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Too little, too late? : how central bankers' beliefs influence what they do
Defence date: 6 June 2017 ; Examining Board: Professor Sven Steinmo, European University Institute (Supervisor); Professor Mark Blyth, Brown University; Professor Philipp Genschel, European University Institute; Professor Leonard Seabrooke, Copenhagen Business School ; For all its powers, we know little about how the European Central Bank (ECB) makes its decisions and why. In light of its ever-increasing importance in European governance and the criticism this has attracted, this is particularly regrettable. Often a welcome scapegoat, the ECB has been accused of doing first too little, then too late. Compared to other major central banks, the ECB has indeed long been a laggard – regarding both conventional interest rate policies and unconventional balance sheet operations. Why? I argue that central bankers' policy experiments after the financial crisis are a prime example of policymaking under conditions of Knightian uncertainty. Faced with an unprecedented situation, central bankers were unable to draw on historical experience and had to resort to their beliefs about how the economy works instead. Based on a survey among 422 central bank economists, I quantify these different ways of thinking. My survey data shows a) that certain beliefs matter for policy preferences and b) that both are unevenly distributed among central banks. In particular, the ECB leans more towards orthodox beliefs and hawkish inflation preferences than the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. It is considerably more conservative. Within the Eurosystem, different national central banks are clustered regarding both beliefs and preferences, revealing a dividing line in economic philosophy between core and periphery. This suggests that the frequently surfacing conflicts inside the ECB's Governing Council reflect a battle of ideas rather than a conflict of interests between creditor and debtor states. Proponents of activist monetary policy at the ECB had to overcome enormous resistance from within before they could follow the examples set by others. I argue that this is why the ECB first did too little to support the economy, and only changed its orthodox stance very late.
BASE
European Union policy and the European aerospace industry
In: Journal of European public policy, Band 1, Heft 3
ISSN: 1350-1763
From the 1960s, commercial, industrial and political pressures forced European aerospace firms to collaborate in the development and production of most aerospace products. Over the last decade, the European Commission has begun to intervene, mainly in trade and competition issues. Most recently, it has expanded its RandD sponsorship functions to aerospace. Reviews the repercussions of these developments. (Original abstract-amended)
World Affairs Online
Poland-European Union trade
In: The Polish quarterly of international affairs, Band 6, Heft 3, S. 97-110
ISSN: 1230-4999
World Affairs Online
Governance in the European union
In: West European politics, Band 20, Heft 4, S. 200-208
ISSN: 1743-9655
Regions in the European Union
In: Journal of international relations and development: JIRD, official journal of the Central and East European International Studies Association, Band 2, Heft 1, S. 67-77
ISSN: 1408-6980
The Migration of Career-Starter Hungarian Graduate Women to the Countries of the European Union
In our paper, we present the reasons for and characteristics of the increasing migration of graduate women, mostly undertaken alone. In Hungary, in the context of the acceleration of migration experienced after 2010, two phenomena can be observed: (1) Due to positive selection a high proportion of well-trained young graduates have moved to live abroad ; (2) over the past few years, a higher proportion of those migrating for work have been female graduates in their maternity age. Thus, not only is the process of weakening of the male dominance among the emigrants clearly perceptible, but a Hungary-related version of the feminization of the brain drain phenomenon due to the labor market demand of the host countries is also evolving. In this study, we examine the motivations of graduate women to work abroad and the success of their integration. Our qualitative study examines motivations for migration among college graduate females, who are just starting their career. We have explored social forces that influence emigration among the highest educated. We have also studied integration and assimilation strategies among Hungarian women working in the European Union. Our findings contribute to and extend research that focuses on push and pull factors in migration, as well as the interpretation of gender differences in migration, especially among the highest educated.
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The Migration of Career-Starter Hungarian Graduate Women to the Countries of the European Union
In: Social Sciences: open access journal, Band 9, Heft 5, S. 1-19
ISSN: 2076-0760
In our paper, we present the reasons for and characteristics of the increasing migration of graduate women, mostly undertaken alone. In Hungary, in the context of the acceleration of migration experienced after 2010, two phenomena can be observed: (1) Due to positive selection a high proportion of well-trained young graduates have moved to live abroad; (2) over the past few years, a higher proportion of those migrating for work have been female graduates in their maternity age. Thus, not only is the process of weakening of the male dominance among the emigrants clearly perceptible, but a Hungary-related version of the feminization of the brain drain phenomenon due to the labor market demand of the host countries is also evolving. In this study, we examine the motivations of graduate women to work abroad and the success of their integration. Our qualitative study examines motivations for migration among college graduate females, who are just starting their career. We have explored social forces that influence emigration among the highest educated. We have also studied integration and assimilation strategies among Hungarian women working in the European Union. Our findings contribute to and extend research that focuses on push and pull factors in migration, as well as the interpretation of gender differences in migration, especially among the highest educated.
European Union and Liberalism
Complex interdependence is the crucial concept of liberalism. If Liberalism believes in democracy, cooperation, mutual benefits, and human rights, then complex interdependence helps the states to achieve these ideals. Moreover, it also minimizes the chances of conflict and war. The military's role as a tool of foreign policy is limited, and transnational actors take precedence. The core of liberalism and interdependence could be understood more clearly if one applied it to the European Union. With 28 member states, the EU is the most influential intergovernmental organization in the whole world. The EU member states are mostly democratic and can easily be described as welfare states. The multiplex interdependence is a unique feature of the EU which makes it stronger. The EU has different organs which are responsible for drafting the legislature and carrying out different functions of the organization.
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World Affairs Online
Efecto plataforma de la CAN en las exportaciones manufactureras del Perú de Colombia a los Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea
In: Documento de trabajo 90
European works councils: a transnational industrial relations institution in the making
In: Routledge research in employment relations 23
Poverty in the Countries of the European Union: a Synthesis of Eurostat's Statistical Research On Poverty
In: Journal of European social policy, Band 4, Heft 2, S. 117-128
ISSN: 1461-7269
This article is a descriptive synthesis of the statistical research completed, and in progress, under the Commission's so-called POVERTY 3 programme.
The Socio-economic Impact of European Funds on Eastern European Countries
In: International review of social research: IRSR, Band 4, Heft 1, S. 49-56
ISSN: 2069-8534
Abstract
European Funds are considered to be o reliable solution for emerging economies from Eastern Europe. These funds are granted by European Union to reduce the gap between countries and to ensure a harmonized development at the level of this group of countries that decided to act together as a united economic entity. In fact, European Funds are previously obtained from taxes applied to all European citizens and redistributed by European Institutions in accordance with predefined principles and rules. The redistributive effect is always present in such situation and has clear impact on economies that are net paying for these funds and on economies that are net benefiting from them. This paper presents the results of a quantitative analysis at the level of ten Eastern European Countries (EEC countries) on the social and economic impact of these funds based on panel regression methodology.