Suchergebnisse

1: Der Ost-West-Konflikt. - (4. Quartal 1994) 245, 58 S.: Ill., Kt., Tab., Lit. S. 58

This report covers basic descriptions and characteristics of the equine sector, including statistics on number of horses, horse farms, employment, current structure and recent dynamics in the horse sector in Finland, Latvia and Sweden and also the mobility (e.g. trade, import, export and tourism) within the Central Baltic Region. The information was gathered through literature reviews, round table discussions and interviews with equine organisations and stakeholders, and through visits to farms with equine business activities in each of the three countries. Horses in Finland, Latvia and Sweden At the moment the horse population in Finland is growing steadily. In 2010 there were about 75 000 horses. Most of these are warm-blooded trotting horses, but riding horses are becoming increasingly popular as riding as a hobby increases in popularity. Approximately 35 000 people own at least one horse and co-ownership is becoming a common way of owning a horse with relatively small costs and responsibilities, especially among trotting sports. There are approximately 16 000 stables, of which over 3 000 are business orientated. These numbers are still only estimates, because Finland is lacking a comprehensive register of stables and stable enterprises. Although statistical data on the number of horses, breeds, herds, stables etc. are being collected and are available in Latvia, there is still a lack of statistical data that characterise the sector in relation to employment, provide an idea of the financial results, and characterise horse uses for tourism or therapy purposes. For example, there are no data on the number of people working with horses. This is perhaps related to the perception of the sector as being located within the context of horse breeding. Statistical data show that the number of horses in Latvia in general has decreased, from 15 250 in 2005 to 11 476 in 2012, and the current trends indicate that it could decrease even more. The number of livestock has decreased correspondingly, from 9814 in 2005 to 5577 in 2012. More than 84% of all farms have 1 to 5 horses, and only a few farms have more than 100 horses. The number of horses in Sweden decreased in the early 1920s from about 700 000 to about 70 000 in the 1970s. During the past 30 years the number of horses has increased tremendously, but the trend seems to be stagnated the last few years. Today there are approximately 362 700 horses and about 20% of all horses in Sweden are within business establishments. The number of horses per 1 000 habitants is 39 for the whole country and Sweden is now estimated to have the second highest density of horses per capita in Europe. There are approximately 77 800 establishments involving horses in Sweden. The equine businesses have on average 4.7 horses and provide full-time or part-time work for a total of 25 000 people. About two-thirds of those working with horses are women. Horse related legislation in Finland, Latvia and Sweden Environmental legislation is one of the broadest judicial systems in Finland. It consists of a number of different laws and regulations, relating to waste disposal, water protection, environmental protection, land use and construction. After EU membership, environmental legislation in Finland was harmonised with EC (European Community) legislation, especially in the case of environmental protection and conservation. The main environmental legislation concerning the horse sector in Finland consists of following laws, directives and regulations: 1) Environmental protection law and regulation, 2) Waste law and regulation, 3) EU waste incineration directive, 4) By-product regulation, 5) Nitrate regulation, 6) Law concerning dead animals in remote areas, 7) The law on processing household water in remote areas, 8) Health protection law and regulation, 9) Fertilizer law, 10) Conservation law, 11) Land use and construction law and 12) Law about neighbourliness. According to the requirements of the Ministry of Agriculture, the policy of the horse breeding sector in Latvia is based on: a) Horse breeding is performed according to the targets stated in the breeding programme, which are based on production of high quality animals, preservation and improvement of the genotype through purposeful use of the breeding stock and improvement of horse monitoring, b) The importance of the development of horses and equestrian sports within the framework of the common agricultural policy is emphasised in order to encourage development of the rural environment, and c) Horse breeding is compliant with welfare regulations. National and European Union aid for the development of the agricultural sector is allocated to horse breeding too. Most of it consists of aid for breeding measures in the equine sector. Currently there are no specific regulations in Latvia which define requirements for keeping horses. Horse breeding is not distinguished separately within the field of animal welfare in Latvia and therefore the main document is the Animal Protection Law. Its norms are general, while Cabinet Regulation No 959 ´Welfare Requirements for the Keeping and Training of Sport, Work and Exhibition Animals and Use Thereof in Competitions, Work or Exhibitions´ does not specify actions with horses and can easily be interpreted in different ways. There is no measurable evaluation system to assess fulfilment of the requirements in the Cabinet Regulations. The law stipulates the actions and activities which may be undertaken with an animal and those which are strictly forbidden and lists the institutions that should supervise compliance with the law and the welfare requirements. Latvia lacks the basis of normative documents that would specifically regulate personal safety in the horse breeding sector and in businesses related to horse use. Therefore the common normative basis has to be considered, the foundation of which is the ´Labour Protection Law´. The foundation of Swedish environmental legislation is the Swedish Environmental Code. The purpose of the Swedish Environmental Code is to promote sustainable development which will assure a healthy and sound environment for present and future generations. The Code is a legislative framework based on a number of fundamental principles permeating international environmental protection and resource management. These include the "precautionary" principle, the "polluter pays" principle, the "product choice" principle and principles governing resource management, natural cycles and appropriate siting of industrial (and other) operations and remedial measures. The main environmental legislation in Sweden concerning the horse sector consists of the following laws, directives, ordinances and regulations: 1) Environmental Code, 2) Ordinance concerning environmentally hazardous activities and the protection of public health, 3) Ordinance on environmental consideration in agriculture, 4) Nitrate directive, 5) Water directive, 6) Swedish guidance on storage and spreading of manure, 7) Regulation on environmental consideration in agriculture as regards plant nutrients, 8) Ordinance on inspection and enforcement according to the Environmental Code, 9) Ordinance on self-inspection by operators, 10) Ordinance on animal by-products, 11) Ordinance on fees for examination and supervision under the Environmental Code and the fees ordinance, 12) Regulations on the protection of the environment, in particular the soil, when sewage sludge is used in agriculture, 13) Regulations on consideration for natural and cultural values in agriculture, 14) Ordinance on environmental penalty charge, 15) The Planning and Building Ordinance, 16) The Land Code. In Sweden the occupational safety and health issues in general are regulated in the Work Environmental Act (SFS 1977:1160), in the Work Environmental Ordinance (SFS 1977:1166) and in several provisions. There is no specific legislation regarding occupational health and safety in the horse sector. However, these issues are included in the provision Working with animals (SFS 2008:17). Some results of the round table discussions in Finland, Latvia and Sweden In general, the participants in round table discussions in Finland were hoping for concrete solutions and examples of low-cost and easy help for everyday businesses. Entrepreneurs with lower profitability need more support, but the challenge is to get them involved in education or advisory events. The riding sector at least is much divided, with some businesses having as many customers as they can serve, and others who are constantly on the edge of bankruptcy. To help those small and medium-sized enterprises that need help the most, the project should produce advice that can immediately be used in practice, and concrete results and solutions. The problem with small and medium-sized businesses is the lack of capital and the related impossibility of investing large amounts of money in new technologies or large-scale facilities. In this sector the profitability and competitiveness are often low, but small changes in operations could improve these. Many business owners are still lacking business skills and they may not see what they could use as a competitive advantage. The current understanding of the equine sector in Latvia has to be reconsidered or a better understanding has to be created. Therefore the policy guidelines and the aid to the sector will have to be reviewed. For example, according to the view of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Latvia, the equine sector only concerns breeding and accordingly state aid is predominantly provided for this purpose. The Latvian Horse Breeding Association also considers breeding to be its priority, but several representatives of the tourism industry expressed the opinion that horse breeding should be reconsidered, paying special attention to the Latvian horse breed, which could be interesting for foreign and local tourists as a special feature of Latvia. Latvian breed horses possess a nature and traits that make them suitable for tourism and also therapeutic riding purposes. The equine sector in Latvia in general lacks a clear direction for orientation, what should be bred, what might be a profitable product or an exportable product. Since this is not clear on a national scale, it is difficult to discuss aid instruments. The people working in the sector often lack skills in project preparation, they do not have time to learn and study it all, and therefore it is difficult to apply for and to receive the aid. In order to solve this, it is usual practice to involve companies that prepare the project application. Other entrepreneurs try to master these skills themselves. The horse sector in Sweden is now on a downward trend, pointing out the decreased number of served mares. The horse businesses need to streamline their business ideas, look for better locations (closer to customers) and the activities offered must be more adapted to customer needs and demands, such as different types of activities and livery stables with more specialist services or diversified food production. In general, horse stables will have a lot of opportunities in the sector if they can keep up with the changes in the sector. The interest in Sweden regarding keeping horses and attending riding sports was perceived to be decreasing and it was thought that there is a system change underway. The way to keep horses in the future may not be the same as it used to be. People are not willing to sacrifice time and efforts to keep on with horses any more, people are getting older and there is limited recruitment of young people into the sector. The horse activities mainly take place in urban and periurban areas.

One hundred per cent of the natural units of analysis will continue to be negatively affected, with a concomitant decrease in natures contributions to people, given current trends (business as usual), though the magnitude and exact mechanism of the individual drivers will vary by driver and unit of analysis (established but incomplete){5.4}. For example, tropical moist and dry forest and coastal mangroves will continue to exhibit a decline due to land use change regardless of the scenarios considered, but different local factors (agriculturalization and urbanization, respectively) will be involved (well established) {5.4.1, 5.4.11}. Additionally, some drivers will affect units of analysis differently. Empirical evidence indicates differential effects of climate change: boreal forest is extending northward {5.4.2}, while tundra is diminishing in land area (established but incomplete) {5.4.3}. Thus, some drivers, and their relative roles, will need to be further refined on a local scale and with respect to their proximate factors.2. Multiple drivers will act in synergy and further produce biodiversity loss and impact nature?s contributions to people in most of the units of analysis for the Americas (established but incomplete){5.4}. Climate change, combined with other drivers, is predicted to account for an increasingly larger proportion of biodiversity loss in the future, in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems {5.3}. Forest fragmentation, climate change and industrial development increase risk of biodiversity and nature?s contributions to people loss i.e. dry forest unit of analysis {5.4.1.2}. Predictions on invasive species and climate change indicates an increase in habitable areas and their potential impacts on different units of analysis {5.3}.3. Changes in temperature, precipitation regime and extreme climate events are predicted to impact all units of analysis in the Americas (well established) {5.4}. Climate change and the potential impacts on tropical dry forests by changing the frequency of wildfires; change in forest structure and functional composition in the Amazon tropical moist forest; extreme drought events changing nature?s contributions to people in the Amazon region; insect outbreaks and changes in albedo are predicted to significantly impact temperate, boreal and tundra units of analysis, affecting society and indigenous communities and well-being {5.4}.4. Thresholds, or tipping points (conditions resulting in rapid and potentially irreversible changes) may have already been exceeded for some ecosystems and are likely for others (established but incomplete). For instance, it is considered more likely than not that such a threshold has already been passed in the cryosphere with respect to summer sea ice (established but incomplete) {5.4.12}. Model simulations indicate changes in forest structure and species distribution in the Amazon forest in response to global warming and change in precipitation patterns (forest die-back) (established but incomplete) {5.4.1}. So too, a 4oC increase in global temperatures is predicted to likely cause widespread die off of boreal forest due to greater susceptibility to disease {5.4.2} and global temperature increases may have already started persistent thawing of the permafrost {5.4.3}. Under 4°C warming, widespread coral reef mortality is expected with significant impacts on coral reef ecosystems {5.4.11}. Sea surface water temperature increase will cause a reduction of sea grass climatic niche: those populations under seawater surface temperature thresholds higher than the temperature ranges required by the species could become extinct by 2100 with concomitant loss of ecosystem services.IPBES/6/INF/4/Rev.15415. Changes in nature and nature?s contributions to people in most units of analysis are increasingly driven by causal interactions between distant places (i.e. telecouplings) (well established) {5.6.3}, thus scenarios and models that incorporate telecouplings will better inform future policy decisions. Nature and nature?s contributions to people in telecoupled systems can be affected negatively or positively by distant causal interactions. Provision of food and medicine from wild organisms in temperate and tropical grasslands, savannas and forests of South America is being dramatically reduced due to land-use changes driven by the demand of agricultural commodities (e.g. soybeans) mainly from Europe and China. Conservation of insectivorous migratory bats in Mexico benefits pest control in agroecosystems of North America, resulting in increased yields and reduced pesticide costs. Trade policies and international agreements will thus have an increasingly strong effect on environmental outcomes in telecoupled systems.6. Policy interventions have resulted in significant land use changes at the local and regional scales and will continue to do so through 2050. These policies have affected nature?s contributions to people both positively and negatively, and provide an opportunity to manage trade-offs among nature?s contributions to people (well established) {5.4}. Land use changes are now mainly driven by high crop demand, big hydropower plans, rapid urban growth and result in a continued loss of grasslands {5.4.4, 5.4.5}. However, strategies for establishing conservation units have helped in reducing deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon from the period of 2004 to 2011 (well established) {5.4.1}. Similarly, wetland protection policies and regulation have helped reduce the conversion of wetlands in North America {5.4.7}. Policies based on command and control measures may be limited in providing effective reduction in ecosystem loss and should be complemented with policies acknowledging multiple values {5.6.3}.7. Policy interventions at vastly differing scales (from national to local) lead to successful outcomes in mitigating impacts to biodiversity (established but incomplete){5.4}. For instance, long-established governmental protections of wetlands in North America have significantly slowed and may have stopped wetland loss based on acreage {5.4.7}. In South America, where mangrove loss continues at a rate of one to two per cent, different stakeholders such as local communities and/or governments have been successful in protecting mangroves based on empowerment and shared interests in their preservation {5.4.11}.8. Pressures to nature are projected to increase by 2050, negatively affecting biodiversity as indicated by a potential reduction of the mean species abundance index. However, the magnitude of the pressures by 2050 are expected to be less under transition pathways to sustainability in comparison to the business as usual scenario (established but incomplete), {5.5}. The Global Biodiversity model projected that under the business as usual scenario mean species abundance had decreased in the Americas by approximately 30 per cent by 2010 compared to its values prior to European settlement of the New World, with historical losses primarily attributed to land transformation to agricultural uses. Using the Global Biodiversity model, there is an additional projected loss of 9.6 per cent by 2050, primarily attributed to some additional land use changes , and especially to climate change, which will steadily increase relative to other drivers considered in the model. However, under the transition pathways to sustainability of global technologies, decentralised solutions, and consumption change pathways, the projected losses are 6 per cent, 5 per cent, and 5 per cent, respectively,IPBES/6/INF/4/Rev.1542achieving a relative improvement of approximately 30 per cent to 50 per cent compared to the business as usual scenario. Under these pathways, climate change mitigation, the expansion of protected areas and the recovery of abandoned lands would significantly contribute to reducing biodiversity loss.9. Participative scenarios have proven to be a successful tool for envisioning potential futures and pathways and to embrace and integrate multiple and sometime conflicting values and their role in promoting bottom-up decision making in the face of futures uncertainties (well established) {5.3}. The use of participative approaches to develop scenarios has increased during recent years in the Americas. The inclusion of different stakeholders and their knowledges in the process of constructing potential futures has promoted a better understanding of the complexity of the social-ecological systems in which they are embedded. This has enhanced co-learning processes between all actors involved, even those normally under-represented in decision-making activities. As a result, several participative scenario exercises have motivated community-based solutions and local governance initiatives all pointing towards the development of adaptive management strategies {5.3}.10. Pathways that consider changes in societal options will lead to less pressure to nature (established but incomplete) {5.6.3}. An example is the indirect impact that shifts in urban dietary preferences have on agricultural production and expansion, and food options that are expected to continue growing into the future. Therefore, not only is there a strong connection between urbanization and economic growth, but also between affluence (and urban preferences) and the global displacement of land use particularly from high-income to low-income countries.11. Available local studies informing regional futures of nature and natures benefit to people do not allow scalability as of yet (well established) {5.3}. The challenge in expanding the findings from local studies resides in the fact that a number of comparable local studies are still not available. Information is scattered throughout the region by the use of different units, methods and scales, which prevents a local-to-regional generalization. The list of nature indicators used in studies at local scales is large and heterogeneous (well established). Even for the same indicator (e.g. biodiversity), different metrics are used (e.g. species-area curve, mean species abundance) {5.5}. In other cases, multiple indicators are used to describe different aspects of biodiversity and ecosystem services. In this latter case, synergies and trade-offs are explicitly mentioned with a clear pattern in which increasing the provision of some indicators result in the detriment of others {5.3}. For example, agriculture expansion leading to loss in biodiversity illustrates a common trend from local studies expected to continue into the future.12. There is a significant research gap in the development of models and scenarios that integrate drivers, nature, natures contributions to people and good quality of life (well established){5.3}. Models and scenarios can be powerful tools to integrate and synthesize the complex dynamics of coupled human and nature systems, and to project their plausible behaviors into the future. Most existing models and scenarios focus on the link between drivers and its impacts on nature. Few cases exist in which models or scenarios integrate the relationships between changes in nature and changes in natures contributions to people and good quality of life {5.3}. Inter-and trans-disciplinary modeling efforts will be required to address this research gap {5.3}. ; Fil: Klatt, Brian. Michigan State University; Estados Unidos ; Fil: Ometto, Jean Pierre. National Institute For Space Research; Brasil ; Fil: García Marquez, Jaime. Universität zu Berlin; Alemania ; Fil: Baptiste, María Piedad. Instituto Alexander Von Humboldt; Colombia ; Fil: Instituto Alexander von Humboldt. Independent Consultant; Canadá ; Fil: Acebey, Sandra Verónica. No especifíca; ; Fil: Guezala, María Claudia. Inter-american Institute For Global Change Research; Perú ; Fil: Mastrangelo, Matias Enrique. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina ; Fil: Pengue, Walter Alberto. Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento; Argentina ; Fil: Blanco, Mariela Verónica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Saavedra 15. Centro de Estudios e Investigaciones Laborales; Argentina ; Fil: Gadda, Tatiana. Universidade Tecnológica Federal Do Paraná; Brasil ; Fil: Ramírez, Wilson. Instituto Alexander Von Humboldt; Colombia ; Fil: Agard, John. University Of West Indies; Trinidad y Tobago ; Fil: Valle, Mireia. Universidad Laica Eloy Alfaro de Manabí; Ecuador

Hamas's attack into Israel and massacre of Israelis, followed by Israel's war of obliteration on Gaza backed by the United States, is a political earthquake in the Middle East. Its tremors are shaking up the politics of the Horn of Africa, bringing down an already tottering peace and security architecture. It's too early to discern the shape of the rubble, but we can already see the direction in which some of the pillars will fall.The most obvious impact is that the Israel-Palestine war has legitimized and invigorated protest across the wider region. Hamas showed that Israel was not invincible, and Palestine would no longer be invisible. Many in the Arab street — and Muslims more widely — are ready to overlook Hamas's atrocious record as a public authority and its embrace of terror, because it dared stand up to Israel, America, and Europe.Hamas's boldness has given a shot in the arm to Islamists, such as Somalia's al-Shabaab. As the African Union peacekeeping operation in Somalia draws down, al-Shabaab remains a threat— and will likely be emboldened to intensify its operations both in Somalia and neighboring Kenya.Kenyan President William Ruto gave strong backing to Israel while also calling for a ceasefire. For the U.S. and Europe, Kenya is now the anchor state for security in the Horn — but it desperately needs financial aid if it is to shoulder that burden.The war is consuming Egyptian attention and terrifies President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who is treading a fine line between sponsoring pro-Palestinian protests and suppressing them.Red Sea SecurityThe Red Sea is strategic for Israel. One quarter of Israel's maritime trade is handled in its port of Eilat on the Gulf of Aqaba, an inlet of the Red Sea. Eilat is Israel's back door, vital in case the Mediterranean coast is under threat. Israel has long seen the littoral countries of the Red Sea — Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia — as pieces in the jigsaw of its extended security frontier.Historically, Egypt has shared the same concern. Last year, revenues from the Suez Canal were $9.4 billion— its third largest foreign currency earner after remittances from Egyptians working in the Gulf States and tourism. Neither Israel nor Egypt can afford a disruption to maritime security from Suez and Eilat to the Gulf of Aden.The Red Sea is also the buckle on China's Belt and Road Initiative, with China's first overseas military base — strictly speaking a "facility" — in the port of Djibouti near the Bab al-Mandab, the narrow straits between the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. More than 10 percent of world maritime trade is carried on 25,000 ships through these straits every year.Having long neglected its Red Sea coastline, Saudi Arabia has reawakened to its significance in the last decade. In the 1980s, amid fears that Iran might block tanker traffic through the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia built an east-west pipeline from the Aqaig oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu al Bahr. Its strategic significance is back in focus.In parallel, the United Arab Emirates is well on track to securing a monopoly over the ports of the Gulf of Aden, which forms the eastern approaches to the Red Sea. It has de facto annexed the Yemeni island of Socotra for a naval base. The UAE is looking for a foothold in the Red Sea proper, and a string of satellite states on the African shore.All these factors intensify the scramble for securing naval bases in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Djibouti is already host to the U.S.'s Camp Lemonnier along with French, Italian, Japanese, and Chinese facilities. Turkey and Russia are actively seeking bases too, focusing on Port Sudan and Eritrea's long coastline.Empowered Gulf StatesWell before the recent crisis, the Horn of Africa was becoming dominated by Middle Eastern powers. This process is now intensified. Decades of competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran for alignment of Sudan and Eritrea has swung different ways. Sudan's General Abdel Fattah al-B­­urhan, formerly political partner of Benjamin Netanyahu and signatory to the Abraham Accord, cut an ill-timed deal with Iran in early October, to obtain weapons, which has embarrassed his outreach to Egypt and Saudi Arabia. More recently, Turkey and Qatar's regional ambitions have clashed with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, especially over the Muslim Brothers — supported by the former, opposed by the latter. The latest emerging rivalry is between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.Saudi Arabia has positioned itself as the regional anchor. While running for president, Joe Biden called Saudi Arabia a "pariah." But it is now indispensable to the U.S.Among the Arab states. the UAE has been the most restrained in condemning Israel for its actions in Gaza. It has also said that it doesn't mix trade and politics— meaning that it will continue to implement the economic cooperation agreements it signed with Israel following on from the Abraham Accords. The UAE is also positioned at the center of the U.S.-sponsored India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC), unveiled at the September G20 summit in India as a response to China's Belt and Road Initiative.The UAE also has a free hand in the Horn of Africa, and in the last five years it has moved more rapidly and decisively than Saudi Arabia.Sudan's Fate between Riyadh and Abu DhabiAfter the eruption of war in Sudan in April, the joint Saudi-American mediation was in large part a gift from Washington to try to mend fences with the Kingdom. Talks in Jeddah resumed in late October, with the modest agenda of a ceasefire and humanitarian access, and a pro forma "civilian track" delegated to the African Union, which has shown neither commitment nor competence.Meanwhile, the Emiratis are backing General Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo, known as "Hemedti," who is currently driving the Sudan Armed Forces out of their remaining redoubts in Khartoum. This followed more than six months of fighting in which Hemedti's Rapid Support Forces gained a reputation for military prowess and utter disregard for the dignity and rights of civilians. Despite widespread revulsion against the RSF, especially among middle class Sudanese, UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed al Nahyan, known as MBZ, stuck with his man.In charge of the ruins of Sudan's capital city, Hemedti will soon be in a position to declare a government, perhaps inviting civilians for the sake of a veneer of legitimacy. What's holding him back is the ceasefire talks in Jeddah. His rival, Gen. al-Burhan is meanwhile floating a plan to form a government based in Port Sudan — raising the prospect of two rival governments, as in Libya. The real negotiations there are between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. If the two capitals agree on a formula, the U.S. and the African Union will applaud, and the Sudanese will be presented with a fait accompli.Ethiopia Goes RogueIn Ethiopia, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's rule is underwritten by Emirati treasure. MBZ has reportedly paid for Abiy's vast new palace, a vanity project whose $ 10 billion price tag is paid for entirely off-budget. Abiy told lawmakers that this bill was none of their business as it was funded by private donations, directly to him. Other megaprojects in and around the capital Addis Ababa, such as glitzy museums and theme parks, have similarly opaque finances.Ethiopia's wars have depended on largesse from the UAE. Ethiopian federal forces prevailed against Tigray, forcing the latter into an abject surrender a year ago, on account of an arsenal — especially drones — supplied by the UAE. Abiy is currently rattling his saber against his erstwhile ally, Eritrea, demanding that landlocked Ethiopia be given a port, or it will take one by force. The likely target is Assab in Eritrea, though other neighbors such as Djibouti and Somalia have been rattled too.Eritrea unexpectedly finds itself as a status quo power and is relishing this role, tersely expressing its refusal to join in the confusing discourse from Addis Ababa. It suddenly has allies in Djibouti, Somaliland, Somalia and even Kenya — all of them threatened by Abiy's bellicosity.If Abiy does invade Eritrea, he will violate the basic international norm — the inviolability of state boundaries — and risk plunging his already failing economy deeper into disaster. This will pose a sharp dilemma for the UAE. It is ready to override multilateral principles, but whether it would bail out its errant client in Addis Ababa, and jeopardize its winning position in Sudan, is a different matter. It would also present Saudi Arabia with the dilemma of whether to back Eritrea's notorious dictator, President Isaias Afewerki.America and the Pax AfricanaPeace and security in the Horn of Africa isn't a priority for the Biden administration. Despite a rhetorical commitment to a rule-based international order, Washington has neither protected Africa's painstakingly-constructed peace and security architecture nor brought the Ethiopian and Sudanese crises to the U.N. Security Council.While the American security umbrella was in place over the Arabian Peninsula, the countries of the Horn of Africa had the chance to develop their own peace and security system, based on a layered multilateral structure involving the regional organization, the InterGovernmental Authority on Development, the African Union, and United Nations, with peacekeepers and peace missions funded by the Europeans. This emergent Pax Africana was already imperiled as the U.S. drew down and the Middle Eastern middle powers became more assertive. President Donald Trump authorized his favored intermediaries — Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE — to pursue their interests across the Horn of Africa. The Biden administration has not pulled that back.It's possible that the administration cares about peace, security and human rights in Africa. But for as long as the U.S.'s Horn of Africa policy is handled by the Africa Bureau at the State Department — whose diplomats scarcely get the time of day from their counterparts in the Gulf Kingdoms — Washington's views will remain all-but-irrelevant. The Horn of Africa doesn't make the cut when staffers prepare talking points for President Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken or national security adviser Jake Sullivan to speak to their Arab counterparts. It's a prioritization that leaves the region in a deepening crisis, at the mercy of ruthless transactional politics.America's well-established practice of treating Israel as an exception to international law is rubbing off on Israel's allies and apologists across the Middle East, who are actively dismantling the already-tottering pillars of Africa's norm-based peace and security system. Those African countries most in need of principled multilateralism are paying the price.

The results of the research described above were obtained on a representative sample of Croatian youth from 15-24 years of age in the second half of 2002. The research was carried on in the context of a regional research project on youth under the auspices of the PRONI institute from Sweden. The main objective of the project was to provide empirical data on life, needs, attitudes and aspirations of young people as a means of assisting the process of youth policy review. The process was initiated by the Council of Europe with a view to strengthen youth participation in democratic changes of the countries in the region. This report is the most recent one in a long and well-established tradition of studying youth issues in Croatia. Therefore, it often includes comments and references to earlier research findings for the purpose of determining the changes in youth trends, as well as for the purpose of validity testing of our data. On the other side, the data presented in this report may, together with earlier studies, be used as a reference point in the process of reviewing the National Programme of Action for Youth, as well as in developing a comprehensive, efficient and youth-centred national youth policy. The core of the findings is probably that the criteria for determining the upper age-level of youth period should be reviewed and extended to include those who are 30 years of age. The fact that more and more young people remain longer in education, that they decide to marry and have children later in their life, that they consider changing their job and probably, if possible, enroll in re-training programmes for that purpose, as well as that they desire to reach full independence by relying on their own abilities and endeavour, speaks in favour of the need to redesign our traditional approaches to youth upper age-limits. Other findings that help us understand some important dimensions and trends of contemporary life of Croatian youth are summarised below. The most basic socio-demographic data demonstrate that very few young people from our research who are 24 and below are married and few think of having children before the age of 25. About half of them live in a two-child nuclear family in a house/apartment of their own that, averagely, comprises more than two rooms. Very few have an opportunity to live in an apartment of their own, although four fifths express desire to live separately. The aspiration towards such independence is mainly motivated by socio-economic and maturity factors: it is a prominent feature of young people who are university students, whose fathers have more education, and who are over 20. Since the chances of having their own apartment in a reasonable period of time are rather minimal, not only due to the difficulties in finding a job but due to extremely high prices in the housing sector, such prolonged co-habitation and dependency on parents and/or relatives is a frequent cause of young people' s frustrations and is probably related to, together with other factors such as poverty and limited capacity of pre-school child-care institutions, a constant decrease in the average number of children per family. On average, young people are satisfied with their present life and expect no change in the future. Despite a high unemployment rate especially among them, approximately three quarters assess their own present and future life, the life of their closest friends and their peers in Western Europe as good or excellent. Their optimism is somewhat even higher than it was found in the end of 1990s. When asked to imagine their life in 10 years ahead majority see it as a success, either in general terms or in specific terms of their professional advancement or family happiness. Dissatisfaction with present life grows with age and with opportunities to enter the world of work and become fully independent, since the young between 20-24 years of age, both employed and unemployed are more inclined to perceive their present life as unsatisfactory. Interestingly enough, the age does not have influence on the assessment of future, which means, in the context of this research, that young people in general, irrespective of age, equally believe that future brings better opportunities. In reference to their professional and educational aspirations, almost two thirds of the young want to continue education, while one fourth of them think of finding a job. The differences are mainly determined by residential, social, and age factors. Thus, a primary aspiration of pupils and university students, as well as of those who live in Zagreb or in families of higher socio-economic status, is to continue their education. Contrary to them, rural young people, those who live in low-income families, as well as those who are over 20 are more inclined to seek for a job or to continuing the job they currently hold. Over two fifths of young people plan to leave their present place of residence so as to be able to meet their professional and educational aspirations. Almost half of this group prefer to move somewhere inside the country, most often to a bigger city which is perceived as the place that offers better opportunities for career and social positioning, while other half think of going abroad. The percentage of the young planning to leave the country for good rose from 11% in 1986 and 18% in 1999 to 19% in 2002. Their migratory plans are connected to their residential status, i.e. to the conditions in the place or region where the young actually live. Young people from Zagreb are less willing to go somewhere else; rural youth and youth from Eastern Croatia wish to migrate to another place inside Croatia more than any other group, while all groups (except youth from Middle and Northern Croatia who want that somewhat more than others) equally (do not) want to settle abroad. Data on a desired place for living are quite similar to those on migratory plans. The number of youth preferring to remain in their present place of residence and the number of those having no migratory plans are almost identical. When compared to earlier studies, we see an increase in the number of young people preferring to live in large cities. In addition, almost one quarter express their preference for living abroad, majority of which opt for a Western European country. The fact that almost one fifth of all has plans and almost one fourth prefer to live abroad indicate the existence of two closely related but, nevertheless, separate dimensions of youth migratory thinking. While the preference for other counties may mean only an inclination, having plans on migrating abroad most certainly includes active search for such a possibility. In light of our findings it means that at least one fifth of Croatian youth not only dream of leaving the country but actually make plans how to make it a reality. Employed youth is far from being satisfied with their jobs. Every second confirms his or her disappointment. Approximately one fifth of both them and those that are still in the process of education desire jobs in the service or business sector; little less in number think of entering more creative and/or dynamic professions or professions related to education, health care and social services. This means that their professional aspirations are somehow higher that those of their parents, majority of whom have secondary school completed and are mainly employed as industrial, service and shop workers or clerks. Nevertheless, if their choices are compared to the structure of the employed force in Croatia and if we add to it a rapidly changing labour market in all transitional countries, their professional preferences seem rather realistic. This is probably why almost half of the young hold that their chances for getting a preferred job are high or very high. The data also confirm that their estimations are related to age and socio-professional status since pessimism increases with age (except for the university students) and is tightly linked to unemployment status. In any case, optimism prevails among the young and it, as well, may be linked to their strong motivation to succeed in life by relying on their own abilities despite unfavourable social and economic context in which they live. It is also possible, at least partly, that self-assurance of young people comes from positive educational experience. Over half of the young state they feel happy and satisfied when thinking of their schools or universities. However, it is not clear whether their satisfaction should be understood in terms of acquiring subject-matter knowledge and skills or in terms of developing certain personal qualities through participating in school life. Earlier studies on youth have proven that the young have complex relations towards education which are the outcomes of both institutional tasks and personal expectations. Moreover, our results document that feelings about school are correlated with sex and socio-professional status.Girls and university students, in general, are more satisfied with their education, while the unemployed are among the least satisfied. It is also possible that positive feelings about education also relate to school grades. Earlier studies have shown that female pupils receive somewhat better average scores than their male schoolmates, which may explain why girls have more positive feelings about school than boys. • On the other hand, it is clear that school is by no means a source of information about the events in the country and the world for young people since a great majority of them actually receive news through ordinary media (TV, radio, newspapers and magazines). Moreover, Internet has become an important source of information about the country and the world for approximately one fifth and over one fourth of them, respectively. This shift has to do with the fact that over two thirds of the young from our study are computer users and that more than half of them already have computer at home. It is, therefore, obvious that new information and communication technologies are becoming part and parcel of young people' s daily life what needs to be taken into account when policies and programmes of action for promoting their wellbeing are designed, especially in reference to underprivileged youth. Namely, our research confirms that the use of computer correlates with residence (urban environment), family background (parents with higher education and higher socio-economic status), age, and education factors (younger population and students). Nevertheless, young people are not enslaved by new information communication technologies. Most of them spend their free time associating with friends, engaging in sport activities, going to disco-clubs, watching TV or performing outdoor activities, while far less enjoy music, reading books or art exhibitions. In addition, many young people have no daily obligations, except in relation to school and spend their free time idling or sleeping. This means that the majority of youth either do nothing or engage almost solely in the so called passive and/or receptive activities for self-entertainment. Despite that fact, almost three fourths of them claim they are more or less satisfied with how they spend their free time what brings us to the conclusion that the main problem is not the quality of their free time activities but their lack of awareness that the quality itself is being at stake. However, it should be pointed out that their opinions are related to age and socio-professional status. Young people who belong to an upper age-cohort and who are unemployed exhibit far more dissatisfaction with their free time than the youngest. Overpronounced dissatisfaction among the unemployed seems to be an indicator of an overall discontent with one' s own life. For the unemployed, free time becomes a burden not only because they cannot perceive it in terms of an offduty activity but because they can not afford it financially. In reference to the use of psychoactive substances, it seems that tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption are the most widespread types of risk behaviour among the youth. Approximately one third of them smoke cigarettes or drink alcohol daily or weekly ; three fifths are non-smokers and one fifth never drink alcohol. Smoking increases with age and employment. Alcohol, on the other hand, is solely related to gender in a way that young women drink less than their male peers. Such trend may be the sign of a subtle male initiation rite de passage that has outlived its traditional context. Since the data on smoking are more favourable than those from earlier research it may be presumed that an anti-smoking media campaign, which has been going on rather aggressively throughout the country, has brought positive effect, whereas non-existence of similar anti-alcohol campaign may be the sign of a relatively high level of a social tolerance for alcohol consumption. As far as drug are concerned, Croatian youth is more inclined to the so-called 'soft' drugs. Over one third of the young have tried or used twice or more only marijuana ; hashish and ecstasy is mentioned by less than one tenth of them, whereas other 'hard' drugs have been only tried or are consumed by 1-3% of them. The consumption of marijuana is associated with a recognizable youth group, what confirms earlier studies. A group of highest risk is made of young people between 20 and 24, male, university students, the residents of Zagreb, Istria, Croatian Littoral and Dalmatia, and whose fathers have higher education level. A great majority of young people tend to see themselves in rather positive terms: they are self-assured, think they have a good number of personal qualities; believe in their capabilities when compared to other people and have no doubts that most people they know like them. This may be related to feeling of security they experience in the context of their immediate environment since a great majority of the young claim that they can almost always get warmth, care and support from their parents and support from their friends. On the other hand, only every second of them feel the same about their teachers. It seems that most Croatian families are characterised by an exercise of indirect and flexible control over their children in the course of their growing up. In over half of the cases parents or relatives hardly ever determine rules for their children' s behaviour although they do control the choice of their friends, as well as their evening outdoor activities. Moreover, young people claim that their parents are especially keen of their school progress since they almost regularly keep records on their children school situation. • When asked about the most serious problems of their generation, the majority of young people in Croatia mention socially unacceptable behaviour, such as drug abuse, alcohol consumption and violence, unemployment, low standard of living, the lack of life chances and mass migration of young experts abroad. Since unemployment was repeatedly displayed as the major problem of young generation in earlier studies, their present preoccupation with socially unacceptable behaviour may be related either to the sample structure (majority of them are students) or to a general social climate which is, due to predominance of media campaigns mainly geared against smoking and drug abuse (but not against alcohol consumption, except for safe driving), inducing an over-sensitisation to behavioural issues causing, on the other side, the lack of awareness of existentially important issues of young people that are of an utmost importance for their independence and self-satisfaction. Young people are inclined to attribute responsibility for solving these problems primarily to themselves, their parents and public authorities, i.e. firstly to those actors that function at the private level (personal and parents' responsibility), than to public sector (government, education system) and, finally, to the civil society (nongovernmental organizations, youth associations and religious institutions). This means that youth principally count on their personal strength and family support, as well as that they have explicit expectations of state institutions, whereas they think of receiving the assistance from the civil sector only exceptionally. Notwithstanding, since half of the young studied have failed to mention personal responsibility, it clearly demonstrates that both strong sense of self-responsibility and its avoidance stand side by side as two features of Croatian youth. Among the measures that Croatian youth see as the most efficient for solving their problems two are underlined: equal education and career opportunities, on the one hand, and strict punishment of drug dealers and restrictions on alcohol selling, on the other hand. Since the majority of youth consider socially unacceptable behaviour, including drug-addiction, to be the gravest problem of their generation, it is understandable that they see the way out in strict punishing of drug dealers, (rather than consumers), what is still inadequately determined by Croatian law. Other most frequently mentioned measure has to do with the youth quest for developing society of equal chances which is in line with their perception of unemployment as the second most frequently mentioned youth problem in Croatia. Although lesser in number, the young refer to their under-representation and require their participation in decision-making to be ensured at all levels. They also require better adapting of secondary and higher education to the needs of contemporary life, as well as better quality of education, in general; some speak in favour of establishing a ministry for youth affairs, developing national strategy for promoting youth well-being, setting up of funds for youth initiatives, better legal regulations of the places of youth entertainment, i.e., the issues majority of which have already been integrated into the recently adopted National Programme of Action for Youth that is seen as an initial step in developing a national youth policy. The values that the majority of young people hold personally important or very important are healthy environment, peace in the world, gender equality, and rights and freedoms of the individual. Second group of the most personally preferable values encompasses solidarity among people, social justice, economic security, respect for differences, rule of law, inalienability of property, civil society, free market, freedom of the media, protection of minorities, religion and democratic system. The bottom of the scale is occupied by social power, national sentiment, European integration, and high economic standard. The review of their preferences demonstrates a relatively respectable level of democratic potential of young people in Croatia. They are more oriented towards comfortable life based on key principles of democracy and civil society, which is in correspondence with earlier research that have documented the shift to a more individualistic value system, including youth' s preference for independence and their focus on self-realisation and material security. However, their relative devaluation of the importance of European integration may be, on the one hand, the sign of either their dissatisfaction with, or their criticism of the way new European order has been established, partly due to the fact that Croatia has been somehow unjustly left behind. On the other hand it may be the consequence of their perceiving the integration merely in terms of a political objective of which very little they experience in everyday life. This is not to say that they devaluate the importance of European integration for Croatia as such. It would be more accurate to say that Croatian young people are becoming more and more pragmatic in their social positioning of which many think not only in the context of Croatia but in the context of Europe and the world. Having in mind a long tradition of Croatian youth emigration to Europe and the fact that almost 20% of contemporary youth plan to leave the country for good (mostly for a European country), their relation toward European integration may mean that they see it only as an added value to an already established youth migratory pattern in Croatia. of young people about the determinants of upward social mobility in Croatia reflect their accurate perception of social anomalies that, if left unquestioned, threaten to deepen social inequalities and diminish democratic potential of the society. Namely, a great majority of the young see as important or highly important for social promotion in Croatia a combination of the following variables: adaptive behaviour, personal endeavour, knowledge and skills, and connections and acquaintances. University degree, money and wealth, and the obedience and submissiveness to the 'boss', are identified less but, nevertheless, reflect a combination of appropriate and inappropriate means of social promotion. Somehow more troublesome is the finding that one third to one half of the young consider belonging to certain nation or political party, as well as bribing and corruption as important determinants of one' s success in Croatia. These data present an index of youth's perception of Croatian society as the society of unequal chances since it, by allowing nondemocratic practice to play an important role in social promotion, actually discriminates against those who in this matter believe in, and rely on their own abilities and efforts. When compared to earlier studies, it is highly troublesome that almost the same factors of social promotion are estimated as important by both socialist and ' transitional' young people in Croatia. Overall examination of the above results may be seen as an indicator of a process of relative homogenisation of young people in today' s Croatia – certainly, within the issues here examined and at the present level of analysis. There is no doubt that young people here described have many characteristic in common, especially in reference to their marital status, family pattern, housing conditions, parent' s educational background, attitudes towards present and future life, professional and educational aspirations, desired accommodation, sources of information, satisfaction with free time, positive feelings about themselves, feeling of security in relation to their parents and friends, as well as in reference to their abuse of psychoactive substances. They also share their desire for autonomy and independence, and for the recognition by the society at large, as well as their dreams of a more just society in which life opportunities would match individual abilities and endeavour. When they differ, it is mostly due to their varied socio-professional status and age. Residential status, father' s educational background, gender, and regional background are less important. The tendencies that have been documented suggest that youth are divided primarily by their actual social status and stage of attained maturity, and only secondarily by socialization factors, such as social origin in a narrow and broad sense of the term, and a gender socialization patterns. However, further analysis of data should disclose youth dominating trends with more accuracy.