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Since the advent of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in the early 1990s, Bayesian methods have been proposed for a large and growing number of applications. One of the main advantages of Bayesian inference is the ability to deal with many different sources of uncertainty, including data, models, parameters and parameter restriction uncertainties, in a unified and coherent framework. This book contributes to this literature by collecting a set of carefully evaluated contributions that are grouped amongst two topics in financial economics. The first three papers refer to macro-finance issues for real economy, including the elasticity of factor substitution (ES) in the Cobb-Douglas production function, the effects of government public spending components, and quantitative easing, monetary policy and economics. The last three contributions focus on cryptocurrency and stock market predictability. All arguments are central ingredients in the current economic discussion and their importance has only been further emphasized by the COVID-19 crisis.

Brexit, regardless of its final form, will affect the access that Scotland, and the UK as a whole, will have to EU funding sources for a number of actions, including the promotion of residential energy efficiency. In this work we explore how funding restrictions may affect the potential outcomes of the Energy Efficient Scotland (EES) programme. We focus on impacts on the amounts available to be offered as government grants and the availability of private loans. Our findings indicate that in order to achieve the goals of the programme it is key to try and maintain the originally planned level of funding. However, the options used to bridge any funding gaps need to be carefully considered, otherwise the benefits from EES could be significantly eroded. We also find that it is crucial for the overall success of EES to use any options available to ensure the continued availability of private loans.

We assess the impact of party representation on satisfaction with democracy. Our proposition is that such representation is not only about having a chosen party in government; citizens also derive satisfaction from having their views represented by a political party. We test this through an individual-level measure of policy (in)congruence: the ideological distance between a voter and his or her closest party. Via multi-level modelling of European Election Study data from 1989 to 2009, we find that perceived policy distance matters: the further away that voters see themselves from their nearest party – on either a left-right or a European unification policy dimension – the less satisfied they are with democracy. Notably, this effect is not moderated by party incumbency or size. Voters derive satisfaction from feeling represented by a nearby party even if it is small and out of office. Our results caution against a purely outcomes-driven understanding of democratic satisfaction.

European governments are struggling to regain economic strength in the coronavirus pandemic as in many countries the number of new infections seems to gradually subside. Growth rates deep in the red call for a reconstruction programme when the crisis is finally manageable and economic activity can resume. Amidst this, there are again influential groups that claim "this is not the time to insist on strict climate protection goals". On the contrary, the ongoing COVID-19 crisis has clearly illustrated what climate disasters, often occurring locally, could do to the life of citizens. The reconstruction programme needs to initiate the great green transition. The transformation from a climate-distorting to a climate-protecting economy opens up investment opportunities and points to financing needs comparable with those necessary for the rebuilding of the European economy after World War II. The great green transition is a unique chance to pursue policies for a new and sustainable growth regime.

This study aims to determine the value of consumer surplus and producer surpluscontained in Oeba Fish Landing Base. The research method used is case study. Technique oftaking data with observation, interview and documentation on object of research. The resultsshow that consumer surplus is bigger than surplus of producer. This means that the benefitsenjoyed by consumers are greater than producers. This is related to the structure of Marketin Fish Landing Base Oeba which is perfect competition market.Producen Surplus value for Commodities Skipjack (Stalls Large) is Rp 2.174.800 andSurplus Consumer is Rp 804 360. Consumer Surplus value for Commodities Yellow StripedFish (Stalls Large) is Rp 7.417 and Surplus Producen is Rp 3.802. Consumer Surplus Valuefor Bloated Commodities is Rp 1.338.600 and Surplus Producen is Rp 959.080.From the results of this study suggested that the relevant government able toformulate policies that can create a market balance in the Landing Base Fish Oeba.

Sarah Coefield is an Air Quality Specialist with the Missoula City-County Health Department. Her wildfire smoke reports are mandatory reading for many of us here in Western Montana. Sarah is deeply passionate about air quality and how it affects people's lives. That passion, along with some famously dark humor and whimsy make her writing unique and incredibly effective. It takes courage, talent and clarity to use humor when writing about serious topics. You might not expect humor from a government employee like Sarah, but you'll find it at just the right moments, with just the right tone. Beyond her writing, Sarah is a fierce advocate for the communities and people affected by wildfire smoke. In this conversation we talk about her approach to communication, as well as her collaboration with Climate Smart Missoula to scrape together the funding required to get air cleaners to communities in need. ; https://scholarworks.umt.edu/anewangle_podcasts/1168/thumbnail.jpg

En un escenario global de reconfiguración de actores -estatales y no estales- el papel de la diplomacia para establecer y mejorar las relaciones entre los países adquiere una nueva dimensión. Con la diplomacia cultural profunda, un concepto poco estudiado en Colombia, se puede generar la transformación de la imagen y el posicionamientodel país a nivel internacional, argumenta Sandra Montoya, catedrática de la Facultad de Ciencia Política, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales de la Universidad del Rosario. ; In a global scenario whose State and non-State actors are being reshaped, the role of diplomacy in establishing and improving the relations between countries has acquired a new dimension. With an in-depth cultural diplomacy, a concept little studied in Colombia so far, one can change the image and positioning of the country on an international level, argues Sandra Montoya, professor at the Faculty of Political Science, Government and International Relations at the Universidad del Rosario.

In this study, I examine how market participants respond to global uncertainty around the Covid-19 pandemic. More specifically, I analyze the industries most affected by the outbreak. The pandemic has created events never before seen at such a global level. Governments closed their country's borders and quarantined their residents. Business owners closed their doors. These unforeseen events put the world economy at a standstill. I find that these decisions caused the U.S. stock markets to crash by more than 30%. The industries that experienced the most negative value-weighted abnormal returns were Carry, Meals, and Books. The industries that exhibited the most positive value-weighted abnormal returns were Transportation, Healthcare, and Smoke. Perhaps policies and financial assistance can be better allocated to those industries that suffered the most. Additionally, investment managers might be able to use this information to hedge against future losses, in the case of a similar pandemic.

In order to facilitate the discovery, management, preservation, access, and use of soil surveys, an inventory of known print surveys was completed in the spring of 2020. The inventory should also allow those librarians interested in providing access to coverage for their regions to identify relevant materials. The inventory was created by using the Soil Surveys by State (n.d.) site, an index of publications from the Bureau of Soils (Holman et al., 1939), the List of published soil surveys (1994) from the Soil Conservation Service, reviewing the collections at several land grant universities, and searching various digital repositories. Entries were also checked against the Government Publishing Office (GPO) Catalog of Publications to determine if they were distributed through the Federal Depository Library Program (FDLP). To be included in this inventory the survey had to contain a map of the location, and be about soil types in general (not, for example, about soil types for a specific crop).

Despite a wealth of expertise involving leading institutions over at least 15 years, a base of the pyramid (BoP) model resulting in scalability has yet to emerge. We posit that institutional gaps between BoP goals of developing human and social capital on one hand and a short-term profit focus of business on the other contribute to the lack of scalability. We address this gap by proposing a social intermediary to link the BoP with firms involved in the BoP. The social intermediary will coordinate and interpret the informal market requirements of the BoP to the firm in a "bottoms up" approach. We illustrate the bottoms up approach through a case involving Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Internationale Zusammenarbeit, a German government agency, with the garment manufacturing industry in Pakistan. The case study involves implementation of labor standards and productivity in the Pakistan garment industry, resulting in improved productivity and labor standards enabling garment manufacturers to access global supply chains.

Mobility of high-income individuals across borders puts pressure on governments to lower taxes. A central tenet of the corresponding textbook argument is that mobile individuals react to tax differentials through migration, and in turn immobile individuals vote for lower taxes. We investigate to which extent this argument is complete. In particular, political ideology may influence voting on taxes. We vary mobility and foreign taxes in a survey experiment within the German Internet Panel (GIP), with more than 3,000 individuals participating. We find that while the treatment effects qualitatively confirm model predictions how voters take mobility of high-income earners into account when choosing domestic taxes, ideology matters: left-leaning high-income individuals choose higher taxes and emigrate less frequently than right-leaning ones. These findings are in line with the comparative-static predictions of a simple model of inequality aversion when the aversion parameters vary with ideology.

We explore the impact of COVID-19 hotspots and regional lockdowns on the Dutch labour market. Using weekly administrative panel microdata for 50 per cent of Dutch employees until the end of March 2020, we study whether individual labour market outcomes, as measured by employment, working hours and hourly wages, were more strongly affected in provinces where COVID-19 confirmed cases, hospitalizations and mortality were relatively high. We do not observe a region-specific impact of COVID-19 on labour market outcomes. The results suggest individual characteristics are more important, including the employee's age, type of contract and type of job. The evidence suggests that the decline of the labour market was all due to the impacts from the government-enforced lockdown and higher virus case numbers did not reinforce this decline. This suggests that preventive health measures should be at the regional level, isolating hotspots from low-risk areas.

The COVID crisis has severely hit both the United States and the European Union. Even though they are the wealthiest regions in the world, they differ substantially in economic performance, demographic characteristics, type of government, health systems, and measures undertaken to counteract COVID. We construct comparable measures of the incidence of the COVID crisis and find that US states had more COVID-related deaths than EU countries. When taking account of demographic, economic, and political factors (but not health-policy related factors) we find that fatalities at 100 days since onset are 1.3 % higher in a US state than in an EU country. The US/EU gap disappears when we take account of health-policy related factors. Differences in number of beds per capita, number of tests, and early lockdown measures help explain the higher impact of COVID on US fatalities measured either 50 or 100 days after the epidemic started in a nation/state.

How should payment systems of means-tested benefits be designed to improve the financial situation of needy recipients most effectively? We study this question in the context of mandatory health insurance in Switzerland, where recipients initially received either a cash transfer or subsidized insurance premiums (a form of in-kind transfer). A federal reform in 2014 forced cantons (i.e. states) to universally switch to in-kind provision. We exploit this setting based on a difference-in-differences design, analyzing rich individual-level accounting data and applying a machine learning approach to identify cash recipients prior to the reform. We find that switching from cash to in-kind transfers reduces the likelihood of late premiums payments by about 20% and of government debt collection for long-term missed payments by approximately 16%. There is no evidence for a negative spillover effect on the timely payment of the non-subsidized coinsurance bills for health services after the regime change.

In der gegenwärtigen COVID-19 Krise wurde die wirtschaftliche und gesellschaftliche Rolle von modernen und leistungsfähigen Internetinfrastrukturen und darauf basierenden Diensten besonders deutlich. So haben eine Reihe von Diensten, etwa im Bereich der Ausbildung ("e-learning" und "e-teaching"), des Gesundheits- oder Verwaltungswesens ("e-health" und "e-government"), des wirtschaftlichen Handelns ("e-commerce") sowie der räumlich flexiblen Arbeitszeitgestaltung ("Telearbeit"), eine besonders wichtige Rolle für die Aufrechterhaltung wesentlicher Wirtschafts- und Lebensbereiche während der Phase teils strenger Lockdownmaßnahmen im Frühjahr 2020 gespielt. Mit dieser gesamtwirtschaftlich bedeutenden Resilienzwirkung in Form einer substanziellen Abfederung des Rückgangs der wirtschaftlichen Gesamtleistung sowie einer in weiterer Folge schnelleren Konjunkturerholung geht eine bislang noch weitgehend unerforschte, jedoch potenziell besonders hohe positive Auswirkung von modernen Infrastrukturen und Online-Diensten einher. Die in nationalen und EU weiten Breitbandzielen zum Ausdruck gebrachte generelle Bedeutung von digitalen Infrastrukturen und Online-Diensten wurde in den vorliegenden Forschungsergebnissen sowohl für einfaches Internet (Basisbreitband) als auch für schnelles Internet (Hochbreitband) bestätigt. In diesem Sinne sind auch die in den Breitbandzielen formulierten Vollversorgungsziele für alle Haushalte und Unternehmen und die damit einhergehenden Fördermaßnahmen zum Ausbau von Hochbreitbandnetzen nicht nur aus verteilungspolitischen Gründen (Verringerung einer gesellschaftlichen und räumlichen "digitalen Kluft") positiv zu bewerten, sondern auch aus ökonomischen Effizienzüberlegungen zu rechtfertigen. In Hinblick auf die Unterscheidung von städtischen und ländlichen Gebieten zeigt sich, dass Letztere im besonderen Maße von den positiven Auswirkungen von Hochbreitband profitiert haben, was entsprechend zur Verringerung der räumlichen digitalen Kluft beiträgt. (.)