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The findings of a two-year study into the effectiveness of the RAPt drug treatment programme which enables male prisoners with self-confessed problems of substance misuse to lead a drug and alcohol-free life in prison and in the community after release. The report also assesses whether completion of the programme is associated with a reduction in the likelihood of reconviction post-release. A unique and highly significant collection of information and data.

Jane Wynne, Co-ordinator of the Leeds Victim/Offender Unit, and Dr. Imogen Brown, Research and Information Manager in the West Yorkshire Probation Service, describe the work of a mediation scheme in Leeds. According to a series of reconviction studies, the scheme appears to have had a positive impact on rates of reoffending, and a recent consumer survey suggests that it is a much valued resource amongst both victims and offenders.

Explaining Criminal Careers presents a simple quantitative theory of crime, conviction and reconviction, the assumptions of the theory are derived directly from a detailed analysis of cohort samples drawn from the "UK Home Office" Offenders Index (OI). Mathematical models based on the theory, together with population trends, are used to make: exact quantitative predictions of features of criminal careers; aggregate crime levels; the prison population; and to explain the age-crime curve, alternative explanations are shown not to be supported by the data. Previous research is reviewed, clearly identifying the foundations of the current work. Using graphical techniques to identify mathematical regularities in the data, recidivism (risk) and frequency (rate) of conviction are analysed and modelled. These models are brought together to identify three categories of offender: high-risk / high-rate, high-risk / low-rate and low-risk / low-rate. The theory is shown to rest on just 6 basic assumptions. Within this theoretical framework the seriousness of offending, specialisation or versatility in offence types and the psychological characteristics of offenders are all explored suggesting that the most serious offenders are a random sample from the risk/rate categories but that those with custody later in their careers are predominantly high-risk/high-rate. In general offenders are shown to be versatile rather than specialist and can be categorised using psychological profiles. The policy implications are drawn out highlighting the importance of conviction in desistance from crime and the absence of any additional deterrence effect of imprisonment. The use of the theory in evaluation of interventions is demonstrated.

This study examined the role of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R; R. D. Hare, 1991) and sexual deviance scores in predicting recidivism in a sample of 94 convicted rapists involuntarily admitted to a Dutch forensic psychiatric hospital between 1975 and 1996. The predictive utility of grouping offenders based on the combination of psychopathy and sexual deviance was also investigated. Measures were coded from prerelease institutional records. Recidivism (reconviction) data were retrieved from the Judicial Documentation Register of the Ministry of Justice and were related to PCL-R and sexual deviance cores. The follow-up period after release ranged up to 23.5 years (M = 11. 8 years). Base rates for sexual, violent nonsexual, violent (including sexual), and general recidivism were 34%, 47%, 55%, and 73%, respectively. For all types of offending, offenders scoring high on the PCL-R (>26) were significantly more often reconvicted than other offenders. The sexual deviance score was found to be a significant predictor of sexual reconviction. Survival analyses provided considerable evidence that psychopathic sex offenders with sexual deviant preferences are at substantially greater risk of committing new sexual offenses than psychopathic offenders without deviant preferences or nonpsychopathic offenders with or without sexual deviance. The findings are discussed in terms of their practical and clinical implications.

This paper describes the construction and testing of a framework for dynamic risk assessment. A review of previous studies identified 4 domains into which dynamic risk factors for sexual offending seem to fall. These were sexual interests, distorted attitudes, socioaffective functioning, and self-management. Psychometric indicators for 3 of the domains were identified, and 2 studies are reported using these indicators to test the framework. Study 1 divided men serving a prison sentence for a sexual offense against a child into 2 groups-those with a previous conviction of this kind (Repeaters) and those for whom this was the only time they had been sentenced for such an offense (Current Only). The Repeaters were found to show more distorted attitudes, worse socioaffective functioning, and poorer self-management than did the Current Only group. Study 2 used a simple algorithm to combine these psychometric indicators into an overall "Deviance" classification. Reconviction data was obtained for offenders classified as high, moderate, or low on Deviance. Sexual reconviction was found to be monotonically associated with the Deviance classification. Logistic regression analysis showed that both static variables (Static-99) and the Deviance classification made independent contributions to prediction. It is suggested that risk assessment procedures should combine these 2 approaches.

Prisoner resettlement is high on current political and policy agendas. The high reconviction rates of ex-prisoners have been acknowledged for many years but the rapidly rising prison population has meant that more prisoners than ever before are released. This together with the pressure this puts on to the infrastructure of the prison estate and the publication of two influential reports which highlighted the problems faced by prisoners leaving prison has concentrated attention on attempts to ensure that prisoners do not return to prison once released. The resettlement of prisoners is now a pri

ZusammenfassungKriminalprognostische Verfahren sind unerlässlicher Bestandteil der Beurteilung von Rückfallwahrscheinlichkeiten im Zuge von Entlassungsentscheidungen. Ihre Eignung zur Vorhersage von Lockerungsmissbräuchen und intramuralen Regelverstößen wurde hingegen bislang kaum untersucht. Die vorliegende Studie prüft die prädiktive Validität der 3. Version der Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS 3) und des Screeninginstrument zur Vorhersage des Gewaltrisikos (SVG-5) an einer Stichprobe von 200 Insassen der Justizvollzugsanstalt Frankenthal. Darüber hinaus werden weitere potenzielle Prädiktoren explorativ untersucht. Für die Prognoseinstrumente ergeben sich überwiegend geringe bis maximal moderate Effektstärken (OGRS 3: Area Under the Curve (AUC) = 0,522 bis 0,556 und SVG-5: AUC = 0,561 bis 0,653). Die vorliegenden Ergebnisse sollten aufgrund methodischer Limitationen allerdings zurückhaltend interpretiert werden. Sie können jedoch als Ausgangspunkt und Grundlage für zukünftige Forschung in diesem Bereich verwendet werden, da die Resultate nahelegen, dass auch Lockerungsmissbräuche und intramurales Fehlverhalten grundsätzlich vorhergesagt werden können.

Risk Matrix 2000 is a statistically derived risk-assessment instrument for use with convicted male sex offenders. It is a core element of the sex offender risk assessments carried out in England, Wales, and Scotland. This study examines its validity in a large cohort of sex offenders released from Scottish prisons. It compares 5-year outcomes with findings from the original Risk Matrix validity sample (a 1979 cohort of sex offenders in England and Wales). The instrument had moderate predictive validity and performed in a similar manner in the two studies in spite of different underlying base rates of reconviction.

This investigation explores the relationship of sentence management and recidivism. Data were manually gathered on a sample of more than 200 prisoners released from two facilities in Scotland. Key elements of sentence management are observed as significant in the prediction of reoffending, such as a prisoner's previous offense history and employability. However, other elements integral to the design of sentence management, such as psychometric and behavioral test results, are not. In addition, survival analysis shows that release from an open prison environment is associated with reduced reconviction rates, but only during the 1st year from release.

This article describes the system of youth justice adopted in New Zealand in 1989, which introduced a number of radical and innovative features including the involvement of young people, families, and victims in deciding how best to deal with the offending. The principle mechanism for achieving this is the family group conference, which replaces or supplements the Youth Court as the principle decision-making forum in most of the more serious cases. Research data are presented that indicate that, to a large extent, this new process is working well and may be having an impact on reconviction figures.

To appraise the "real-world" implementation of the risk principle, this study examined the predictive validity of a Risk-Need-Responsivity assessment in the Swedish Prison and Probation Service. Reconviction rates at 24 months follow-up in a cohort of 2,442 offenders were used to assess calibration and discrimination indices. Results indicated acceptable predictive accuracy (AUC = .68–.74), with scope for improvement among young adult offenders. The tool's utility was supported foremost by its ability to screen out low-risk offenders, while over-prediction of recidivism among medium- and high-risk offenders calls for more comprehensive assessment to inform the effective planning of rehabilitative service intensity.

This study addresses the validity of the Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R) as a predictor of recidivism for women. We analyzed all female parolees that were released in New Jersey in 2006 ( n = 450) as well as a randomly selected group of male parolees. Results indicate that the LSI-R was a valid predictor of rearrests, reconvictions, and technical parole violations, but that the instrument was problematic in accurately predicting true positives both across genders as well as outcome types. It is likely that this lack of specificity is due to local-level policies regarding the use of the instrument.

This study investigates characteristics differentiating sexually motivated murderers targeting child victims (CV; n = 35) from those with only adult victims (AV; n = 100). In the initial phase, psychiatric court reports were evaluated using standardized instruments (SCID-II, PCL-R, HCR-20, SVR-20, Static-99). In the second phase, data on duration of detention and reconviction rates were obtained from German federal criminal records. The CV group showed more often diagnostic criteria of pedophilia (43% vs. 4%) and less often alcohol abuse and drug dependency (31% vs. 55%), sexual dysfunctions (9% vs. 29%) and narcissistic personality disorder (0% vs. 13%). No significant differences were found regarding PCL-R and total risk assessment scores. Child victim perpetrators were more likely to have committed acts of sexual child abuse before the sexual homicide (46% vs. 16%) but were less likely to have committed rape or sexual assault (17% vs. 42%) or caused bodily injury (26% vs. 50%). The CV group was detained more frequently in forensic psychiatric hospitals (59% vs. 26%), but the two groups showed the same rates of release and reconviction for sexual (22% for both groups), nonsexual violent (CV 25% vs. AV 15%) and nonviolent offenses (CV 63% vs. AV 59%). Although well-known differences between nonhomicidal sexual child abusers and rapists were replicated in this study on sexual homicide perpetrators, the groups showed more similarities than differences. The high prevalence of violence and antisocial personality disorder in both groups seem to be important risk factors for committing a (sexual) homicide and might have outweighed other differences.

AbstractThe risk principle of offender rehabilitation states that the intensity of treatment should be proportional to the offender's risk. This article reviews the evidence base for the risk principle with sexual offenders, as well as identifying other arguments, in order to determine whether low‐risk sexual offenders need treatment, and of what type and magnitude. We conclude that low‐risk sexual offenders probably need no more than 100 hours of offence‐focused treatment given their very low reconviction rates. Low‐risk sexual offenders should be kept separate from higher‐risk offenders, and treatment should not interfere with other activities that will enable a non‐offending lifestyle.