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This paper investigates the role of higher order beliefs in the formation of exchange rates. Our model combines a standard macroeconomic dynamics for the exchange rates with a microeconomic specification of agents' heterogeneity and their interactions. The empirical analysis relies on a state space model estimated through Bayesian methods. We exploit data on macroeconomic fundamentals in a panel of subjective forecasts on the euro/dollar exchange rate. The equilibrium strategy on the optimization process of the predictors shows that higher order beliefs is the relevant factor in performing individual forecasting. Moreover public information, namely past exchange rates and fundamentals, plays a crucial role as a coordination device to generate expectations among agents on the basis of their forecasting abilities.

We study the underground economy within a dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium framework. Our model combines limited tax enforcement with an otherwise standard two- sector neoclassical stochastic growth model. The Bayesian estimation of the model based on Italian data provides evidence in favor of an important underground sector in Italy, with a size that has increased steadily over the whole sample period. We show that this pattern is due to a steady increase in taxation. Fiscal policy experiments suggest that a moderate tax cut, along with a stronger effort in the monitoring process, causes a sizeable reduction in the size of the underground economy and provides a positive stimulus for the regular economy. Both of these effects jointly increase total fiscal revenues.

This paper estimates Taylor rules featuring instabilities in policy parameters and switches in policy shocks'volatility for the post-WWII U.S. economy. We contrast a rule embedding a fi…xed-in‡flation target with another featuring trend inflation, i.e. a time-varying inflation target. The rule embedding trend inflation turns out to be a) empirically superior according to a marginal likelihood-based comparison, and b) more able to pin down some relevant episodes of the post-WWII U.S. monetary policy history. Estimates conducted with Greenbook data confirm the empirical superiority of the rule featuring a time-varying inflation target. A comparison with recently published estimates of trend inflation is also conducted

We study the Lemons Problem when workers have private information on both their skills and their intrinsic motivation for the job offered by firms in the labor market. We first show that, when workers are motivated, inefficiencies due to adverse selection are mitigated. More interestingly, depending on the association between productivity and motivation, higher salaries affect the pool of candidates in three possible ways: they can attract (i) more skilled but less motivated applicants, as expected; (ii) more skilled and more motivated applicants; (iii) less skilled and less motivated applicants. The last two counterintuitive effects can only occur when a positive correlation exists between productivity and motivation. Our results are relevant in the policy debate on whether it is possible to improve the quality of workers in vocational markets by changing their wage rate and reconcile the different empirical evidence provided so far on motivated workers such as public servants, teachers, health professionals and, politicians.

We study the Lemons Problem when workers have private information on both their skills and their intrinsic motivation for the job offered by firms in the labor market. We first show that, when workers are motivated, inefficiencies due to adverse selection are mitigated. More interestingly, depending on the association between productivity and motivation, higher salaries affect the pool of candidates in three possible ways: they can attract (i) more skilled but less motivated applicants, as expected; (ii) more skilled and more motivated applicants; (iii) less skilled and less motivated applicants. The last two counterintuitive effects can only occur when a positive correlation exists between productivity and motivation. Our results are relevant in the policy debate on whether it is possible to improve the quality of workers in vocational markets by changing their wage rate and reconcile the different empirical evidence provided so far on motivated workers such as public servants, teachers, health professionals and, politicians.