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We study political business cycles (PBC) in newly democratized and decentralized Indonesia at the local level. As the timing of indirect and later on direct elections of district heads differs exogenously across jurisdictions, the political business cycle effect is clearly identified . Our data allow distinguishing PBCs for indirect and direct elections. We find significant budget cycles for discretionary budget categories at the disposal of the district head (not for the overall budget) only for direct elections, not for indirect elections. These cycles are much larger if the incumbent runs for reelection. Our results underline the conditional nature of PBC.

This paper analyzes the regional impact of Indonesia's fuel policy. It discusses how the sharing of oil and gas revenue and taxes on oil and gas between the center and the regions affect sub-national fiscal position and what the regional incidence of the fuel subsidies is. It also analyzes the regional impact of president's recent proposal to discontinue subsidizing vehicle fuel aswell as the proposal to eliminate the fuel subsidies altogether and shows how the regions are affected ty these suggestions.

We analyze the allocation of discretionary grants from the central government to local governments in Indonesia. Using OLS and Fixed Effects models on an unbalanced panel data set for more than 400 Indonesian districts covering the period 2005-2013, we investigate whether the allocation of the grants is determined by the need of a district, by political alignment of the central government with the local district heads, or by reelection motives of the incumbent president. We find that grant allocations are not determined by need characteristics and that political considerations matter significantly. Districts with low support for the president received significantly more than the core supporting districts, especially in the year of national elections. This effect is limited to the first term of the president. In the second term, after which reelection is impossible, political considerations were largely absent. This pattern is consistent with the view that the incumbent president considers discretionary grants as an instrument to increase reelection probabilities. Unlike the evidence for most countries, we find no effect for political party alignment with local district heads. Our results are robust to the inclusion of a number of other variables capturing competing motives.

The globalized era is characterized by a high degree of interconnectedness across borders and continents and this includes human migration. Migration flows have led to new governance challenges and, at times, populist political backlashes. A key driver of migration is environmental conflict and this is only likely to increase with the effects of climate change. Bringing together world-leading researchers from across political science, environmental studies, economics and sociology, this urgent book uses a multifaceted theoretical and methodological approach to delve into core questions and concerns surrounding migration, climate change and conflict, providing invaluable insights into one of the most pressing global issues of our time

Globalization and Armed Conflict addresses one of the most important and controversial issues of our time: Does global economic integration foster or suppress violent disputes within and among states? Here, cutting-edge research by leading figures in international relations shows that expanding commercial ties between states pacifies some, but not necessarily all, political relationships. The authors demonstrate that the pacific effect of economic integration hinges on democratic structures, the size of the global system, the nature of the trade goods, and a reduced influence of the mil