Multilateral Matters is the quarterly publication of the Centre for Multilateralism Studies (CMS), analyzing the most recent developments regarding multilateralism by our team. It covers articles on relevant economic and political issues as well as programmed and latest publications from the research center. The objective of the newsletter is to promote the research being done by our centre, raising awareness of the many events that we hold on a regular basis.
Azerbaijan became the country among the post-soviet countries, that allocated the largest share of GDP, in order to eliminate the economic challenges caused due to the outbreak of COVID-19. Providing favorable economic conditions in the post-pandemic period is as crucial as supporting the economy during the period of the pandemic. Thus, it seems like all implemented programs and activities, including the huge amount of government funding, is going to maintain the economic balance and provide the development over the long-term period. It is an undeniable fact that the impact of the pandemic on the economy might be fully assessed only over time. Experience demonstrates that early evaluation may lead to even greater recession and instability. This paper aims to demonstrate the challenges faced by Azerbaijan in the framework of the fight against a pandemic. Since the economy of a country was affected, a detailed analysis may provide a better understanding of the outcome, enlightening the areas which need more support and development.
Developing Asia has suffered as the COVID-19 pandemic persists. Growth, trade, and tourism collapsed in 2020, leading to the region's first economic contraction in nearly 6 decades. Governments across Asia acted quickly to contain the virus and its economic effects, and signs of bottoming out have now appeared. Inflation remains benign, constrained by depressed demand and declining food prices. A prolonged pandemic is the primary downside risk to the outlook. Persistent or renewed outbreaks and a return to stringent containment could possibly derail the recovery and trigger financial turmoil. Recovery depends on measures to address the health crisis and on continued policy support. The pandemic has highlighted the importance of wellness, both physical and mental. Wellness—the pursuit of holistic health and well-being—is a component of the UN's Sustainable Development Goals. This report evaluates the state of wellness in Asia, documents how the wellness economy is a large and growing part of the region's economy, and discusses how policy makers can promote wellness by creating healthy living environments, encouraging physical activity and healthy diets, and enhancing workplace wellness.
Developing Asia has suffered as the COVID-19 pandemic persists. Growth, trade, and tourism collapsed in 2020, leading to the region's first economic contraction in nearly 6 decades. Governments across Asia acted quickly to contain the virus and its economic effects, and signs of bottoming out have now appeared. Inflation remains benign, constrained by depressed demand and declining food prices. A prolonged pandemic is the primary downside risk to the outlook. Persistent or renewed outbreaks and a return to stringent containment could possibly derail the recovery and trigger financial turmoil. Recovery depends on measures to address the health crisis and on continued policy support. The pandemic has highlighted the importance of wellness, both physical and mental. Wellness—the pursuit of holistic health and well-being—is a component of the UN's Sustainable Development Goals. This report evaluates the state of wellness in Asia, documents how the wellness economy is a large and growing part of the region's economy, and discusses how policy makers can promote wellness by creating healthy living environments, encouraging physical activity and healthy diets, and enhancing workplace wellness.
Like many regions across the globe, the Western Balkans is struggling with the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. The region's most salient problems of prolonged political instability, economic stagnation, and emigration of its best and brightest, have worsened during the pandemic. Moving forward, the extent of the economic and social damage will be determined by two variables: the extent of political instability and the depth of the recession in the EU.
COVID-19 is transforming cities globally. Across the world, cities have been hotspots for COVID-19 outbreaks, but they have also been at the forefront of efforts to adapt and innovate to protect citizens from COVID-19 and the damage it is causing. So far, cities across Myanmar have rightly focused on managing their short-term response to the COVID- 19 pandemic. DAOs and CDCs have been stretching their resources to implement lockdown measures, support businesses and meet residents' basic needs. However, as it is becoming clear that COVID-19's effects will not disappear quickly, it is important that DAOs/CDCs also consider how they can keep functioning sustainably in the longer-term. This report looks specifically at the sources of municipal revenue which cities need to keep running. It considers how revenues could be affected by COVID-19 and what DAOs and CDCs can do about these effects. DAOs and CDCs receive minimal financial support from Myanmar subnational and union governments and so must levy a mixture of taxes and fees on local economic activity to fund their activities. The arrival of COVID-19 has caused a slowdown in local economic activity and made it practically challenging for DAO/CDC officials to collect some revenues safely. The result is that municipalities face a difficult challenge – just as municipal revenues are urgently needed to fund a swift response to COVID-19 and sustain urban services, municipalities face the prospect of a dramatic decline in revenues. This report considers how DAOs and CDCs can respond sustainably to this new challenge. Although COVID-19 in Myanmar could remain relatively well contained with lesser health implications than in neighbouring countries, there is still a huge amount of scientific, economic and political uncertainty facing cities. The economic shock from COVID-19 is likely to be global and the risk of a second outbreak of infections is a very real threat.1 In a best-case scenario where the effects of virus are contained, we hope this report provides a useful overview of municipal revenues. In a worst-case scenario, where COVID-19 wreaks extreme public health and economic damage across Myanmar's cities, we hope that this analysis can provide a useful tool for quickly adjusting local revenue policy. Section 2 of this note looks at the current sources of municipal revenue in Taunggyi, Pathein and Mandalay to identify which sources of revenue are most important for municipalities. Section 3 considers the characteristics of each source of revenue in detail and how they are likely to be impacted by COVID-19. Section 4 considers the policy options available to DAOs, and Section 5 presents a scenario analysis exploring the possible impact of different policy options. Finally, Section 6 concludes.
This paper addresses the question whether and how co-benefits, through disaster resilience building, can be further promoted. Co-benefits are defined as positive externalities that arise deliberately as a result of a joint strategy that pursues several objectives synergistically at the same time, such as disaster risk management and development goals, or disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. Of particular interest is the question of how the economic and broader benefits of disaster risk management can be recognized and realized by those in charge of fiscal policy decisions. The paper considers the interplay between public disaster risk management investment and fiscal policy, and provides an overview of the current debate as well as assessment methods, tools, and policy options. In fiscal budgeting, it has been standard practice to focus on direct liabilities and recurrent spending. Costs of disasters are often dealt with after the fact only, rather than being considered as contingent liabilities. As a consequence, the full costs of disasters have often not been budgeted for, and, with a price signal missing, there is lack of clear incentives for investing in disaster risk management. Overall, the paper identifies four steps and three dividends to be harnessed: (i) understanding fiscal risk; (ii) protecting public finance through risk financing instruments, the first dividend; (iii) managing disaster risk comprehensively, the second dividend; and (iv) pursuing a synergistic, co-benefits strategy of concurrently managing disaster risks and promoting development, the third dividend.
Lesotho is one of the poorest countries in Southern Africa, and has one of the highest income inequality in the world. Home to about 2 million people, Lesotho is surrounded by South Africa, the second largest and most industrialized economy in Africa. Lesotho generates income mainly by exporting textiles, water, and diamonds, and is a member of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), the Southern African Development Community (SADC), and the Common Monetary Area (CMA). The national currency, the loti, is pegged to the South African rand. Lesotho's main trading partners are South Africa and the United States. The CPF will seek to mitigate four substantial risks to the implementation of the WBG program: (a) political and governance; (b) macroeconomic; (c) climate change and climate- induced disasters; and (d) operating risks (capacity and fiduciary). The lessons from the Country Assistance Strategy Completion and Learning Report (CPS CLR) will play an important role in addressing these risks. The CPF will give high importance to quality and risks at entry for new operations, and continue strong monitoring and supervision. These mitigation factors are essential for achieving sustainable results.
The objective of the report is to raise awareness of the fiscal impacts that natural disasters have on the budget of the Government of Sri Lanka. It is envisioned to be used as a planning tool for the potential development of a comprehensive disaster risk financing and insurance strategy that would equip the Ministry of Finance with additional instruments to manage the contingent liability posed by disasters. Its recommendations are a starting point for a collaborative discussion with the government on the potential development of a broad program.
A growing number of states and municipalities in Brazil rely on results-based management, and many other local and state governments are considering adopting the practice. This paper examines the experiences of the Brazilian states that have implemented results agreements linked to variable pay. The analysis compares current with pre-intervention outcomes in the education, health, and security sectors. The changes are examined in relation to regional trends to determine whether the improvements depart in meaningful ways from the overall trend. In addition, a truncated time-series cross-section model is used to control for several additional factors influencing service delivery outcomes. The results suggest that, at least in the short and medium term, the implementation of results agreements is associated with significant and positive changes in outcomes in the security and education sectors. On average, states using team-level targets and performance-related pay have 15 fewer homicides per 100,000 inhabitants than those that do not, all else equal. Similarly, states that have introduced performance agreements and a bonus for teachers and school staff have improved their Basic Education Development Index score for public secondary schools by 0.3 additional points compared with the scores of states with similar characteristics. The conclusions are in line with the findings of in-depth impact evaluations and case study work in the education and security sectors (Bruns, Evans and Luque 2011, Milagres de Assis 2012). The paper does not analyze unit or team level data, which would be necessary to draw more rigorous conclusions about how results-based interventions affect the behavior of civil servants and outcomes over time. Therefore, the results should be interpreted with caution, as some of the assumptions behind the models cannot be examined with the available data.
This report presents a review of current issues in the pharmaceutical sector in Bulgaria, examining drug policy, regulation, pricing, formulary selection, distribution, expenditure, and to the extent possible, patterns of use in Bulgaria. Its recommendations are intended to serve as options for reform, by articulating short and long term strategies for managing pharmaceutical expenditure, improving system sustainability, and driving value for money in Bulgaria, thereby improving efficiency, equity, affordability and ultimately, access to prescription medicines. Although small, the Bulgarian pharmaceutical market is showing strong growth. Medicines comprise not only a disproportionate share of health care expenditure (38 percent of total health expenditure, compared with an EU average of around 25 percent), the burden of out of pocket (OOP) costs is also excessive, possibly as high as 81 percent of total pharmaceutical expenditure. Of perhaps greatest concern is that rapid expenditure growth is taking place without obvious improvements in health outcomes, and at the expense of population equity. Bulgaria does not yet have an integrated national medicines policy, and the pharmaceutical sector is characterized by various highly prescriptive and at times, arguably inconsistent policy levers. While the regulatory framework has been largely brought into line with current EU standards, existing mechanisms for listing, pricing and subsidizing medicines are not ensuring adequate value for money for the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF), and are contributing to inefficiencies in the health sector. Current pharmaceutical policy settings appear focused on limiting NHIF outlays rather than prioritizing access and affordability, and afford little financial protection to patients.
Turkey now hosts the largest refugee population in the world. The Government of Turkey (GoT) estimates the total number of registered Syrians under Temporary Protection (SuTPs) at 2,225,147. The objective of this policy brief is to collate existing publically available material on the situation of SuTPs in Turkey and to summarize: (i) the strategy and principles of Turkey's unique response to its displacement crisis; (ii) the challenges in managing the socioeconomic dimensions of displacement; and (iii) remaining critical policy issues and the road ahead for Turkey, as well as implications for other countries' refugee response efforts.
The systematic country diagnostic (SCD) is designed to identify the most critical binding constraints and opportunities facing Indonesia in ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity. In line with the World Bank Group's (WBG's) new country engagement model, the findings of the SCD will provide inputs for the preparation of the country partnership framework (CPF), which will outline the WBG's engagement with Indonesia to achieve the twin goals. This SCD has four main conceptual elements. First, analyze past trends in growth, poverty, and inequality to highlight the deep drivers. Second, identify the key channels for reducing poverty and boosting the prosperity of the Bottom 40 percent. Third, highlight the major challenges and opportunities along each of the key channels, and finally identify prioritized areas of intervention to accelerate progress toward ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity for each of the channels identified.
Uruguay is a country of about 3.3 million people, which has consistently given high priority to achieving broadly-shared economic growth and a sustainable reduction in poverty. A strong and progressive social compact has been a defining feature of Uruguayan society and politics, with consistent emphasis placed on protecting vulnerable groups, assuring worker dignity and promoting equitable growth. This compact, combined with rapid economic growth since 2003, has contributed to the development of a sizeable middle class, at 60 percent, the largest in Latin America as a proportion of the population, as well as effective institutions, good governance and, in consequence, a high degree of public trust in Government. The resultant political stability has been a fundamental element of Uruguay's success in attaining its present standards of living. This Country Partnership Framework (CPF) is aligned with Uruguay's 2015-2020 political cycle and selectivity has been exercised in the identification of objectives. The design of the CPF program responds to the Government's priorities and is also closely coordinated with the programs of Uruguay's other development partners, including IADB and CAF. The program is anchored in the findings of the new Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) which was informed by extensive consultations with a wide range of stakeholders. The proposed CPF program is designed to support the Government in its pursuit of six objectives identified in the SCD, grouped into three focal areas, namely, building resilience, rebalancing the social compact, and integrating Uruguay into global markets. During consultations, the Government endorsed the selection of focal areas (CPF's pillars and objectives) and the technical teams closely coordinated with the Bank experts who designed a set of indicators, which are fully owned.
In past four years, the World Bank, in close cooperation with the Government of Zimbabwe, and the support of international partners - has carried out a number of studies and technical assistance activities in key areas of the socio-economic recovery. In line with Bank's Africa strategy of fostering Africa's economic transformation and poverty reduction, the overall goal of these studies has been to support broad-based development of Zimbabwe by facilitating evidence-based debate and policy-making. As a new government for 2013-2018 is about to take function, sectoral teams at the World Bank have distilled key analysis from those studies, and prepared the short policy notes. The policy notes attempt to summarize the main findings, challenges, constraints, and lay out policy options. While the past decade of hyperinflation and weak economic management has undoubtedly eroded a significant share of Zimbabwes physical and human capital, these can be rebuilt with the combination of sound economic policy and proper incentives to private sector investors, both domestic and foreign. It is therefore imperative that, however policymakers choose to proceed with regard to the future direction of the economy, they deliver well-articulated, credible, and stable economic policies. Such policies will enable and unleash the creative energies and entrepreneurial spirit of the private sector, the one that has delivered so often in the past. The policy note highlights the breadth and complexity of challenges in fostering long-term development. Addressing these challenges is a long haul task that will require a good sense of overarching priorities, as well as strong commitment to long-term objectives and policy consistency.
