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In this paper based on empirical microeconomic choices of households, we use the hedonic pricing method to define the urban form of Nantes Métropole. The number of Central Business Districts (CBDs) should guide the second generation of transport policies in agglomerations subject to the LAURE law (law on air and the rational use of energy). Thus, if improved accessibility is capitalized into residential property values close to public transport, then strengthening the current incentive policy in favor of public transport networks and clean modes seems appropriate to continue to limit the negative externalities generated by car trips in urban areas. Conversely, if improved accessibility is capitalized close to major roads, then a more coercive policy can take over in the form of an urban toll: this will generate revenue to subsequently improving the public transport network. In fact, the econometric Spatial Error Model (SEM) reveals that Nantes situation match neither the one nor the other of these patterns. In line with the theoretical background, acting on transportation costs would nevertheless lead to a higher demand for centrality by house purchasers. So the major component of the local environmental policy could be a prior land-use policy involving a better control of space consumption at any point of the city, coupled with the potential implementation of an urban toll. ; Dans cet article empirique fondé sur les choix micro-économiques des ménages, nous utilisons la méthode des prix hédoniques pour définir la forme urbaine de Nantes Métropole. Le nombre de centralités doit orienter la deuxième génération de politiques de déplacements des agglomérations soumises à la loi LAURE. Ainsi, si des gains d'accessibilité sont capitalisés dans les valeurs immobilières près des transports collectifs, alors le renforcement de l'actuelle politique incitative au bénéfice des réseaux collectifs et des modes doux paraît indiqué pour continuer à limiter les externalités négatives provoquées par les déplacements automobiles ...

Friday May 12 we had the annual Hoover monetary policy conference. Hoover twitter stream here.  Conference webpage and schedule here (update 5/24 now contains videos.) As before, the talks, panels, and comments will eventually be written and published. The Fed has experienced two dramatic institutional failures: Inflation peaking at 8%, and a rash of bank failures. There were panels focused on each, and much surrounding discussion.  We started with a little celebration of the 30th anniversary of Taylor (1993), which put the Taylor rule on the map. As Andy Levin pointed out in the discussion, academic immortality comes when they omit the number after your name. Rich Clarida, Volker Weiland and I quickly outlined some academic influence. John Lipsky added some very interesting commentary on how the Taylor rule was important on Wall Street, and specifically from his experience at Salomon Bros. The second panel on financial regulation was a smash. Anat Admati chaired, with presentations by Darrell Duffie, Randy Quarles, and Amit Seru. Duffie showed how online banking has taken over, and the combination of twitter and online banking makes runs happen much faster than before. You don't have to stand in line, you can all push "withdraw" at once. He also showed a glaring hole in liquidity regulations: A bank cannot count as liquidity its ability to use the discount window at the Fed. Seru covered some of his recent work, showing just how many banks have lost 10% or more of their asset value, and thus the value of their equity. (Nobody mentioned commercial real estate, the next shoe to drop.) They gently disagreed, Darrel viewing more liquidity and better liquidity rules as the main solution, and Amit more equity. All seemed to agree that the current regulatory mechanism is fundamentally broken. Randy gave a thoughtful, eloquent, and impassioned talk laying to rest the common notion that "deregulation" caused SVB to fail. It would have passed all the stress tests. This will be important to read when the papers are all available. I take the implication that the regulatory structure is, again, fundamentally broken. No, more of the current regulations would not have helped. But Randy didn't say that. Peter Henry next presented "Disinflation and the Stock Market: Third World Lessons for First World Monetary Policy" (a paper with Anusha Chari), discussed by Josh Rauh and Chaired by Bill Nelson. A key innovation, they use stock market reactions to measure whether disinflations are a success on a cost/benefit basis. Large inflations seem to end with stock market expansions. Moderate disinflations don't really do much for stock markets. Most disinflationary reforms fail.Over lunch, Haruhiko Kuroda, Former Governor, Bank of Japan updated us on the Japanese situation. He is confident 2% inflation will return soon. Niall Ferguson and Paul Schmelzing presented "The Safety Net: Central Bank Balance Sheets and Financial Crises 1587-2020," (with Martin Kornejew and Moritz Schularick), with Barry Eichengreen discussing and Michael Bordo chair. A taste: The paper concludes that lender of last resort operations do work, and also create moral hazard. Barry had an eloquent discussion, noting among other things that not all balance sheet expansions are the same. Look for those in the written versions. Next, Mickey Levy presented The Fed: Bad Forecasts and Misguided Monetary Policy, Steve Davis discussing and  Jim Wilcox chair. The Fed -- and most industry analysts -- completely missed 8% inflation, both ahead of time and as it was happening. Why? How can the Fed do better? (And why is the Fed not asking this question?) To me, it looks like the forecast is not much more than an AR(1) reversion to 2% inflation. The paper has a good summary of how Fed forecasts are made, along with recommendations for institutional improvement.  Steve Davis had an excellent discussion, pointing to a central incentive problem. The Fed uses forecasts to try to shape expectations. Like pubic health authorities, it can be afraid to reveal actual fears. I also see conceptual flaws -- not much attention to supply or fiscal policy, using the Phillips curve as a causal model and as a model in itself, too much attention to the one-period link from expected inflation to inflation, and too much attention to the forecast rather than risk management; what do we do if things come out differently. The conference day ended with the traditional policy panel, with Jim Bullard (talk here), Philip Jefferson (talk here), Jeff Lacker, and Charlie Plosser, Chaired by John Taylor. Bullard pointed to the huge fiscal stimulus as a source of inflation, warming my heart. He opined that this stimulus is fading, making him hopeful for a soft landing. He presented the following chart. This is a very interesting measure of how much "stimulus" is sitting out there in the economy. The government did write a lot of checks, that went straight to people's bank accounts, and eventually were spent, driving up inflation. On the other hand, I am still a bit shocked that we're running $1 trillion deficit despite beyond-full employment and output revving at every bit that the "supply" side of the economy can produce. What's your measure of fiscal stimulus? Which forecasts inflation? This is a very provocative and interesting idea. Jefferson gave a great talk. He has the measured cadence of a seasoned central banker, but speaks very clearly and directly.  He started by announcing his appointment as vice-chair, which got a well deserved ovation. He then jumped right in: The title of the conference "How to Get Back on Track: A Policy Conference" is potent. Its intent and ambiguity are striking. First, the title presupposes that U.S. monetary policy is currently on the wrong track. Second, the webpage for this conference advances a puzzling definition of the phrase "on track." How so? According to the Hoover webpage, "A key goal of the conference is to examine how to get back on track and, thereby, how to reduce the inflation rate without slowing down economic growth" (emphasis added).1 As this audience knows, there are macroeconomic models that permit disinflation with no slowdown in economic growth, but the assumptions underlying these models are very strong. It's not clear, at least to me, why such a strict metric would be used to assess real-world monetary policymaking....I loved this. It shows he took the time to read up on the conference, and I love seeing basic premises challenged. Later, this struck me as thoughtful: I want to share with you a few strategic principles that are important to me. First, policymakers should be ready to react to a wide range of economic conditions with respect to inflation, unemployment, economic growth, and financial stability. The unprecedented pandemic shock is a good reminder that under extraordinary circumstances it will be difficult to formulate precise forecasts in real time. Our dual mandate from the Congress is especially helpful here. It provides the foundation for all our policy decisions. Second, policymakers should clearly communicate monetary policy decisions to the public. Our commitment to transparency should be evident to the public, and monetary policy should be conducted in a way that anchors longer-term inflation expectations. Third—and this is where I am revealing my passion for econometrics—policymakers should continuously update their priors about how the economy works as new data become available. In other words, it is appropriate to change one's perspective as new facts emerge. In this sense, I am in favor of a Bayesian approach to information processing.The first point brings us back to the problem that the Fed has so far been too silent about: How did it miss 8% inflation? And how to operate when such huge misses are possible? The Fed seems to have been making a forecast, then announcing a policy path that works for the forecast, and then trying to stick to it. In this first principle you see a quite different view. Let's call it data-dependent rather than time-dependent. This is a conference about the Taylor rule. Should the Fed look at more than inflation and employment? Well, yes and no according to these comments. And when models are not certain, distrust and update.Plosser and Lacker previewed an upcoming paper on the Fed's deviation from rules. Stay tuned. The evening started with a delightful speech by Sebastian Edwards on Latin American inflation. Stay tuned for that too. Videos should be up soon, and written versions as fast as we can get authors to turn them in. This is just a teaser!  Update: Videos are now up, with some more commentary here.

Some promises by governments at the UN in 1990-2017 Where is the promised report on the Millennium Declaration? What are our governments committed to? What have they achieved? If governments or intergovernmental organisations mislead on the pledges, does that violate the human rights of the poor? The rich? Main 2015 UN hunger report makes "Millennium" targets easier again Many sources still give a wrong impression that the Declaration baseline is 1990 or that the easier MDG targets were agreed in 2000, some after complaints.

What is the impact of fiscal policy shocks on key macroeconomic variables in Canada? This question triggered renewed interest in the aftermath of the 2008-09 Great Recession. Indeed, as in many advanced economies, fiscal policy in Canada following the recession started with an expansionary phase to boost domestic demand. It progressed to an adjustment phase to reduce public debt and ensure long-term fiscal sustainability and sustained growth. This paper analyzes the effects of fiscal policy shocks on the Canadian economy, building on the sign-restrictions-VAR approach. Unlike previous studies, this paper explicitly accounts for spillovers from the U.S., Canada's main trading partner, and for oil price fluctuations. The findings show that the size and sign of the spending and tax revenue multipliers depend on whether the analysis controls for the exogenous factors. The tax-cut multiplier varies between 0.2 and 0.5, while the spending multiplier ranges between 0.2 and 1.1; the spending multiplier tends to be larger than the tax-cut multiplier over the past two decades.

BACKGROUND: In Chad, malaria is the primary reason for consultation in health facilities with an annual morbidity of 35.39% and a mortality of 51%. Children under five (5) years old and pregnant women pay the heavy price. To reduce the burden of morbidity and mortality, Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention (SMC) in children 3 to 59 months was adopted in 2013. Since then, no impact assessment has been carried out and no model was not proposed. The aim of our work was to model the impact of this innovative strategy on the morbidity and mortality due to malaria in children under five in Chad.METHODS: This is a quasi-experimental study of the "Here-Elsewhere" and "Before – After" type, non-randomized, multicentric and controlled in eight (8) health districts, including four participants in the treatment program (DSP) and four other non-participants in 2015 (DSNP) drawn at random. The data come respectively from the health information system, meteorological and synoptic stations of the National Directorate of National Meteorology and remote sensing. We have resorted respectively to the analysis of time series, the fixed-effects double difference method, the spatial panel and the Kulldorff spatial sweep using the discrete Poisson model at the different stages of the temporal and spatiotemporal modeling of the incidence and mortality due to malaria in children under five (5) years.RESULTS: In the Participating Health Districts (DSP), the malaria incidence rate was modeled in AR (1) with trend and seasonality. While the mortality rate was modeled in AR (2) with only one seasonality. For Non-Participating Health Districts (DSNP), the ARMA model (1,2) with deterministic trend and seasonality was used for the incidence rate and the AR (1) model with seasonality for the mortality rate. The impact of the SMC strategy on the incidence rate (respectively mortality) is significantly non-zero, i.e. SMC has led to a significant reduction in the incidence rate, respectively in the malaria mortality rate in patients. children under 5 who have benefited from the treatment. The results from spatial autocorrelation analyzes show that it is important to take into account the notion of neighborhood and climatological and environmental variables in modeling the incidence of malaria in Chad.The impact of Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention (SMC) measured by the fixed-effect double-difference model demonstrated an increase in the clinical incidence of single cases, reflecting an improvement in hospital attendance of 1.587 ‰ for a febrile episode suggesting clinical malaria, and a decrease in the hospital mortality rate of 1.494 per 100,000. Thus, seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) has significantly contributed to reducing the incidence of severe cases of malaria in children aged 3 to 59 months and hence, reducing severe cases and mortality. Within the family of Spatial Error Models (SEM), the Hausman test allowed us to choose the fixed effect model instead of the random effect model.In addition, we have shown that there is a significantly negative correlation between the increase in the number of CPS treatment cycles and the incidence rates of malaria in children under five (5) years old. Thus, increasing the number of CPS treatment cycles by one unit translates into a decrease in the incidence rate of 0.33. The incidence rate increases steadily from 0.007 month to month in both smc participants and nonparticipants, reflecting a trend previously shown in the time series model.The use of geomatics technology with its great capacity for data collection, the easy updating of databases and its ability to properly manage relevant information such as data. acquired by remote sensing and by GPS receivers, coupled with current developments in statistical and spatial econometrics methods, including the spatial panel and Kulldorff spatial scanning provides a golden toolbox, for decision support in public health and to optimally address the issues of malaria control and elimination from a perspective of social equity of public policies, in particular, in a context.CONCLUSION: The implementation of seasonal malaria chemoprevention (CPS) in Chad had an impact, an increase in the incidence rate of malaria from 1.587 ‰ in the age group 3 to 59 months, a reduction significantly severe cases of malaria thanks to the early use of effective treatment and hospital attendance, children aged 3 to 59 months resulting in a reduction in the mortality rate of 1.494 per 100,000. ; CONTEXTE: Au Tchad, le paludisme demeure le premier motif de consultation dans les formations sanitaires avec une morbidité annuelle de 35,39% et une mortalité de 51%. Les enfants de moins de cinq (5) ans et les femmes enceintes en paient le lourd tribut. Pour réduire la charge de morbidité et de mortalité, la chimio-prévention du paludisme saisonnier (CPS) chez les enfants de 3 à 59 mois a été adoptée en 2013. Depuis lors, aucune évaluation d'impact n'a été réalisée et aucun modèle d'évaluation n'a été proposé. Le but de notre travail, était de modéliser l'impact de cette stratégie novatrice, sur la morbidité et la mortalité dues au paludisme chez les enfants de moins de cinq ans au Tchad.METHODES: Il s'agit d'une etude quasi-experimentale du type « Ici-Ailleurs » et « Avant –Après », non randomisée, multicentrique et contrôlée sur huit (8) districts sanitaires dont quatre participants au programme de traitement (DSP) et quatre autres non participants en 2015 (DSNP) tirés aléatoirement. Les données sont issues respectivement, du système d'information sanitaire, des stations météorologiques et synoptiques de la Direction Nationale de la Météorologie Nationale et la télédétection. Nous avons recouru respectivement à l'analyse des séries temporelles, la méthode de double différence à effets fixes, le panel spatial et le balayage spatial de Kulldorff utilisant le modèle de Poisson discret aux différentes étapes de la modélisation temporelle et spatio-temporelle de l'incidence et de la mortalité dues au paludisme chez les enfants de moins de cinq (5) ans.RESULTATS: Dans les Districts Sanitaires Participants (DSP), le taux d'incidence du paludisme a été modélisé en AR(1) avec une tendance et une saisonnalité. Tandis que le taux de mortalité a été modélisé en AR(2) avec seulement, une saisonnalité. Pour les Districts Sanitaires Non - Participants (DSNP), le modèle ARMA(1,2) avec tendance déterministe et saisonnalité a été retenu pour le taux d'incidence et le modèle AR(1) avec saisonnalité pour le taux de mortalité. L'impact de la stratégie CPS sur le taux d'incidence (respectivement de mortalité) est significativement non nul, c'est à dire que la CPS a entrainé une réduction significative du taux d'incidence, respectivement du taux de mortalité palustre chez les enfants de moins de 5 ans.Les résultats issus des analyses d'autocorrélation spatiale, montrent qu'il est important de prendre en compte, la notion de voisinage et les variables climatologiques et environnementales, dans la modélisation de l'incidence du paludisme au Tchad.L'impact de la Chimioprévention du Paludisme Saisonnier (CPS) mesuré par le modèle à double différence à effets fixes a mis en évidence, une augmentation de l'incidence clinique des cas simple traduisant une amélioration de fréquentation hospitalière de 1,587 ‰ pour épisode fébrile évoquant le paludisme clinique, et une diminution du taux de mortalité hospitalière de 1,494 pour 100.000. Ainsi, la chimioprévention du paludisme saisonnier (CPS) a contribué de manière significative à réduire l'incidence des cas graves de paludisme chez les enfants âgés de 3 à 59 mois et par conséquent, réduisant ainsi les cas graves et la mortalité. Au sein de la famille des Modèles à Erreurs spatiales dits « Spatial Error Model » (SEM), le test de Hausman nous a permis de choisir le modèle à effet fixe en place et lieu du modèle à effet aléatoire. Par ailleurs, nous avons mis en évidence, qu'il existe une corrélation significativement négative, entre l'augmentation du nombre de cycle de traitement CPS et les taux d'incidence du paludisme chez les enfants de moins de cinq (5) ans. Ainsi, l'augmentation du nombre de cycle de traitement CPS d'une unité, se traduit par une baisse du taux d'incidence de 0.33. Le taux d'incidence augmente en pente douce de 0.007 d'un mois à un autre aussi bien chez les participants que les non participants à la CPS traduisant une tendance montrée précédemme dans le modèle ens eries temporelles. Le recours à la technologique géomatique avec sa grande capacité de collecte de donnée, la mise à jour facile des bases de données et son aptitude à la bonne gestion des informations pertinentes telles que celles acquises par télédétection et par récepteurs GPS, couplée aux développements actuels des méthodes statistiques et d'économétrie spatiale dont le panel spatial et le balayage spatial de Kulldorff permet de disposer d'une boite à outils en or, pour l'aide à la décision en santé publique et pour adresser de façon optimale, les questions du contrôle et de l'élimination du paludisme dans une perspective d'équité sociale des politiques publiques, en particulier, dans un contexte de ressources limitées.CONCLUSION: La mise en oeuvre de la chimio-prévention du paludisme saisonnier (CPS) au Tchad a eu comme impact, une augmentation du taux d'incidence du paludisme de 1,587 ‰ dans la tranche d'âge 3 à 59 mois, une réduction de manière significative des cas sévères de paludisme grâce au recours précoce à un traitement efficace et la fréquentation hospitalière, des enfants âgés de 3 à 59 mois se traduisant par une diminution du taux de mortalité de 1,494 pour 100.000.

This paper examines whether an expansion in the supply of public preschool crowds out private enrollment. The paper uses rich data for municipalities in Brazil from 2000 to 2006, where federal transfers to local governments change discontinuously with given population thresholds. The results from a regression-discontinuity design reveal that larger federal transfers lead to a significant expansion of local public preschool services, but show no evidence of crowding out of private enrollment. This finding is consistent with a theory in which households differ in their willingness to pay for preschool services, and private suppliers optimally adjust prices in response to an expansion of lower-quality, free-of-charge public supply.

This study estimates the impact of Kenya's post-election violence on individual risk preferences. Because the crisis interrupted a longitudinal survey of more than five thousand Kenyan youth, this timing creates plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to civil conflict by the time of the survey. The study measures individual risk preferences using hypothetical lottery choice questions, which are validated by showing that they predict migration and entrepreneurship in the cross-section. The results indicate that the post-election violence sharply increased individual risk aversion. Immediately after the crisis, the fraction of subjects who are classified as either risk neutral or risk loving dropped by roughly 26 percent. The findings remain robust to an IV estimation strategy that exploits random assignment of respondents to waves of surveying.

Spatial disparity in incomes and productivity is apparent across and within countries. Most studies of the determinants of such differences focus on cross-country comparisons or location choice among firms. Less studied are the large differences in agricultural productivity within countries related to concentrations of rural poverty. For policy, understanding the determinants of this geography of agricultural productivity is important, because strategies to reduce poverty often feature components designed to boost regional agricultural incomes. Census and endowment data for Ecuador are used to estimate a model of endogenous technology choice to explain large regional differences in agricultural output and factor productivity. A composite-error estimation technique is used to separate systemic determinants from idiosyncratic differences. Simulations are employed to explore policy avenues. The findings suggest a differentiation between the types of policies that promote growth in agriculture generally and those that are more likely to assist the rural poor.

This article analyzes three criteria for labor market integration between Mexico and the United States (U.S.) before and since the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA): the responsiveness of Mexican wages to US wage shocks, the speed at which relative wages return to a long-run differential, and changes in the rate of convergence of absolute wages. Tests for increased integration using these three criteria generate mixed results, which are then explored by directly incorporating trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), and migration. The results suggest that trade and FDI did in fact positively contribute to integration but that the increase in border enforcement depressed Mexican wages, masking the positive benefits.

International audience ; The aim of this paper is to identify the driving forces of Sovereign wealth funds' investments. For this, we develop an original econometric framework that quantifies the role of spatial dependence in the location of investments, and uses the Inverse Hyperbolic Sine transformation of the dependent variable in a spatial panel model context. This transformation copes with two features of net flows, namely an highly skewed distribution and the presence of zero and negative values. Using a large-scale database, we provide evidence of negative spatial dependence, investments in one country being on average at the expense of its neighbors.

International audience ; The aim of this paper is to identify the driving forces of Sovereign wealth funds' investments. For this, we develop an original econometric framework that quantifies the role of spatial dependence in the location of investments, and uses the Inverse Hyperbolic Sine transformation of the dependent variable in a spatial panel model context. This transformation copes with two features of net flows, namely an highly skewed distribution and the presence of zero and negative values. Using a large-scale database, we provide evidence of negative spatial dependence, investments in one country being on average at the expense of its neighbors.

International audience ; The aim of this paper is to identify the driving forces of Sovereign wealth funds' investments. For this, we develop an original econometric framework that quantifies the role of spatial dependence in the location of investments, and uses the Inverse Hyperbolic Sine transformation of the dependent variable in a spatial panel model context. This transformation copes with two features of net flows, namely an highly skewed distribution and the presence of zero and negative values. Using a large-scale database, we provide evidence of negative spatial dependence, investments in one country being on average at the expense of its neighbors.

In this empirical article based on micro economic choices of households, we use the hedonic price method to define the urban shape of Nantes Métropole. The number of centres should guide the second generation of transport policies for agglomerations subject to the Laure Law. Thus, if accessibility gains are capitalised in real estate values close to public transport, then the current incentive policy for collective networks and soft modes seems appropriate in order to continue to limit the negative externalities caused by urban car travel. On the other hand, if these accessibility gains are capitalised near the main roads, then a more stringent urban toll policy can take over: it will generate the necessary revenues for the further improvement of the collective transport network. In fact, the Spatial Error Econometric Model (SEM) shows that Nantes' situation does not appear to correspond to either of these situations. In line with theoretical literature, an action on travel costs would nevertheless lead to a higher demand for centrality by home buyers. It is therefore a prior policy of land management and land densification at all points in the city, coupled with an opportunity study on the introduction of an urban toll, which could be the major element of local environmental policy. ; In this paper based on empirical microeconomic choices of households, we use the hedonic pricing method to define the urban form of Nantes Métropole. The number of Central Business Districts (CBDs) should guide the second generation of transport policies in agglomerations subject to the LAURE law (law on air and the rational use of energy). Thus, if improved accessibility is capitalized into residential property values close to public transport, then strengthening the current incentive policy in favor of public transport networks and clean modes seems appropriate to continue to limit the negative externalities generated by car trips in urban areas. Conversely, if improved accessibility is capitalized close to major roads, then a ...

This Accreditation to supervise PhD in Economics is organized around three keywords; Ageing of the population, health and employment statuses. Both main areas of research are developed: the relations between the health and employment and the impact of ageing on health expenditure ; L'Habilitation à diriger des recherches s'organise autour du triptyque Vieillissement de la population, état de santé et statut d'occupation. Mon programme de recherche se décline en deux axes de recherche principaux : •Les relations entre l'état de santé et le statut d'occupation•L'impact du vieillissement sur les dépenses de santé

This Accreditation to supervise PhD in Economics is organized around three keywords; Ageing of the population, health and employment statuses. Both main areas of research are developed: the relations between the health and employment and the impact of ageing on health expenditure ; L'Habilitation à diriger des recherches s'organise autour du triptyque Vieillissement de la population, état de santé et statut d'occupation. Mon programme de recherche se décline en deux axes de recherche principaux : •Les relations entre l'état de santé et le statut d'occupation•L'impact du vieillissement sur les dépenses de santé