Implications of the Arab Spring
In: American foreign policy interests, Band 33, Heft 6, S. 293-294
ISSN: 1533-2128
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In: American foreign policy interests, Band 33, Heft 6, S. 293-294
ISSN: 1533-2128
In: Contemporary Arab affairs
In: special issue
World Affairs Online
The paper examines whether the Arab Spring phenomenon was predictable by complete elimination in the dispersion of core demands for better governance, more jobs and stable consumer prices. A methodological innovation of the Generalized Methods of Moments is employed to assess the feasibility and timing of the revolution. The empirical evidence reveals that from a projection date of 2007, the Arab Spring was foreseeable between 2011 and 2012. The paper contributes at the same time to the empirics of predicting revolutions and the scarce literature on modeling the future of socio-economic events. Caveats and cautions are discussed.
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ISSN: 1944-785X
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World Affairs Online
In: American foreign policy interests, Band 33, Heft 6, S. 293-294
ISSN: 1533-2128
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