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This 1994 book is a study of Scottish price history and a major contribution to the economic and social history of early modern and pre-industrial Britain. Using the remarkable series of 'fiars' prices for grains and other contemporary sources, Gibson and Smout focus, in particular, on the prices of grain, meal and animal products, and assess how Scots artisans and labourers could survive in an economy that could pay only very low money wages. The authors show how the Scottish people experienced fluctuations in welfare both in the longer term from generation to generation, and within a given life-cycle. The Scottish records on prices and wages are a unique historical resource, to which Gibson and Smout have applied both traditional and quantitative historical techniques. In so doing they produced a powerful contribution to the perennial debate on the standard of living of ordinary people prior to the onset of industrialization

Pakistan experienced too much variation in crude oil prices in the last decades and this variation received a great attention because it uses all the sectors of the economy. The purpose of this study is to ascertain the determinants of Real Exchange Rate and analyze the impact of Real Oil Price Volatility on Real Exchange Rate Volatility in Pakistan over 1983-Q1 to 2014-Q2. Various econometric techniques like Johansen Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model have been used for short run and long run analysis respectively. Our findings explores that productivity differential, real foreign exchange reserves, interest rate differential, real exports and oil prices are the determinants of exchange rate. While, Real Foreign exchange reserves volatility, CPI volatility and Real Oil Price Volatility have positive and NEWS has a negative effect on Real Exchange Rate Volatility. Volatility results through EGARCH (1, 1) shows the presence of leverage effect in Real Oil Price Volatility and Real Exchange Rate Volatility. The government should make suitable policies for equilibrium of oil demand and supply in order to keep the exchange rate stable. Future research can be made on cross sectional countries by using monthly data of variables.

Using nationally-representative household survey data and confidential geo-coded data on violence, we examine the linkages between conflict, food insecurity, and food price shocks in Afghanistan. Spatial mappings of the raw data reveal large variations in levels of food insecurity and conflict across the country; surprisingly, food insecurity is not higher in conflict areas. In a multivariate regression framework, we exploit the 2008 spike in wheat flour prices to estimate differential effects on household food security - measured by calorie intake and the real value of food consumed - based on the level of conflict in the province where the household is located. We find robust evidence that households in provinces with higher levels of conflict experience larger declines in food security than households in provinces with lower levels of conflict. Therefore while conflict may not be the driving factor in overall levels of food insecurity in Afghanistan, it may limit the coping mechanisms available to households in the face of rising food prices. Gaining a better understanding of such linkages and knowing the spatial distribution of food insecurity can serve to inform policymakers interested in targeting scarce resources to vulnerable populations, for example, through the placement of strategic grain reserves or targeted food assistance programs.

This paper studies the impact of food insecurity on civilian–rebel interactions. We argue that food price volatilities affect the incentives of insurgent groups and their subsequent treatment of civilians. The hypotheses developed in this study are empirically evaluated across a battery of statistical models using monthly data from a sample of 112 first administrative districts in sub-Saharan Africa. The results show that increases in food insecurity substantially raise the likelihood of insurgent groups committing violence against civilians and that districts with a higher proportion of agricultural land are at greatest risk of civilian victimization by rebel groups during these episodes of food insecurity. The implications of this analysis suggest that the human impact of food insecurity does not simply relate to nutrition and questions of governance. Food price volatilities also incentivize the use of violence against civilians by non-state actors, which is a pertinent concern of human rights organizations and policymakers.

Seit der Nahrungsmittelpreiskrise 2007/08 ist die Volatilität von Nahrungsmittelpreisen wieder als wichtiges Thema in der politischen Diskussion aufgetaucht. Nicht nur die Beobachtung eines steigenden Preisniveaus, sondern auch der scheinbare Anstieg der Volatilität auf Schlüsselmärkten (vor allem Getreide) hat viele Studien sowohl auf konzeptioneller als auch auf empirischer Ebene ausgelöst. Da Menschen, insbesondere in Entwicklungsländern, unter hohen und instabilen Preisen leiden, ist diese Entwicklung als globales Problem und ein Haupthindernis zur Bekämpfung von Hunger und Mangelernährung erkannt worden. Diese Doktorarbeit hat das Ziel, zu der Debatte beizutragen, wie am besten mit Preisvolatilität auf Agrarmärkten umzugehen ist. Um einen umfassenden Überblick über Agrarpreisvolatilität, ihre Ursachen und die Möglichkeiten, betroffenen Marktteilnehmern sinnvoll zu helfen, zu geben, konzentriert sich diese Arbeit auf drei bedeutende Aspekte, welche die drei Hauptkapitel dieser kumulativen Dissertation bilden: Kapitel 2 hat das Ziel, die Frage, wie sich Volatilität seit der Nahrungsmittelpreiskrise 2007/08 entwickelt hat, robust zu beantworten. Generelle Unterschiede im Volatilitätslevel, der Volatilität der Volatilität und der Persistenz der Volatilität werden für ein Set von realisierten, GARCH-Modell basierten und impliziten Volatilitäten auf drei Agrarmärkten – Weizen, Mais und Sojabohnen – betrachtet. Darüber hinaus werden verbreitete Aussagen bezüglich des Anstiegs der Volatilität seit der Nahrungsmittelpreiskrise 2007/08 und weitere relevante Aspekte wie die Veränderung der Persistenz der Volatilität und die Quantifizierung des Anstiegs hinsichtlich einer robusten Schlussfolgerung geprüft. Kapitel 3 identifiziert die Treiber von Volatilität für verschiedene Ölsaaten und pflanzliche Ölmärkte. Das Kapitel liefert eine Untersuchung der gemeinsamen Effekte von fundamentalen Volatilitätstreibern und der Übertragungseffekte zwischen verwandten Märkten. Kapitel 4 stellt ein Set von verwandten Risikomaßen vor, um die detaillierte Struktur der Volatilität in Agrarmärkten zu charakterisieren. Diese Maße erlauben die Zerlegung einer allgemeinen Preisbewegung in "große" Veränderungen mit möglicherweise schwerwiegenden ökonomischen Konsequenzen und "normale" Veränderungen. Es werden zukunftsgerichtete Schätzer der Risikomaße abgeleitet, die die Erwartungen des Marktes über zukünftige Bewegungen der Rohwarenpreise aus aktuellen Optionspreisen extrahieren. Eine empirische Studie für wichtige Getreidemärkte demonstriert die Vorhersagekraft der impliziten Schätzer. Insgesamt zeigt die Doktorarbeit, dass Risikomanagement und die Abmilderung der Effekte erhöhter Preisvolatilität nur dann wirkungsvoll ist, wenn man sich bewusst ist, welche Agrarmärkte betroffen sind, mit welcher genauen Art von Preisrisiko man konfrontiert ist und somit welche Gruppe von Marktteilnehmern Schutz benötigt und wenn das Risiko frühzeitig erkannt wird, um hilfreiche Maßnahmen zu unternehmen. ; Food price volatility has re-emerged as an important topic of political discussion since the food price crisis of 2007/08. Not only the observation of increasing price levels but also their apparent increased volatility on key markets (most notably grains) has triggered many studies both at the conceptual and the empirical level. Since people suffer from high and unstable prices, especially in least developed countries, this development has been widely recognized as a global problem, and a major impediment to combating hunger and malnutrition. This thesis aims to contribute to the debate on how best to cope with agricultural commodity price volatility. To gain a comprehensive overview of agricultural price volatility, its causes, and potential ways to help affected market participants in a meaningful way, this thesis focuses on three major aspects that built the three main chapters of this cumulative dissertation: Chapter 2 aims to robustly answer the question of how volatility has developed since the food price crisis of 2007/2008. General differences in volatility level, volatility of volatility, and volatility persistence for a set of realized, GARCH model-based and implied volatilities are noted for three agricultural commodities – wheat, corn, and soybeans. Moreover, common statements regarding the increase of volatility since the food price crisis of 2007/2008 and further relevant issues such as changes in volatility persistence and quantification of the increase are analyzed in terms of a robust conclusion. Chapter 3 identifies drivers of volatility for several oilseed and vegetable oil markets. The chapter provides an investigation of the joint effects of fundamental volatility drivers and spillover effects between related markets. Chapter 4 introduces a set of related risk measures to characterize the detailed structure of volatility in agricultural commodity markets. These measures allow for a decomposition of overall price moves into "large" changes with potentially severe economic consequences and "normal" changes. Forward-looking estimators of the risk measures that extract market expectations about future commodity price moves from current option prices are derived. An empirical study on major grain markets demonstrates the forecasting power of the implied estimators. Overall, this thesis demonstrates that managing risk and mitigating the impacts of excessive price volatility can only be successful if one is aware of which commodity markets are affected, which specific kind of price risk one faces, and consequently which group of market participants needs protection, and if this risk is recognized early enough to undertake helpful measures.

Bangladesh has made remarkable progress in rice production and achieved self-sufficiency for feeding the people of Bangladesh. Total rice production in Bangladesh was 10.59 million tons in 1971 when population was 7.88 million, and increased to 38.72 million tons in 2020, which is three times more than previous production to feed her 170 million people. The growth of rice production (2.83%) was much faster than the growth of population (2.04%). In most recent days, market prices go up unexpectedly that poses threat to farmers and consumers, which is most embarrassing for the government and policy makers. Therefore, this research was recommended to find out the major drivers for rice price hikes in Bangladesh. Primary and secondary data were used in the analyses. The primary data were collected by conducting a telephonic survey and focus group discussion (FGD) and Key Informant Interview (KII). Secondary data were gathered from different organizations and the published sources. Suitable statistical and mathematical tools were employed to analyze the data. The growth rate of national rice production was always more than 2 percent in 1973-2000 and 2001-2020 while the growth rate over the period of 1973-2020 was 2.83 percent. To drive the growth of rice production upward, a package of intervention such as rapid spread of superior varieties, increment of irrigation areas under rice cultivation, adoption of climate resilient genotype, and better resource management and use of superior technologies, quality seeds and mechanization is required. During the two intervals of 2011-2015 and 2016-20, a substantial surplus of rice per capita was achieved. Almost 2 million tons remained surplus over the period 2009-2017 and more than 3 million tons over the years 2018 to 2020. The additional import of rice usually increased the national surplus and helped stabilize the market price of rice. Nominal price of rice increased, on average, at the rate of 4 to 5 percent whereas the real price decreased, on average, at the rate of 2 to 3 percent over the reference years (1972-2020). Even though the slope of nominal price in both T. Aman and Boro seasons was similar at all actor's level, adjustment of inflation in price of T. Aman paddy exhibits the higher market risk compared to that of Boro paddy. Cost of paddy cultivation was increasing at the rate of about 3 percent over the period of 2009-2020 while net profit (Tk/kg) was decreasing at the rate of about 8 percent over that period. The millers thought that they are the losers in rice processing business but they did not take the value of its by-products in their calculation. With valuation of by-products, millers usually made the profit per kg ranging from Tk. 4.6 in 2019 to 9.5 in 2017 in T. Aman while they made profit, from Tk. 4.7 in 2020 to 8.2 in 2018 in Boro season. Since market price of paddy usually exists below the procurement price, most of the farmers do not get the benefit of procurement price since government bought a few amount of paddy. However, farmers were happy to receive a good price of paddy in T. Aman, 2020. Historical trend of wholesale price was similar to that of procurement price of milled rice. The overall relationship between marketed surplus and price (figure 14) showed that someone might have power to regulate the determination of price in the market instead of market forces of supply and demand. Price spread reveals that midstream actors particularly millers, aratdars, and wholesalers harvested a super normal profit. In 2016, a reverse trend of price between Bangladesh and neighboring countries was observed. But almost a similar price trend appeared between 2017 and 2018. After that period, rice price in Bangladesh fell down lower than the import parity price of neighboring countries. However, the price increased in 2020 (figure 13). Public stock of rice drastically fluctuates and highly declines sometimes that gives an important signal of retention of minimum stock and increasing it to a minimum of 2500 thousand tons annually with a retention of at least 1250 thousand tons monthly. Highest prices in wholesale market of T. Aman were recorded in the month of January, February, June and October for the years 2016 through 2020 while in Boro, highest prices were recorded in January, March, September, October and December. Based on production situation, import decision, and domestic procurement, the value chain actors (millers and traders) make a gambling role to control price level of paddy and rice in the market. The indices during the period from 2016 to 2020, showed higher and unpredictable trend of paddy price from August to October. To control market prices during that period, the government should always maintain a large reserve of at least 12.5 lac tons of rice each month that would smoothen the impacts of large swings of rice prices. Almost all of the farmers used to sell major portion of marketable surplus within the first month of harvesting. The pattern of paddy sale changed substantially between the last two consecutive Boro seasons. In Boro 2020, farmers released their paddy stock a bit slowly in the market. The traders and millers, apprehending a panic of food shortage during pandemic, failure of rice procurement and import by the government, and speculation for higher price retained a part of their stockpiles of rice, which was the main reason for the price hike. The other reasons for price hike in rice market during 2020 includes supremacy and unequal competition of large millers and traders, delayed harmonization of data that led to the panic of shortage of paddy production, postponing rice import decision, increasing cost of paddy cultivation and rice processing, increasing number of seasonal traders and production loss from the disaster. Also the government stayed away from large intervention in the market during the stressed period. To overcome the seasonal price hikes; an up-gradation of paddy/rice procurement system is necessary. Government should declare separate minimum support prices (MSP) for fine and coarse grains of paddy and rice that will help farmers to get higher price at the harvesting time. The government should procure about 10 percent of total production with no less than 25 lac tons of rice so that intervention in the market can be made effectively. Government should retain at least 12 lac and 50 thousand tons of rice every month as buffer stock. Procurement price should be determined considering at least 20 percent profit over the production cost. Millers and traders should have trust on government data and should adjust their business strategy with the policy intervention of the government. Government should take more input support program so that all farmers get it like fertilizer subsidy. Concern ministry and department should have a policy to communicate with the rice millers and traders on regular basis so that a fair business environment prevails in this market. Finally, cost minimization strategy, intensive market monitoring, regulation for rice processing industries and timely government interventions are the important factors for ensuring stability in the market.