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In order to keep abreast of emerging issues at the National/International and local level, the SDPI China Study Centre brings out a Monthly E-Newsletter. It carries reference information to the News items/Comments/Op-Eds appearing in leading National/International dailies.

In order to keep abreast of emerging issues at the National/International and local level, the SDPI China Study Centre brings out a Monthly E-Newsletter. It carries reference information to the News items/Comments/Op-Eds appearing in leading National/International dailies.

NTS Bulletin is a monthly periodical that discusses current issues concerning Climate change, Energy, food, water and Health security; Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.

The Annual Meeting of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) Board of Governors is an opportunity to provide guidance on the administrative, financial, and operational directions of ADB. The meetings provide opportunities for member governments to interact with ADB staff; nongovernment organizations; media; and representatives of observer countries, international organizations, academe, and the private sector. ADB's annual meetings have become a premier forum for the discussion of economic and social development issues in Asia and the Pacific. The 52nd ADB Annual Meeting was held for the first time in a Pacific developing member country, Fiji.

This ADBI newsletter is published periodically throughout the year to provide information on current events, seminars and summits, Job opportunities, blogs and news and current publications concerning growth and development in Asia and the Pacific.

This ADBI newsletter is published periodically throughout the year to provide information on current events, seminars and summits, Job opportunities, blogs and news and current publications concerning growth and development in Asia and the Pacific.

The fourth industrial revolution (4IR) is changing today's world. Globally, 64 percent of all migrant travellers has migrated for employment. However, traditional models of employment are increasingly replaced by new developments associated with 4IR technologies. This height of technological advancements in some aspects are creating inadvertent challenges. A major development in the travel and tourism sector in the 4IR, is the disruption of the traditional tourism accommodation model of renting space. Challenging this model, Airbnb became operational from 2009, as a trusted community marketplace for people to list, discover, and book unique accommodations around the world. While the pre-travel stage is highly influenced by developments such as platforms and market places for researching and booking, the experience in the travel stage is closely intertwined to border control. The 4IR can add length and breadth to increase efficiency in border control by overhauling individual privacy and identity management related to border control, and address issues such as queues, wait time, airline efficiency, and customer experience. A technology that is increasingly used in identity management and individual privacy is blockchain. Blockchain is a public database or chain that stores cryptographically linked digital information, which is called a 'block'. The security feature of blockchain is the unique identifier called 'hash', which stores cryptographic hash of the previous block, linking all blocks into a chain. Due to its design, tampering with data in a block is nearly impossible.

This diagnostic study presents an in-depth analysis of key sectors from which the needed economic and governance reforms can emanate and lead to comprehensive growth. The book presents evidence-based policy suggestions for trade, agriculture, tourism and finance, information and communication technology (ICT), energy, transport and logistics, and human capital.

Economic growth in Maldives increased from 6.9% in 2017 to an estimated 7.6% in 2018. Expansion in tourism, construction activities, and supporting services contributed to this growth. Tourist arrivals increased in 2018 despite a decline in tourists from the People's Republic of China, Maldives' largest tourism source market; the increase is attributed to new flights, and increased frequency of flights from Europe. Construction has also contributed to growth, fueled by the government's Public Sector Investment Program and private sector-led developments. Growth in 2019 and 2020 is expected to remain robust, averaging 6.4% on account of projected steady tourist arrivals and continued public investments, which will expand at a slower rate. Following the 23 September 2018 presidential election in Maldives, a new administration was set up under a coalition of four political parties. The new government is focused on providing basic needs—such as affordable housing, clean water, and adequate sewerage—as one of its top priorities. The government pledged to provide these services in all inhabited islands by the end of its 5-year term. Decentralization is also a key priority; local councils will be empowered, and substantial changes will be made to reduce congestion in Malé and make it more livable. However, development of the Greater Malé Area will continue to be given high priority as the government plans to relocate the main port to Gulhifalhu and construct new housing projects. The government requested Asian Development Bank (ADB) assistance to formulate a new 5-year national development plan. ADB will prepare its new country partnership strategy based on the national development plan.

The recently wide-spreading disappointment at 'Abenomics,' following the meager outcomes of its first arrow, quantitative easing (QE), drew attention to the third arrow, a comprehensive growth strategy focusing on structural reforms in Japan. In other words, although the Abe Cabinet has steered its economic policies toward monetary expansion since April 2013, which further developed into a Negative Interest Rates Policy (NIRP) on February 2016, their impacts on the real sectors, particularly on private investment and consumption, have been utterly trivial. Furthermore, the second arrow of Abenomics, fiscal stimulus, has reached an impasse due to a huge fiscal deficit mainly resulting from low fertility rates and population ageing.

The last eight years since the global financial crisis have been quite eventful and challenging for everyone, especially policy makers. Crises, one after the other, have tested the 'too-big-to-fail' perception, challenged existing policies and led to the adoption of unconventional ones. Several attempts at policy reorientation have put the economy back on the growth path, but the recovery remains weak. The leaders' level G20 has been an instrumental platform for integrated and coordinated discussions on global economic and financial issues since the global financial crisis of 2008. With a focus on reducing risk and volatility in international financial markets, controlling unemployment, supporting an open trade and investment regime, the G20 has been working towards achieving its objective of strong, sustainable and balanced growth. In 2014 the finance ministers of the G-20 set themselves an objective of increasing world GDP by 2 percentage points—or about $1.5 trillion—over the next five years, over and above the current "business as usual" trend.

The public rhetoric of the Abbott government suggests that Australia is presently comfortable with Indonesia's rise, with the prime minister commenting in positive terms that "Indonesia is an incredibly important country to Australia given its proximity, its size and its potential." In recent times, Abbott has welcomed the "wave of confidence and renewal sweeping Indonesia" with the hope that the country under Joko Widodo whom Abbott praised as a "charismatic and inspirational figure" will allow Australia "opportunities to take part in the renewal and the reinvigoration of this important neighbour and partner." Such comfort stems in part from the relatively smooth and bloodless transfer of power from Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) to Jokowi despite the protestations of the defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto – signalling that Indonesia has become a significantly different country to what it was under Sukarno. Even so, Australia is well aware that Indonesia's democratic transition is far from irreversible or permanent and that the future political direction of Indonesia is not assured or set in stone. In reality, Australia's current comfort with Indonesia's rise is also largely based on Canberra's assessment that the preferred 'Goldilocks' point has been reached for the foreseeable future – that Indonesia is neither too strong to threaten Australia's strategic interests nor too weak or divided a country to pose headaches for Canberra.

The Monitor provides an update of developments in Pacific economies and explores topical policy issues.

Transportation has continued to increase worldwide and fossil-fuel dependency is strong which leads to a number of problems, e.g. increased emissions of green-house gases (GHG) and risks related to energy security. Biofuels have until now been one of the few renewable alternatives which have been able to replace fossil fuels on a large scale. The biofuel share in relation to the total use of fuel in the transportation sector is still small, but in many places in the world political targets are set to increase the share of renewable fuels, of which biofuels are supposed to be an important part. Within the European Union targets for renewable energy have been set, including within the transportation sector, where 10% shall come from renewable sources by 2020 according to the EU Renewable Energy Directive (EU RES). Biofuels also need to fulfill the sustainability criteria in the EU RES, to be regarded as renewable. Depending on how biofuels are produced their resource efficiency varies, and the differences in environmental and economic performance can for instance be significant. The aim of this thesis is to describe and analyze conditions for a development towards increased and more resource-efficient production of biofuels in Sweden. The conditions have been studied from a regional resource perspective and from a biofuel producer perspective since it has been assumed that the producers are in possession of important knowledge, and potentially will play an important role in future biofuel development. The concept of resource efficiency used in this thesis includes an environmental and economic perspective as well as an overall societal dimension to some extent. The region of Östergötland in Sweden was used for the assessment of the resourcefocused biofuel potential for the year 2030, where two scenarios based on assessments regarding socio-technical development in relation to regional resources were used. The scenarios were based on semi-structured interviews with biofuel actors, literature studies and information from experts in the field. In the EXPAN (Expansion) scenario a continued development in line with the current one was assumed, but also an increased availability of feedstock primarily within the agricultural and waste sectors (also including byproducts from industry) for biofuel production. In the INNTEK (Innovation and Technology development) scenario greater technological progress was assumed to also enable the use of some unconventional feedstock besides increased available arable land and improved collection/availability of certain feedstock. Biomass feedstock from four categories was included in the potential: waste, agriculture, forestry and aquatic environments. One important feedstock which was not included in this study, but which is often included in studies of potential, is lignocellulosic material from the forest. This choice was also supported by the regional actors who judged it as less probable that there will be any large-scale use of such feedstock for biofuels in this region within the given timeframe. Regarding arable land available for biofuel production a share of 30% was assumed at maximum in the region, of which 15% is already used for cereal production for ethanol fuel. On these additional 15% assumed to be available for biofuel production year 2030, ley cropping for production of biogas was assumed in this study. Aquatic biomass is often not included in biofuel potentials. Here, algae were assumed to be a potentially interesting substrate for biogas production since harvesting algae in for instance the Baltic Sea could be seen as a multifunctional measure, i.e., contributing additional environmental benefits such as reducing eutrophication. Based on the assumption that the energy need in the transportation sector will be the same in 2030 as in 2010, up to 30% could be substituted with biofuels in the EXPAN scenario and up to 50% in the INNTEK scenario, without seriously conflicting with other interests such as food or feed production. In the study of potential, production systems for biogas production were prioritized since such systems were judged to have a large potential for resource efficiency. This is because they have a big capacity to utilize by-products and waste as feedstock, and also because they can contribute to closing the loops of plant nutrients, seen as an important goal in society, if the digestate is returned to arable land. The utilization of by-products and waste however in many cases requires cooperation between different actors in society. Within the research field of industrial symbiosis, cooperation regarding material and energy flows is studied from different perspectives, e.g. how such cooperation between actors evolves and to what extent such cooperation can contribute to improving the environmental and economic performance of systems. Both these perspectives are interesting in relation to biofuels since production often involves a large number of energy- and material flows at the same time as resource efficiency is important. How the producers organize the production when it comes to feedstock, energy, by-products and products and what influences this is therefore interesting to study. In this thesis four biofuel producers of three different biofuels (ethanol, biodiesel and biogas) on the Swedish market were studied, focusing on how they organize their biofuel production in terms of e.g. their material and energy flows, and how they intend to organize it in the future. The study is based on semi-structured interviews with the biofuel producers as well as literature studies. In all the cases, a number of areas of material and energy flow cooperation were identified and it could also be concluded that there had been some change regarding these patterns over time. Looking into the future a clear change of strategy was identified in the ethanol case and partly also in the biodiesel case where a development towards improved valorisation and differentiation of by-product flows was foreseen. If such a "biorefinery" strategy is realized, it can potentially improve the economic viability and resource efficiency in these biofuel producers. In the biogas cases, instead a strategy to lower the costs for feedstock through the use of lower quality feedstock was identified. This strategy also has a potential to increase economic viability and improve the resource efficiency. However, the success of this strategy is to a large extent dependent on how the off-set of the biofertilizer can be arranged regarding the economic challenges that the biogas producers' experience, and yet no strategy for implementation regarding this was identified. The EU Renewable Energy Directive was mentioned in relation to most cooperation projects and therefore regarded as an important critical factor. All of the studied companies also struggle to be competitive, for which reason the importance of the direct economic aspects of cooperation seems to increase. ; Transporterna i världen ökar kontinuerligt och det fossila beroendet är fortsatt stort vilket medför flera problem, bl. a. ökade utsläpp av växthusgaser och en osäkerhet kring framtidens energiförsörjning. Biodrivmedel har hittills varit ett av de få förnyelsebara alternativ som kunnat ersätta fossila drivmedel i stor skala. Andelen biodrivmedel av den totala bränsleanvändningen inom transportsektorn är dock fortfarande liten, men på många håll i världen finns nu politiska mål för att öka andelen förnyelsebara drivmedel av vilka biodrivmedel förväntas utgöra en viktig del. Inom EU har mål för förnybar energi satts upp bl. a. inom transportsektorn där 10% skall komma från förnybara energikällor senast år 2020 enligt EUs förnybarhetsdirektiv. Biodrivmedel måste dessutom, om de ska räknas som förnyelsebara, uppfylla direktivets hållbarhetskriterier. Beroende på hur biodrivmedel produceras är de olika resurseffektiva, med exempelvis betydande skillnader avseende miljömässig och ekonomisk prestanda. Syftet med den här avhandlingen är att beskriva och analysera förutsättningarna för en utveckling mot ökad och mer resurseffektiv produktion av biodrivmedel i Sverige. Förutsättningarna har studerats med ett regionalt resursperspektiv samt från ett biodrivmedelsproducentperspektiv eftersom producenterna sitter på viktiga kunskaper och sannolikt spelar en betydande roll för den framtida utvecklingen. Resurseffektivitetsbegreppet som används i den här avhandlingen inkluderar ett miljömässigt och ett ekonomiskt perspektiv liksom ett övergripande samhälleligt perspektiv. När det gäller ett regionalt resursperspektiv har Östergötland använts för att med hjälp av två scenarier för år 2030 ta fram en biodrivmedelspotential utifrån en bedömning av en socio-teknisk utvecklingspotential i förhållande till regionala resurser. Scenarierna togs fram med hjälp av semistrukturerade intervjuer med aktörer i branschen, litteraturstudier och i vissa fall med hjälp av sakkunniga. I scenario EXPAN (expansionsscenario) antogs en fortsatt teknikutveckling i linje med den hittills-varande och en samtidig ökning av tillgängligheten av potentiella resurser inom framförallt jordbrukssektorn och avfallssektorn (inkluderat också restproduktsresurser inom industrin) för biodrivmedelsproduktion. I scenario INNTEK (Innovations och teknikutvecklingsscenario) har utöver ytterligare antagen tillgänglig jordbruksmark också större tekniksprång antagits som möjliggör användning av icke konventionella råvaror för biodrivmedelsproduktion, samt förbättrad insamling/tillgängliggörande av vissa råvaror. I potentialen har biomassa från fyra olika sektorer inkluderats; avfall, jordbruk, skogsbruk och akvatiska miljöer. En viktig biomassaresurs som inte inkluderats i denna potentialstudie, men som vanligen inkluderas i potentialstudier, är lignocellulosarika material från skogen. Detta var ett val som också stöddes av de regionala aktörerna som i den här studien bedömde det som mindre sannolikt att någon storskalig användning av sådana råvaror kommer att finnas i regionen inom den aktuella tidsramen. När det gäller jordbruksmark som kan utnyttjas för bioenergiproduktion så har en andel på 30% antagits, varav 15% redan idag utnyttjas till spannmålsodling för produktion av etanol. På de ytterligare 15% som antas kunna tas i anspråk för biodrivmedelsändamål år 2030, har vallodling för biogasändamål antagits i denna studie. Akvatisk biomassa ingår ofta inte i bioenergipotentialstudier, men har inkluderats här eftersom alger skulle kunna vara ett intressant substrat för biogasproduktion, men också för att algskörd i akvatiska miljöer skulle kunna ses som en multifunktionell åtgärd med ytterligare miljönytta som t.ex. minskad övergödning i Östersjön. Med antagandet att energibehovet inom transportsektorn blir lika stort år 2030 som år 2010, skulle upp till 30% av de fossila drivmedlen kunna ersättas av biodrivmedel i scenario EXPAN och upp till 50% i scenario INNTEK, utan att större intressekonflikter skulle uppstå i förhållande till andra behov såsom mat eller foderproduktion. I potentialstudien har vidare produktionssystem för biogas prioriterats eftersom sådana system bedömdes ha stor potential när det gäller resurseffektivitet. Först och främst för att de har stor kapacitet när det gäller användning av restprodukter, men också för att de kan bidra till att sluta kretsloppet av växtnäringsämnen om rötresten återförs till åkermark. Nyttiggörande av restprodukter och avfall kräver emellertid i många fall samarbete mellan olika aktörer i samhället. Inom forskningsfältet industriell symbios studerar man bl. a. hur samarbeten kring energi- och materialflöden mellan aktörer uppstår och i vilken utsträckning samarbetsgraden kan bidra till att förbättra miljöprestandan och ekonomiska prestanda i systemen. Dessa perspektiv är intressanta i förhållande till biodrivmedel eftersom produktionen av dessa är förknippad med ett stort antal energi- och materialflöden samtidigt som resurseffektiviteten är viktig. Hur biodrivmedelsproducenterna organiserar produktionen när det gäller råvaror, energi, biprodukter och produkter och vad som styr detta är därför intressant att studera. I den här avhandlingen studerades hur fyra svenska biodrivmedelsproducenter för tre olika biodrivmedel (etanol, biodiesel och biogas) på den svenska marknaden har organiserat sin produktion, med fokus på energi- och materialflöden, samt hur de planerar att organisera den framöver. Studien baseras framförallt på semi-strukturerade intervjuer med aktörerna samt litteraturstudier. I samtliga fyra fall kunde ett antal samarbeten kring bl.a. material och energiflöden kartläggas samt hur dessa förändrats över tiden. När det gäller framtiden kunde en tydlig strategiomläggning ses i etanolfallet och delvis i biodieselfallet mot en valorisering och diversifiering av rest-/bi-produktflöden. Om denna "bioraffinaderistrategi" lyckas kan den bidra till bättre lönsamhet och bättre resurseffektivitet. I biogasfallen fanns istället strategier för att försöka sänka råvarukostnader genom att hitta råvaror av lägre kvalitet. Också denna strategi kan öka lönsamheten och förbättra resurseffektiviteten, men detta förutsätter att avsättningen av biogödsel också kan lösas på ett lönsamt sätt. Detta är en fortsatt stor utmaning för biogasproducenterna. En av de viktigaste kritiska faktorerna för de olika samarbetsprojekten var EUs förnybarhetsdirektiv som nämndes i samband med de flesta samarbetsprojekt och som här sågs som en miljömässig drivkraft. Också det långsiktiga byggandet av gröna varumärken verkar vara en drivkraft, åtminstone när det gäller vissa samarbetsprojekt. Samtliga biodrivmedelsproducenter kämpar idag med lönsamheten varför också de ekonomiska aspekterna kring samarbeten är mycket väsentliga.

Die Trauben-Eiche (Quercus petraea [MATT.] LIEBL.) ist ökologisch wie ökonomisch eine prägende Baumart im nordostdeutschen Tiefland. Seit längerer Zeit haben jedoch lokal bis regional drastische Vitalitätseinbußen zu Diskussionen um ihre Verwendbarkeit für den Wald der Zukunft geführt. Vor dem Hintergrund fortschreitender Veränderungen des Klimas stellen sich Fragen nach der Anpassungsfähigkeit der Baumart im Sinne der Überlebensfähigkeit, nach den Beziehungen zwischen Vitalitätszustand und Wuchsverhalten sowie nach möglichen Entwicklungstendenzen dieser Parameter. Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht die Zusammenhänge zwischen Vitalität und Zuwachs sowie die Effekte der Witterung auf die Jahrringbreite als wesentlichem Vitalitätsindikator. Die retrospektive Analyse dieser Beziehungen dient dazu, das mögliche Verhalten des Witterungs-Zuwachs-Komplexes in der Zukunft abzuschätzen und damit die Risiken einer forstlichen Schwerpunktsetzung auf die Trauben-Eiche in Nordostdeutschland genauer zu fassen. Die Untersuchungen fußen auf zwei Versuchsflächen-Sets. Die Kernflächen K1-K5 umfassen fünf Mischbestände aus Trauben-Eichen und Kiefern (Pinus sylvestris L.) entlang eines Gradienten von Sachsen-Anhalt bis Ostpolen im Altern von etwa 110-150 Jahren auf Standorten mittlerer Nährkraft und durchschnittlicher Wasserversorgung. Dieses Set wird erweitert durch 20 Zusatzflächen im Osten bis Süden des Landes Brandenburg, ebenfalls zum größten Teil in Mischbeständen mit Kiefer. Neben den ertragskundlichen Basisaufnahmen wurden auf den Versuchsflächen Bohrkerne an Stichproben des herrschenden Bestandes entnommen. Zu allen Flächen liegen die Angaben der forstlichen Standortkartierung über die Nährkraftstufe und die Wasserversorgung sowie Zeitreihen von Tagesmitteltemperaturen und Niederschlagstagessummen vor. Als Szenariodaten werden die Medianläufe des 2-Kelvin-Szenarios mit dem Regionalisierungsmodell STAR 2 auf Grundlage des SRES-A1B-Szenarios verwendet. Zur Einschätzung der Vitalität der Trauben-Eichen in den Untersuchungsbeständen wurde 2006-2011 der prozentuale Laubverlust im Sommerzustand nach dem Standard der Waldzustandserhebungen erfasst (EICHHORN et al. 2006). Parallel wurde der Kronenzustand im Winter nach dem Schema von KÖRVER et al. (1999) beurteilt. Als Indikatoren für die Vitalität der Trauben-Eichen standen die Jahrringbreite und die Zuwachsrate ("Jahrringindex") im Mittelpunkt der Untersuchungen. Für die Zeitreihen der Jahrringbreite wurden die Parameter Autokorrelation und Sensitivität für die gesamte Zeitreihe sowie als gleitende Mittel hergeleitet und interpretiert. Im Programmpaket "CLIMTREG" (BECK et al. 2013) erfolgten anschließend die Trendeliminierung und die AR(1)-Modellierung zur Entfernung autokorrelativer Effekte aus den baumspezifischen Jahrringindex-Zeitreihen. Die Identifikation von Weiserjahren stützte sich auf die Verteilungsparameter Mittelwert und Standardabweichung der Einzelbaum-Jahrringindizes pro Jahr. Aus den individuellen Zeitreihen des Jahrringindexes wurde die mittlere bestandesbezogene Index-Zeitreihe (= Chronologie) errechnet. Zur Quantifizierung der Witterungs-Zuwachs-Beziehungen wurden die Analyse-Tools CLIMTREG (mit tagesgenauer Auflösung) sowie "bootRes" für R (monatliche Auflösung; ZANG & BIONDI 2012) verwendet, in die Daten der jeweils nächstliegenden Wetterstationen sowie Zeitreihen des mittleren Jahrringindexes eingesteuert wurden. Die Auswertungen zeigten, dass sich im Untersuchungszeitraum 2006-2011 Belaubungsgrad und Kronenstruktur für die Mehrzahl der untersuchten Bäume deutlich verbessert haben. Mit dem relativen Kreisflächenzuwachs ist die Kronenstruktur (hochsignifikant) über alle Kernflächen hinweg straffer positiv korreliert als der Laubverlust (nicht signifikant). Bei gleichem BHD sind größere Kronenflächen sowohl mit besseren Kronenstrukturwerten als auch mit einem geringeren Laubverlust gekoppelt. Der jährliche Radialzuwachs nimmt im Mittel der Kernflächen seit mehreren Jahrzehnten zu. Auf den Zusatzflächen liegen die mittleren Jahrringbreiten etwa auf Ertragstafelniveau (ERTELD 1963). Die absolut und relativ höchsten Zuwächse 2006-2011 zeigten die polnischen Kernflächen. Die Korrelationen der Jahrringindizes (JRI) mit dem Niederschlag sind etwas straffer als mit der Temperatur, aber nur selten signifikant. Die für die Vegetationsperiode berechneten Korrelationskoeffizienten sind in keinem Fall höher als die für das Gesamtjahr ermittelten. Bei der Prüfung dendroklimatologischer Zusammenhänge auf Monatsebene mit bootRes zeigen die Flächen K1 und K3 ein ähnliches Bild: Höhere Jahrringindizes sind mit überdurchschnittlichen Niederschlägen vor allem in den Wintermonaten sowie im Spätsommer bis Frühherbst des Wuchsjahres gekoppelt. Auf den übrigen Kernflächen sind die Zusammenhänge im Vergleich weniger straff. Zwischen herrschendem und beherrschtem Bestand gibt es kaum Unterschiede in der Reaktion des Jahrringindex auf die Witterung. Die Beziehungen zu den Mitteltemperaturen sind etwas schwächer ausgeprägt. Auf allen Flächen sind vorrangig kühle Spätfrühlings- und Frühsommermonate mit überdurchschnittlichen Jahrringindizes verbunden. Analysen durch moving windows zeigen für einige Flächen im Lauf der Zeit zunehmende Korrelationen zwischen Witterung und Jahrringindex. In Zusammenfassung aller Flächen ergeben sich für die zweite Hälfte der Untersuchungsperiode deutlich mehr signifikante Zusammenhänge als in der ersten. Nach den Auswertungen mit CLIMTREG führen fast überall hohe Niederschläge bei niedrigen Temperaturen im Hochsommer des Vorjahres zu überdurchschnittlichen Zuwachsraten. Außerdem fördern erhöhte Niederschlagsmengen von Ende November bis in den Februar, zum Teil auch höhere Temperaturen, die Jahrringbildung. Das dritte auffällige Intervall ist die Zeit von Anfang April bis Mitte Juli mit höheren Zuwachsraten bei niedrigen Temperaturen und überdurchschnittlichen Niederschlägen. Die Modellierung von Jahrringindex-Zeitreihen für den Szenariozeitraum 2001-2055 auf Basis unterschiedlicher Kalibrierungszeiträume ergibt in den meisten Fällen die höchsten mittleren Jahrringindizes (JRI) für das mit der zweiten Hälfte des Gesamtuntersuchungsintervalls 1951-2006 parametrisierte Modell. Im Vergleich unterschiedlicher Kalibrierungszeiträume verändern die von CLIMTREG identifizierten zuwachswirksamen Zeiträume in der Regel weder ihre Lage noch ihre Länge in wesentlichem Ausmaß. Auffällig ist jedoch, dass die Richtung der Zusammenhänge in der jüngeren Vergangenheit uneinheitlicher wird. Auf Basis der Untersuchungsergebnisse leitet die Studie Chancen und Risiken ab, die für die Trauben-Eiche unter dem Einfluss des genutzten Witterungsszenarios im Untersuchungsgebiet maßgeblich sind. Die Handlungsoptionen zum Stärken der Anpassungsfähigkeit umfassen im Wesentlichen die Steuerung der negativen und positiven Einflüsse, die dem menschlichen Einfluss zugänglich sind. Dazu gehört die Förderung der individuellen Vitalität und Elastizität durch optimal entwickelte Kronen und Wurzelsysteme. Die Mischung mit anderen Baumarten steigert die Bestandesstabilität, wobei die relative Konkurrenzschwäche der Eiche zu berücksichtigen ist. Verjüngungsmaßnahmen sollten auf die Erhaltung und Steigerung der genetischen Vielfalt ausgerichtet sein und Individuen mit überdurchschnittlicher Vitalität besonders fördern. Die Konkurrenz um Wasser kann – unter Beachtung des Risikos zusätzlicher Verdunstung –durch geringere Bestandesdichten reduziert werden. Die größten Erfolgsaussichten für diese Aktivitäten bestehen auf Standorten höherer Wasserspeicherkapazität und Nährkraft. Ein angepasstes Monitoring sollte Bedrohungen zum Beispiel durch Insektenmassenvermehrungen rechtzeitig erkennen, gegen die alle Bekämpfungsmöglichkeiten auszuschöpfen sind. Auf gesellschaftlicher Ebene ist eine umfassende Diskussion zu den Zielen und Methoden der Waldbewirtschaftung zu führen, um eine höhere Wertschätzung und Langfristigkeit gezielter Eichenförderung zu erreichen. ; Sessile oak (Quercus petraea [MATT.] LIEBL.) is an important tree species in the northeastern lowlands of Germany. The widespread introduction of the species into mature Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands as a means of ecological forest conversion has further enhanced its relevance in forest science and management. For a few decades, however, increasing numbers of trees and stands showing a severe decline in vitality have led to critical discussions on the possible role of oaks in today's forest development strategies. The adaptive capacity of Sessile oak will be further challenged by climate change in the future. In this context, more information is needed on the relations between the vitality status and growth, including the development of these relations in the next decades. Thus, the study investigates the dependencies between annual radial increment in Quercus petraea (measured as tree-ring width, TRW) and individual-tree vitality as well as the effects of climatic variables on TRW on different temporal scales. Investigations were carried out using two sets of trial plots. The core plot sequence K1-K5 comprises five mature mixed stands of Sessile oak with Scots pine along a gradient from Saxony-Anhalt to eastern Poland. Trees are 110-150 years old and grow on sandy and partly podsolic cambisols with average water supply. A set of 20 additional plots was established in mixed oak-pine stands in Brandenburg. In addition to growth and yield data for the whole plot, increment cores were extracted from a representative sample of 20 trees per plot. Time series data of local daily mean temperatures and daily precipitation sum were provided by the Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research. Data for 2007-2060 come from the median scenario of the regional climate model "STAR 2" based on the SRES-scenario A1B and assumes an increase in temperature of two Kelvin until 2060. Individual vitality was recorded from 2006 to 2011on the core plots (i) according to the European standard method for the assessment of crown condition based on defoliation percentages in summer (EICHHORN et al. 2006) and (ii) following the approach by KÖRVER et al. (1999) for crown structure classification in winter. Both methods were applied to all dominant and co-dominant oaks in the five subsequent years. Trees on the additional plots were assessed only once. Because they are regarded a reliable indicator of tree vitality, annual radial increment as expressed in tree-ring width (TRW) and the resulting growth rate (tree-ring index) are at the center of the analyses. For TRW time series the parameters autocorrelation and sensitivity were calculated both for the whole investigation period and as floating means ("moving windows"). The program "CLIMTREG" (BECK et al. 2013) was applied to eliminate long-term trends in individual TRW series by means of cubic spline functions and to minimize auto-correlation within the resulting TRI time series. Pointer years were identified on the basis of the mean and standard deviation of annual TRI distributions. Plot-specific "chronologies" were calculated as arithmetic means of all "typical" tree-specific TRI series per plot. To analyze the relations between climate and growth, the programs CLIMTREG (for daily climate data resolution) and "bootRes" for R (monthly resolution; ZANG & BIONDI 2012) were applied to local climate data and the TRI chronologies. The repeated assessments show that during the interval 2006-2011 crown condition as expressed in summer foliage as well as in crown structure has improved considerably. Crown structure values are correlated more closely to individual basal area increment than defoliation percentages. At the same DBH, trees with larger crowns exhibit a significantly better crown structure and less defoliation. Annual radial increment has been increasing on the core plots over the past decades, thus the increment level of the dominant trees is on average slightly higher than that of the first yield class in the table by ERTELD (1963). On the additional plots, mean TRW is parallel to yield table values but shows a slowly decreasing trend in a number of stands. The two core plots in Poland exhibited the highest radial increments 2006-2011, both absolutely and relatively. On the annual level, TRI time series are correlated more closely to precipitation sums than to annual mean temperatures. Except for one of the additional plots, the respective correlation coefficients are statistically insignificant. Correlations did not increase when climate parameters were calculated exclusively for the vegetation period instead of the whole year. According to dendroclimatological analyses on the monthly scale with bootRes, trees on core plots K1 and K3 respond almost similarly to climatic influences: High TRI values are related to above-average precipitation mainly during the winter months, as well as in late summer and early fall of the year of growth. On the other core plots, dependencies are less clear. The relations of TRI to monthly temperature are weaker than those to precipitation with the same ranking of plots regarding their sensitivity. The most favorable influence on TRI is exerted by cool spring to early summer months in the year of growth. Correlation patterns are very similar for both dominant and suppressed trees. Separate analyses of the first and the last half of the investigated interval show that the strength of correlations between TRI and climatic variables has been increasing over the past decades. When summarized over all plots, there were distinctly more significant correlation coefficients in the period from 1984-2006 than from 1951-1983. The analyses using CLIMTREG showed that high summer precipitation in the preceding year clearly promotes above-average TRI values. Another conspicuous climate-influenced time period ranges from late November to February with positive correlations both to precipitation and to temperature (at least partly). The third important period for TRI in most trees on the core plots starts in early April and lasts until Mid-July. During this time, high TRI values are correlated with low temperatures and high precipitation. For most of the plots, the average modeled TRI is higher if the second half of the data interval 1951-2006 is used for calibration rather than the entire interval or its first half. The results of the models based on different calibration periods do not differ very much in terms of the identified variables (i.e. length of influential period and type of climatic parameter). However, the direction of correlations becomes more variable in the more recent past. The results of this study are summarized in a number of risks and opportunities regarding future vitality and growth of Sessile oak under regional conditions. Finally, several options of silvicultural management to support vitality and growth of the species are recommended. These consist basically in promoting favorable conditions and limiting negative influences. A large crown with dense foliage and a well-developed root system are crucial conditions for individual vitality which should be strengthened for instance by reducing stand densities at an early age. Mixed stands have a higher stability towards disturbances and provide more diverse habitats for natural antagonists against defoliators. The relatively weak competitiveness of oaks should be taken into account when advocating mixed stands. Regeneration activities should enhance genetic diversity, promote phenotypes with above-average vitality, and accelerate the adaptation of the species by "assisted migration" of drought-tolerant provenances. Competition for water may be eased by lower stand densities. However, the canopy should be kept sufficiently closed to prevent excessive growth of ground vegetation or increased evapotranspiration. An adapted system to monitor forest growth and vitality should be used to technically assist the species in counteracting major insect outbreaks and other severe biotic risks as early as possible. On a more general level, productive discussions are needed between all stakeholders, interest groups, and the public on the social and political role of forests and the required level of management. This should lead to a stable social and political appreciation of forestry and provide the resources and staff necessary to cope with an uncertain future.