Die Regierung des Ministerpräsidenten Narendra Modi hat im November einen politischen Angriff auf die Reserve Bank of India (RBI) gestartet. Dies ist eine alarmierende Entwicklung, da die Glaubwürdigkeit und Effektivität der RBI zur makroökonomischen und finanziellen Stabilität Indiens wesentlich beigetragen und das BIP-Wachstum in den letzten Jahren stabilisiert hat. Hintergründe und Einschätzung skizziert der nachfolgende Text.
China and the U.S. have a close but complicated economic relationship. This note provides a fuller picture of the tightening embrace between the two countries – in terms of flows of goods and services, financial capital and people – and discusses the potential flashpoints in this relationship. This bilateral relationship is important not just for the principals but also for the broader world economy as the cooperative or conflicted nature of this relationship will set the tone for progress on a number of multilateral issues, including reform of the international monetary system and tackling climate change.
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groupsindustrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregatesoutput, consumption, and investmentinto different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has bee some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them. -- Globalization ; Business cycles ; Macroeconomic fluctuations ; Convergence ; Decoupling
Enthält Rezensionen von:‡‡Prasad, Eswar: Gaining currency : the rise of Renminbi. - New York/N.Y. : Oxford University Press, 2016‡‡Subacchi, Paola: The people's money : how China is building a global currency. - Columbia University Press, 2016
