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In: Russian Economic Journal, Heft 6, S. 102-117
The author of the article, addressed to those who teach and study in higher education economic theory, the history of economic thought and the socio-economic history of Russia, proceeds from the premise that changes in the socio-economic system of the country during the period of change in the dominant technological order actualize the development of the theory of money and the study of various stages of historical evolution of the domestic monetary economy (Russian monetary systems). In this context, an analysis of those periods of this evolution in the first half of the twentieth century, when the credit ruble becomes an extraordinary resource of the «war economy», unfolds. The article also examines the peculiarities of monetary circulation during the operation of the gold standard system and during the period of gold «leaving» to the state reserve fund. The author puts forward a hypothesis according to which the changes taking place in the monetary system in connection with the demonetization of gold are the accumulation of prerequisites for the transition to a post-industrial economic system.
Inclusion in the analysis of the events of the global military-political history of 1914–1917 and 1941–1945, i.e. events of the First and Second World Wars, helps to reveal the real basis on which a special type of economic relations was formed — the phenomenon of «war economy». The article identifies the key factors of instability in the twentieth century — industrial, monetary and world crises. The study of the peculiarities of the development of the crisis in peacetime and in the conditions of a «military-inflationary economy» in the works of prominent Russian economists deepens the understanding of the structural deformation of the national economy.
It is shown that the «price revolution», which characterizes the explosive growth of inflation, has become a vivid manifestation of the world economic instability during the development of extreme military-political events in Russia and in the countries of Western Europe. Attention is drawn to the fact that the «price revolution» in the conjuncture theory of M.I. Tugan-Baranovsky and the works of Z.S. Katsenelenbaum was considered as a function of qualitative changes that took place in the economic system as a result of the expansion of the sphere of money circulation during the transition from natural production to industrial production. The «price revolution» manifested itself with the greatest force in the conditions of the «war economy». The destruction of the national economy was accompanied by the development of «golden» inflation, indicating a chronic commodity deficit.
The author argues that the size of the accumulation of gold in 1920–1945, the emergence of large banks — custodians of the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the countries — members of the monetary unions — largely influenced the results of the competition between the three leading currencies (franc, pound and dollar), claiming to be the world leader. The conclusion is argued that the accumulation of gold and foreign exchange reserves in the conditions of the «war economy» accelerated the formation of a new monetary and financial «map» of the world in the second half of the twentieth century.
Our research aims to analyze the causal relationships in the behavior of public debt issued by peripheral member countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), with special emphasis on the recent episodes of crisis triggered in the eurozone sovereign debt markets since 2009. With this goal in mind, we make use of a database of daily frequency of yields on 10-year government bonds issued by five EMU countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain), covering the entire history of the EMU from its inception on 1 January 1999 until 31 December 2010. In the first step, we explore the pair-wise causal rela-tionship between yields, both for the whole sample and for changing subsamples of the data, in order to capture the possible time-varying causal relationship. This approach allows us to detect episodes of conta-gion between yields on bonds issued by different countries. In the second step, we study the determinants of these contagion episodes, analyzing the role played by different factors, paying special attention to instru-ments that capture the total national debt (domestic and foreign) in each country.
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In: https://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/13756/1/WP_08-11.pdf
Our research aims to analyze the causal relationships in the behavior of public debt issued by peripheral member countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), with special emphasis on the recent episodes of crisis triggered in the eurozone sovereign debt markets since 2009. With this goal in mind, we make use of a database of daily frequency of yields on 10-year government bonds issued by five EMU countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain), covering the entire history of the EMU from its inception on 1 January 1999 until 31 December 2010. In the first step, we explore the pair-wise causal rela-tionship between yields, both for the whole sample and for changing subsamples of the data, in order to capture the possible time-varying causal relationship. This approach allows us to detect episodes of conta-gion between yields on bonds issued by different countries. In the second step, we study the determinants of these contagion episodes, analyzing the role played by different factors, paying special attention to instru-ments that capture the total national debt (domestic and foreign) in each country.
BASE
Our research aims to analyze the causal relationships in the behavior of public debt issued by peripheral member countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), with special emphasis on the recent episodes of crisis triggered in the eurozone sovereign debt markets since 2009. With this goal in mind, we make use of a database of daily frequency of yields on 10-year government bonds issued by five EMU countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain), covering the entire history of the EMU from its inception on 1 January 1999 until 31 December 2010. In the first step, we explore the pair-wise causal rela-tionship between yields, both for the whole sample and for changing subsamples of the data, in order to capture the possible time-varying causal relationship. This approach allows us to detect episodes of conta-gion between yields on bonds issued by different countries. In the second step, we study the determinants of these contagion episodes, analyzing the role played by different factors, paying special attention to instru-ments that capture the total national debt (domestic and foreign) in each country.
BASE
Our research aims to analyze the causal relationships in the behavior of public debt issued by peripheral member countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), with special emphasis on the recent episodes of crisis triggered in the eurozone sovereign debt markets since 2009. With this goal in mind, we make use of a database of daily frequency of yields on 10-year government bonds issued by five EMU countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain), covering the entire history of the EMU from its inception on 1 January 1999 until 31 December 2010. In the first step, we explore the pair-wise causal rela-tionship between yields, both for the whole sample and for changing subsamples of the data, in order to capture the possible time-varying causal relationship. This approach allows us to detect episodes of conta-gion between yields on bonds issued by different countries. In the second step, we study the determinants of these contagion episodes, analyzing the role played by different factors, paying special attention to instru-ments that capture the total national debt (domestic and foreign) in each country.
BASE
Within a two step GARCH framework we estimate the time-varying spillover effects from European and US return innovations to 10 economic sectors within the euro area, the United States, and the United Kingdom. We use daily data from January 1988 - March 2002. At the beginning of our sample sectors in all three currency areas/blocks formed a quite homogeneous group exhibiting only minor sector-specific characteristics. However, over time sectors became more heterogeneous, that is the response to aggregate shocks increasingly varies across sectors. This provides evidence that sector-specific effects gained in importance. European industries show increased heterogeneity simultaneously with the start of the European Monetary Union, whereas in the US this trend started in the early 1990's. Information technology and non-cyclical services (including telecommunication services) became the most integrated sectors worldwide, which are most affected by aggregate European and US shocks. On the other hand, basic industries, non-cyclical consumer goods, resources, and utilities became less affected by aggregate shocks. Volatility spillovers proved to be small and volatile. JEL_Klassifikation: G1, F36
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Cover -- front matter -- title page -- copyright page -- Table of Contents -- Engaging with János Kornai's Scholarship: Systems, Institutions, and Values -- János Kornai's Theory of Socialism -- Thinking Capitalism with János Kornai -- The Theories of János Kornai and a Less-known Hungarian Economist,Ferenc Jánossy, on Unbalanced Economic Growth -- Mistaking Markets: Seeing Markets Where They Do Not Exist -- The System Paradigm and the European Monetary Union: What János Kornai's Contribution to Comparative Economics Can Suggest to the Eurozone -- Independent Fiscal Institutions: "New Kids on the Block" in Economic Policy -- Modified Management Thinking in Health Care: The Impacts of Centralization and the Soft Budget Constraint -- Resource Reallocation and Ambiguous Economic Performance in a Captured State: The Case of Hungary -- About the Value of Democracy and Other Challenging Research Topics: Closing Remarks at the Conference on February 22, 2018 -- Notes on the Contributors -- Index.
In: German Yearbook of Contemporary History volume 4
Since 1945, Germany's role in the project of European integration has been central to the economic and political development of Europe. The fourth volume of the German Yearbook of Contemporary History, edited by Mark Gilbert (Johns Hopkins University), Eva Oberloskamp and Thomas Raithel (both Leibniz Institute for Contemporary History, IfZ), assembles selected articles which have been published previously in the Vierteljahrshefte für Zeitgeschichte, and specially commissioned contributions by international authors. The chapters cover a wide range of topics. The theories and visions of European integration that were articulated in Europe and in the United States after the end of the Nazi regime and of World War II are the starting point for the volume. The period covered by the book stretches to the foundation and earliest stages of European Economic and Monetary Union, which received substantial momentum from German unification in 1989/90.
This book offers a fascinating exploration into the evolution of the Portuguese economy over the course of eight centuries, from the foundation of the kingdom in 1143, when political boundaries began to take shape in the midst of the Christian Reconquista of the Iberian Peninsula, and the formation of an empire, to the integration of the nation into the European Communities and the Economic and Monetary Union. Through six chapters, the authors provide a vibrant history of Portugal's past with a focus ranging from the medieval economy and the age of globalization, to war and recovery, the Atlantic economy, the rise of liberalism and patterns of convergence. The book provides a unique long-term perspective of change in a southern European country and its empire, which responds to the fundamental broader questions about when, how and why economies expand, stagnate or contract
In: International papers in political economy
The International Papers in Political Economy (IPPE) series explores the latest developments in political economy. This tenth volume offers a refreshing perspective on the prospects of fiscal and debt policies. The study focuses on the future, instead of reviewing these policies in relation to the recent and not so recent past. This volume provides analysis on wide range of countries and regions, including detailed analysis on the UK, Germany and the Economic and Monetary Union, Spain, France, China and the US. The volume also deals with more general issues of fiscal policy and debt policies, and provides a greater overview on democracy, technocracy and public policymaking. This book offers detailed analysis and informed comment on the future of emerging economic policies. It is essential reading for all postgraduates and scholars looking for expert discussion and debate on the issues surrounding economic policy.
In: Global financial markets 18
The 2010 European debt crisis has revived the discussion concerning the optimum adjustment strategy in the face of asymmetric shocks. Whereas Mundell's (1961) seminal theory on optimum currency areas suggests depreciation in the face of crisis, the most recent emergence of competitive depreciations, competitive interest rate cuts or currency wars questions the exchange rate as an adjustment tool to asymmetric economic development. This paper approaches the question from a theoretical perspective by confronting exchange rate based adjustment with crisis adjustment via price and wage cuts. Econometric estimations yield a negative impact of exchange rate flexibility/volatility on growth, which is found to be particularly strong for countries with asymmetric business cycles and during recessions. Based on these findings we support a further enlargement of the European Monetary Union and recommend more exchange rate stability for the rest of the world.
In: Diskussionspapiere des Fachbereichs Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Universität Hannover 306
The volatility of exchange rates is of high importance, because it affects decisions of market participants. The choice of the exchange rate arrangement affects the volatility of the exchange rate: higher flexibility goes ahead with increasing volatility and vice versa. We investigate the exchange rate volatility of possible initial members prior to the launch of European Monetary Union (EMU). The analyses merges two approaches, the GARCH-model (Bollerslev, 1986) and the Markov Switching Model (Hamilton, 1989). We discover a switch towards a low-volatility level in the run-up to the meeting of the EU council in Brussels in May 1998. The exact date of the switch differs depending on the particular currency, but has always been taken place between the end of 1997 and March 1998, when the convergance report was released. In contrast, and after the convergance report was published there was hardly any uncertainty left in the market.
The EU reformed the regulatory rules of the Eurozone in response to the European sovereign debt crisis, empowering the EU to more effectively enforce the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), which is designed to prevent debt crises. Given recent empirical evidence that the EU's willingness to enforce EU law depends on public opinion, under what conditions will EU residents view SGP enforcement as an effective way of tackling the crisis? I theorize how individuals will evaluate SGP enforcement and test my theory's predictions using cross-national survey data from all Eurozone member states and Bayesian multi-level models. I find that respondents' preferences over SGP enforcement depend on the interaction of their political support for the European Economic and Monetary Union and their member state's noncompliance with the SGP criteria. Public buy-in for SGP enforcement is lower precisely when enforcement is most important.
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In: European Review of Private Law, Band 28, Heft 1, S. 73-106
ISSN: 0928-9801
The Commission's 2017 White Paper on the Future of Europe suggested as one policy option the codification of EU business law. This article demonstrates the necessity and feasibility of such a code. It posits that a uniform business codification is indispensable to complete the Internal Market Agenda. A closer examination reveals that tighter fiscal coordination alone is insufficient to supplement a monetary union with the necessary economic integration. A legal level playing field is necessary to overcome the large disparities in competitiveness between the Member States. Evidence from comparative law and legal history shows that the harmonization of business law comes before the harmonization of civil law, and that one does not necessarily result in the other. The failure of past codification efforts in the area of civil law thus do not stand in the way of more uniform business law.