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Cover -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Measuring Uncertainty: Aggregate vs. Sectoral -- A. The Effect of Uncertainty Shocks on Unemployment: Different Explanations -- B. Construction of the Uncertainty Indices from the U.S. Stock Market -- III. Structural VARs -- A. The Effects of Uncertainty Shocks -- B. Contribution of Uncertainty Shocks to Long-Term Unemployment during the Great Recession -- C. Robustness Checks -- IV. Conclusion -- References -- Figures -- 1. Uncertainty Index -- 2 Distribution of Aggregate and Sectoral Uncertainty Indices -- 3. Unemployment Rate (percent) -- 4. Response to Aggregate Uncertainty Shocks (7 Variable VAR) -- 5. Response to Sectoral Uncertainty Shocks (7 Variable VAR) -- 6. Forecast Error Decomposition of Unemployment Rate by Aggregate Uncertainty -- 7. Forecast Error Decomposition of Unemployment Rate by Sectoral Uncertainty -- 8. The Response of the Long-term Unemployment Rate to Uncertainty Shocks -- 9. Contribution of Uncertainty Shocks to the Long-term Unemployment Rate during the Great Recession -- 10a. Robustness Check: Estimation with Data from 1984Q1 to 2014Q3 -- 10b. Robustness Check: Estimation with Data from 1984Q1 to 2007Q4 -- 11. Robustness Check: 4 Variable VAR -- 12 Robustness Check: The Reverse Ordering of the Baseline VAR System -- 13 Robustness Check: Using 8 Lags instead of 4 Lags -- Appendix A. Construction of the Sectoral Uncertainty Index -- Table A1. Industrial Composition of the Sestoral Uncertainty Index

This issue of Philosophical Transactions examines the relationship between scientific uncertainty about climate change and knowledge. Uncertainty is an inherent feature of the climate system. Considerable effort has therefore been devoted to understanding how to effectively respond to a changing, yet uncertain climate. Politicians and the public often appeal to uncertainty as an argument to delay mitigative action. We argue that the appropriate response to uncertainty is exactly the opposite: uncertainty provides an impetus to be concerned about climate change, because greater uncertainty increases the risks associated with climate change. We therefore suggest that uncertainty can be a source of actionable knowledge. We survey the papers in this issue, which address the relationship between uncertainty and knowledge from physical, economic and social perspectives. We also summarize the pervasive psychological effects of uncertainty, some of which may militate against a meaningful response to climate change, and we provide pointers to how those difficulties may be ameliorated.

This paper is based on a talk given in Varenna, Lake Como, Italy, September 2003, at the Summer School TOWARDS ELECTRONIC DEMOCRACY: INTERNET-BASED DECISION SUPPORT organized by CNR-IMATI-Milano branch and supported by THE EUROPEAN SCIENCE FOUNDATION, establishing the programme TOWARDS ELECTRONIC DEMOCRACY (TED) with the objective of discussing and evaluating how advances in interactive decision analytic tools might help develop inclusive e-democratic systems which involve their electorates more fully in decision making. The lectures and e-learning materials from the summer school are available at http://www.sal.hut.fi/TED/