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"European leaders' biggest concern is Trump's potential return to the White House in 2025... plans for a 'dormant NATO' and advocating a shift from burden-sharing to 'burden-shifting,'" groaned an essay from the European Council on Foreign Relations, as NATO started to gear up for its 75th anniversary with Brussels painted blue, in reflection of the sanctity of the alliance, which President Biden has called sacred. One would be forgiven to notice the religious instinct behind something that is supposed to be an amoral alignment based purely on interest. "NATO 's shield against aggression 'will permit us to get on with the real business of government... of achieving a fuller and happier life for all our citizens,'" says Secretary Blinken. Atlanticist think tanks agreed. Incidentally, at the same time, NATO is planning to move executive decision making out of American political chaos, to Europe. Politico reported that officials hope to move the Ukraine Defense Contact Group "into the alliance's control, according to three European officials and a U.S. official with knowledge of the internal deliberations." The hope is "to finalize the move at the NATO leaders' summit in Washington in July," Politico wrote, adding that it would be better to institutionalize the process, in case Trump wins again. "With NATO's supreme allied commander, General Chris Cavoli, in charge, such a step could protect the structure from any political change that may result after the November elections," reported Bloomberg.But why should talks of "burden shifting" be a "concern?" Why will NATO have to "institutionalize" decision making regarding humanity's greatest questions of war and peace, and then make it undemocratic? These are not idle questions; the very future of NATO hinges on them. Everyone, from President John F. Kennedy onwards, has talked about "burden sharing." It hasn't worked, because thus far there was no actual policy guideline about achieving burden shifting in certain domains. This shouldn't be a concern, as burden shifting is purely a moderate compromise. Burden shifting in certain domains is a strategy in order to achieve burden sharing, which is the aim. Only those who want to free-ride should be concerned about burden shifting. Likewise the issue of institutionalizing is the original curse of NATO. Unless NATO assumes a supranational political role instead of a defense alliance — which has been, and is, a valid worry of conservatives — one is skeptical of how any institutionalizing will work, much less guard against democratic mandates. Consider a hypothetical. NATO established a command and coordination where Americans are working. A government back home wins election saying they would put a stop to all that. The NATO leadership proceeds to refuse civilian oversight, Congress or Presidential order and continues as is.Getting NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe to decide on matters of war and peace, instead of the elected President or the Congress, will in reality mean that NATO bureaucracy (and American forces operating under the said NATO bureaucracy) will continue working despite changes to the civilian leadership back home and despite a democratic mandate to the contrary. That's a worldview, I suppose. But it is no different than military leadership in Pakistan or Egypt. One either believes in democracy and civilian leadership, or one doesn't. One cannot, however, tout a system of governance of and by unelected military bureaucrats, and then claim that it is for an alliance to ostensibly defend democracy.Contrary to some, I don't think NATO should be disbanded completely, nor do I think it is even possible to do that. Realists are not utopians. And NATO was a decent alliance, for as long as it was doing what it is supposed to do. In that light, the strategy of a future Dormant NATO is predicated on three assumptions. One, as I wrote, the "NATO bureaucracy is increasingly a barrier in the path of reduced American commitment. It is self-sustaining and prone to push missions that are beyond NATO's core role and, at times, opposed to the domestic interests of the United States." Two, there is no "Europe" as a coherent political identity, in the sense that there is no common European interest. Interests and threat perceptions are based on primarily geography, offensive power, offensive intention, and proximity. Both NATO and the European Union exist as artificial constructs, maintained by American martial prowess. Without American military power, the chances of the EU collapsing under its own contradiction are relatively high. This also gives America a unique leverage to shape and reshape Europe to its advantage, and not get taken for a ride. Three, the expansion of NATO has led to a "curtailing" of American power. This third point is counterintuitive but crucial. As I wrote, "the larger the alliance, the bigger the constraint on the hegemon. Expanding an alliance would, in turn, consolidate the liberal-internationalist orthodoxy and multiply an imperial, self-sustaining and expanding bureaucracy, making it more difficult for a hegemon like the U.S. to act on its own interests as opposed to the interests of the group. The bigger the alliance and the worse Russo-American relations are, the better the deal for protectorate states." To put simply, the tail now has more power than the dog. One can argue that our "liberal internationalist" friends also believe in all these assumptions. They believe that democratic passions are opposed to their grand plan of social engineering through military power, which is why they want to take the power out of the hands of messy electoral processes. They absolutely believe that the European Union is an artificial construct, and a potential future trade rival to America, which is arguably why they want to ensure its survival and are worried about an American retrenchment. They have swallowed their own worldview that members of alliances are all equal, and it is not asymmetric, and there are no hegemons and protectorates.A Dormant NATO will put a stop to all further expansions, all out of area operations, and would focus strictly on military defense of those within the club. A Dormant NATO framework will delegate all further European military burden, from infantry to logistics, armor, to artillery, in the hands of European states, for them to pay and man the posts, under an overarching American nuclear umbrella. The Cold War style of garrisoning was obsolete by the 1990s, as understood by the troop drawdown from a total of around 300,000 to around 70,000 over a span of half a decade. For a country that is reaching its Weimarian fiscal cliff, and increasingly looking like a late stage Soviet Union — with a bloated national security bureaucracy on autopilot with no democratic control, anti-meritocratic academia, broken manufacturing base, and foreign interventions and overstretch based on promoting a craven secular theocracy at home and abroad — the time to reform NATO and redistribute a fiscal burden was yesterday. Dormant NATO is therefore the moderate compromise. It is time to let the 75 year old entity sleep more.

Poverty in the North EastThe North East, as everyone knows, was once a powerhouse of coal mining, shipbuilding, and manufacturing which fuelled the nation's growth and prosperity. However, the decline of traditional heavy industries, coupled with shifts in global trade patterns and technological advancements, decimated the region's economic foundation.The repercussions of this industrial decline have been felt far beyond the factory walls, affecting the social fabric of the North East. Unemployment soared, and the ripple effects of job losses exacerbated into poverty and deprivation. Now 54.6% of all homes in the North East are classed as deprived in one or more of the four dimensions used to measure deprivation in the UK. And the problem with deprivation is that it casts a long shadow. The poverty that the North East grapples with is intergenerational, and very difficult to combat.The problem with poverty:This is not complicated. Poverty is bad. Beyond the loss of potentially productive workers due to poor health and education, poverty had wide ranging social and psychological impacts. Not only does mental health suffer under poverty – which then circles back to reduced productivity, but social cohesion is harder to achieve. But the issue in the North East isn't in getting people to understand the problems with poverty – it's in understanding that poverty in the North East is repetitive. It is intergenerational.What is intergenerational poverty?Intergenerational poverty occurs when poverty persists from one generation to the next. Children born into deprived circumstances face barriers to accessing essential needs (such as stable housing) and opportunities (such as quality education) which constrains their prospects. In the North East Child Poverty Commission's most recent report, 35% of babies, children, and young people live in poverty, and 11% in very deep poverty. This helps perpetuate a cycle of poverty and marginalisation.Material poverty serves as a formidable barrier to upwards mobility. With factors such as a lack of stable housing, an inability to meet fundamental needs and one in ten households in the North East being classed as "food insecure", harming a child's growth and future wellbeing.Educational poverty, characterised by limited educational resources, feeds into lower academic achievement which limits future economic opportunities. Cultural poverty is a socially sensitive topic, as those referencing it could fall into the trap of blaming the poor for their conditions, but it is a crucial factor. When people face barriers to opportunities for a long time they might start to believe that they can't improve their lives. This feeling of hopelessness feeds into the younger generation by making their dreams feel unattainable and curbing their opportunities.These are just a few of the many limitations that are passed onto the next generation. The cascading effects of intergenerational poverty only serves to exacerbate inequality over time. A new approach to fighting poverty:If, as I think everyone should, you read the NECPC's report 'No Time to Wait', you begin to understand the scale of the problem facing those trying to fight poverty.The report itself makes for harrowing reading. Reading the words and experiences of those who deal with poverty every second of every day is eye-opening, and the plethora of statistics on the topic is  heartbreaking.Now, if you were part of a charity or organisation actively working to combat poverty on a daily basis, witnessing the potential of bright children being limited by circumstances beyond their control would likely be disheartening. Additionally, observing the limited impact of government policies in addressing these challenges would likely lead to high levels of frustration and disappointment.Which makes the solution proposed by these organisations understandable.Devolution, from the point of view of those calling for it, will finally allow these charities and organisations the power to make a real difference and help save the futures of hundreds of thousands of children.The dangers of devolution:The hope of the organisations calling for devolution is that giving more power to councils and regional bodies will result in the regional policy they want. However, expanding devolution by granting councils increased powers and authority could lead to a proliferation of politicians. While many politicians undoubtedly work with commendable intentions, their actions may become influenced not solely by the pursuit of fostering growth. Additional objectives such as securing re-election and upholding a consistently favourable public image may become the main focus of their work.More bureaucracy and politicians will not lead to the dramatic fall in poverty that these charities and companies desire. Instead, it will gum up the system, hindering the fight against poverty and further constrain the North East.This is all without mentioning the elephant in the room that in 2004, 77.93% of the North East voted against devolution and a regional assembly.Alternative solutions:There are alternative solutions to fighting poverty, rather than devolution.Local authorities and mayoral offices have an opportunity to collaborate. If the combined authorities of the North East pooled their funding to help finance a cross-sector initiative they could help fight poverty. By engaging charities, schools and even businesses a comprehensive plan to take on poverty from multiple angles can be drawn up. Then, the pooled funding from various local authorities and mayoral offices can be used to properly finance a cross sector comprehensive poverty action plan.Schools play a crucial role in addressing poverty. By collaborating with local authorities to provide the necessary resources and engaging with the business community, schools can facilitate work-based learning opportunities and mentorship programs that prepare students for the demands of the local economy.The involvement of charities can significantly enhance the reach and impact of any efforts to fight poverty. Charities in the North East have spent decades fighting poverty, generating  a deep understanding of the specific needs of vulnerable people and can provide targeted support and services. By collaborating with local authorities and businesses, charities can access additional resources and expertise to amplify their impact.The involvement of businesses is essential for sustainable poverty alleviation and economic growth. Businesses can contribute by creating job opportunities, providing training and skills development programs, and investing in local community initiatives.Ultimately, a cross-sector initiative to tackle poverty in the North East of England can lead to tangible benefits for the region's economy, bolstering the region's competitiveness and attractiveness for investment. Summary:Concerns over poverty, its ever-worsening condition and fears that more could become trapped in poverty are sound concerns that should be seeing wider attention and action. But the answer is not more devolution. The answer lies with a comprehensive plan, designed by experts in a cross-sector initiative to allow the North East to grow and flourish, without staying forever supported by the state, or becoming oversaturated with politicians.

As the United States plunges ever deeper into a fresh Middle East conflagration — this time fighting Iran-backed non-state actors, including Yemen's Houthis and Shiite resistance groups in Syria and Iraq — its closest allies from the EU and NATO stand divided.
These divisions reflect a long-standing failure of the EU member states and institutions to speak with "one voice" on the Middle East.
When the U.S. called for an international coalition to stop the Yemen-based Houthi militias attacks on the international shipping in the Red Sea, only a few European nations signed the joint statement: the UK, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark and Italy. Of that initial group, only Britain, Denmark, Netherlands, plus Greece joined as the European contingent of "Operation Prosperity Guardian."
Others like France, while condemning the Houthi attacks, expressed preference for an autonomous, European-led operation. Still others, like Spain, were skeptical of any involvement in any anti-Houthi action whatsoever.
So far, Britain has been the only navy to engage in actual strikes against the Houthis (so far, with limited success), as part of the U.S.-led operation. Meanwhile, EU defense ministers agreed to launch the EU-led "Operation Aspides" to help guarantee free navigation and the safety of commercial traffic — initially, under Italian command.
Securing maritime freedom is considered vital, as approximately 40% of EU trade with Asian and Middle Eastern countries passes through the Red Sea. But the precise mandate and rules of engagement for this mission remain unclear. The EU foreign ministers are supposed to decide on those questions at their meeting on February 19. The EU high representative for foreign affairs Josep Borrell, however, seems to have ruled out anything beyond defensive actions to protect ships and intercept the Houthi attacks, including taking part in U.S.-UK-led strikes against the Houthis or conducting their own offensive strikes.
Once the EU operation is set in motion, however, that distinction might become blurred. In an interview with the Italian newspaper La Repubblica, a top Houthi leader, Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, declared that Italy will "become a target" if it participates in attacks on the group. That prompted a swift response from Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, who insisted that Rome "will not be intimidated by the Houthi threats." Yet he was also careful to emphasize the planned mission's defensive nature. And it is notable that neither Italy nor the EU as a whole have followed Washington's lead in designating the Houthis as a terrorist organization.Reactions to the U.S. strikes against Iran's allies in Syria and Iraq — in response to the deaths of three U.S. troops caused by a drone attack on Jan. 29 — present a similarly fragmented picture. Borrell assessed those strikes as a "domino effect" resulting from the Israel-Hamas war. He called on "everybody should try to avoid that the situation becomes explosive." Britain, predictably, supported Washington's "right to respond to attacks" while condemning "Iran's destabilizing activity throughout the region."
Meanwhile, Poland's hawkish foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski emphasized that "Iran's proxies have played with fire for months and years, and it's now burning them." The European Parliament, meanwhile, in its resolution on the situation in Gaza adopted in mid-January, pointed to Iran's "aggressive actions and use of proxies as a means of deliberately destabilizing the region" as the principal cause of the escalation.
The rhetoric aside, there is no sign so far that the EU is gearing up to join the U.S. conflict with the Iran-backed "forces in Syria and Iraq, either militarily or through diplomatic support. There are good reasons behind such restraint: the open-ended nature of the U.S. commitment increases the risks of a direct U.S.–Iran clash. That, in turn, could incentivize Iran to move aggressively to obtain a nuclear weapon as an ultimate deterrent as it's already a de-facto nuclear threshold state.
Such a step would ruin for good any prospects for a nuclear agreement with Iran, a policy still promoted by the EU. In fact, as recently as mid-January, Enrique Mora, the political director of the European External Action Service, discussed the nuclear file with the Iranian chief negotiator Bagheri-Kani at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Also, increased instability in Iraq and Syria and a decimation of the Shiite militias there could also create conditions for a revival of ISIS, their sworn enemies, who have committed atrocities on European soil as well as across the Middle East and beyond. EU officials have been warning about the growing risks of terrorism in Europe as a spillover from the war in Gaza for some time now.
And that brings us back to the root cause of the European divisions on the Houthis, Syria, Iraq and Iran: diverging perspectives on Israel's campaign in Gaza. While all EU member states strongly condemned Hamas' pogrom, their reactions belie different priorities. Some countries, such as Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Germany, are closely aligned with Israel and therefore, privilege Israel's right to self-defense. However, others like Spain, Belgium, Ireland, Slovenia, and, to some extent, France, see the war in Gaza and the Israel-Palestine conflict more generally as a principal cause of the expanding mayhem in the Middle East. They find it increasingly problematic to compartmentalize the Gaza carnage, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the growing tensions between the U.S. and Iran-backed Shiite groups in Syria and Iraq.
They think that taking a more forceful action against the "resistance front" would reduce the pressure on Israel to agree to a ceasefire in Gaza.
It is unlikely that the ruling of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) imposing a number of measures on Israel on its conduct of war in Gaza will bridge the intra-European differences, despite the EU's professed commitment to international law. The EU emphasized that the ICJ rulings are binding and have to be implemented "fully, immediately and effectively."
Predictably, Ireland, Belgium, Spain and Slovenia issued statements to the same effect. Germany, despite its generally pro-Israeli position, joined them. France supported the ruling but failed to call for its implementation. The real actions, post-ICJ ruling, however, reflect the remaining deep divisions: a number of countries announced that they will suspend the funding of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), the principal humanitarian actor in Palestine, following the accusations against some of its workers for links with Hamas. Those include Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, Austria, Romania and the Baltic states.
Others, like France and Germany, said they'll wait for the results of the investigations on those alleged Hamas links, and still others, like Ireland, Denmark, Belgium, Luxembourg, Spain and Slovenia, pledged to continue the funding. Borrell, the EU's top diplomat, stressed that defunding UNRWA "would amount to collective punishment" of Palestinian civilians. To underscore the divisions further, the EU still failed to agree on sanctions against the violent Israeli settlers, due to the opposition from Hungary and Czech Republic, even though the U.S. has already announced that it will take that step.
It is, therefore, fair to expect that the EU and its member states will continue to muddle through, agreeing only on the lowest common denominator, further hobbling their capacity to act as relevant actors in the Middle East.

The Korean War ended more than 70 years ago, and a tense peace has reigned ever since on the Korean peninsula. The two Koreas have exchanged artillery fire, battled in the economic and diplomatic arenas, and even covertly dispatched spies to each other's territory. But the threats of a resumption of conflict, disproportionately coming from North Korea in recent years, have been rhetorical. The firepower of the South Korean military, backed by a U.S. defense pact, has deterred Pyongyang; the sheer number of soldiers in the North Korean army, backed by a small but operational nuclear arsenal, has deterred Seoul.But borders don't seem quite as inviolable as they once did. Russia has invaded Ukraine, Israel has sent forces into Gaza, and even Venezuela recently seemed to contemplate an incursion into Guyana. The United States, meanwhile, has recently attacked various targets abroad, from the Houthis in the Red Sea to Iranian commanders in Syria.Against this geopolitical backdrop, are the latest threats emanating from Pyongyang still rhetorical?North Korean leader Kim Jong Un sounds more and more embattled and belligerent. In power since the death of his father at the end of 2011, he has been constrained by a hemorrhaging economy and uncompromising adversaries abroad. The growth rate of the North Korean economy wasn't too bad at the beginning of his tenure. Since 2017, however, the arrow has simply gone downward, with a devastating 4.1 percent contraction in 2018, followed by a further 4.5 percent decline during the pandemic year of 2020. International sanctions have made North Korea dangerously dependent on China for trade, which explains in part Kim Jong Un's current interest in covering his bets by improving relations with Russia.Meanwhile, the two leaders that promised some form of engagement with Pyongyang—South Korea's Moon Jae-in and Donald Trump—are no longer in office. South Korea's current government is very cool toward engagement. Joe Biden, focused on a raft of other foreign policy challenges from Ukraine to Gaza, has not expressed much interest in expending political capital on a risky venture like negotiating with Pyongyang.Washington's failure to remain engaged with North Korea is the primary reason that longtime North Korea watchers Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker believe that Kim Jong Un has abandoned the default approach of more-or-less peaceful coexistence in favor of launching an attack against South Korea. In some ways, Kim is following the logic of Hamas, an illiberal force also in charge of a largely failed entity. Kim, too, perceives his adversaries as complacent, uninterested in any real negotiations, and vulnerable to a surprise attack. Presiding over an "open air prison" in Gaza, Hamas decided it had nothing left to lose. The North Korean leadership, in charge of an impoverished country with a horrific human rights record, may well have decided that it also has run out of options."The literature on surprise attacks should make us wary of the comfortable assumptions that resonate in Washington's echo chamber but might not have purchase in Pyongyang," Carlin and Hecker write in 38North. "This might seem like madness, but history suggests those who have convinced themselves that they have no good options left will take the view that even the most dangerous game is worth the candle."Carlin and Hecker don't have what the Israeli intelligence community possessed a year before the October 7 attacks, namely a detailed description of preparations to launch a surprise attack. They are relying on official North Korean statements eschewing reunification of the peninsula and a constitutional change that now identifies South Korea as an adversary rather than as tanil minjok ("one people, one blood"). This week, reports based on satellite images showed the destruction of Pyongyang's iconic Monument to the Three Charters for National Reunification, also called the Arch of Reunification, which Kim earlier referred to as "an eyesore," and called for its demolition.North Korea has also recently conducted a rash of missile tests, including one with a hypersonic warhead, as well as military drills near the maritime border that seem designed to provoke a response from the South. As sober analysts, Carlin and Hecker are not given to overstatement, so their warnings must be taken seriously.At the same time, the usual North Korean approach has been to make wild threats to get the attention of an otherwise indifferent U.S. government in order to pave the way for a fresh round of negotiations. Missile launches, nuclear tests, and promises to turn South Korea into a "sea of fire" have all, in the past, signaled not an interest in war but, perversely, a determination to restart peace talks with newly attentive adversaries. Also, Kim might be eyeing elections in South Korea where the pro-engagement opposition party is hoping to increase its parliamentary majority in the April elections and in the United States where Donald Trump is now running even or better against Joe Biden in the polls. Trump has long boasted of the 27 "love letters" he exchanged with the North Korean leader. Perhaps, Kim strategizes, the love could continue if Trump is reelected.Beware wishful thinking. Most analysts misinterpreted Vladimir Putin's warlike rhetoric and military preparations at the end of 2021 as merely a bid for Western attention and a better bargaining position at the negotiations table. Conventional notions about the deterrence of superior force—Israel, NATO, South Korea—may not apply in a world of increasingly volatile leaders and increasingly violated borders.Kim's closer relationship with Putin may well prove pivotal in North Korean calculations. Beijing has traditionally attempted to rein in Pyongyang because an overly provocative neighbor is not good for the Chinese economy in addition to boosting U.S. military presence in the region. Moscow, on the other hand, might be sending different messages, given Putin's more confrontational approach to the West. Just as the war in Gaza has proven a boon to the Kremlin, in that it has distracted attention and military hardware away from the European theater of operations, a conflict on the Korean peninsula would be an even greater draw on U.S. and European resources.In the late 1940s, Stalin was skeptical about the advantages of North Korea attacking South Korea. Kim Jong Un's grandfather, Kim Il Sung, eventually convinced Stalin otherwise and won Soviet support for the attack on the south that took place on June 25, 1950. Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, has indicated that he will visit North Korea "at an early date," his first trip there since 2000. Pundits and policymakers take note: Putin's visit might tip the balance one way or the other in North Korea's deliberations over war and peace.In the meantime, it's not too late for the United States and South Korea to offer Kim Jong Un an offramp from the conflict he has yet to initiate.

Taiwanese voters elected Vice President Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) as their next president on Saturday, which will be the third consecutive presidential win for the party and an indication voters want to stay the course — in policy and in current US-China-Taiwan relations.Whether it will result in heightened tensions between the island and mainland China, and Beijing and Washington, remains to be seen, and will likely be determined by the public actions and reactions by each party in the immediate days and weeks.Despite a late tightening of the presidential race between Lai and his main opponent, Hou You-ih of the Kuomintang (KMT), the candidate of the incumbent party prevailed with 40% of the vote in a three-way race that included Ko Wen-je of the Taiwanese People's Party.The failure of the two main opposition parties to unite on a joint ticket last fall paved the way for Lai's victory. While opposition campaign rhetoric painted a win for Lai as a vote for confrontation and conflict with China, enough Taiwanese voters opted to stick with the policies of outgoing president Tsai Ing-wen to give the DPP the unprecedented third term in office. Lai campaigned on a message of continuity with Tsai. In a popular campaign ad, Tsai and Lai were seen driving in a car together and then the outgoing president got out and let Lai get behind the wheel, saying to him, "You can drive better than me." Despite Tsai's somewhat low overall approval ratings, the appeal to staying on the same course was effective enough to secure Lai the win. Lai's victory is unlikely to trigger a major crisis right away, but it will ensure that cross-Strait dialogue will not resume. The lack of dialogue between Taiwan and China has coincided with and contributed to a period of increasing Chinese pressure and deteriorating relations between the United States and China. As a result, the tensions that have built up between Taiwan and China and between the U.S. and China over the last eight years will remain high for the foreseeable future. The Biden administration was already adding to those tensions last week with the announcement that it would be sending a delegation of former high-level officials to Taiwan after Saturday's election. This move was unwelcome to Beijing, and the Chinese government condemned the decision, saying that the administration should "stop sending wrong signals to 'Taiwan independence separatist forces and refrain from interfering in elections in the Taiwan region in any form."For their part, the Chinese government had been putting additional pressure on Taiwan in the weeks leading up to the election with threats of punitive trade measures. The DPP triumph is not in itself a prelude to war, but it could encourage hardliners in Washington to pursue more aggressive and provocative policies toward China while making the Chinese use of coercive tactics more likely. As the Quincy Institute's Michael Swaine said in response to the election result, Lai's victory "will likely worsen the negative dynamics" in the U.S.-China relationship that he and his colleague James Park discussed in their recent QI brief. Depending on how Lai manages relations with the U.S. in the coming years, there is a danger that his efforts to strengthen ties with Washington will cause a backlash from China that brings all parties closer to a new crisis. Lai has expressed a desire to see a Taiwanese president visit the White House sometime in the future. If Lai were to pursue such a visit, and if the Biden administration indulged him in this, that would almost certainly be met with significant Chinese punitive measures, whether in the form of economic warfare, military drills, or some combination of the two. More modest efforts to build up the relationship with the U.S. may not have such dramatic consequences, but they will contribute to the ongoing strains in U.S.-Chinese relations. The old status quo between the U.S. and China has been steadily eroding for at least the last eight years, and this has accelerated over the last three years under Biden. The bipartisan consensus in Washington in favor of containment and rivalry and ill-conceived gestures of "support" for Taiwan have fed a cycle of threat inflation and overreaction in both countries. Officials in both governments tend to assume the worst about the intentions of the other side, and there are few safeguards in place in the event of a crisis. Cross-Strait relations and relations between the U.S. and China have both suffered significantly since then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taipei in 2022. Following that and the spy balloon incident, it took almost all of last year for the Biden administration to stabilize the relationship between Washington and Beijing. That has left Taiwan measurably worse off under the "new normal" conditions that have been created. It has also undermined the peace in East Asia that has endured for more than 40 years. It is against this backdrop of growing mutual mistrust and hostility that we need to view the implications of the Taiwanese election results. The U.S. can expect and should prepare for at least four more years of heightened tensions and worsening relations with China.That is why it is imperative that the U.S. approach become much more cautious and responsible than it has been in a long time. The U.S. not only needs to avoid taking provocative actions like extending an explicit security guarantee to Taiwan or restoring normal diplomatic ties, but it must also seek to offer credible assurances to Beijing that it has no interest in encouraging what the Chinese government considers separatism.Reassurance is as important as, and possibly more important than, making deterrent threats. As Bonnie Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss, and Thomas Christensen recently explained in their article in Foreign Affairs, "For effective deterrence, both threats and assurances must be credible." The U.S. has no trouble in convincing other states that it is prepared to use force. The difficulty is in getting other states to believe that the U.S. can be trusted to leave well enough alone. The U.S. should take care in the coming months not to make any moves that suggest that it is upgrading the relationship with Taiwan. The post-election delegation that Biden is sending should be the last one of its kind for a long time. The Chinese government already perceives a gap between the Biden administration's rhetoric and its actions, so it is crucial that this gap not get any wider than it already is. The administration also needs to communicate privately to the incoming president that he should not take any actions that are likely to antagonize Beijing. Given the political incentives in an election year to engage in gratuitous China-bashing, that may be a tall order, but it is what needs to happen if the U.S. and Taiwan are going to navigate the year ahead without serious incident.

Yesterday, a bluesky discussion focused on whether the Federation of Planets was essentially the UN with US domination or something else.  While I have written far more here about Star Wars, I have actually used Star Trek more in my teaching, and I have watched far more Trek (there is simply many more hours of Trek content).  Plus having written about NATO (the ebook is less than $18!), I have a few views on the matter.To start, what is the United Federation of Planets and what is Starfleet?  The Federation is an alliance of planets, more so than it is a true federation a la the US.  Not even a confederation like Canada.  How so?  The planets still have their own foreign policies--we see plenty of meetings of diplomats from members to various proceedings.  Note, diplomats, not just leaders or representatives.  Just as I always like to make fun of Texas secessionists for having their embassy in Texas when it should be in Washington, DC or London or some place beyond the territory of the "country" it is representing, federal units (with the funky exception of Quebec) don't have embassies and ambassadors.  This is a short cut, a bit of evidence, for the basic idea that the units in the federation are more independent, more akin to nation-states than they are to units in a federal country.  So, yeah, the name is deceptive.  Starfleet adds to the confusion because it is the military (despite denials) of the Federation.  This would make the Federation appear more like a country if it had a monopoly--if Starfleet was the only armed force within the federation.  However, I seem to remember various planets within the fed having their own armed starships including Vulcan.  So, despite the name, the Federation is not akin to a single country.  It is easier to dispense with the idea that the Federation is the European Union.  How much of the series and movies are about economic regulations and subsidizing agriculture?  Ok, more directly, the European Union, despite many attempts, does not really have a military, and it does not have a common foreign policy.  The EU forces that have shown up in Bosnia and elsewhere only do so (this will be brutal, sorry) after NATO has done all of the heavy lifting. It was NATO that ended the Bosnia conflict, it was NATO that compelled Serbia to let peacekeepers into Kosovo, it is NATO deterring the Russians from attacking the Baltics, and so on.  In trade negotiations, the EU acts as a single actor and with great power.  In other stuff?  Not so much. Which leaves the United Nations and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.  Clearly, from the name and from Gene Roddenberry's idealism, the United Federation of Planets is just a spacey UN, right?*  The stuff above that makes the Federation not a country but many countries or nation-states works toward the UN idea--a bunch of different sovereign entities constantly negotiating, sending diplomats hither and yon to settle all kinds of issues.  The big questions are what is the Federation for and what is Starfleet for?  The classic answer is collective security: to deter aggression by any member against any member by providing assurances that any target of aggression will receive assistance from the rest of the community.  Until Alexander Wendt has his way, the entire imagination of the role of the UN is focused on members.  The UN is a universal organization...on Earth--the only countries that are not in the UN are Taiwan and ... depending on how you count the Vatican and Palestine and various unrecognized separatist folks.  The key things about this notion of collective defense are that no member is excluded from its protection, and it is not aimed at any particular aggressor.  The UN does not have a standing military, but has "sent" massive interventions when the membership have agreed, to thwart North Korea's aggression in 1950 (because the Soviet diplomats were stupidly boycotting the UN Security Council at the time) and Iraq's in 1990-91.  In both cases, it was really the US military and some allies under a UN banner in the former and nearly so in the latter.  One could argue that Starfleet is mostly a Terran/American endeavor and its activities are simply under a federation banner.  But again, the aim is at members.  In the original Trek, maybe some of it was aimed at fostering peace among members, but for most of Trek's history, Starfleet was aimed at protecting its members from non-members.Which gets us to NATO, which is not really a collective security organization, but a collective defense organization.  It is not so much aimed at protecting Greece from Turkey, but all of the members from external threats--mostly the Soviet Union/Russia but also terrorism, maybe China, etc.  "An attack on one is an attack on all", Article V, the heart of the alliance, is aimed at outsiders. All of NATO's military endeavors have been on the border of or entirely outside the territory of its members.  Kind of like how much of Starfleet's activities are at the borders, patrolling nearby neutral zones, or going beyond to intervene, despite the Prime Directive, in non-members.  How many episodes are akin to the Kosovo effort?  A boodle. Of course, the parallel is not perfect, since Starfleet is a coherent military organization from the academy to the command staff and in between, which NATO is not.  Its captains may buck orders (Kirk more so than others, but all of them did so), but not because their home country/planet had different rules than the Federation for operating in place x or y.  That is, the Steve and Dave book on the Federation would focus far less on the political systems of members states and far more on the personalities of individual ship captains, compared to our work on NATO (our book and articles focused mostly on whether countries had coalition governments or not, what kinds of coalitions they had, and personality of presidents and prime ministers only kicked in if there were no coalitional bargaining).Of course, there is no perfect parallel between the Federation and an existing Terran international organization, but given the focus of the Federation and the activities of Starfleet, NATO appears to be the closest, and I didn't even discuss enlargement.   *  I'd argue that Babylon 5 comes a lot closer to that, but that is a post for another day.   

Ten years after Chinese President Xi Jinping announced China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Kazakhstan and Indonesia, a new connectivity initiative was unveiled with great fanfare by the United States, India, and the Arab Gulf and European countries during the G20 meeting in New Delhi earlier this month.Since the announcement was made without the presence of the Russian and Chinese presidents, it has stirred conflicting interpretations. Some see it as a potential alternative to BRI, while others, pointing to the failure of similar projects backed by Western powers in the past, view it as a paper tiger.Details are still missing, but the project's ambition is enormous. It follows a transregional approach as noted by the White House statement: "Through the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), we aim to usher in a new era of connectivity with a railway, linked through ports connecting Europe, the Middle East, and Asia."The idea of this corridor dates back to 2021 and has also been discussed as part of the I2U2 group that includes India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the United States. Like the BRI, its design vision follows the corridor's logic. This is no surprise. "Corridorization" is the most significant spatial manifestation of infrastructural capitalism and geo-economics since the beginning of this century.Corridorization, which is part of the thriving "minilateralism" space, could be viewed as contradictory because middle powers are trying to navigate between two hardening geopolitical blocs. But the ongoing process of reshaping the global supply chain connectivities created by decades of globalization could make it a viable proposition.The BRI and the IMEC seem to share many similar goals. But there are also critical geographical differences. Most importantly, the new initiative features India, which has never been part of the BRI, as a central cross-regional player amid rearranged geo-imaginations.Each of the parties to the new initiative comes with its own perspective and interest.For the United States, the I2U2 and IMEC serve as platforms for infrastructure investment, bringing together Middle Eastern and South Asian partners and providing an alternative to Chinese projects. Washington sees this approach as an opportunity to encourage its regional partners to take a more active and independent role in shaping the region's future, allowing the United States to reduce its own resource investment while maintaining its presence and influence.For the UAE and Saudi Arabia, the goal is to strengthen their increasingly diversified and multi-networked economic diplomacy covering a wider geography. Both countries are active members of the BRI, and their cooperation with China is growing. Apart from burgeoning trade, they are dialogue partners of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and will soon become full members of the expanded BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Both countries are trying to expand their strategic autonomy and vying to become influential regional and international players. Getting involved in multiple new minilateral groupings is a key ingredient of their approach to strengthening their middle power status.As Saudi Arabia opens to the world with a tilt towards China, the UAE has found its new unique selling point in connectivity and multi-alignment. While diverging approaches toward geostrategic and regional issues, particularly China's rising power and global influence, remain a concern, Gulf Arab countries' participation in U.S.-led initiatives reflects their new penchant for equidistance amid U.S.-China competition.Indeed, the United States might see the IMEC as a vehicle to counter China's growing influence in the region. In the Middle East, however, competition and convergence are mixed and less black and white than the increasing U.S.-China bipolarity would suggest. If the United States expects this to be a "counter BRI" move for the region, it will likely be disappointed. Competition in the Indian Ocean could escalate, but potential synergies and convergencies should allow for some degree of mutual accommodation.India, which the United States treats as an "indispensable partner," has been showcasing a good template of multi-alignment for others to follow. It is a member of the Quad and I2U2, both comprising the United States, and it's also a member of BRICS and SCO, with China in both, despite New Delhi's feud with Beijing over border issues. The IMEC adds another thread to its longstanding multi-alignment policy, as it highlights the other connectivity corridor that India is promoting — the International North South Transport Corridor — with Iran and Russia. Together, these projects add value to India's development story and its boast that it is the fastest growing economy in the world.The new economic corridor also envisions the potential addition of Israel. This should be seen as a step in the renewed U.S. efforts to expand the Abraham Accords by facilitating the normalization of Israeli-Saudi relations. This form of regional engagement also allows Israel to manage tensions with the United States, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia in the wake of the politics of a far-right coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.For Israel and the United States, expanding the Abraham Accords, especially to include Saudi Arabia, remains a top priority despite Riyadh's insistence on linking the normalization of relations to progress on the two-state solution. There are tentative indications that Netanyahu might agree to some concessions on the Palestinian front, even at the cost of his right-wing coalition falling apart, in order to capitalize and sustain Israel's broader regional integration.For China, which will soon host the first in-person BRI summit in Beijing after major COVID-19 shutdowns, IMEC throws up a challenge and an opportunity. It could dismissively treat the IMEC like the United States has done with the BRI. The other option, as indicated soon after the G20 meeting, is to demonstrate its openness to support multidirectional connectivity, even if it is not part of this corridor, as long as such projects are "open, inclusive, and form synergy," and do not become "geopolitical tools."The last piece in this new connectivity saga would be Europe, especially the Eastern Mediterranean countries. The IMEC is a welcome development because the "Global Gateway," the European Union's own connectivity project, has not gained adequate momentum because European diplomats in Brussels are hesitant about multi-alignment strategies and transregional corridors.While the IMEC is an economic-diplomatic-security interplay, its prospects will depend on its ability to promote connectivity and translate its economic potential into commercial success. Critics have already pointed out that the initiative may be unviable in terms of profit. However, it could also be argued that there are virtues other than economic efficiency. In a world of de-risking and politically induced supply chain shifts, the new corridor could be viewed as a tool for promoting strategic resilience, friendshoring, and tech cooperation, especially for middle powers.

Each country has to take its advantages for economic development and competitiveness on the international scene. For Ukraine, one of them is significant reserves of chernozem, which cover almost half of its territory. Chernozem is the most fertile soil, and therefore the conditions for the development of the agro-sector in our country are quite favorable. Nowadays, the agrarian sector already plays an important role in the domestic economy, but the potential is not fully used. An analysis of export tariff quotas on certain types of products for EU countries has shown insufficient use of them. This indicates the presence of free niches on the market that could be taken by small business representatives. However, given the problems faced by businessmen, there is a need for help from the state to overcome them. The agrarian sector plays an important role in the economy of our country and includes a wide range of products of plant and animal origin. Most of the domestic industry representatives produce grain crops, taking leading positions on an international scene. The domestic consumer market is difficult to name volumetric, however, even it is not completely filled with Ukrainian products. Small businesses could occupy vacant niches and satisfy domestic demand, but in the long term external demand as well as. However, they need help from government bodies or specialized non-profit organizations since there are certain problems with the legal framework, attraction of financing, etc. Analyzing the dynamics of the development of the agricultural sector of our country, it should be noted its comparative stability. Since 2013, due to the crisis, domestic enterprises have been experiencing difficult times, which is reflected in their financial results, output, sales figures, etc. However, in general, the agrarian sector survived and reported on steady growth; only in 2015, there was a slight decrease in the results compared to 2014. It should be noted that the positive trend was due to products of plant origin since livestock breeding reduced. By 2013, the production of meat and eggs was growing, volumes of dairy were fluctuating, and volumes of wool were declining altogether. Since the beginning of the next year, the situation has changed dramatically: producers of eggs and milk have born the biggest losses. The meat industry has lost only 30 thsd. tons, however, its production structure has changed somewhat: inflation had affected the consumer market, and buyers began to prefer poultry meat because it is cheaper. It is the opportunity to refocus on bird breeding has allowed entrepreneurs not only to save themselves from significant losses but also to recover from the crisis earlier than others. The evidence of this is seen by a slight increase in output in 2016, while other industry players continued to report on reducing outputs, in some cases slowed down its pace. In the sphere of crop production situation is somewhat different: almost all subsectors report about growth, and producers of grains and pulses have collected the biggest output since independence and indeed in the history of Ukraine - 66 088 thsd. tons. The entrepreneurs engaged in growing fruits and berries reduced output, although it is difficult to say that this is a consequence of the crisis since earlier their volumes fluctuated each year. Tariff quotas, which Ukraine has got for export of products to the European Union countries, could become a tool to increase livestock profitability. However, for our entrepreneurs, a mandatory licensing has become a barrier, and a significant part of domestic meat does not meet international requirements. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, in 2016, we were given quotas for delivery of 40 thsd. tons of pork, 12 thsd. tons of beef, 1.5 thsd. tons of lamb, but no delivery of products took place. The quota for the supply of chicken was used partly - 24.6 thsd. tons from possible 36 thsd. tons. At the same time, the quota for the supply of wheat (950 thsd. tons), corn (400 thsd. tons), barley (250 thsd. tons). sugar (20 thsd. tons) and some other positions was used completely. Compared to 2015, the situation has almost not changed, only dairy producers have improved their position since in 2016 they already received quality certificates, but still the majority of the quotas they received remained free. The non-use of the quotas is a lost benefit both for entrepreneurs and for Ukraine as a whole. Therefore, state bodies have to help to facilitate activities in these directions. Given that some quotas are small in volume and large companies are not interested in them, it is advisable to involve small businesses in their use. Agrarian support programs exist in every developed country, because they are aware of the importance of industry development. In these programs, special attention is paid to small and medium-sized businesses, because they have certain benefits, such as flexibility, innovation, etc. The budget for 2017 was set at UAH 3.7 bln to support the development of farmers, including 2.2 bln from the general fund and 1.5 bln from the special one. Support is provided in the following areas: - financial incentives for agrarians - UAH 1 473 mln; - reimbursement of interest on loans - UAH 300 mln; - assistance to producers of animal products - UAH 210 mln; - provision of new plantings of grapes, berries and young gardens - UAH 75 mln; - holding of events (fairs, congresses, etc.) in the agrarian sector - UAH 55 mln; - concessional lending of farms - UAH 25 mln. At the same time, EUR 400 mln was given by the European Investment Bank for projects in the agrarian sector. Thus, it is possible to state the presence of certain programs and the interest of state bodies in the development of the agrarian sector. However, the limited financial resources are reflected on the quality of these programs - they are not able to fully meet demand and cover all areas of business. Therefore, it is advisable to analyze the existing measures and those carried out in the developed countries of the world and, based on this, select the most effective instruments of both economic and administrative influence that will accelerate the development of small enterprises and the agrarian sector in general. But the restrictions on measures of the World Trade Organization should be taken into account, which affect the volumes of production or product prices and do not lead to increase in resource efficiency. ; Проанализированы состояние и динамика развития аграрного сектора, оценено его влияние на общее экономическое положение Украины. Определены основные причины диспропорционального развития растениеводства и животноводства и предложены меры по ликвидации дестимулирующих факторов, сдерживающих темп роста сектора. Исследована роль малого бизнеса в количественных и качественных показателях отечественных агропредприятий. Охарактеризована действующая политика поддержки бизнеса и предоставлены предложения по ее совершенствованию ; Проаналізовано стан і динаміку розвитку аграрного сектору, оцінено його вплив на загальне економічне становище України. Визначено основні причини диспропорційного розвитку рослинництва і тваринництва та запропоновано заходи щодо ліквідації дестимулюючих факторів, які стримують темп зростання сектору. Досліджено роль малого бізнесу в кількісних і якісних показниках вітчизняних агропідприємств. Охарактеризовано діючу політику підтримки бізнесу та надані пропозиції щодо її вдосконалення.

Each country has to take its advantages for economic development and competitiveness on the international scene. For Ukraine, one of them is significant reserves of chernozem, which cover almost half of its territory. Chernozem is the most fertile soil, and therefore the conditions for the development of the agro-sector in our country are quite favorable. Nowadays, the agrarian sector already plays an important role in the domestic economy, but the potential is not fully used. An analysis of export tariff quotas on certain types of products for EU countries has shown insufficient use of them. This indicates the presence of free niches on the market that could be taken by small business representatives. However, given the problems faced by businessmen, there is a need for help from the state to overcome them. The agrarian sector plays an important role in the economy of our country and includes a wide range of products of plant and animal origin. Most of the domestic industry representatives produce grain crops, taking leading positions on an international scene. The domestic consumer market is difficult to name volumetric, however, even it is not completely filled with Ukrainian products. Small businesses could occupy vacant niches and satisfy domestic demand, but in the long term external demand as well as. However, they need help from government bodies or specialized non-profit organizations since there are certain problems with the legal framework, attraction of financing, etc. Analyzing the dynamics of the development of the agricultural sector of our country, it should be noted its comparative stability. Since 2013, due to the crisis, domestic enterprises have been experiencing difficult times, which is reflected in their financial results, output, sales figures, etc. However, in general, the agrarian sector survived and reported on steady growth; only in 2015, there was a slight decrease in the results compared to 2014. It should be noted that the positive trend was due to products of plant origin since livestock breeding reduced. By 2013, the production of meat and eggs was growing, volumes of dairy were fluctuating, and volumes of wool were declining altogether. Since the beginning of the next year, the situation has changed dramatically: producers of eggs and milk have born the biggest losses. The meat industry has lost only 30 thsd. tons, however, its production structure has changed somewhat: inflation had affected the consumer market, and buyers began to prefer poultry meat because it is cheaper. It is the opportunity to refocus on bird breeding has allowed entrepreneurs not only to save themselves from significant losses but also to recover from the crisis earlier than others. The evidence of this is seen by a slight increase in output in 2016, while other industry players continued to report on reducing outputs, in some cases slowed down its pace. In the sphere of crop production situation is somewhat different: almost all subsectors report about growth, and producers of grains and pulses have collected the biggest output since independence and indeed in the history of Ukraine - 66 088 thsd. tons. The entrepreneurs engaged in growing fruits and berries reduced output, although it is difficult to say that this is a consequence of the crisis since earlier their volumes fluctuated each year. Tariff quotas, which Ukraine has got for export of products to the European Union countries, could become a tool to increase livestock profitability. However, for our entrepreneurs, a mandatory licensing has become a barrier, and a significant part of domestic meat does not meet international requirements. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, in 2016, we were given quotas for delivery of 40 thsd. tons of pork, 12 thsd. tons of beef, 1.5 thsd. tons of lamb, but no delivery of products took place. The quota for the supply of chicken was used partly - 24.6 thsd. tons from possible 36 thsd. tons. At the same time, the quota for the supply of wheat (950 thsd. tons), corn (400 thsd. tons), barley (250 thsd. tons). sugar (20 thsd. tons) and some other positions was used completely. Compared to 2015, the situation has almost not changed, only dairy producers have improved their position since in 2016 they already received quality certificates, but still the majority of the quotas they received remained free. The non-use of the quotas is a lost benefit both for entrepreneurs and for Ukraine as a whole. Therefore, state bodies have to help to facilitate activities in these directions. Given that some quotas are small in volume and large companies are not interested in them, it is advisable to involve small businesses in their use. Agrarian support programs exist in every developed country, because they are aware of the importance of industry development. In these programs, special attention is paid to small and medium-sized businesses, because they have certain benefits, such as flexibility, innovation, etc. The budget for 2017 was set at UAH 3.7 bln to support the development of farmers, including 2.2 bln from the general fund and 1.5 bln from the special one. Support is provided in the following areas: - financial incentives for agrarians - UAH 1 473 mln; - reimbursement of interest on loans - UAH 300 mln; - assistance to producers of animal products - UAH 210 mln; - provision of new plantings of grapes, berries and young gardens - UAH 75 mln; - holding of events (fairs, congresses, etc.) in the agrarian sector - UAH 55 mln; - concessional lending of farms - UAH 25 mln. At the same time, EUR 400 mln was given by the European Investment Bank for projects in the agrarian sector. Thus, it is possible to state the presence of certain programs and the interest of state bodies in the development of the agrarian sector. However, the limited financial resources are reflected on the quality of these programs - they are not able to fully meet demand and cover all areas of business. Therefore, it is advisable to analyze the existing measures and those carried out in the developed countries of the world and, based on this, select the most effective instruments of both economic and administrative influence that will accelerate the development of small enterprises and the agrarian sector in general. But the restrictions on measures of the World Trade Organization should be taken into account, which affect the volumes of production or product prices and do not lead to increase in resource efficiency. ; Проанализированы состояние и динамика развития аграрного сектора, оценено его влияние на общее экономическое положение Украины. Определены основные причины диспропорционального развития растениеводства и животноводства и предложены меры по ликвидации дестимулирующих факторов, сдерживающих темп роста сектора. Исследована роль малого бизнеса в количественных и качественных показателях отечественных агропредприятий. Охарактеризована действующая политика поддержки бизнеса и предоставлены предложения по ее совершенствованию ; Проаналізовано стан і динаміку розвитку аграрного сектору, оцінено його вплив на загальне економічне становище України. Визначено основні причини диспропорційного розвитку рослинництва і тваринництва та запропоновано заходи щодо ліквідації дестимулюючих факторів, які стримують темп зростання сектору. Досліджено роль малого бізнесу в кількісних і якісних показниках вітчизняних агропідприємств. Охарактеризовано діючу політику підтримки бізнесу та надані пропозиції щодо її вдосконалення.

Türkiye'nin cari açık problemi ve bunun yarattığı finansal riskler ülkemizdeki iktisat politikası tartışmalarının ana çerçevesini oluşturmaktadır. Bununla beraber cari açığın sürdürülebilirliğinin denge reel döviz kurları ile ilişkisini inceleyen oldukça az sayıda çalışma bulunmaktadır. Bu tez söz konusu alana katkıda bulunmayı amaçlamaktadır. Birinci bölümde Türkiye için 1998-2016 dönemi için çeyrek yıllık veriler kullanılarak cari hesap açıklarının sürdürülebilirliği araştırılmıştır. Çalışma kapsamında Husted (1992) tarafından önerilen cari hesabın dönemler arası dengesi modeli kullanılarak ihracat ve ithalat hacimlerinin GSYH'ye oranları arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisi incelenmiştir. Bunun için Otoregresif Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Model (ARDL) ve Doğrusal Olmayan Otoregresif Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Model (NARDL) eşbütünleşme yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. ARDL eşbütünleşme testi sonucunda ithalat değişkeni katsayısının 1'den küçük olması Türkiye'de cari açığın zayıf formda sürdürülebilir olduğunu göstermektedir. NARDL eşbütünleşme testi sonucunda ithalat artış ve azalışlarının ihracat üzerinde kısa vadede asimetrik etkileri bulunmazken uzun vadede asimetrik etkilerin varlığı tespit edilmiştir. Buna göre ithalatta artışın ithalatta düşüşe göre ihracat üzerinde daha büyük etkiye neden olduğu görülmüştür. İkinci bölümde Türkiye için 1998-2016 dönemi için çeyrek yıllık verilerle ARDL ve NARDL eşbütünleşme modeliyle ihracat ve ithalat taleplerinin döviz kuru ve gelir esneklikleri tahmin edilmiştir. ARDL eşbütünleşme testi sonucuna göre ihracat ve ithalat taleplerinin reel döviz kuru esnekliklerinin mutlak değer toplamı 1'den büyük olduğundan Türkiye için Marshall-Lerner Koşulu sağlanmaktadır. Öte yandan ihracat ve ithalat taleplerinin gelir esnekliklerinin fiyat esnekliklerinden büyük olduğu varsayımı doğrulanmıştır. Houthakker-Magee Bilmecesi olarak adlandırılan ithalatın yurtiçi gelir esnekliğinin ihracatın yurtdışı gelir esnekliğinden daha büyük olması durumu Türkiye için doğrulanmaktadır. Böyle bir durumda yurtiçi ve yurtdışı gelir düzeylerinin eşit oranda artış göstermesi dış ticaret açığında artışa neden olmaktadır. İhracat talebi denkleminin NARDL eşbütünleşme tahmini sonucunda reel döviz kurunun düşüş gösterdiği durumdaki esnekliği yükseliş gösterdiği durumdaki esnekliğine göre daha büyük olduğundan Türk Lirası'nın değer kaybetmesinin değer kazandığı duruma göre ihracat üzerinde daha önemli bir etkiye neden olduğu söylenebilir. İthalat talebi denkleminin NARDL eşbütünleşme tahmini sonucunda reel döviz kurunun artış gösterdiği durumdaki esnekliği, düşüş gösterdiği durumdaki esnekliğine göre daha büyük olduğundan Türk Lirası'nın değer kazanmasının değer kaybettiği duruma göre ithalat üzerinde daha önemli bir etkiye neden olduğu söylenebilir. Üçüncü bölümde 1998-2016 dönemi için yıllık veriler kullanılarak Arrelano-Bond Fark GMM ve Blundell-Bond Sistem GMM panel verisi tahminleriyle 33 gelişmekte olan ülke için tasarruf-yatırım dengesinin belirleyicileri olan değişkenlerle sürdürülebilir cari denge düzeyi hesaplanmıştır. 1999-2001 ve 2010-2016 yılları arasında güncel cari hesap dengesi sürdürülebilir cari hesap dengesinin altında kalarak Türkiye için cari açığın sürdürülemez boyutta olduğunu göstermiştir. Ardından Türkiye için Temel Denge Döviz Kuru (FEER) hesaplanmıştır. 1998 yılının 1. çeyreği ile 2016 yılının 2. Çeyreği arasındaki dönem için hesaplanan FEER'e ait endeks güncel Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru Endeksi REER ile karşılaştırıldığında REER'in 2001-2004 yılları arasında aşırı değerli olduğunu buna karşın 2010-2016 yılları arasında ise aşırı değersiz olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu durum 2001-2004 dönemi için Türk Lirası'nın aşırı değerli olduğunu, 2010-2016 dönemi içinse aşırı değersiz olduğunu göstermektedir. ; The current account deficit problem of Turkey and the financial risks it creates constitute the main framework of the economic policy discussions in our country. However, there are very few studies examining the relationship between the sustainability of the current account deficit and the equilibrium real exchange rates. This thesis aims to contribute to this field. In the first section, the sustainability of current account deficits was investigated by using quarterly data for the 1998-2016 period for Turkey. Within the scope of the study, the cointegration relationship between the ratios of export and import volumes to GDP was examined by using the intertemporal approach to current account proposed by Husted (1992). For this Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model, ARDL and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model NARDL cointegration approaches were used. As a result of the ARDL cointegration test the import variable coefficient is less than 1 shows that the current account deficit in Turkey is sustainable in a weak form. As a result of the NARDL cointegration test, while import increases and decreases do not have asymmetric effects on exports in the short term, the existence of asymmetric effects in the long term has been determined. Accordingly, it was observed that the increase in imports had a greater effect on exports than the decrease in imports. In the second section, the exchange rate and income elasticities of export and import demands are estimated using ARDL and NARDL cointegration approaches with quarterly data for 1998-2016 period. According to the ARDL cointegration test result, since the sum of the real exchange rate elasticities of the export and import demands in absolute value is greater than 1, the Marshall-Lerner Condition is satisfied for Turkey. On the other hand, the assumption that the income elasticity of export and import demand is greater than the price elasticity has been confirmed. The fact that the domestic income elasticity of imports is greater than the foreign income elasticity of exports, which is called the Houthakker-Magee Puzzle, is confirmed for Turkey. In such a case, the equal increase in domestic and foreign income levels causes an increase in the foreign trade deficit. As a result of the NARDL cointegration estimation of the export demand equation, it can be said that the depreciation of the Turkish Lira has a more significant effect on exports than the case in which it appreciates, since the elasticity of the real exchange rate in the case of a decrease is greater than that in the case of an increase. As a result of the NARDL cointegration estimation of the import demand equation, since the elasticity of the real exchange rate in the case of an increase is greater than the elasticity in the case of a decrease, it can be said that the appreciation of the Turkish Lira has a more significant effect on imports than the case of depreciation. In the third section, using the annual data for the period 1998-2016, the sustainable current account balance level is calculated with the variables that are the determinants of the savings-investment balance for 33 developing countries, using the Arrelano-Bond Difference GMM and Blundell-Bond System GMM panel data estimates. The current account balance between 1999-2001 and 2010-2016 remained below the sustainable current account balance, showing that the current account deficit for Turkey is unsustainable. Then, FEER (Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate) was calculated for Turkey. When the index of FEER, calculated for the period between the first quarter of 1998 and the second quarter of 2016, is compared with the current REER index (Real Effective Exchange Rate), REER is overvalued between 2001-2004, but undervalued between 2010-2016.

This book is derived from the abridged version of papers presented in 3rd Silkroad Congress / 14th ADAM International Social Sciences Conference organized jointly by Ankara Center for Thought and Research (ADAM), Istanbul Sabahattin Zaim University (IZU), National University of Uzbekistan (NUUz) and Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA). ; Turkey has increasingly paying much attention to its relationship with the all over the world, especially in Middle East, Africa and Asia. Turkey was the first country to recognize Uzbekistan's independence on 16 December 1991. Since that date, relations between Uzbekistan and Turkey have been developing dynamically in the commercial-economic and financial spheres. Many co-operation agreements have been signed between the two states. The positive aspect of Turkey's renewed interest to foster relations with all over the world recently is, partly demonstrated by the strong interest and action taken by the countries that wanted to improve relations Turkey as a strategic partner. There are not only commercial and economic relations between Uzbekistan and Turkey, but also cultural relations. In recent years, great importance has been attached to the development of tourism sector and bilateral cultural relations. Uzbekistan's historical tourism potential and rich cultural heritage attract the attention of Turkish citizens. For this reason, the development of cooperation in the tourism sector plays an important role in the approach of the peoples of the two countries. It is necessary to show all efforts to develop mutually beneficial relations in economic, cultural and humanitarian fields. For the bilateral relations to be developed more actively, both countries have the necessary resources and great potential. As known, the Turkish – Uzbek relations is very old and multi-dimensional which includes economic and trade, social and cultural, diplomatic, development and humanitarian etc. In this part, a brief review of the diplomatic and economic relations is given. This part is expected to give a highlight with respect to the historical and relations and, hence, would help the urgency to revive relations in the future and the importance of the conference towards that goal. The cultural and artistic relations between Turkey and Uzbekistan are very old. The common characteristics of the two countries are their history, culture and art that based on the same ancestry. Within the framework of the agreements between the two countries, not only commercial and economic relations but also cultural and artistic relations are developing are developing between Turkey and Uzbekistan. The purpose of this book and organized congress has an aim to contribute to the developing relations. --From editors ; OPPORTUNITIES OF IMPLEMENTING THE WORLD INNOVATION POLICY EXPERIENCE IN PROVIDING SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN UZBEKISTAN -- TURKEY AND TURKIC REPUBLICS: AN ANALYSIS FROM ECONOMIC GROWTH PERSPECTIVE -- THE MAIN FORMS OF INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBALIZATION -- ÖZBEK ÖĞRENCILER ÖZELINDE TÜRKIYE'DEKI ULUSLARARASI ÖĞRENCILER YA DA ÇOK YÖNLÜ ELÇILER -- DEVELOPMENT EVENTFUL TOURISM ON THE SILK ROAD -- NORMATIVE-LEGAL BASES OF ECOLOGICAL-ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN UZBEKISTAN -- SLAM BİLİM TARİHİ: EMPİRİK BİR ÇALIŞMA -- THE DYNAMIC DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN TURKEY AND UZBEKISTAN: COOPERATION BASED ON TRUST AND FRIENDSHIP -- INTELLECTUAL POTENTIAL OF CREATIVE SOCIETY -- DEVELOPING SOCIOECONOMICAL AND CULTURAL RELATIONS BETWEEN UZBEKISTAN AND TURKEY -- THE USING OF TURKEY'S SCHEMES PRIORITY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF INDUSTRY OF UZBEKISTAN -- TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TOURISM INDUSTRY IN THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN -- MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL UZBEKISTAN – TURKEY RELATIONSHIP AND COOPERATION IN THE SPHERE OF TOURISM -- ÜLKELER ARASI İŞBİRLİKLERİNİN GELİŞTİRİLMESİNDE İSLÂMÎ FINANSIN ÖNEMİ -- DEVELOPMENT OF NATIONAL TOURISM IN UZBEKISTAN -- INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMY IN UZBEKISTAN -- UZBEKISTAN: REFORMS IN EDUCATION AS A FACTOR OF MODERNIZATION OF THE COUNTRY -- ECONOMIC MODERNIZATION - THE WAY TO INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT -- INVESTMENTS IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AND WAYS OF IMPROVING THEIR EFFICIENCY -- FAMILY BUSINESS AND ITS DEVELOPMENT -- TURKISH EXPERIENCE IN INCREASING COMPETITIVENESS IN EXPORT AND THE EFFECTIVE WAYS OF USING THEM -- WAYS TO ENSURE INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT IN UZBEKISTAN -- MODERN BANKING SYSTEM: A GUARANTEE OF DEVELOPMENT OF COUNTRY'S EXPORT POTENTIAL -- FOOD SECURITY IN UZBEKISTAN -- THE USE OF MODERN METHODS TO INCREASE THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF THE PLANT PROTECTION SYSTEM IN AGRICULTURE -- IMPROVING THE METHODOLOGY OF FINANCIAL RESULTS IN TOURISM COMPANIES -- TARGETED PROGRAMS OF BALANCED DEVELOPMENT OF TERRITORIES AS A FACTOR OF INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT -- MODELS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL SELF-GOVERNMENT AND THE DECENTRALIZATION EXPERIENCE: AN INSTITUTIONAL APPROACH -- INCREASING COMPETITIVENESS BASED ON INNOVATIVE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (IN CHINESE CASE) -- VALUE OF CREATIVE TOURISM IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE PRIORITY DIRECTIONS OF THE TOURISTIC INDUSTRY IN UZBEKISTAN -- URBANIZATION AND ITS CURRENT STATE -- TECHNOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION AS A FACTOR OF DEVELOPMENT -- THE ECONOMY OF UZBEKISTAN -- LABOR THEORY OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN MODERN ECONOMY -- INDICATORS OF POLITICAL SYSTEM STABILITY ASSESSMENT -- THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF HANDICRAFT ENTREPRENEURSHIP DEVELOPMENT IN UZBEKISTAN -- GOVERNMENT CHARGES FOR PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT -- INFRASTRUCTURE AS A DRIVER OF DEVELOPMENT -- INVESTMENT IN REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES -- THE ROLE AND VALUE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES IN DEVELOPMENT OF TOURIST INDUSTRY IN UZBEKISTAN -- PRIORITY DIRECTIONS OF SUPPORTING EMPLOYMENT POPULATION IN LABOR -- INCREASE OF COMPETITIVENESS AND EXPORT-ORIENTED REGION: EXPERIENCE OF TURKEY -- INCREASING COMPETITIVENESS OF COUNTRY BY SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE EMPLOYMENT -- SOME FEATURES OF THE FORMATION OF VALUE-ORIENTATED EDUCATION IN UNIVERSITIES -- THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TEACHERS' TEACHER LEADERSHIP ROLES AND ORGANIZATIONAL COMMITMENT LEVELS -- STUDYING THE EXPERIENCE OF IMPROVING THE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE BUDGET REVENUES OF TURKEY -- INNOVATIONS – AS AN IMPORTANT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FACTOR -- PRINCIPLES OF THE TERRITORIAL STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT OF UZBEKISTAN -- CIVIL - LAW PROBLEMS OF PRELIMINARY CONTRACT ACCORDING TO THE LEGISLATION OF THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN -- INCREASING THE COUNTRY'S COMPETITIVENESS: CURRENT STATE AND PROSPECTS -- THE ROLE OF PUBLIC SECTOR IN INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT -- THE IMPORTANCE OF USING BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGIES IN DIGITAL ECONOMY -- THE ESSENCE OF INVESTMENT POTENTIAL AND INVESTMENT FIELDS REGULARITIES IN ECONOMY -- ON THE QUESTION OF THE REVIVAL OF THE GREAT SILK ROAD, AND THE TOPONYM "GREAT SILK ROAD" ON THE TERRITORY OF TASHKENT -- SOME COMMENTS ON THE "COTTON CASE" REPRESSION CONDUCTED IN UZBEKISTAN -- PROBLEMS OF STUDYING INTELLIGENCE IN THE WORLD PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE -- FROM THE HISTORY OF RELATIONS BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ASIAN KHANATES AND THE OTTOMAN TURKS (XIX. CENTURY) -- COOPERATION AGREEMENT ON CULTURAL COOPERATION BETWEEN THE REPUBLIK OF UZBEKISTAN AND THE REPUBLIK OF TURKEY -- ORTA ASYA HANLIKLERI VE OSMANLI DEVLETI ARASINDEKI ILISKILERDE TICARET YOLLARININ ÖNEMİ -- OSMANLI'DA VAKIF KERVANSARAYLAR -- THE HISTORY OF THE ASIAN COUNTRIES IN THE TURKESTAN COLLECTION -- PAN-TURKIC IDEA OF JADID MOVEMENT AND ITS REFLECTION IN ARCHIVAL DOCUMENTS -- CLASSIFICATION OF WORLD MANUSCRIPTS SOURCE STUDY OF MAVARDI PRODUCT "AHKОM" GENERAL CHARACTERISTIC OF THESIS -- S'HOQXON TO'RA JUNAYDULLO XO'JA O'G'LI IBRAT –FOUNDER OF PRINTING HOUSE OF NAMANGAN -- HOCA MUHAMMED PARSA'NIN "FESLÜ'L-HİTAB" ESERİNDE HANEFİLİK VE MATURİDİLİK -- THE LOGIC OF ABU NASR AL-FARABI IN THE REFLECTION OF THE HISTORY OF ISLAM -- MAHBÛBU'L KULÛB'UN HİTABET/RETORİK DEĞERİ ÜZERİNE -- RELIGIOUS TOLERANCE AS A FACTOR IN SUSTAINABILITY OF SOCIETY -- MAVERAÜNNEHİR ÂLİMLERİNDEN EBU ZEYD ED-DEBÛSÎ VE İBNÜ'L-MÜNZİR EN-NİSABÛRÎ'NİN HİLAF İLMİNE KATKILARI -- GELENEKTEN GELECEĞE MÜSLÜMAN ZİHİN DÜNYASININ YENİDEN İNŞASI VE EĞİTİM -- UZBEKISTAN IS THE LAND OF INTER-RELIGIOUS TOLERANCE -- TÜRKIYE ÖZBEKISTAN ARASINDAKI SOSYO-KÜLTÜREL İLİŞKİLERİN GELİŞTİRİLMESİNDE SEMERKAND HAVZASININ ÖNEMİ -- THE ROLE OF HOLY BUKHARA ON THE GREAT SILK ROAD -- ÖZBEKİSTAN'IN DİNİ VE KÜLTÜREL HAYATINDA NAKŞBENDÎLİK VE HÜSEYNİYYE KOLU -- THE INTENTION – A CHOICE OR THE DOCTRINE OF ELECTION IN MAVARDI PRODUCT « ALAHKOM-AS-SULTONIYA VA-L-VALOYOT AD-DINIYA » ; 1

The strategic goal of Ukraine's integration into the EU and increasing the global competitiveness of the domestic economy necessitate the overcoming of the structural disadvantages inherent in the domestic model of the economy. It has been stated that the formation of a qualitative structure of the national economy is now crucial for developed countries of the world. They compete in approaches and related tools for building a future economy in the midst of the dramatic technological changes caused by the fourth industrial revolution. It has been noted that the economic system formed at the national level in Ukraine is characterized by weak participation of the state in the world economy. And to find out the level and quality of this participation, we should consider the international ratings in which Ukraine is represented. Among the significant number of them, three global indexes have been considered, which also reflect the structural tendencies in the economic system. It is noted that the rating of the state's competitiveness is based on the Global Competitiveness Index, which determines the appropriate level of welfare of the population, returns on investments and characterizes the potential for economic growth in the long run. For the analysis of the state of regulatory regulation, the conditions of operation of enterprises throughout the cycle of their life, including their creation, conduct of business, foreign trade activity, taxation, etc. are investigated. The Economic Freedom Index is also defined, which is an instrument for in-depth analysis of economies around the world. The article states that during the years of Ukraine's independence, at the state level, the goals of the need to implement technological, structural and institutional reforms in the national economy have been repeatedly declared at the national level in order to increase productivity, increase the proportion of high-tech industries in the structure of GDP, quality of life of the population and, ultimately, competitiveness the state and its regions in the global economy. It is noted that according to international ratings and comparisons, Ukraine is in a low position in the world economy. This suggests that economic reforms that were declared at different times in the state were ineffective. This also applies to the experience of conducting structural economic policy, which dates back to the first years of Ukraine's independence. It is emphasized that the range of government measures for economic development is rather broad, but their analysis allows us to conclude that the state's influence on the economy is insufficient to qualitatively change its structure. Although the general mechanisms of the government are clearly defined, there is a lack of specificity regarding the priorities of sectoral development, taking into account the current economic situation. ; Стратегическая цель интеграции Украины в ЕС и повышение глобальной конкурентоспособности отечественной экономики обусловливают необходимость преодоления структурных недостатков, присущих отечественной модели экономики. В статье указано, что в настоящее время формирование качественной структуры национальной экономики имеет решающее значение для развитых государств мира. Они соревнуются в подходах и соответствующих инструментах по развитию экономики будущего в условиях кардинальных технологических изменений, обусловленных четвертой промышленной революцией. Отмечено, что сложившаяся на национальном уровне в Украине экономическая система характеризуется слабой участием государства в мировом хозяйстве. А для выяснения уровня и качества этого участия следует рассмотреть международные рейтинги, в которых представлена Украина. С между значительного их количества, рассмотрены три глобальные индексы, в том числе отражают структурные тенденции в экономической системе. Отмечено, что рейтинг конкурентоспособности государства строится на основе Индекса глобальной конкурентоспособности, который определяет соответствующий уровень благосостояния населения, доходов от инвестиций и характеризует потенциал роста экономики в долгосрочной перспективе. Для проведения анализа состояния нормативно-правового регулирования исследуются условия функционирования предприятий в течение всего цикла их жизнедеятельности, включая их создание, ведение бизнеса, осуществление внешнеэкономической торговой деятельности, налогообложения и тому подобное. Определяется также Индекс экономической свободы, что есть инструментом для углубленного анализа экономик во всем мире. В статье указано, что за годы независимости Украины на государственном уровне неоднократно декларировались цели о необходимости воплощения технологических, структурных и институциональных преобразований в национальной экономике с целью роста производительности труда, повышения удельного веса высокотехнологичных производств в структуре ВВП, качества жизни населения и в конечном итоге конкурентоспособности государства и его регионов в глобальной экономике. Отмечено, что по международным рейтингам и сравнениями, Украина занимает низкие позиции в мировой экономике. Это свидетельствует о том, что экономические реформы, которые декларировались в разное время в государстве были малоэффективны. Также это касается в том числе опыта проведения структурной экономической политики, которая берет свое начало с первых лет независимости Украины. Отмечено, что спектр правительственных мер по экономическому развитию является достаточно широким, однако их анализ позволяет сделать вывод о недостаточности государственного влияния на экономику, чтобы качественно изменить ее структуру. Хотя общие механизмы правительства выписано четко, однако не хватает конкретики относительно приоритетов отраслевого развития, учитывая текущую экономическую ситуацию. ; Стратегічна мета інтеграції України у ЄС та підвищення глобальної конкурентоспроможності вітчизняної економіки зумовлюють необхідність подолання структурних недоліків, які притаманні вітчизняній моделі економіки. У статті зазначено, що нині формування якісної структури національної економіки має вирішальне значення для розвинених держав світу. Вони змагаються у підходах та відповідних інструментах щодо розбудови економіки майбутнього в умовах кардинальних технологічних змін, зумовлених четвертою промисловою революцією. Зазначено, що сформована на національному рівні в Україні економічна система характеризується слабкою участю держави в світовому господарстві. А для з'ясування рівня та якості цієї участі слід розглянути міжнародні рейтинги, в яких представлена Україна. З поміж значної їх кількості, розглянуто три глобальні індекси, які в тому числі відображають структурні тенденції в економічній системі. Відмічено, що рейтинг конкурентоспроможності держави будується на основі Індексу глобальної конкурентоспроможності, який визначає відповідний рівень добробуту населення, прибутків від інвестицій та характеризує потенціал зростання економіки у довгостроковій перспективі. Для проведення аналізу стану нормативно-правового регулювання досліджуються умови функціонування підприємств протягом усього циклу їх життєдіяльності, включаючи їх створення, ведення бізнесу, здійснення зовнішньо-торговельної діяльності, оподаткування тощо. Визначається також Індекс економічної свободи , шо є інструментом для поглибленого аналізу економік у всьому світі. У статті зазначено, що за роки незалежності України на державному рівні неодноразово декларувалися цілі щодо необхідності втілення технологічних, структурних та інституційних перетворень у національній економіці з метою зростання продуктивності праці, підвищення питомої ваги високотехнологічних виробництв в структурі ВВП, якості життя населення і в кінцевому підсумку конкурентоспроможності держави та її регіонів у глобальній економіці. Відмічено, що за міжнародними рейтингами та порівняннями, Україна посідає низькі позиції в світовій економіці. Це свідчить про те, що економічні реформи, які декларувалися в різні часи в державі були малоефективні. Також це стосується у тому числі досвіду проведення структурної економічної політики, яка бере свій початок з перших років незалежності України. Наголошено, що спектр урядових заходів щодо економічного розвитку є досить широким, однак їх аналіз дозволяє зробити висновок про недостатність державного впливу на економіку, щоб якісно змінити її структуру. Хоча загальні механізми уряду виписано чітко, однак не вистачає конкретики щодо пріоритетів галузевого розвитку, враховуючи поточну економічну ситуацію.

The strategic goal of Ukraine's integration into the EU and increasing the global competitiveness of the domestic economy necessitate the overcoming of the structural disadvantages inherent in the domestic model of the economy. It has been stated that the formation of a qualitative structure of the national economy is now crucial for developed countries of the world. They compete in approaches and related tools for building a future economy in the midst of the dramatic technological changes caused by the fourth industrial revolution. It has been noted that the economic system formed at the national level in Ukraine is characterized by weak participation of the state in the world economy. And to find out the level and quality of this participation, we should consider the international ratings in which Ukraine is represented. Among the significant number of them, three global indexes have been considered, which also reflect the structural tendencies in the economic system. It is noted that the rating of the state's competitiveness is based on the Global Competitiveness Index, which determines the appropriate level of welfare of the population, returns on investments and characterizes the potential for economic growth in the long run. For the analysis of the state of regulatory regulation, the conditions of operation of enterprises throughout the cycle of their life, including their creation, conduct of business, foreign trade activity, taxation, etc. are investigated. The Economic Freedom Index is also defined, which is an instrument for in-depth analysis of economies around the world. The article states that during the years of Ukraine's independence, at the state level, the goals of the need to implement technological, structural and institutional reforms in the national economy have been repeatedly declared at the national level in order to increase productivity, increase the proportion of high-tech industries in the structure of GDP, quality of life of the population and, ultimately, competitiveness the state and its regions in the global economy. It is noted that according to international ratings and comparisons, Ukraine is in a low position in the world economy. This suggests that economic reforms that were declared at different times in the state were ineffective. This also applies to the experience of conducting structural economic policy, which dates back to the first years of Ukraine's independence. It is emphasized that the range of government measures for economic development is rather broad, but their analysis allows us to conclude that the state's influence on the economy is insufficient to qualitatively change its structure. Although the general mechanisms of the government are clearly defined, there is a lack of specificity regarding the priorities of sectoral development, taking into account the current economic situation. ; Стратегическая цель интеграции Украины в ЕС и повышение глобальной конкурентоспособности отечественной экономики обусловливают необходимость преодоления структурных недостатков, присущих отечественной модели экономики. В статье указано, что в настоящее время формирование качественной структуры национальной экономики имеет решающее значение для развитых государств мира. Они соревнуются в подходах и соответствующих инструментах по развитию экономики будущего в условиях кардинальных технологических изменений, обусловленных четвертой промышленной революцией. Отмечено, что сложившаяся на национальном уровне в Украине экономическая система характеризуется слабой участием государства в мировом хозяйстве. А для выяснения уровня и качества этого участия следует рассмотреть международные рейтинги, в которых представлена Украина. С между значительного их количества, рассмотрены три глобальные индексы, в том числе отражают структурные тенденции в экономической системе. Отмечено, что рейтинг конкурентоспособности государства строится на основе Индекса глобальной конкурентоспособности, который определяет соответствующий уровень благосостояния населения, доходов от инвестиций и характеризует потенциал роста экономики в долгосрочной перспективе. Для проведения анализа состояния нормативно-правового регулирования исследуются условия функционирования предприятий в течение всего цикла их жизнедеятельности, включая их создание, ведение бизнеса, осуществление внешнеэкономической торговой деятельности, налогообложения и тому подобное. Определяется также Индекс экономической свободы, что есть инструментом для углубленного анализа экономик во всем мире. В статье указано, что за годы независимости Украины на государственном уровне неоднократно декларировались цели о необходимости воплощения технологических, структурных и институциональных преобразований в национальной экономике с целью роста производительности труда, повышения удельного веса высокотехнологичных производств в структуре ВВП, качества жизни населения и в конечном итоге конкурентоспособности государства и его регионов в глобальной экономике. Отмечено, что по международным рейтингам и сравнениями, Украина занимает низкие позиции в мировой экономике. Это свидетельствует о том, что экономические реформы, которые декларировались в разное время в государстве были малоэффективны. Также это касается в том числе опыта проведения структурной экономической политики, которая берет свое начало с первых лет независимости Украины. Отмечено, что спектр правительственных мер по экономическому развитию является достаточно широким, однако их анализ позволяет сделать вывод о недостаточности государственного влияния на экономику, чтобы качественно изменить ее структуру. Хотя общие механизмы правительства выписано четко, однако не хватает конкретики относительно приоритетов отраслевого развития, учитывая текущую экономическую ситуацию. ; Стратегічна мета інтеграції України у ЄС та підвищення глобальної конкурентоспроможності вітчизняної економіки зумовлюють необхідність подолання структурних недоліків, які притаманні вітчизняній моделі економіки. У статті зазначено, що нині формування якісної структури національної економіки має вирішальне значення для розвинених держав світу. Вони змагаються у підходах та відповідних інструментах щодо розбудови економіки майбутнього в умовах кардинальних технологічних змін, зумовлених четвертою промисловою революцією. Зазначено, що сформована на національному рівні в Україні економічна система характеризується слабкою участю держави в світовому господарстві. А для з'ясування рівня та якості цієї участі слід розглянути міжнародні рейтинги, в яких представлена Україна. З поміж значної їх кількості, розглянуто три глобальні індекси, які в тому числі відображають структурні тенденції в економічній системі. Відмічено, що рейтинг конкурентоспроможності держави будується на основі Індексу глобальної конкурентоспроможності, який визначає відповідний рівень добробуту населення, прибутків від інвестицій та характеризує потенціал зростання економіки у довгостроковій перспективі. Для проведення аналізу стану нормативно-правового регулювання досліджуються умови функціонування підприємств протягом усього циклу їх життєдіяльності, включаючи їх створення, ведення бізнесу, здійснення зовнішньо-торговельної діяльності, оподаткування тощо. Визначається також Індекс економічної свободи , шо є інструментом для поглибленого аналізу економік у всьому світі. У статті зазначено, що за роки незалежності України на державному рівні неодноразово декларувалися цілі щодо необхідності втілення технологічних, структурних та інституційних перетворень у національній економіці з метою зростання продуктивності праці, підвищення питомої ваги високотехнологічних виробництв в структурі ВВП, якості життя населення і в кінцевому підсумку конкурентоспроможності держави та її регіонів у глобальній економіці. Відмічено, що за міжнародними рейтингами та порівняннями, Україна посідає низькі позиції в світовій економіці. Це свідчить про те, що економічні реформи, які декларувалися в різні часи в державі були малоефективні. Також це стосується у тому числі досвіду проведення структурної економічної політики, яка бере свій початок з перших років незалежності України. Наголошено, що спектр урядових заходів щодо економічного розвитку є досить широким, однак їх аналіз дозволяє зробити висновок про недостатність державного впливу на економіку, щоб якісно змінити її структуру. Хоча загальні механізми уряду виписано чітко, однак не вистачає конкретики щодо пріоритетів галузевого розвитку, враховуючи поточну економічну ситуацію.

Changes in the global economy are increasingly accelerating and deepening. This work invites you to read and appreciate them through the performance of its main protagonists: transnational corporations and national States.The two types of organizations keep a relationship that is ambivalent: they repel and confront but at the same time they prove to need each other.The features of the link define what has been called "late capitalism" since J. Habermas. The tension knot between the two types of organizations is today the feverish rate of reproduction of capital and the ensuing battles waged by transnational corporations in order to expand their markets and concentrate ownership and control of the means of production in order to feed the process indefinitely.During the second half of the twentieth century, a recipe was introduced in Latin America to promote the autonomous development of different sub-regions, which were reported to have been compromised by the actions of transnational corporations. Following this recipe were designed companies with participation or under the state promotion to compete with transnational corporations. While the initiatives failed again and again, some recent policy orientations lead the author to wonder about their viability. In this sense, the evolution of the global system suggests that such political projects are impossible to fulfill.What about the reasons that prevent the creation and management of companies under political guidelines? At first, technological waves are replacing products, services, processes and productive activities and thus expel from the markets the same populations that the economic system claims peremptorily as consumers and users. National states -which technocratic fantasies even today regard as anachronistic beings-reappear on the international scene, trying to bear the internal social cost of these segregations. Thus, paradoxically and as far as they can, they must feed back to the same system. It is a restorative task that cannot be done without transnational corporations, but must count on them.In particular, developing country states make a commitment in the only possible way that they can do so in order to be predictable: through detailed inter-governmental regulations, under the so-called "free trade agreements". These treaties, usually bilateral, are joining and converging laboriously. Its regulations, embedded in a multilateral support still in force, allow national states and transnational corporations to meet their mutual expectations under conditions of economic belligerence, which can only be achieved through unprecedented strategic and operational flexibility on both sides.As a result of their confrontation or cooperation, depending on the issues involved, these actors are changing among themselves as they interact in multiple networks of increasingly complex and integrated systems. It is then mutual relationships that are redefining at all time their respective entities.Is it possible to conjecture about the historical sense of the current trend? At the moment it should be noted the increasing uncertainty generated by the adverse effects of the global system when its territorial spread in the developed world is already well known. And there are also warnings about potential climatic events whose occurrence would be uncontrollable. In this picture the exacerbation of connectivity seems contraindicated. Hence the overcoming challenge: the reconversion of public and private organizations so that they can support themselves in interrupting external connections, when they have to be rebuilt and having the suitability to operate in the transition even without such connections. ; Las transformaciones en la economía global son cada vez más aceleradas y profundas. Este trabajo invita a leerlas y apreciarlas a través del desempeño de sus principales protagonistas: las empresas transnacionales y los Estados nacionales.Los dos tipos de formaciones mantienen entre sí una relación ambivalente: se repelen y confrontan pero a la vez demuestran necesitarse recíprocamente.Las características del vínculo definen lo que desde J. Habermas se denomina "capitalismo tardío". El motivo central de la tensión entre ambos tipos de formaciones es hoy día el ritmo febril de reproducción del capital y las consiguientes batallas que libran las empresas transnacionales con el objeto de ampliar sus mercados y concentrar la propiedad y el control de los medios de producción para poder realimentar dicho proceso indefinidamente.Durante la segunda mitad del siglo xx se difundió en América Latina una receta destinada a promover el desarrollo autónomo de distintas subregiones, que según se advirtió estaba comprometido por la acción de las empresas transnacionales. Siguiendo esta receta fueron diseñadas empresas con participación o promoción estatal para competir con las empresas transnacionales. Si bien las iniciativas fracasaron una y otra vez, algunas orientaciones políticas recientes llevan al autor a preguntarse por su viabilidad. En tal sentido, la evolución del sistema global indica que semejantes proyectos políticos resultan de imposible cumplimiento.¿Cuáles son entonces los motivos que en el capitalismo tardío impiden la creación y gestión de empresas políticamente condicionadas? En primer lugar, las oleadas tecnológicas van sustituyendo productos, servicios, procesos y actividades productivas y de ese modo expulsan de los mercados a las mismas poblaciones que el sistema económico reclama perentoriamente como consumidores y usuarios. Los Estados nacionales –que las fantasías tecnocráticas hasta hoy mismo reputan como entes anacrónicos- reaparecen en la escena internacional, procurando cargar con el costo social interno de esas segregaciones. Así, paradójicamente y hasta donde puedan, deben realimentar al mismo sistema. Es una tarea reparadora que no puede prescindir de las empresas transnacionales, sino que ha de contar con ellas.En particular, los Estados de países en desarrollo asumen el compromiso de la única forma posible que pueden hacerlo para que se les reconozca previsibilidad: a través de minuciosas regulaciones intergubernamentales, encuadradas bajo los denominados "tratados de libre comercio". Son tratados, usualmente bilaterales, que se van ensamblando y convergiendo laboriosamente. Sus regulaciones, enancadas sobre un soporte multilateral todavía vigente, permiten que los Estados nacionales y las empresas transnacionales acoten sus expectativas mutuas dentro de condiciones de aguda beligerancia económica, lo que sólo puede lograrse mediante una inédita flexibilidad estratégica y operativa de uno y otro lado.Como resultado de su confrontación o cooperación, según sean las cuestiones en juego, dichos actores van modificándose entre sí al interactuar en un entramado de múltiples redes de redes cada vez más complejas e integradas. Son entonces las relaciones mutuas las que están redefiniendo a toda hora a sus respectivas entidades.¿Se podrá conjeturar sobre el sentido histórico de la tendencia en curso? Por el momento habría que tomar nota de la creciente incertidumbre generada por los efectos adversos del sistema global cuando ya es notoria su propagación territorial en el propio mundo desarrollado. Y adicionalmente aparecen alertas acerca de potenciales eventos climáticos cuya ocurrencia sería incontrolable. En este cuadro la exacerbación de la conectividad parece contraindicada. De ahí el desafío sobreviniente: la reconversión de las organizaciones públicas y privadas para que puedan sustentarse a sí mismas a la hora de interrumpir las conexiones externas, cuando deban recomponerlas y teniendo la idoneidad para funcionar en la transición sin poder contar con ellas.

Desde que se promulga la Ley de Accidentes de Trabajo en 1900, comienza en nuestro país una larga y prolija carrera por construir el edificio preventivo que culminará con la promulgación de la Ley de Prevención de Riesgos Laborales de 1995. Un siglo en el que la contradicción entre lo evidente, es decir, la existencia, el número y la gravedad de las cifras alcanzadas por los accidentes de trabajo, y lo prioritario, el ahorro de costes, la preocupación por aumentar la productividad a toda costa, mejorar los ingresos, tanto a nivel empresarial como a título particular, han estado siempre presente. Para poder conocer esta tensión entre lo evidente y lo prioritario, hemos planteado en esta tesis, como objetivo general, analizar la evolución de la siniestralidad laboral en España durante el siglo XX. Y como objetivos específicos: construir la serie estadística de accidentes del trabajo para el siglo XX, contextualizar el desarrollo normativo en materia de seguridad e higiene con la situación política, económica y social. Contrastar el desarrollo normativo con la evolución estadística. Analizar su evolución cronológica y el comportamiento de sus variables más destacadas. Analizar los cambios acontecidos en el proceso de elaboración de la estadística y el comportamiento estadístico que ha conocido en el sector de la minería y la construcción naval. Contrastar el comportamiento de la serie nacional con la evolución de las empresas mineras y la construcción naval. Contextualizar la aparición de algunas de las instituciones médico sanitarias que han ido surgiendo a lo largo del siglo. Analizar el alcance social de algunas de las instituciones médico-preventivas creadas a lo largo del siglo Proponer nuevos planteamientos y líneas de investigación. Para abordar estos objetivos, hemos tenido que llevar a cabo la construcción de la serie de accidentes de trabajo para el siglo XX en España desde una perspectiva general y particular para alguna de las grandes empresas nacionales del sector de la minería y de la construcción naval. Ello nos ha permitido superar la visión tradicional centrada en lo normativo y jurídico e incorporar la dimensión estadística de este fenómeno. De este trabajo hemos obtenido algunas de las siguientes conclusiones: 1. La serie de accidentes de trabajo para el siglo XX en España no responde a la evolución académicamente aceptada de los ciclos económicos. 2. La legislación en el corto y medio plazo no ha tenido una incidencia directa sobre el número de accidentes o al menos no se puede medir. 3. Se ha venido legislando fundamentalmente para la gran empresa. 4. El Franquismo, en el ámbito de la seguridad e higiene en el trabajo, supuso un claro continuismo con lo que se venía practicando durante el primer tercio del siglo. 5. El balance social de algunas de las iniciativas instituciones ha sido realmente escaso. 6. El discurso preventivo va a colisionar con las prácticas retributivas aplicadas desde los años Cuarenta. 7. El protagonismo que en este ámbito ha mantenido la Medicina del Trabajo justifica la atención prestada a las necesidades reparadoras más que a las preventivas. 8. Desde los Comités de Seguridad e Higiene y desde los Departamentos de Seguridad de las grandes empresas se empezaron a vislumbrar los riesgos de la institucionalización de la seguridad e higiene. 9. De los accidentes de trabajo lo conocemos prácticamente todo pero no somos capaces de reducir su número de una manera significativa. 10. El papel que la Organización Sindical Española ha jugado en este ámbito hay que reducirlo a labores de difusión y a labores formativas. El trabajo desarrollado en la tesis nos permite concluir que la tensión entre lo evidente y lo prioritario puede ser una buena línea argumental para tratar de explicar este fenómeno tan complejo pero al mismo tiempo tan atrayente. ; Since the Workers' Compensation Act was enacted in 1900, begins in our country a long and tedious race to build preventive building culminating in the enactment of the Law on Prevention of Occupational Risks in 1995. A century in which the contradiction between the obvious, that is, the existence, number and severity of the figures achieved by the accidents, and the priority, cost savings, concerns about increasing productivity at all costs, improve revenues, both enterprise level as a private capacity, have always been present. To know this tension between the obvious and the priority, we have raised in this thesis, the general objective of analyzing the evolution of workplace accidents in Spain during the twentieth century. And as specific objectives: to build the statistical series of accidents for the twentieth century, contextualize the policy development in the field of health and safety with the political, economic and social situation. Regulatory developments contrast with the statistical evolution. Analyze its chronological evolution and behavior of its most important variables. Analyze the changes that occurred in the process of making statistics and statistical behavior that has known in the mining and shipbuilding. Contrast the behavior of the national series with the evolution of the mining and shipbuilding. Contextualize the emergence of some of the medical and health institutions that have emerged throughout the century. Analyze the social scope of some of the medical and preventive institutions created throughout the century propose new approaches and lines of research. To address these objectives, we have had to carry out the construction of the number of accidents for the twentieth century in Spain from a comprehensive and unique perspective on some of the big national companies in the mining sector and shipbuilding. This has allowed us to overcome the traditional vision centered on the normative and legal and incorporate the statistical dimension of this phenomenon. In this work we have obtained some of the following conclusions: 1. The number of accidents for the twentieth century in Spain does not respond to academically accepted the evolution of economic cycles. 2. Legislation in the short and medium term has not had a direct impact on the number of accidents or at least can not be measured. 3. legislation has been enacted primarily for the enterprise. 4. The Franco in the field of health and safety at work, was a clear continuity with what had been practiced during the first third of the century. 5. The social balance of some of the initiatives institutions has been really low. 6. Preventive speech will collide with compensation practices implemented since the forties. 7. The role that this area has maintained the Occupational justifies the attention paid to preventive . rather than remedial needs. 8. From the Health and Safety Committees and from security departments of large companies became apparent the risks of institutionalization of safety and hygiene. 9. Of the accidents we know practically everything but we are not able to reduce their number significantly. 10. The role that Spanish trade union organization has played in this area must be reduced to outreach work training and work. The work on the thesis allows us to conclude that the obvious tension between the priority and can be a good storyline to try to explain this complex phenomenon but yet so appealing.