Suchergebnisse

This paper investigates the external debt effect on economic growth in
Tunisia. Our empirical methodology is based on the autoregressive
distributed lag approach. We find that in the long- as well as in the
short-run, external debt had a negative effect on growth over the 1970-2010
period. The longrun effect was slightly higher in the period before the Ben
Ali?s presidency than in the period after. However, during his period, the
external debt short-run effect was the double of that observed during the
period before. These results suggest that an external debt reduction should
favor economic growth in Tunisia.

PurposeThis paper aims to apply the debt sustainability framework using various ratios to review the current state of sovereign debt of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) member countries.Design/methodology/approachDebt sustainability framework using various ratios (which include the present value approach, Country Policy and Institutional Assessment debt policy assessment ranking and solvency ratio of external debt) for the period 2010 and 2017 were used for the analysis to determine external debt sustainability and solvency of ECOWAS members.FindingsThe findings indicate that most ECOWAS countries are already turning at the unsustainable debt path and may renege in their debt obligations, thus creating a vicious cycle of external borrowing that could lead to capital flight.Originality/valueThis paper offers the empirical evidence to identify which of the ECOWAS countries are already at the threshold of external debt stress, and in the likelihood to renege on their debt obligations.

To reveal effects and consequences of high indebtedness on income poverty, this paper explores empirically a linear and non-linear impact of external debt on pro-poor growth in developing and transitional countries. To examine this hypothesis, we test the distribution effect of external debt to GDP, external debt to exports, and debt services to exports on the poorest 20 and 20 to 40 percent in a crosscountry approach. In addition, we estimate the total effect, i.e. the distribution and growth effect, to analyse potential trade-offs between the impact of unsustainable external debt levels on poverty through overall economic growth and via distribution. To test the poverty effects, we collect an irregular and unbalanced panel of time-series cross-country data on the first and second quintile of 58 developing and transitional countries for the period 1970 - 1999. We apply two econometric specifications, a growth equation and a system GMM estimation, to cover econometric issues, cross-country variation and dynamic aspects of within-country changes of the income of the poor. Empirical findings of the impact of the debt indicators on pro-poor growth have to be interpreted carefully due to inconsistent results of the sensitivity analyses. Thus results do not indicate an optimal external debt level with respect to pro?poor growth. On the contrary, higher external debt levels are associated with negative effects on the level of the income of the poorest 40 percent without exhibiting any significant effects on the growth rates. Thus concise policy recommendations with respect to debt sustainability levels and debt relief are difficult. A cautious conclusion would be that debt relief may affect the poor positively, but seems not to be a sufficient policy instrument for improved growth rates of the income of the poorest 40 percent. This policy proposal would be in line with calls for more poverty-targeted capital inflows, as even total debt relief would release only insufficient resources for poverty reducing activities. With this interpretation, however, we abstract from political economy and bad governance issues which may prevent poverty reducing debt relief initiatives.

The Little Data Book on External Debt provides a quick reference for users interested in external debt stocks and flows, major economic aggregates, key debt ratios, and the currency composition of long-term debt for all countries reporting through the Debtor Reporting system. A pocket edition of the Global Development Finance 2008, Volume II: Summary and Country Tables, it contains statistical tables for 135 countries as well as summary tables for regional and income groups

Egypt has a long history with external financing dating back to the 19th century. Nevertheless, Egypt's external debt has been mounting remarkably in the past few years. This paper examines the impact of Egypt's external debt on its price level, a topic ignored by researchers. Nonetheless, as inflation is a hydra‐headed problem, this paper develops several models which incorporate fiscal and monetary policies besides other inflation‐inducing internal and external factors using monthly data extending from 2000M1 to 2020 M1. By employing ARDL cointegration analyses on monthly time series variables and using Egypt's wholesale price index to account for inflation, the paper concludes that external debt raises prices both in the short and long runs. Moreover, money supply and interest rate were also found to increase prices in the long run long despite decreasing them in the short run. Finally, upsurges in the international prices of primary products stimulate domestic prices both in the short and long terms, while depreciation in the local currency aggravates inflation in the short and long terms as well. As external debt raises inflation and affects many other inflation‐inducing factors indirectly, the paper concludes that reducing Egypt's external debt may help in curbing Egypt's inflation.

This annual report provides detailed information on the amount and composition of the external debt of each of 173 countries and territories at the end of 1999, with corresponding revised figures for 1998. In addition, estimates are provided of the amortisation payments due by each country on long-term debt in 2000. These data are reported to the OECD by Member countries' governments and credit institutions, and the main international organisations. Common reporting rules, together with timely reporting, allow for a comprehensive, consistent and up-to-date account of external debt, making this

Against the background of the international debt problem which originated with the oil shocks of the seventies, this book undertakes a theoretical analysis of the factors determining aggregate external debt, using the example of a raw material importing country. Instead of the usual static definition of the trade balance as the difference between the value of exports and imports in a single period, here an intertemporal approach is used with a country's current account balance determined as the difference between aggregate saving and aggregate net investment, variables which are primarily dependent on expectations about the future. The analysis is based on microeconomic optimization models which enables individual causal relationships to be presented in a detailed way, the "optimal" size of external debt to be determined and the desirability of an immediate adjustment in the level of debt following an external disturbance to be shown from a welfare point of view

On the background of continuous global economic instability and debt problems in the Eurozone, the significance of post-communist external debt goes without saying. The article will explore the scope and dynamics of external indebtedness in the post-communist world in a comparative and historical framework. Particular attention will be paid to a likelihood of a debt crisis in the region similar to the one in the developing world in the early 1980s. The debt crisis will be an ultimate price for reform mistakes and may have serious political economy implications by hampering or even reversing the process of the post-communist transformation.

This report supplements the December 1999 edition of External Debt Statistics, which provides figures for debt stocks for 1997 and 1998. This supplement presents time series going back to the mid-1980s for detailed debt service and debt stock data for both major country groups and 173 individual countries and territories. In addition, it provides data on net resource flows to major country groups. These data are reported to the OECD by the governments and credit institutions of its Member countries, and the main international organisations. Common reporting rules allow for a comprehensive and

In this paper it is argued that the willingness of debtors to make external debt-service payments reflects, in part, their inability to credibly and permanently suspend debt service. The benefits of a credible debt-service suspension would include increased private investment. Buth this would, in turn, tend to create conditions in which it would then be optimal for the government to resume payments. Thus, debt reamins a threat even after the announcement of suspension of debt service. It follows that the expected benefits of such a suspension are limited and may be offset by penalties imposed by creditors.

A recent article in thisJournal, X, I, May 1972, by Robert E. Miller and Peter R. Carter on 'A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Liberia', examined the general cost pattern inherent in concession agreements based upon her 'Open-Door Policy', and noted that 'officials of the Government of Liberia who are responsible for negotiating foreign concessionaire agreements… now recognise this pattern and hopefully plan better bargains in the future'. I wish to focus attention on Liberia's external debts, a particular cost largely resulting from that policy.