmingham, from 1956 to 1968, show that marginality or safety of a ward is determined primarily by SC composition. IPSA.